THEORY OF CHANGE PLANNING SESSION

Brian Lamb OBE

@ WANDSWORTH ADVICE23 JULY 2014 WANDSWORTHADVICE.ORG.UK

The Issue

Contrary to Marx’s famous critique that philosophers have

only sought to interpret the world not to change it –

advocates have too often sought to change the world without first

interpreting it.

“A theory of change clearly expresses the relationships between actions and hoped for results, and could be described as a roadmap of the strategies and belief systems that make positive change in the lives of individuals and the community.”

THEORY OF CHANGE

Logic Model

• Theory of Change models build from basic Logic Models. • Logic Models form the basis of most project management

programmes. • Logic models illustrate program components, and creating one

helps stakeholders clearly identify outcomes, inputs and activities.

• They are helpful for breaking down the basic components of a plan and are especially useful where there is a know relationship with an action and its consequence.

• They often follow a format similar to this;

Logic Model

Logic Model

Theory of Change

Social Theories

Theory of Change and Planning • Theory of Change Models aim test why you select the activities

you do and links between this and the outcomes you expect. • They pose more clearly what the aim and underlying

assumptions of advocacy approaches are, their interrelationship to other parts of the political system and stakeholders.

• They are particularly helpful where there are multiple teams involved in the production and delivery of plans.

• They also help to deliver clarity about the respective roles of different teams in the process and provide a good basis for evaluation.

Theory of Change• Theories of Change link outcomes and activities to explain HOW

and WHY a strategy leads to those changes. • It is therefore more complex and rich than logic models and more

suited to advocacy campaigns. • Advocacy campaigns are complex as they have to select from a

number of different potential strategies and make assumptions about why something changes.

• There are many different ways change can be attempted and a Theory of Change provides a process for testing out assumptions and deciding on what will be bring about the desired change.

• Advocacy is trying to align research evidence, with the appropriate campaign and advocacy interventions to achieve the influence to secure the change they need.

What are the Theory of Change Steps?

1. Stating a clear aim-the final impact you need your advocacy to have;

2. Mapping activities to achieve your campaign aim-usually in reverse order the impact first;

3. Mapping Outcomes and how to get there – using ‘so that’ chains to ensure the links between activities and outcomes are understood and in place;

4. Understanding how social change happens and aligning that with your selected activities-Outcome mapping;

5. Ensuring that Capacity of the organisation to achieve change;

6. Agree outcome Measures and Assumptions.

Definitions-what’s in a word? • Impact-the ultimate effect on the lives of those you seeking

change for• Strategies-the overall grouping of types of activities that you

judge will lead to the change you are seeking• Outcomes-significant changes that lead to the final impact and

a precondition of them • Outputs the specific results of work programmes designed to

achieve your outcomes• Activities-the work you do to achieve those outputs• Inputs the resources you deploy to be able to undertake the

activities to achieve the outputs

Testing your theory of change • When you look at the total picture, do you believe that

the theory makes sense? • Do the stages make sense as the logical steps toward

the long-term outcome-can we give our world famous impression of what they look like?

• Can we be able to bring about the outcomes at the levels we have predicted?

• Is there anything going on in the real world that may make it difficult to get this theory off the ground the way we’ve planned it?

• What assumptions are you making about the world-your understanding of what needs to change?

Testing your Theory of Change • Is this theory of change PLAUSIBLE? Have we

created a compelling story about the pathway of change that would lead to the long-term goal ?

• Is this theory of change FEASIBLE? Do we have the capacities and resources to implement the strategies that would be required to produce the outcomes?

• Is this theory MEASURABLE? Have we specified how success will be measured clearly enough that we can recognize progress? Are there indicators for each outcome in a way that a researcher or evaluator can use?

WORKED EXAMPLES

So that Chain

Change LawChange Public

AttitudeChange Policy and PracticeS

trat

egie

sIn

puts

Out

puts

Out

com

es

Impa

ctState your strategies-the really key ways by

which you hope to bring about the change

you are seeking

Describe the outputs from that work you

expect to happen as a result.

State your final impact here-e.g changes to

people lives or the final changes you are

seeking

Theory of Change Mapping

Describe the outcomes from that work you expect to happen as a result.

Agree the measures of your Impact and

Outcomes

State your Activities-the specific work you

will undertake to implement the

strategies

Contact Details

Brian.publicaffairs@gmail.com