ترسیم استراتژی زنجیره تأمین

دکتر هاشم معزز(هیأت علمی دانشگاه تهران)

جواد شعبانی

فروردین ١٣٩۵

A supply chain is actually a complex and dynamic

supply and demand network. A supply chain is a

system of organizations, people, activities,

information, and resources involved in moving a

product or service from supplier to customer.

Supply Chain

زنجیره تأمین

منابع کاال

توزیع

توزیع کنندگان

تأمین کنندگانهمکاران

استراتژی زنجیره تأمین موجودی

مایکل پورتر در سال١٩٩۶ عنوان به را استراتژی انجام استوار، جایگاهی ای شایسته جعل و مبادله از روابط در بین فعالیت ها

تعریف کرد.

استراتژی زنجیره تأمین موجودی

سه شکل از استراتژی زنجیره تأمین موجودی به صورت زیر بیان میشوند:

مدل فیشر و متغیرهای مربوط به آن 1.

.2 lean و agile پارادایم های

کشش، رانش و سیستمهای کشش و رانش3.

١‐ مدل فیشر و متغیرهای مربوط به آن

استراتژی زنجیره تأمین موجودی

supply lead time variability

انواع کاالتغییر تقاضا

Marshall Fisher

محصوالت تابعچرخه عمر زیاد تنوع محدود

تقاضای قابل پیشبینی و پایدار

رقابت زیادحاشیه سود کم

زنجیره تأمین فیزیکی کارا

اصالح ظرفیت استفاده •

ایجاد مقیاس های اقتصادی •

حذف اتالف موجودی انبار •

حذف فعالیتهایی که ارزش افزوده ایجاد نمیکند •

فعالیت هایی در راستای کاهش هزینه•

زنجیره تأمین فیزیکی کارا

چرخه عمر کوتاه تنوع زیاد

تقاضای غیرقابلپیشبینی

پایداری پایینحاشیه سود باال

زنجیره تأمین تقاضای بازار

محصوالت نوآورانه

سرعت •

انعطاف پذیری •

دردسترس بودن محصول •

تجلی دقت سفارش در ساخت محصول •

قابلیت تنظیم توسط مشتری •

قرار دادن محدودیت های استراتژیک در موجودی کاال•

زنجیره تأمین تقاضای بازار

Hau L. Lee

عدم اطمینان های عرضه و تقاضا

زنجیره تأمین کارا برای محصوالت تابع همراه با عدم اطمینان تقاضای پایین و فرآیندی پایدار 1.

همراه با عدم اطمینان عرضه پایین

زنجیره تأمین پاسخگو برای محصوالت نوآورانه همراه با عدم اطمینان تقاضای باال اما 2.

فرآیندی پایدار همراه با عدم اطمینان عرضه پایین

زنجیره تأمین ریسک‐محدود برای محصوالت تابع و فرآیند روبه جلو همراه با عدم اطمینان 3.

عرضه باال

زنجیره تأمین agile برای محصوالت نوآورانه و فرآیند روبه جلو4.

Alignment

Adaptability

AgilityGreat

SupplyChains

پاسخگویی سریع به تغییرات

عرضه و تقاضا

وفق دادن نسبت به جابجایی های

ساختاری در بازارها و اصالحات شبکه

های عرضه در استراتژی ها، محصوالت و تکنولوژی ها

همتراز کردن همه اعضای زنجیره تأمین در هزینه ها، ریسک و سود

2- Lean and agile paradigms

Lean manufacturing is used with level scheduling upstream from the decoupling point.

Agile paradigm is adopted to meet market demand downstream from the decoupling point

Adopt lean or agile paradigms depends on the market requirements.

Lean paradigm favors low cost while agile paradigm favors high availability and responsiveness to changes in product mix and volume.

special or standard product

long or short lead time

volatile or stable demand

Three feasible supply chain strategies may be formulated

✦ Lean strategy with offshoring for standard products with predictable demand

✦ Agile strategy with home manufacturing for special products with volatile demand

✦ Quick response strategy for top-up standard products with unexpected demand requirements for color, size or volume

Proposed three supply chain designs:

lean, agile and hybrid based on product

characteristics, respectively,

standard, innovative and hybrid

3- Push, pull and push-pull systems

Push supply chains

Production and inventory decisions are based on long-term forecasts

of market demand

Pull supply chains

Production and inventory decisions are made in response to real

time market demand so that manufacturing firms can hold minimum inventory and

only produce to order

Push-pull system

The inbound supply chain, raw materials, and component

inventories, are push systems, while the outbound supply chain is a pull system

based on customer orders

Procurement lead times, supplier relationships, and

other inbound supply chain factors affect raw material inventory, while outbound supply chain

factors, such as forecasts of market

demand and reliability of distribution, affect

finished goods inventory.

Theoretical framework •competition between rivals within the industry

•threat of new entrants – defense against threats of new rivals entering the industry

•threat of substitutes – defense against the threat of potential customers using substitute products

•supplier power – the power of suppliers in negotiating and maintaining raw material supply parameters

•buyer power – the power of buyers in determining finished goods availability and supply parameters.

Porter’s Five Forces Model

Porter’s three generic business strategies

Summary of research framework

Data collection and measurement of variables

Reported data include dollar values of inventories at all three stages (raw material, work-in-process and finished goods

inventories), total cost of raw materials, value added, and total value of shipments, the number of employees, manufacturing hours, payroll costs and other operational information.

تحلیل های دسته جمعی و نتایج

تحلیل های دسته جمعی برای آزمودن مشخصاتصنعت ساخت و نمایش مقدار ساخت استفاده میشود.

“The Herfindahl index (also known as Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, or HHI) is a

measure of the size of firms in relation to the

industry and an indicator of the amount of competition among them.”

An H below 100 indicates a highly competitive industry.

An H below 1,500 indicates an unconcentrated industry.

Analysis of Cluster1(low RAW, low FG)

Food:

Finished goods inventory averaging 17 days of supply

Raw material inventory averaging 30 days of supply

Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI) of 102

Petroleum and coal:

HHI of 735

Low finished goods inventory

Transportation equipment(automobile)

HHI of 1,449

Has a complex supply chain

Old models are subject to deep discounts at dealerships

Analysis of Cluster2 (high RAW, low FG)

Fabricated metal product:

As revenue is volatile due to changing demand, industry may be better off keeping low finished goods inventories

HHI of 9

Computer electronics:

Short product life cycles

HHI of 137

Electrical equipment:

HHI of 105

To control rising material costs the industry may need to save procurement costs through large volume purchases, which could lead to a relatively high level of raw material inventory

Furniture industry:

HHI of 62

To reduce procurement costs the furniture industry has established long-term relationships with key suppliers and achieved cost savings for bulk purchases leading to a relatively high level of raw material inventory

Analysis of Cluster3 (low RAW, high FG)

Textile mills :

Sluggish demand leads to low inventory turns for finished products

HHI of 160

Wood product industry :

HHI of 38

This industry has experienced sluggish growths, resulted in a high level of finished goods inventory

Primary metal industry:

HHI of 181

Downstream customers are automobile manufacturing and commercial construction. The demand has been volatile due to economic uncertainties in the past five years

Analysis of Cluster4 (high RAW, high FG)

Beverage and tobacco industries:

The demand is directly affected by consumer consumption

Raw materials are inexpensive because of ample supply and easy processing, and holding a high level of raw material inventory is preferred in the maintenance of a stable supply

HHI of 555

Note that beverage and tobacco industry shifted from Clusters 4 to 2 over 2006-2008 due to reduced finished goods inventory over this period. This shift was caused by an increased demand for tobacco when people needed to relieve stress during economic recessions as indicated by layoffs, foreclosures, and tumbling

stock prices.

thanks for your attention