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YEAR 2018 EFOW PRACTICE “IN FOCUS”
Jan 2018
“In Focus”
2015-2018 Global Change, New Energy Realities, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030
1. Where are we?
2. What is going well? What deserves our
attention?
3. What invitation do we see for year 2018 and
beyond, and where we can step-up and better
organize ourselves for impact and scale.
THE WORLD IN YEAR 2015
3
PROF. JEFFREY SACHS- EARTH INSTITUTE: THE AGE OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
1/20/2018
Clickable Video Presentation
Clickable Presentation
2015 YEAR OF ENERGY, CLIMATE CHANGE AGREEMENT AND THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 2030 AGENDA
UN FCCC COP21 PARIS (3) - PARIS CLIMATE CHANGE AGREEMENT
POPE FRANCIS AND HIS ENCYCLICAL LAUDATO SI! – ON POVERTY, PEOPLE AND THE ENVIRONMENT: CARE FOR CREATION
TRANSBIBLICA
10
LIVING PLANET REPORTS
G7 AND THE NEXT 100 YEARS
CLUB OF ROME- GRAHAM MAXTON
AGE OF DISCOVERY-NAVIGATING THE RISK AND REWARDS OF OUR NEW AGE RENAISSANCE.IAN GOLDIN- OXFORD MARTIN SCHOOL
13
YEAR 2017 – A NEW STYLED PRESIDENT TRUMP WITH EXECUTIVE ORDERS
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COP23 in Bonn: Organizing for delivery of the Paris Agreement
COP23 IN BONN: ORGANIZING FOR DELIVERY OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT (2) : “BETWEEN HOPE AND DESPAIR”
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UNFCCC REPORT ON CLIMATE RISKS
20
IEA’S YEAR 2017 ANALYSIS OF HOW RENEWABLES ARE GROWING
YEAR 2040 EXPECTATIONS VS. GOALS
IEA WEO2017
(and international Oil & Gas community)
80 : 20
UN FCCC
(& Science Community)
20 : 80
23
THE STATE OF OUR UN SDGS (2017)
2017 IMF ECONOMIC GLOBAL GROWTH FORECAST: “ALL TIME HIGH”
YEAR 2017 IN 12 CHARTS (WORLD BANK)
27
TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION VS JOBS AND SOCIAL JUSTICE
4TH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION ILO 2017: WORLD JOBLESS
OCEAN PLASTIC CLEAN-UP
29
DAVOS 2018- “CREATING A SHARED FUTURE IN A FRACTURED WORLD”
• The global context today has changed dramatically: geostrategic fractures have re-emerged on multiple fronts with wide-ranging political, economic and social consequences.
• “Our collective inability to secure inclusive growth and preserve our scarce resources puts multiple global systems at risk simultaneously. Our first response must be to develop new models for cooperation that are not based on narrow interests but on the destiny of humanity as a whole," said Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum.
30
SG GUTERRES: RED ALERT AND 12 POINTS
20.01.2018
Geopolitical shifts and re-alignments
• Economic and finance system change and fundamentals
• A new technological era: 4th Industrial Revolution.
• Global production systems & the rise of new (multinational) corporations
• Social Changes (network economies), and the quest for social wealth & justice
• Planetary boundaries/ Resource Scarcities
• Demographic change and migration/ Changing labour markets
Global Change
33
2014 2030-2050
7 Billion People
9 BillionPeople
90 trillion USD
economy
180-210 trillion USD
225 million oil eq/day(15 TW)
500- 750 millionoil eq/day
(55 TW)
400 ppm CO2 and Carbon Budget consumed for 2 degrees/ 21st century
??? ppm CO2 and Climate Change Effects
BRIC:It’s our time. Let us grow our Economies and take care of
our peopleYou’ll fix whatever you want to
fix!
The West:“If you do as I have done
it will be a mess.”
Let us all change- rapidlyLet’s secure our nation,
people and planet
Emerging:Will there be enough for
us?Can i afford it?
Who will deliver it to me?
The poor:When will we see electricity and get
mobility?
Opec and GasPec:You need us!
We can deliver your needs!What is all that fuzz about
Availability and climate change?
2/1/2012ENERGY FOR ONE WORLD- ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
PATHWAYS
UN
Regional Blocks
Countries
Cities
Communities
Companies and Institutes
Co-alitions of the Willing
SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITY BUILDING
The Rise of a new middle-class ( 3 Billion) – in MegaCitiesand more people live in Greater Tokyo (35m) than in all of Canada
The top 10 cities by population:
1. Tokyo, (34 million)
2. Seoul (24.4 million)
3. Guangzhou (24.2 million)
4. Mexico City (23.4 million)
5. Delhi (23.2 million)
6. Mumbai (22.8 million)
7. New York (22.2 million)
8. Sao Paolo (20.9 million)
9. Manila (19.6 million)
10. Shanghai (19.4 million)
All above fit comfortably into the list
Of Top-50 nations by population
ORGANIZING OURSELVES: “ZIPPERED”- IN DIMENSIONS
Mainstream
• UN Re-organisation (0)
• Governments (1)
• Corporates and Global Compact (2a)
• Government- Business- Science Community (UN SDSN) (2b)
• New Entrants/ Innovators/ Game-changers (3)
• Sectors/ Green Growth/ UN SDGs (4)
1+2+3+4 +5= Hybrid Eco-system
Bottoms-up
• Community, Start-up Community (5)
SOME REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXAMPLES(AS IT IS TODAY)
ENERGY IN THE NETHERLANDS
• What to do after Groningen Gas / Energy Transition Accord- I ?
• What to to after Pernis?
• Electrification of Homes, Cars, Transport and Cities
• Greening of intensive energy Industries-, Agri-, Petro-;
• Regional Energy Markets
• What new export markets can we create?
A NEW GREEN PLAN- NW EUROPE
“HOLLAND”- IN AND BETWEEN GERMANY, UK, FRANCE AND SCANDINAVIA
New Start-up valleys focussing on “Doing Good”, whilst earning “Good”
EDUCATION – COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT (BOTTOMS-UP)
56
BETTER BUSINESS- BETTER WORLD
57
BLUEPRINT FOR BUSINESS LEADERSHIP ON THE SDGS
58
BLUEPRINT FOR BUSINESS LEADERSHIP ON THE SDGS (2)
59
BLUEPRINT FOR BUSINESS LEADERSHIP ON THE SDGS (3)
60
BLUEPRINT FOR BUSINESS LEADERSHIP ON THE SDGS (4)
61
62
ON ENERGY..
FOCUS AREAS (ENERGY SECTOR)(YEAR 2018 AND BEYOND- EXAMPLE ONLY)
Oil& Petrochemicals – Plastics in the Oceans, Fumes in the Air, and Carbon
in the Atmosphere
Gas, Emissions vs New Power- and Mobility- Energy Architectures
Energy Architecture Developments, Economies and UN SDGs
GeoPolitics, Free trade and “Energy to All” or
“Energy-Economies Free of Concerns”
Change & Transformation
OLD AND NEWClickable Presentations
Vs 350 Bn USD investment
Click to Go To Website
Germany: An example how it works- in real
EXAMPLE SHELL: “A DECISIVE STEP TO A CLEANER ENERGY FUTURE”
Royal Dutch Shell pledged to double its investment in renewable fuels and to cut its carbon emissions in half by 2050.
• In comments to investors, Ben van Beurden, Shell’s chief executive, said that from 2018 to 2020, the company’s new-energies division would spend up to $2 billion a year on renewable energy sources like wind, solar and hydrogen power and on electric-car charging stations.
• Mr. van Beurden stressed that the pledge was just a start and that the company supported the goal of the Paris accord, which is to keep global temperatures
67
It’s time for Shell to accelerate its
efforts in the transition to a lower-carbon world. This is how I plan to
drive change through the company.-
8 December 2017
EXAMPLE SHELL (2): “A DECISIVE STEP TO A CLEANER ENERGY FUTURE”
Into the 2020s, however, we plan a greater focus on revenue streams that will be less constrained by policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including petrochemicals and electricity. Shell has made a series of moves in recent months to strengthen its position in the power industry, with deals to buy Texas electricity group MP2, electric vehicle charging company NewMotion, and UK energy retailer First Utility.
“If you fast forward with another twenty, thirty, forty, fifty years, the power segment is going to be a very dominant part of the total energy system,” Mr van Beurden said. “At the moment it’s only 18 per cent but it will be more than 50 by the time this century is over. So we cannot pass up on that opportunity.”
68
It’s time for Shell to accelerate its efforts in the transition to a lower-
carbon world. This is how I plan to
drive change through the company.-8 December 2017
Example Shell (3): “A decisive step to a cleaner
energy future”
WITH A LARGE RANGE OF GLOBAL/ EUROPEAN UTILITY, TRANSPORT, SERVICE AND INDUSTRY PARTNERS..?
NEW POSSIBILITY THINKING (1)- MISSION INNOVATION
NEW POSSIBILITY THINKING (3)- LARGEST SOLAR FARM (FIRST SOLAR)
2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024
2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr
5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr
3500 hectares160,000 homes1,5 Bn USD550 MW8 million panels
NEW POSSIBILITY THINKING (4)- LARGEST OFFSHORE WIND FARM’S
4
2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024
2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr
5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr
An offshore area of 100km2175 wind turbinesTwo offshore substationsNearly 450km of offshore cablingOne onshore substation630MW of electricityEnough power for nearly half a million homes
NEW POSSIBILITY THINKING (5): NEW DISTRIBUTED UTILITY
NEW POSSIBILITY THINKING (6)- SOLAR CITY- A NEW VALUE PROPOSITION
NEW POSSIBILITY THINKING (7)- CAR-MANUFACTURER, CARLOS GHOSN
Electric Vehicles sales are in direct correlation with the number and amount of charging stations installed in a city, region or nation.
It's a public-private partnership. It's a matter of trust. It's a matter of convenience. But it surely the way to go into our Future.
(Carlos doesnot believe in fuel-celled LPV's. He is truly committed to the electrification of self-driving and navigating new car concepts)
UBER GOOGLE
TONY SEBA- RETHINKX (TAAS) STUDY ON PERSONAL MOBILITY
79
TaaS= Transport as a Service
BUT WITH A POSSIBLE RARE EARTH METAL (MINING) SCARCITY..
COBALT
80
NEW POSSIBILITY THINKING(8)SMART CITIES
The vision of “Smart Cities” is the urban center of the future, made safe, secure environmentally green, and efficient because all structures - whether for power, water, transportation, etc. are designed, constructed, and maintained making use of advanced, integrated materials, sensors, electronics, and networks which are interfaced with computerized systems comprised of databases, tracking, and decision-making algorithms. - U.S. Dept. of Energy, “The Vision of a Smart City”, 2000
Examples of New, Smart or Sustainable Cities:• C40 – Vancouver, Oslo, New York, etc. • Masdar, Abu Dhabi, • New Songho City, South Korea, • Gujarat International Finance Tec-City, India• King Abdullah + Economic Cities Saudi Arabia• e.g. China Tianjin Development•PM Modi’s 100 smart cities
•King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia
NEW POSSIBILITY THINKING (9) BETTER ARCHITECTURE- ZERO, ZERO-PLUS AND MORE
1/20/2018
NEW POSSIBILITY THINKING (11)ENERGY PROJECT FINANCE
NEW POSSIBILITY THINKING (12)FINANCE, BANKS AND INSURERS
We are here- so mind the gap !
IRENA’S 2017 ANNUAL RENEWABLE CAPACITY STATISTICS
87
2008
1 TW2016
2 TW
Roughly Equals
Present
Oil & Gas Company
Jobs
Clean-Tech/ Renewables
Oil & Gas
The Present Big Elephant in the Room:
“The Prize of Oil”
THE CONTEXT WE SEE OURSELVES IN
A LITTLE CONCEPTUAL..(ADDING IT ALL TOGETHER)
95
From WEF/ Accenture: The energy architecture is an integrated physical system of energy sources, carriers and demand sectors
shaped by government, industry and civil society.
The energy architecture on location is a reflection of the socio-political, economic, ecological and business philosophies, leadership and interests exercised on
location.
The energy architecture in a country, region or global community is (ideally) to serve (the rise of, establishment of) thriving sustainable societies-
making energy available, affordable and sustainable to all: balancing economic interests with that of society and nature. Here and there. Now
and in the future.
96
Energy Architecture
RE-INVENTING STRATEGIES/RELATIONSHIPS: “X-FACTOR OF INTEGRATION, TRANSITION AND TRANSFORMATION”
Renewables
Energy Efficiency
Product Re-designs
Energy Architectures
Re-designs
Fossil
1 2
3
4
5
LEVELS OF CHANGE
• Level 1
• Level 2
• Level 3
• Level 4
• Change and No Change. Resistance to Change. Policy, Administrative and Derivative Change (CO2 tax, ETS, Accounting). Coal vs. Gas. Continued backroom lobbying
• Full Integration of Renewables (clean-tech, energy conservations, smartness, etc.) in the Energy Architecture - but not with a system change. Retained regulations, ownership , revenue, tax and capital control structures
• Transition to a New Energy Architecture and Newly shared socio-economic and corporate business models- also in international trade
• Transformation of Economies and Societies. Eco-modernity and New human consciousness
THE WAY IT WORKS: COUNTRY CATEGORIES AND MARKETS (1)
• OECD- USA, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia
• (Richer, Resource based) OPEC/ GasPec
• China Inc., India Inc.
• Developing (without Resources)
• Developing (with Resources)
• Least developed. Poor.
The way it works (2) : A New Formula in Business and Trade
THE WAY IT WORKS (3): NEW FORMS OF COLLABORATIONS
Mainstream
• Governments (1)
• Energy Corporates and Incumbents (2)
• New Entrants/ Innovators/ Change-makers (3)
• Non-Energy Sectors/ Green Growth/ UN SDGs (4)
1+2+3+4 +5= Hybrid Eco-system Bottoms-up
• Community, Start-up Community (5)
THE WAY IT WORKS (4): FINDING THE RUBIK-CUBE COMBINATION “ORGANIZATIONAL FORMS AND FORMATS” - THAT WORKS
103
e.g.
Country Catogories,
Geographies &Markets
Business Formula-
and
Cross-Sectors
Forms of
Collaboration
197 COUNTRIES NEED TO CHANGE
RESPONSIBLE SECTOR LEADERSHIP(EXAMPLE ONLY)
category score
Excel, expand and maintain Reserves, Operating Envelopes and Production
Performances
Be a Leaders within the Sector- On Economic Rentability (over time), Sustainability
and Outlook of the whole and the aggregate in the sector
Act as a Steward over the developments in the whole energy value chains
Integrate Sustainable Development in the Business Model of Resource Exploitation
Actively support the transition from fossil fuels consumption in our cars, homes and
service sectors
Clickable Access to Report
BLUEPRINT FOR BUSINESS LEADERSHIP ON THE SDGS
108
SG Guterres on 16 January 2018…
A NEW BUSINESS WORTHINESS PLEDGE
The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals provide
a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to end poverty, combat
climate change and fight injustice and inequality. By
applying innovation, resources and expertise, I will pursue
the business opportunities inherent in building greener,
more equitable and inclusive societies
I am a business leader who knows that business cannot
succeed in societies that fail. I will do my utmost to be
business worthy in all my efforts, and true to my business to
support the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
I call on my peers to do the same.
“Every Energy Company and Every Energy Architecture in this world can be improved upon in order to raise the availability,
affordability and sustainability of energy to all”.- AdriaanKamp, -2015
Every Country and Every Organization in this World can be improved upon in order to raise the human, social, economic
and sustainable development to all- Adriaan Kamp- 2015
112
Building New Bridges
ONE WORLD. MANY NEEDS. MANY VIEWS
“IN LEADERSHIP- WE ARE ALL STUDENTS FOR LIFE”
ENERGY FOR ONE WORLD- 2012, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
SERVANT LEADERSHIP• Compassionate love
• Authenticity
• Humbleness
• Empowerment
• Provide direction
• Stewardship
Here’s the essence of the gospel of Greenleaf. First
and foremost, truly great managers want to serve the people they lead. They do this by supporting them
rather than dictating to them, and by assigning top
priority to employee well-being. Deceptively simple and deeply profound
POPE FRANCIS AND LAUDATO SI!
CAN WE LISTEN AND OBSERVE BEFORE CHANGE?
ERNEST GUNDLING: UNDERSTANDING CULTURES AND RELATIONSHIPS. THE WAY IT WORKS
ENERGY FOR ONE WORLD- 2017, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
HOFSTEDE: CULTURES AND ORGANIZATIONS. THE WAY IT WORKS
120
The Way it Works for a System
Rethink
World View
Cultures
Institutions
Our Leadership Ways
Core
Values
Cultural Dimensions
Global People Skills
CONSCIOUS
UNCONSCIOUS
A practice on Global Change, Energy Architecture, UN SDG’s and Our Leadership.
– Energy For One World -
Mail Address:
p/a Adriaan Kamp (Founder),
Dirk Hoogenraadstraat 152A, 2586
TN The Hague, The Netherlands.
Skype: Adriaan.Kamp
Direct line (Netherlands): 0031-
614939194
adriaankamp@energyforoneworld.
com (director)
Foundation & Regional Delivery Platforms-
EFOW Organizational Change and Demonstrator Proposals
Global Change
Energy Architecture
- Economy
- Environment
- Society
UN Sustainable Development &
Paris AgreementOutreach ---- Consultancy--- Delivery Programs
