2017 Biggish Data Presentation, Home Performance Coalition Conference, Nashville, TN

Peter Troast, Energy Circle

HPC National Conference, Nashville

March 20, 2017

Biggish Data: 7 Years of Facts on Home Performance

10/19/15

Founder/CEO of Energy Circle

Linked In: Peter Troast

Twitter: @EnergyCircle

G+: Energy Circle

Facebook: Energy Circle

Volunteer/Pro Bono

Efficiency First

Home Performance Project

Home Performance Coalition

1000 Home Challenge

Mallett Deep Energy Retrofit

2

Peter Troast

10/19/15

10

THE BIG PICTURE: THROUGH GOOGLE TRENDS

158 MILLION STRONG ON FACEBOOK

HOW PEOPLE BUY HOME PERFORMANCE

CURRENT STATE OF GOOGLE SEARCH—IMPACT

ONLINE REVIEW LANDSCAPE

SEASONAL TRIGGERS AND EVENTS

HEALTHY HOME DEMAND—WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR

STATE OF MOBILE

HOME PERFORMANCE INDUSTRY WEBSITE STRENGTH

CONVERSION: WHY IT MATTERS & WHAT WE’RE LEARNING

4

What We’ll Discuss

1

23

456

7

89

10/19/15

Mother Google (Trends & Search)

Mashup of 390+ High Performance Building Businesses builders/remodelers, raters, auditors, architects, HP contractors, HVAC, non-profits

23.2 Million Web Visitors

Paid Search Results 64,000 Tracked Search Terms in Home Performance, HVAC

Select Contractor Performance (Anonymized)

Facebook Interests

Peter’s Opinion

5

Data Sources

LIES DAMNED LIES

STATISTICS

GOOGLE TRENDS: WHAT IT TELLS US ABOUT HOME

PERFORMANCE

10/19/15 8

Learning from Google Search

3/20/17

Google Trends shows how often a particular search-term is

entered relative to the total search-volume across a region.

9

3/20/17 10

Home Performance

3/20/17 11

Home Performance & Energy Audit

3/20/17 12

Home Performance/Audit in Context

3/20/17 17

Fading Green?

10/19/15 18

Wither Energy Star Homes?

3/20/17 19

Net Zero vs Passive House (topics)

3/20/17 20

Net Zero, Passive House, Green Building

3/20/17 21

“skate to where the puck is going to be”

3/20/17 22

Healthy Home vs IAQ

3/20/17 23

The Magic of Whole House

FACEBOOK

158.4 MILLION STRONG (US Users)

10/19/15 25

A Stunning (and Scary) Dataset

Interests Ventilation Sick Bldg Syndrome Mold Growth Radon Mitigation SEER ASHRAE Handbook R-Value SIPs HRV Allergen Thermal Comfort

Behavioral Length of Residence Recent Homebuyer New Mover Charities—Enviro Home Renovation Green Cleaners AOL email Gmail email Primarily Cash Watch Home Imp Shows

Demographic Expectant Parents Very Conservative Very Liberal Donate to Liberal Year Home Built Square Footage Home Value Life Event: Newly Moved Friends of Recently Moved Liquid Assets Net Worth

3/20/17 26

Facebook Interests Data March 2017

Green LivingClimate Change

Solar EnergyAir CoolingRetrofitting

Green BuildingSpray Foam (Insulation)

ParticulatesBuilding Science

Tankless Water HeatingBuilding Performance

Healthy HomeBlower Door

0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000

3/20/17 27

Green Living

Home Improvement

HVAC

Climate ChangeEnvironmentally Friendly

Solar Energy

Efficient Energy Use

Thermal InsulationRetrofitting

Heat Pump

Indoor Air Quality

Particulates

R-ValueASHRAE

-70% -56% -42% -28% -14% 0% 14% 28% 42% 56% 70%

39%62%

34%-57%

-7%-36%

9%27%

11%14%

70%37%

61%19%

Data from Facebook Ad Manager, collected March 2016 vs March 2017

YOY Change: Facebook Interests Volumes

HOW PEOPLE BUY HOME PERFORMANCE

(they don’t. you sell it)

10/19/15 29

Fundamentals of HP Marketing & Sales

EGIA/BPI

WHOLE HOUSE HOME PERFORMANCE

AC RepairSpray Foam Asthma Rebate

IAQ New FurnaceClimate Change Heat Pump

Sick Child

MoldCold Room

Energy Cost

MORE COMPREHENSIVE JOBS

Fujistu

3/20/17

Conversion from Single Interest to

Whole House Perspective is

Critical

30

Home Performance’s Key Success Factor

THE STATE OF THE SERP IN EARLY 2017

(search engine result page)

Pre-August 2015

Google Paid

Google Paid

Google Local 7 Pack

Organic

Google Paid

Google PaidGoogle

Local 3 Pack

Organic

Post-August 2015

Google Paid @ 4

Google Local 3 Pack

Organic

Post-February 22, 2016

Nada

A Mobile First World

3/20/17 36

More Real Estate for…Ads

3/20/17 37

Expanding Ads via Extensions

3/20/17 38

Where’s This Coming From?

$245 million/day

Google Home

Services Ad

Organic

Google Home Services Ad (beta test)

Google Home

Services Ad

Organic

Google Home Services Ad (beta test)

Solar Sunroof

Google Project Sunroof

SO ORGANIC TRAFFIC SHOULD BE DECLINING, RIGHT?

SO ORGANIC TRAFFIC SHOULD BE DECLINING, RIGHT?

NOPE

3/20/17 46

AC Centric Biz Model

3/20/17 47

Home Performance w Heat Pumps

3/20/17 48

Envelope Contractor

3/20/17 49

Insulation Contractor

3/20/17 50

HVAC/Home Performance

3/20/17 51

When Content Stops

3/20/17 54

Rise of “Near Me” Searches

3/20/17 55

Industry “Near Me” Data

Plumber

HVAC

Solar

ONLINE REVIEW LANDSCAPE (you can run but you cannot hide)

3/20/17 57

Online Reviews vs Personal Recommendation

3/20/17 59

Rising Review Prominence

3/20/17 63

Google Knowledge Graph Data

3/20/17 64

Threshold for Stars: Formerly 5, Now 1

3/20/17

PRIOR CATEGORIES

Air Conditioning Contractor Air Conditioning Repair Service Air Duct Cleaning Service Bathroom Remodeler Building Restoration Service Custom Home Builder Deck Builder Electrician Environmental Consultant Environmental Engineer Furnace Repair Service Garage Builder Handyman Heating Contractor Home Builder Home Inspector HVAC Contractor Insulation Contractor Kitchen Remodeler Siding Contractor Solar Energy Equipment Supplier Utility Contractor Window Installation Service

65

Google My Business Category ExpansionNEW CATEGORIES

General Contractor Solar Energy Company Solar Energy Contractor Solar Hot Water System Supplier Air Conditioning System Supplier Air Conditioning Store Furnace Store Heating Equipment Supplier Log Home Builder Roofing Contractor Window SupplierWindow Tinting Service

SEASONAL AND TEMPERATURE TRIGGERS

3/20/17 67

Search Volume Seasonality—Winter

Energy Furnace

Insulation Spray Foam

3/20/17 68

Search Volume Seasonality—Summer

Air Conditioner AC Repair

Radiant Barrier

3/20/17 69

The Seasonality Challenge

“Air Conditioning

Repair”

2016

2015

2014

2013

June 1March 1

3/20/17 71

Every Year is Different (National Data)

May 5 Apr 27 Apr 12 May 22June 10

3/20/17 72

Insulation: Surprisingly Unseasonal

3/20/17 73

Insulation’s Temperature Correlation

3/20/17 74

Ductless Mini Split

JulyDecember

3/20/17 75

Ductless Heat Pump Seasonality (Maine)

August AugustAugust

THE PUSH FOR IAQ & HP

WHAT ARE WE LEARNING? (caution: it’s way early)

3/20/17 77

Healthy Home Terms “Potential”

Volume how often searched for

Opportunity estimated click-through rate

Difficulty of ranking ahead of competition

= Potential combined metrics; sweet sot

3/20/17 78

Healthy Home Terms “Potential”

mold testing 75air quality testing 70home air quality test 66indoor air quality testing

63air quality test 58blower door test 57indoor air pollution 54healthy home 54volatile organic compounds

53vocs 52indoor pollution 47indoor air pollutants 45healthy home tips 40contaminants/particulates

31indoor air quality assessment

26home air health 25allergies & asthma 20

Volume how often searched for

Opportunity estimated click-through rate

Difficulty of ranking ahead of competition

= Potential combined metrics; sweet sot

3/20/17 79

Conversion Rates (to Leads)

Asthma

Mold

Air Quality

Humidity

Dust

Allergies

Dehumidifier

Moisture

0% 1.4% 2.8% 4.2% 5.6% 7%

0.5%

0.4%

0.3%

0.1%

0.3%

6.8%

0.2%

0.4%

3/20/17

indoor air quality standards the best humidity level for home air quality inspector air quality inspection what is the best level of humidity in a home how to test indoor air quality what is the best humidity level for your home normal humidity levels in a home home humidity levels chart measuring air quality what causes moisture in a house what is a good humidity level in a home how to get rid of dust in home symptoms of mold in home what is good humidity level for home what is the optimum humidity level for a home air quality check indoor air quality company how to find mold in your home home air quality testing what is the best humidity level for home ideal humidity level for home

80

Top 25 (based on Click Through Rates)

3/20/17


81


3/20/17


82


3/20/17


83


MOBILE ARMAGEDDON?

3/20/17 85

The State of Mobile Search in 2017

10/19/15

• Significant ranking penalties

• Loss of real traffic & calls

86

Implications of Mobile First

3/20/17 87

Energy Circle Network Data

Mobile Traffic

2017: 25.62% vs

2012: 8.98%

3/20/17 88

Contractor 1

Contractor 2

Contractor 3

Contractor 4

Contractor 5

Contractor 6

Contractor 7

Contractor 8

Contractor 9

Contractor 10

-60% 0% 60% 120% 180% 240% 300%

37%

80%

137%

268%

-6%

-9%

16%

150%

34%

30%

Data from Energy Circle Clients, 12 months of 2016; $4-6 Million Sales Contractors

March 2016-2017 YOY Mobile Traffic Growth

3/20/17 89

Contractor 1

Contractor 2

Contractor 3

Contractor 4

Contractor 5

Contractor 6

Contractor 7

Contractor 8

Contractor 9

Contractor 10

-60% 0% 60% 120% 180% 240% 300%

37%

80%

137%

268%

-6%

-9%

16%

150%

34%

30%

March 2016-2017 YOY Mobile Traffic Growth

Average Growth: 74% Average Lead Conversion Growth: 54%

3/20/17 90

Envelope

HVAC

HVAC

Envelope

Envelope

Envelope

HVAC

HVAC

HVAC

HVAC

-60% 0% 60% 120% 180% 240% 300%

37%

80%

137%

268%

-6%

-9%

16%

150%

34%

30%

Data from Energy Circle Clients, 12 months of 2016; $4-6 Million Sales Contractors

YOY Mobile Traffic Growth: Select Companies

HOME PERFORMANCE

WEBSITE STRENGTH

10/19/15 92

Moz Domain Authority

Authority

• An approximation of your website’s quality in the eyes of Google

• 40 Factors

Popularity (links)

Size (# Pages)

Age

Freshness (recency)

• Proven by correlation

10/19/15 93

Open Site Explorer

10/19/15 94

What Should Your Goal Be?

3/20/17 95

Domain Authority/Links Correlation

Domain Authority

Links

~400 HVAC, Insulation, HP, High Performance Build/Remod, Auditors, March 2017

3/20/17 96

Domain Authorities in HP

~400 HVAC, Insulation, HP, High Performance Build/Remod, Auditors, March 2017

CONVERSION RATE DATA (the most important metric)

3/20/17 98

LEADS / TRAFFIC

=

CONVERSION RATE

3/20/17 99

Two Choices

1. Phone

2. Form

10/19/15 100

Call Tracking is Vital

29%

71%

Web Forms

Phone Calls

10/19/15DATE

1. Lead Form 2. Phone Call 3. Chat on Website 4. Chat from Google 5. Bid Request from Google 6. Text

101

Changing Ways Prospects Contact You

10/19/15 102

Why Conversion Matters So Much

BeforeAll Web Traffic 1625

Conv Rate 7.72%

Leads 125

Lead -> Job 12%

Jobs 15

Ave Job 8500

Revenue $127,500

10/19/15 103

Why Conversion Matters So Much

Before AfterAll Web Traffic 1625 1625

Conv Rate 7.72% 9.39% +1.67 / 22%

Leads 125 153 +27

Lead -> Job 12% 12%

Jobs 15 18 +3

Ave Job 8500 8500

Revenue $127,500 $156,060 +28,560

3/20/17 104

Contractor 1

Contractor 2

Contractor 3

Contractor 4

Contractor 5

Contractor 6

Contractor 7

Contractor 8

Contractor 9

Contractor 10

Contractor 11

0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20%

6%

6.87%

8.8%

5.88%

13.11%

10.22%

9.84%

19.05%

19.47%

12.02%

10.71%

Data from Energy Circle Clients, 12 months of 2016

2016 Average Conversion Rates: Select Companies

3/20/17 105

Contractor 1Contractor 2Contractor 3Contractor 4Contractor 5Contractor 6Contractor 7Contractor 8Contractor 9

Contractor 10Contractor 11Contractor 12Contractor 13

0% 3.2% 6.4% 9.6% 12.8% 16%

4.16%2.74%

12.63%10.05%

7.88%10.58%

8.58%8.62%

8.13%9.86%

10.52%15.61%

15.12%

Data from Energy Circle Clients, 12 months of 2016

2016 Average Conversion Rates: Select Companies

10/19/15

Correlated • High % of “Brand” Searches

• Domain Authority > 20

• Volume of Reviews (esp. Google)

106

Why Do Some Sites Convert Better?

Not Correlated • Age of Website

• Age of Company

• HVAC in Origin

• Envelope in Origin

Commonalities • Contextual Calls to Action

• A/B Testing

3/20/17 107

Organic

Paid

Direct

Email

Social

Yelp

0% 3.6% 7.2% 10.8% 14.4% 18%

17.82%

1.97%

5.2%

5.57%

16.94%

9.55%

Data from 32 Energy Circle Clients, 12 months of 2015

Average Conversion Rates by Medium

*

WHO IS BUYING:

HOME PERFORMANCE

HIGH PERFORMANCE HOMES

?

3/20/17 109

DATA

10/19/15

AGE DEMOGRAPHICS

Baby Boomers—Last Home Phenomenon

Gen X (35-55 yrs)

Millennials (15-35 yrs)

110

High Performance Home Buyers

OTHER CATEGORIES

Academics

Technologists (Engineers, Medical, Technology, Software)

Upscale/Wealthy

Green/Left Leaning

Health Focused

First Home

10/19/15

AGE DEMOGRAPHICS

111

High Performance Home Buyers

OTHER CATEGORIES

Academics

Technologists (Engineers, Medical, Technology, Software)

Upscale/Wealthy

Green/Left Leaning

Health Focused

First Home

Millennials

Boomers

Gen X

10/19/15

Last-home William Overall Goal: Envisions a dream home in a beautiful location where he and his spouse can spend their retirement years living well, at low operational cost. Level of knowledge: High, but willing to take new input. He has read as much as he can and understands the basic parameters. It’s not his first time working with contractors or building a new home. If he trusts you, he’ll listen and learn. Informational Sources: Economist, local paper, reference books, trusted friends and family members, sometimes a blog or email newsletter. What he wants: A great overall result. Executive decision-making power. A source of pride and a site for family reunions, now including grandkids. Freedom from high monthly bills. The ability to enjoy retirement, travel. Motivation for efficiency: It’s a soft investment. He knows it may not pay off entirely in his own lifetime, but he can afford it. The concept of home.

Age: 62 Profession: Doctor Location: Suburbs or somewhat rural Personality: Thoughtful, active and generally social, but likes his quiet time. Home Life: William has seen his 3 kids through college. 2 of them are married and have homes of their own. The youngest has a job and her own place to live, although she has not completely solidified her finances yet. William and his spouse like to cook and go for walks together. They host a monthly revolving dinner party with about 10-12 friends, also babyboomers.

112

Personas

EGIA/BPI

QUESTIONS?

Peter Troast [email protected]

207.847.3644

mailto:[email protected]