Invent the Future (Operating Systems in 2029)

cs4414 Spring 2014University of VirginiaDavid Evans

Class 23:Invent the Future

Back to the Future II(1989, set in 2015)

Alan Kay’s Dynabook (1972)

Mechanical Dog (1939)

Operating Systems in 2029

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This Week in cs4414Today: What will happen in the next 15 yearsThursday: Project PresentationsNext Tuesday: Project Presentations

Presenting on Thursday – up to 15 minutes eachArchibald Elliott, Esteban Amas, Chun Wang, Nathan Typanski, Michael PetersonMatt Pearson-Beck, Jeff Principe, Richard Knoll, Arjun Shankar, Tanya Art, Brian WhitlowLoren FryxellEmily Seibert, Kevin Hoffman, Kristen FelsingJay Ashe, Matt Bloom, Steph Colen, Axel Tarnvik

Note: teams presenting next Tuesday will get 4 minutes each: prepare a focused presentation

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Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.

Neils BohrDet er svært at spå, især om fremtiden.

Robert Storm Petersen

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It is difficult to predict, especially about the future

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Past and Future

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Isaac Asimov(1919-1992)

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“Much effort will be put into the designing of vehicles with “Robot-brains” - vehicles that can be set for particular destinations and that will then proceed there without interference by the slow reflexes of a human driver. I suspect one of the major attractions of the 2014 fair will be rides on small roboticized cars which will maneuver in crowds at the two-foot level, neatly and automatically avoiding each other.”

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AT&T’s “You Will”

(1993-4)

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opened doors with your voicekept an eye on your home when you’re notcarried your medical history in your wallet

Security

renewed your driver’s license at a cash machinebought concert tickets from a cash machine

checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a timesent someone a fax from the beach

Commerce

learned special things from faraway placeshad a classmate who is thousands of miles away

fixed your car with a television

Education

crossed the country without directionspaid a toll without slowing down

Travel

borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to

Media Consumption

tucked your baby in from a phone boothput your heads together when you’re not together

attended a meeting in your bare feet

Communication

conducted business in a language you don’t understand

had an assistant who lived in your computer

Agents

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opened doors with your voice (6%)kept eye on your home when you’re not (20%)

carried your medical history in your wallet (20%)

Security

renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine (13%)bought concert tickets from a cash machine (37%)

checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time (13%)sent someone a fax from the beach (31%)

Commerce

learned special things from faraway places (92%)had a classmate thousands of miles away (74%)

fixed your car with a television (18%)

Education

Travel

crossed the country without directions (72%)

paid a toll without slowing down (64%)

borrowed a book from thousands of miles away (79%) watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to (96%)

Media Consumption

tucked your baby in from a phone booth (10%)put heads together when not together (87%)attended a meeting in your bare feet (71%)

Communication

conducted business in a language you don’t understand (17%)

had an assistant who lived in your computer (68%)

Agents

78 responses from class

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opened doors with your voice (6; 18)kept eye on your home when you’re not (20; 24)

carried your medical history in wallet (20; 20)

Security

renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine (13; 16)bought concert tickets from a cash machine (37; 56)

checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time (13; 11)sent someone a fax from the beach (31; 44)

Commerce

learned special things from faraway places (92; 87)had a classmate thousands of miles away (74; 73)

fixed your car with a television (18; 29)

Education

Travel

crossed the country without directions (72; 82)

paid a toll without slowing down (64; 64)

borrowed a book from thousands of miles away (79; 73) watched movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to (96; 98)

Media Consumption

tucked baby in from a phone booth (10; 58)put heads together when not together (87; 84)attended a meeting in your bare feet (71; 67)

Communication

conducted business in a language you don’t understand (17; 13)

had an assistant who lived in your computer (68; 56)

Agents

S2014; F2013

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Prediction #1Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft combined will contribute less valuable technological innovation to society in 1990-2030 than Bell Labs did in 1944-1949.

transistor (1947)

information theory,cryptography (1945) cellular telephony (1947)

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Security



Commerce



Education

Travel




Media Consumption


Communication



Agents

S2014; F2013

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Security



Commerce



Education

Travel




Media Consumption


Communication



Agents

S2014; F2013

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Security



Commerce



Education

Travel




Media Consumption


Communication



Agents

S2014; F2013

Created by Ahti Heinla, Priit Kasesalu, Jaan Tallinn (3rd years at U. of Tartu in 1994); Janus Friis (HS dropout), Niklas Zennström

First Release 2003

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Security



Commerce



Education

Travel




Media Consumption


Communication



Agents

S2014; F2013

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Security



Commerce



Education

Travel




Media Consumption


Communication



Agents

S2014; F2013

Sir Tim Berners-LeeFirst WWW Prototype at CERN 1990

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Marc AndreesenStudent at U. Illinois

NCSA Mosaic released in 1993

David Filo and Jerry YangStudents at Stanford

Yahoo 1994

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Security



Commerce



Education

Travel




Media Consumption


Communication



Agents

S2014; F2013

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Security



Commerce



Education

Travel




Media Consumption


Communication



Agents

S2014; F2013

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Security



Commerce



Education

Travel




Media Consumption


Communication



Agents

S2014; F2013

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TRANSIT/NAVSAT (1964)

Probably first satellite that could be reprogrammed!

48 bytes of working memory

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GPS (10 sats): used in 1990-1 Gulf WarFirst Garmin: $2500

GPS (24 sats) Operational 19951996: Dual-Use Directive

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Security



Commerce



Education

Travel




Media Consumption


Communication



Agents

S2014; F2013

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amazon.com opens: July 1995

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opened doors with your voice (6; 18)kept eye on your home when you’re not (20; 24)carried your medical history in wallet (20; 20)

Security



Commerce



Education

Travel




Media Consumption


Communication



Agents

S2014; F2013

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Cost to sequence genome“Moore’s Law”

Aug 2001

Mar 2002

Oct 2002

May 2003

Dec 2003

Jul 2004

Feb 2005

Sep 2005

Apr 2006

Nov 2006

Jun 2007

Jan 2008

Aug 2008

Mar 2009

Oct 2009

May 2010

Dec 2010

Jul 2011

Feb 2012

Sep 2012

Apr 2013

Nov 2013

$1,000

$10,000

$100,000

$1,000,000

$10,000,000

$100,000,000

Predicting steady technology improvement is easy!

Aug 2001

Mar 2002

Oct 2002

May 2003

Dec 2003

Jul 2004

Feb 2005

Sep 2005

Apr 2006

Nov 2006

Jun 2007

Jan 2008

Aug 2008

Mar 2009

Oct 2009

May 2010

Dec 2010

Jul 2011

Feb 2012

Sep 2012

Apr 2013

Nov 2013

$1,000

$10,000

$100,000

$1,000,000

$10,000,000

$100,000,000

Cost to sequence genome“Moore’s Law”

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Human Genome Sequencing Using Unchained Base Reads on Self-Assembling DNA Nanoarrays. Radoje Drmanac, Andrew B. Sparks, Matthew J. Callow, Aaron L. Halpern, Norman L. Burns, Bahram G. Kermani, Paolo Carnevali, Igor Nazarenko, Geoffrey B. Nilsen, George Yeung, Fredrik Dahl, Andres Fernandez, Bryan Staker, Krishna P. Pant, Jonathan Baccash, Adam P. Borcherding, Anushka Brownley, Ryan Cedeno, Linsu Chen, Dan Chernikoff, Alex Cheung, Razvan Chirita, Benjamin Curson, Jessica C. Ebert, Coleen R. Hacker, Robert Hartlage, Brian Hauser, Steve Huang, Yuan Jiang, Vitali Karpinchyk, Mark Koenig, Calvin Kong, Tom Landers, Catherine Le, Jia Liu, Celeste E. McBride, Matt Morenzoni, Robert E. Morey, Karl Mutch, Helena Perazich, Kimberly Perry, Brock A. Peters, Joe Peterson, Charit L. Pethiyagoda, Kaliprasad Pothuraju, Claudia Richter, Abraham M. Rosenbaum, Shaunak Roy, Jay Shafto, Uladzislau Sharanhovich, Karen W. Shannon, Conrad G. Sheppy, Michel Sun, Joseph V. Thakuria, Anne Tran, Dylan Vu, Alexander Wait Zaranek, Xiaodi Wu, Snezana Drmanac, Arnold R. Oliphant, William C. Banyai, Bruce Martin, Dennis G. Ballinger, George M. Church, Clifford A. Reid. Science, January 2010.

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/327/5961/78?ijkey=2cSK/YvTtuDSU&keytype=ref


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Human Genome Sequencing Using Unchained Base Reads on Self-Assembling DNA Nanoarrays. Radoje Drmanac, Andrew B. Sparks, Matthew J. Callow, Aaron L. Halpern, Norman L. Burns, Bahram G. Kermani, Paolo Carnevali, Igor Nazarenko, Geoffrey B. Nilsen, George Yeung, Fredrik Dahl, Andres Fernandez, Bryan Staker, Krishna P. Pant, Jonathan Baccash, Adam P. Borcherding, Anushka Brownley, Ryan Cedeno, Linsu Chen, Dan Chernikoff, Alex Cheung, Razvan Chirita, Benjamin Curson, Jessica C. Ebert, Coleen R. Hacker, Robert Hartlage, Brian Hauser, Steve Huang, Yuan Jiang, Vitali Karpinchyk, Mark Koenig, Calvin Kong, Tom Landers, Catherine Le, Jia Liu, Celeste E. McBride, Matt Morenzoni, Robert E. Morey, Karl Mutch, Helena Perazich, Kimberly Perry, Brock A. Peters, Joe Peterson, Charit L. Pethiyagoda, Kaliprasad Pothuraju, Claudia Richter, Abraham M. Rosenbaum, Shaunak Roy, Jay Shafto, Uladzislau Sharanhovich, Karen W. Shannon, Conrad G. Sheppy, Michel Sun, Joseph V. Thakuria, Anne Tran, Dylan Vu, Alexander Wait Zaranek, Xiaodi Wu, Snezana Drmanac, Arnold R. Oliphant, William C. Banyai, Bruce Martin, Dennis G. Ballinger, George M. Church, Clifford A. Reid. Science, January 2010.



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opened doors with your voice (6; 18)kept eye on your home when you’re not (20; 24)carried your medical history in wallet (20; 20)

Security



Commerce



Education

Travel




Media Consumption


Communication



Agents

S2014; F2013

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Prediction #2

Within 15 years, at least 95% of the world’s adult population will have done everything on the “You Will” list (or something comparable but much better).

Note: this implies end to world poverty!

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Hans Rosling

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1948

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1994

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“Today, of Americans officially designated as ‘poor’, 99 percent have electricity, running water, flush toilets, and a refrigerator; 95 percent have a television, 88 percent a telephone, 71 percent a car and 70 percent air conditioning. Cornelius Vanderbilt had none of these.”

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Pace of Progress

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/11/innovations-list/309536/#list

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-4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 20000

10

20

30

40

50

Year of InventionRank on List

Wheel (~4000 BC)

S ::= NP VNP ::= N and NP

Language (-300 000)Cooking (-400 000)

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Last Millennium1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 19000

10

20

30

40

50

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Last Millennium1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 19000

10

20

30

40

50

#1: Printing Press

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Last Millennium1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 19000

10

20

30

40

50

#1: Printing Press #2: Electricity

Nikola Tesla

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Last Millennium1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 19000

10

20

30

40

50

#1: Printing Press #2: Electricity#4: Semiconductor

#16: Personal Computer

#9: Internet

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Prediction #3Over the next 15 years, there will be inventions that change the world at least as much as the semiconductor, personal computer, and Internet did over the last 30.

Drone delivery? Printing food? 3D fabrication? AI?

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http://www.cs.virginia.edu/cs200/readings/tyson.pdf

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“If you’re going to use your computer to simulate some phenomenon in the universe, then it only becomes interesting if you change the scale of that phenomenon by at least a factor of 10. … For a 3D simulation, an increase by a factor of 10 in each of the three dimensions increases your volume by a factor of 1000.”

What is the asymptotic running time for simulating the universe?

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Astrophysics and Moore’s Law

Simulating universe is (n3)Moore’s “law”: computing power doubles every 18 months

Tyson: to understand something new about universe, need to scale by 10x

How long does it take to know twice as much about the universe?

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Will there be any mystery left in the Universe when you die?

15 years ≈1000x computing power ≈ double understanding

“There’s an unwritten rule in astrophysics: your computer simulation must end before you die.”

Neil deGrasse Tyson

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Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former.

Albert Einstein

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The Endless Golden AgeGolden Age – period in which knowledge/quality of something improves exponentiallyAt any point in history, half of what is known was discovered in the previous 15 years!

Moore’s law today, but other advances previously (and tomorrow): telescopes, photocopiers, clocks, agriculture, drone delivery, personal assistant, etc.

Accumulating 4% per year => doubling every 15 yearsAccumulating 4% per month => 1000x every 15 years

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Log

scal

e: st

raig

ht li

ne =

exp

onen

tial c

urve

!

Koomey’s Law:Assessing Trends in the Electrical Efficiency of Computation Over Time

“Any physical quantity that’s growing exponentially predicts a disaster, you simply can’t go beyond certain major limits.”

Gordon Moore (2007)

http://download.intel.com/pressroom/pdf/computertrendsrelease.pdf




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An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century-it will be more like 20,000 years of progress… Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to the Singularity — technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and non-biological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.

Ray Kurzweil

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Sustainability is a very depressing goal for a scientist/engineer – we should be striving for progress!1. share what we have with the rest of the world (by

lowering costs)2. invent new things that improve the quality,

interconnectedness, and length of human life

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Golden Agesor

Golden Catastrophes?

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Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus, Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798

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The great and unlooked for discoveries that have taken place of late years in natural philosophy, the increasing diffusion of general knowledge from the extension of the art of printing, the ardent and unshackled spirit of inquiry that prevails throughout the lettered and even unlettered world, … have all concurred to lead many able men into the opinion that we were touching on a period big with the most important changes, changes that would in some measure be decisive of the future fate of mankind.

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I think I may fairly make two postulata. – First, that food is necessary to the existence of

man. – Secondly, that the passion between the sexes is

necessary and will remain….Assuming then my postulata, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio.

Food per person = (n) / (kn) approaches 0

Malthus’ Fallacy?

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He forgot how he started:

“The great and unlooked for discoveries that have taken place of late years in natural philosophy, the increasing diffusion of general knowledge from the extension of the art of printing, the ardent and unshackled spirit of inquiry that prevails throughout the lettered and even unlettered world…”

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Golden Age of Food ProductionAgriculture is an “endless golden age” field

Increasing knowledge of farming, weather forecasting, plant domestication, preservatives, genetic engineering, pest repellants, distribution channels, etc.

production from the same land increases 2%/year

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2006: 10,000 pounds per acreMichael Pollan’s The Omnivore’s Dilemma

1906: < 1,000 pounds per acre

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Corn YieldN

ote:

Log

axi

s!

http://www.agbioforum.org/v2n1/v2n1a10-ruttan.htm

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https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=corn+yield+china+vs.+us








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The 2014 fair will feature an Algae Bar at which “mock-turkey” and “pseudosteak” will be served. It won’t be bad at all (if you can dig up those premium prices), but there will be considerable psychological resistance to such an innovation.

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Green Revolution

Norman Borlaug (1914-2009)

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At a time when doom-sayers were hopping around saying everyone was going to starve, Norman was working. He moved to Mexico and lived among the people there until he figured out how to improve the output of the farmers. So that saved a million lives. Then he packed up his family and moved to India, where in spite of a war with Pakistan, he managed to introduce new wheat strains that quadrupled their food output. So that saved another million. You get it? But he wasn’t done. He did the same thing with a new rice in China. He’s doing the same thing in Africa - as much of Africa as he’s allowed to visit. When he won the Nobel Prize in 1970, they said he had saved a billion people. That's BILLION! BUH! And most of them were a different race from him. Norman is the greatest human being, and you probably never heard of him.” Penn Jillette (Penn & Teller)

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I think I may fairly make two postulata. – First, that food is necessary to the existence of

man. – Secondly, that the passion between the sexes is

necessary and will remain….Assuming then my postulata, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio.

What about his other postulate?

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Well, the earth’s population is now about 3,000,000,000 and is doubling every 40 years. If this rate of doubling goes unchecked, then a World-Manhattan is coming in just 500 years. All earth will be a single choked Manhattan by A.D. 2450 and society will collapse long before that!

There are only two general ways of preventing this: (1) raise the death rate; (2) lower the birth rate. Undoubtedly, the world of 2014 will have agreed on the latter method.

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“In 2014, there is every likelihood that the world population will be 6,500,000,000 and the population of the United States will be 350,000,000. Boston-to-Washington, the most crowded area of its size on the earth, will have become a single city with a population of over 40,000,000.”

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“In 2014, there is every likelihood that the world population will be 6,500,000,000 and the population of the United States will be 350,000,000.”

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Advances in science (birth control), medicine (higher life expectancy), education, and societal and political changes (e.g., regulation in China) have reduced k (it is < 1 in many countries now!)

82http://ourfiniteworld.com/2012/03/12/world-energy-consumption-since-1820-in-charts/

Upcoming Malthusian

Catastrophes?

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“Cornucopian View”Few resources are really finiteAll scientific things have endless golden ages

Knowledge accumulatesKnowledge makes it easier to acquire more

(We hope) Human ingenuity and economics and politics will continue solve problems before they become catastrophes

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Prediction #4The vast majority of jobs people have today will be automated, and the fraction of the world’s population who can produce something of economic value (i.e., that cannot be done better and cheaper by machines) will plummet.

Automated Mall Cop

Automated Warehouse

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Will the elimination of tedious human work cause mass riots or mass rejoicing?

Luddites, 1812

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Are Software Engineers Safe?Year Founded Employees Revenues

Instagram 2010 13Twitter 2006 2000 $0.3BFacebook 2004 5800 $1.2BGoogle 1998 46000 $50BeBay 1995 27700 $14BMicrosoft 1975 100518 $78BHP 1939 331800 $120BIBM 1911 435000 $104B

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Even so, mankind will suffer badly from the disease of boredom, a disease spreading more widely each year and growing in intensity. This will have serious mental, emotional and sociological consequences, and I dare say that psychiatry will be far and away the most important medical specialty in 2014. The lucky few who can be involved in creative work of any sort will be the true elite of mankind, for they alone will do more than serve a machine.

Indeed, the most somber speculation I can make about A.D. 2014 is that in a society of enforced leisure, the most glorious single word in the vocabulary will have become work!

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America will always do the right thingbut only after exhausting all other options.

Charles Vest’s slide idea!

Winston Churchill

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Charge

The best way to predict the future is to invent it.

— Alan Kay

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Invent the Future (Operating Systems in 2029)