Solving Problems using Current and

Future Reality Trees

Starting at 1845 – grab some Pizza!

Introductions

Laz Allen Suzanne Morrison

https://www.linkedin.com/in/suzannem

@SuzanneMorrison

https://www.linkedin.com/in/lazallen

@LazAllen

Agile Coaches at Skyscanner

Objectives

+ PRACTISE!!

“Any improvement is a change, but not every change is an improvement”

Eli Goldratt

Goldratt’s Books

FOCUS & LEVERAGE

For continuous improvement

Other References

Theory of Constraints

1. Optimise the whole system, not individual parts

2. Optimise for throughput of value before work in progress and cost

3. There will be ONE (or few) constraint, cause, tension causing most of the problems

TOC Thinking Processes

3 Questions

To solve a problem you need to ask 3 Questions

1. What to change?

2. What to change to?

3. How to change?

Goldratt’s TOC Thinking Processes

Goldratt’s TOC Thinking Processes

Frustrations are high

Current Reality Trees(what to change)

UDEs

Undesirable Effects (UDEs)

Undesirable Effects (UDEs)

“An UDE is essentially the first indication you have that something might beamiss in the system. It is something that really exists and is negative on its ownmerits.” – William Dettmer, The Logical Thinking Processes, 2007

UDEs

Examples of UDEs

“Employee morale is low”

“Attrition is increasing”

“We’re not getting our products in front of the customer fast enough”

“Decreasing profit”

“We’re not hiring fast enough”

UDEs Exercise

Exercise – Undesirable Effects (UDEs)

Read the description of the “Team from Hell”. What undesirable effects do you see here?

5 minutes – We’ll split into groups to brainstorm then come back to share

Current Reality Trees

Current Reality Trees (CRTs)

Undesirable Effects (UDEs)

Root Causes

Intermediate Effects

Current Reality Trees

CRT – Example

Current Reality Trees

CRT – Example

Current Reality Trees

CRT – Example

The speakers have water in them

Current Reality Trees

CRT – Example

The speakers have water in them

Current Reality Trees

CRT – Example

The speakers have water in them

CRT Exercise

CRT Exercise

We’re going to revisit the “Team from Hell” example from earlier.

Build the CRT using the information in the handout

• Start from the UDEs and work your way down.• Once you’ve built the tree, practice reading a branch from top to

bottom and from bottom to top.

Team from Hell

Example Tree

Skyscanner Example

Facilitation – things to consider

Facilitation

• Size of the group• Blame• The power of reading the tree aloud

Correlation v Cause and Effect

Correlation vs Cause and Effect

Correlation v Cause and Effect

Source - http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

Future Reality Trees(what to change to)

Injections

Injections

“An injection is a new condition or action that does not exist in the current reality. It is something you must make happen in order for the future reality to unfold the way you want it to”

Future Reality Trees

Future Reality Trees

Desirable Effects

Injections

Intermediate Effects

FRT Exercise

FRT Exercise

Get back into your groups and look at the CRT from earlier.

(1) What would the desirable effects be in the FRT?(2) Can you think about any possible injections to address the root causes?

Team from Hell

5 minutes – We’ll split into groups to brainstorm then come back to share

Negative Branches

Negative Branches

New Injection

Negative Branch Exercise

Negative Branch Exercise

Think about one of your injections and write down a possible negative branch for that injection (no need to trim it). Team

from Hell

Quick Quiz

Quick Quiz

Write down the answers to the following questions:

Q1. What tool should you use to decide what to change?a) Transition treeb) Current Reality Treec) Future Reality Treed) Negative branch reservation

Q3. What is an Injection?a) A solutionb) A policyc) A possible solutiond) Something painful

Q4. Which 2 statements are TRUE?a) CRTs should have at least 6 layersb) The arrows on a CRT represent cause and effectc) The ellipse can be used to represent an AND

between two or more causes and an effectd) UDEs are negative things that have happened in

the past

Q2. How should you start building a CRT?a) Start with the biggest problem and work downwardsb) List all the undesirable effects (UDEs)c) Map out the flowd) Think of the worst thing that can happen

Quick Quiz

Quick Quiz - AnswersTa da!

Q1. What tool should you use to decide what to change?a) Transition treeb) Current Reality Treec) Future Reality Treed) Negative branch reservation

Q3. What is an Injection?a) A solutionb) A policyc) A possible solutiond) Something painful

Q4. Which 2 statements are TRUE?a) CRTs should have at least 6 layersb) The arrows on a CRT represent cause and effectc) The ellipse can be used to represent an AND

between two or more causes and an effectd) UDEs are negative things that have happened in

the past

Q2. How should you start building a CRT?a) Start with the biggest problem and work downwardsb) List all the undesirable effects (UDEs)c) Map out the flowd) Think of the worst thing that can happen

A Useful Tool

Questions?

Questions?

Feedback Form

Thinking Processes References

The Eli Goldratt Business Novels

The Logical Thinking Process (H. William Dettmer)

Rolling Rocks Downhill (Clark Ching)

Online Guide to Implementing TOC

Useful blog on TOC and Lean

TOC TV – online videos teaching TOC topics

Nothing you ever do might make the slightest difference

Goldratt.com

Next Month’s Meetup

• Hosts: Amazon• Lightning Talks • Tuesday 18th

Please only RSVP if you expect to make it!