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Robust decisions in uncertain times SAMI Consulting with Laurie Young 1 Welcome to Blowing The Cobwebs Off Your Mind Three Horizons Bootcamp Wolfson College Oxford 18-19 September 2013

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

SAMI Consulting with Laurie Young

1

Welcome to

Blowing The Cobwebs Off Your Mind Three Horizons Bootcamp

Wolfson College Oxford 18-19 September 2013

Robust decisions in uncertain times

AGENDA, 18 September

TODAY •  1.00 – 2.00 Orientation: arrival, check-in, light buffet

lunch, introductions. •  2.00 – 3.00 Future Consciousness •  3.00 – 5.30 Patterns of Change over Time: Length

What has happened? What is beginning to happen? How can timelines connecting past patterns and emerging changes extend the range of our foresight?

Exercise: Using the Three Horizons Framework and connecting it to the Gartner Hype Cycle, Schumpeter / Perez, and Age-Cohort Analysis (generational analysis).

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

AGENDA, 19 September

TOMORROW MORNING •  9.00 – 10.00 Introducing newcomers, reflections •  10.00 – 11.15 Patterns of Change over Time: Depth

Exercise: Using CLA to add depth to our Three Horizons mapping.

•  11.15 – 11.30 Coffee / tea •  11.30 – 12.45 Patterns of Change over Time: Width 1

Exercise: Using the Verge ethnographic perpective to map broad implications of change.

•  12.45 – 2.00 Lunch, Private Dining Rooms, Wolfson

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

AGENDA, 19 September

TOMORROW AFTERNOON •  2.00 – 3.30 Patterns of Change over Time: Width 2

Exercise: Mapping impact cascades across to explore how change itself transforms.

•  3.30 – 3.45 Coffee / tea •  3.45 – 4.45 Action: applying these tools within your own

organisations. Helping each other design quick-implementation initiatives for your agency, company, or clients.

•  4.45 – 5.00 Reflection and wrap-up.

www.samiconsulting.co.uk 4

Thank you!

Robust decisions in uncertain times

SAMI Consulting with Laurie Young

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INTRODUCTIONS

Wolfson College Oxford 18-19 September 2013

Robust decisions in uncertain times Our story: Where this came from

•  Gill & Laurie's book •  Interest in futures & investment •  Meetings to develop the ideas. •  The cards & advisory work

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Robust decisions in uncertain times What we covered

•  Futures trends. •  Dialogue about the forces. •  Cognitive bias. •  3 horizons •  Scenarios

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In the future, we will all fly organic.

The three horizons framework for layering change life-cycles

Robust decisions in uncertain times

SAMI Consulting with Laurie Young

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“FUTURE CONSCIOUSNESS”

Wolfson College Oxford 18-19 September 2013

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Timelines, Change, Time Horizons

•  Extended timelines: – Past change – Current conditions – Emerging futures

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Three Horizons

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•  Bill Sharpe, International Futures Forum: – Technology roadmapping - inadequate – UK Foresight: Intelligent Infrastructures – Emerging practice – Reflection

Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope

•  Curry and Hodgson, cases and article •  Growing community of practice

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Horizon ONE

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•  Today’s dominant pattern(s) – accumulations of past decisions and designs

•  H1 systems are fully integrated with surrounding culture – ‘locked in’

•  Well-established ways of dealing with problems frame approaches to new challenges

•  Dominated by quantitative sense of time as a limited resource

MANAGERIAL

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Horizon THREE

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•  Imagined futures and emerging changes – transformative shifts from the present

•  Explores the ‘full range of possible social settlements and systems that could be brought into being’

•  Surfaces and questions underlying cultural assumptions

•  Dominated by qualitative awareness of time as a defining moment of decision

VISIONARY

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Horizon TWO

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•  Looks both ways – past and future – to respond to limitations of H1 and opportunities of H3

•  Creates a zone of innovation and turbulence •  Danger: “H1 capture” – too mired in the past •  Dominated by feelings of opportunity,

engagement and a sense of opportunity cost – trade-offs that must be made

ENTREPRENEURIAL

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Horizons Insights

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“Instead of seeing a world of stability to which change and uncertainty ‘happen,’ we instead become aware that everything that seems fixed and stable is just part of a slow process of change, embedded in other processes that extend out as far as we want to explore.”

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Three Horizons

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Time and Three Horizons

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Robust decisions in uncertain times Charles Handy on Change

Performance

Time

A

B

C

D

E

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Time and Three Horizons

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Three Horizons: Quick Scenarios 1

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Three Horizons: Quick Scenarios 2

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Robust decisions in uncertain times Gartner Hype Cycle

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

SAMI Consulting with Laurie Young

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Dinner – 6.45 – 7.45, in Hall Relaxing – Wine and talk after

…and so to bed.

Wolfson College Oxford 18-19 September 2013

Robust decisions in uncertain times

AGENDA, 19 September

MORNING •  9.00 – 10.00 Introducing newcomers, reflections •  10.00 – 11.15 Patterns of Change over Time: Depth

Exercise: Using CLA to add depth to our Three Horizons mapping.

•  11.15 – 11.30 Coffee / tea •  11.30 – 12.45 Patterns of Change over Time: Width 1

Exercise: Using the Verge ethnographic perspective to map broad implications of change.

•  12.45 – 2.00 Lunch, Private Dining Rooms, Wolfson

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

AGENDA, 19 September

AFTERNOON •  2.00 – 3.30 Patterns of Change over Time: Width 2

Exercise: Mapping impact cascades across to explore how change itself transforms.

•  3.30 – 3.45 Coffee / tea •  3.45 – 4.45 Action: applying these tools within your own

organisations. Helping each other design quick-implementation initiatives for your agency, company, or clients.

•  4.45 – 5.00 Reflection and wrap-up.

www.samiconsulting.co.uk 26

Thank you!

Robust decisions in uncertain times Causal Layered Analysis Dr. Sohail Inayatullah

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Causes

Metaphors and Myths

Problem

Social, Economic, Cultural

Discourse Analysis: culture, values, language, postmodernisms, spiral dynamics memes (alternatives)

Myth/Metaphor Analysis: Jungian archetypes, ancient bedrock stories, gut level responses, emotional responses, visual images - may not be words for it

(visioning)

Worldview

The “Litany”: official public description of issue observational: events, trends, diagnosed problems, media spin, opinions, policy; visible and audible; unconnected (scanning)

Social Science Analysis: short-term historical facts

start connecting; systems analysis, feedback interconnections, technical explanations, social analysis, policy analysis (systems)

Sources:R.Slaughter,“IntegralOpera6ngSystem”WorldFutureSociety,July2003,drawingonSohailInayatullah;DennisList,“3MapsoftheFuture,”July18,2003;AndyHines,UH-ClearLake,2006.

Con6nuous

Years

Societal/Civiliza6onal

Decades

TimeScaleofChange

Robust decisions in uncertain times Litany: official public description of the issue

•  Definition: –  events, –  trends, –  problems, –  “word on the street,” –  media spin, –  official positions.

•  Example: Marriage. –  Climbing divorce

rate; –  More single parent &

“blended” families; –  More cross-cultural,

cross-church, & alternative marriages;

–  More commuting marriages.

Robust decisions in uncertain times Causes: social science and systems analysis

•  Definition: –  structures, –  interrelationships, –  systems, –  policy analysis,

technical explanations, role of the state and interest groups.

•  Example: Marriage. –  Fragmentation of

communities; –  Wedding (party) no

longer linked to marriage (commitment);

–  AIDS epidemic >> monogamy = safety.

Robust decisions in uncertain times Worldview

•  Definition: –  culture, –  values, –  paradigms / mental

models –  how language

frames / constrains the issue.

•  Example: Marriage. –  Be fruitful -- and be

sanctified; –  Purity, commitment,

monogamy, fidelity, childrearing;

–  Double standards; –  “Old man/lady;”

“breadwinner” and “home-maker”, etc. .

Robust decisions in uncertain times Myth/Metaphor

•  Definition: –  collective

archetypes, –  gut/emotional

responses, –  visual images.

•  Example: Marriage. –  Adam and Eve; –  The Great Mother; –  American Gothic; –  Someone for everyone

-- but only one; –  Cake - dance - ring; –  Security vs. fear of

commitment.

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Eg, Futures for Marriage

•  From “one on one” to Heinlein’s linear or clan marriages;

•  From “cake-dance-ring” to digital candy - SecondLife celebration - embedded ID chip;

•  From American Gothic to the Beckhams -- celebrity couples.

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Medicalmistakes

Litany HighrateofmedicalmistakesSolu6on:moreGPtraining

Systemiccauses

Auditoncausesofmistakes:communica6on,newtechnologies,administra6onSolu6on:moreefficient,smartersystems

Worldview Reduc6onistmodernmedicalparadigmcreateshierarchySolu6on:enhancepowerofpa6ents;movetodifferenthealthsystems

Myth/metaphor

“Doctorknowsbest”Solu6on:“Takechargeofyourhealth”

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CLA Examples

Citytransportfutures

Litany Conges6onandpollu6onSolu6on:expandroadsandregulateemissions

Systemiccauses

Auditpointsofconges6on,explorenewtechnologiesandtravelchoicesSolu6on:integratedplanningandexpansionoftravelchoices

Worldview ModernistcentralisedcitySolu6on:redefinethecity,decentralisethecity,andrethink6me–developcity6mepolicies

Myth/metaphor

“Biggerisbe`er”Solu6on:“Createpost-modernvillage”

Robust decisions in uncertain times

CHANGE!

Using CLA to create alternative scenarios / visions:

Iden:fythelitany:currentcondi:ons&events.Analyzethecauses:interrela:onships,systems.Exploretheworldview:valuesandculturalicons.Unveilthemyths/metaphors:archetypes,emo:ons.

Analysedown,iden6fyingalterna6velitanies,causes,worldviews,andmyths:createchangebychoosingalterna6vesasyousurface.

Robust decisions in uncertain times

•  Pick an issue, e.g., security in global tourism. •  Brainstorm each level separately and talk about it:

–  Brainstorm on sticky note pads –  Cluster like items into themes –  Identify gaps and needs for research (optional)

•  Create a scenario or vision by: –  choosing an alternative metaphor / myth or worldview; –  working back up through the layers, brainstorming new

contents for each layer that would logically emerge from the changes in the foundation layer below;

–  until you reach a new set of events and behaviours comprising an entirely new litany.

CLA Exercise:

Robust decisions in uncertain times Litany: public descriptions

Definition: –  events, –  trends, –  problems, –  “word on the

street,” –  media spin, –  official

positions.

Example: security in global tourism. –  47 kidnappings of tourists in Kuwait; –  More restrictions on conditions of

travel; –  Increased use of biometric IDs; –  More security checks; –  Explosions in Sharm El Sheikh; –  Government advice on safety; –  Increased public perception of

insecurity; –  Shifting “comparative advantage” of

perceived secure destinations.

Robust decisions in uncertain times Causes: social science and systems analysis Definition:

–  structures, –  interrelationships, –  systems, –  policy analysis,

technical explanations, role of the state and interest groups.

Example: security in global tourism. –  Tourists as currency (trade for

infrastructure improvements); –  Media attention to security

incidents; –  Rapid reallocation of financial

resources to security; –  Local hostility due to negative

social and environmental impacts of tourism.

Robust decisions in uncertain times Worldview

Definition: –  culture, –  values, –  Paradigms /

mental models

–  how language frames / constrains the issue.

Example: security in global tourism. –  Tourists bring challenges to our

values; –  State responsible for our

security; –  Environmental consciousness; –  Terrorists/-ism is MAD and BAD

-- not freedom fighters but criminals;

–  Terrorism a global issue; –  Militarisation of many nations.

Robust decisions in uncertain times

Myth/Metaphor

Definition: –  collective

archetypes, –  Gut /

emotional responses,

–  visual images.

Example: security in global tourism. –  “White hats vs black hats” - good -

bad seen as dichotomy; –  “Rucksacks with wires” - portable

chaos; –  Destination seen as “dangerous

territory” or “dark territory” -unknown seen as dangerous;

–  Civilised vs. exotic; exotic = not civilised;

–  Fear (caused by ignorance) of other; –  “Adventure has risks”.

Robust decisions in uncertain times Alternative future: security in global tourism.

Newmyths:Thesacredpilgrimage;theotherasteacherandguide.

Newworldviews/values:Travel=educa6on=benefits;diversity&differencecelebrated.

Newsystems:Localsupportstructuresembeddingvisitorsinlocallife,localsystems.

Movefromthemythofriskyadventuresinexo6cunknownlandspeopledbydangerousstrangers…

…tothemythofajointpilgrimageoflearningembeddedwithinalocal

networkofexpertssharingtheiruniqueenvironment.

Newevents,behaviours:Visitors-‘pilgrims’-assignedlocalhosts,guides,&interpreters.

Alternatemythsandvaluesgeneratenewopera:ngassump:onsandcrea:vesolu:ons.

Robust decisions in uncertain times

VERGE General Practice Framework Dr. Richard Lum

Focus not on the drivers, but on the impacts: How does change ripple out across the various segments of human experience?

Human history can be dissected (and sometimes understood) as a series of eras or epochs – the Agricultural Era, the Industrial Era, the Information Age. Common to each of these eras or ages is a set of culture points which define and shape each era and which are common to all of human experience. For instance, while the role (and even the flavor) of religion has changed throughout time, the common need of humans to have a framework for understanding their world has not. Likewise, while our weapons, our choice of foods and structure of our families may change throughout time, the need for them does not. Michele Bowman and Richard Lum

Goal: Use the Ethnographic Futures Framework (EFF) to integrate a new value set or mental model into your organisation, and imagine how different human actions and responses to your products might align with those new values.

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Verge – exploration of change focused on people

Verge was created by Dr. Richard Lum of Vision Strategy Foresight and Michele Bowman of TEN Conference

The processes and technology through

which we create goods and services

The ways in which we acquire and use the goods and services we create

Social structures and relationships which link

people and organizations

The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define the world around us

The technologies used to connect people, places and things

The ways in which we destroy value

and the reasons for doing so

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define ourselves and the world around us.

WorldviewsParadigms

PhilosophiesSocial Values & Attitudes

Scientific ModelsCulture

Economic SystemsReligion

Politics & Public Policy

DEFINE: What new concepts, ideas, and paradigms will emerge to help us make sense of the world?

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Social structures and relationships which link people and organizations.

DemographicsFamily & Lifestyle Groups

Work & EconomyHabitat & Ecosystems

Business Models & PracticesGovernment

International RelationsEducation

RELATE: How will we live together on planet Earth?

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

The technologies used to connect people, places and things, including:

Information TechnologyMusic Media

Visual ArtsLanguage

Space and Urban Design

What arts and technologies will we use to CONNECT people, places, and things?

Example: radical biotechnology: DNA-based computing possible; gifts of bio-designed life the new Valentine bouquets; genetically engineered organic sculptures…

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

The processes and technology through which we produce goods and services,

including:

EngineeringWealth

ManufacturingInnovation Processes

Life SciencesMaterials SciencesNanotechnology

EfficiencyWorkforce

As human beings what will we be inspired to CREATE?

Example: radical biotechnology: Many new materials ‘manufactured’ on farms: goats produce proteins, plants produce plastics, etc.; ‘artificial insects’ monitor agricultural lands, water quality, etc…

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

The ways in which we acquire and use the goods and services we create, including:

Modes of ExchangeRetail Practices

Consumer PreferencesMarketing

Patterns of ConsumptionLocations of Consumption

Patterns of Raw Materials Use

Touch Points How will we use the earth’s resources?

Example: radical biotechnology: More ‘white goods’ mimic organisms in design: self-repair, communicate to others of their kind, optimise their intake / output of energy and waste….

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

The processes that contribute to reducing value and increasing entropy, including:

Violence and KillingDamage

Refuse and WasteInefficiencies

Attempts to Undermine Values and Norms

Touch Points DESTROY: How will we destroy value, and what will be our reasons for doing so?

Example: radical biotechnology: Potential hazards of engineered nano-bio-particles on human health and the broader natural environment and landscape…

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Verge – exploration of change focused on people:

EFF was created by Dr. Richard Lum of Vision Strategy Foresight and Michele Bowman of TEN Conference

The processes and technology through

which we create goods and services

The ways in which we acquire and use the goods and services we create

Social structures and relationships which link

people and organizations

The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define the world around us

The technologies used to connect people, places and things

The ways in which we destroy value

and the reasons for doing so

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Align your organisation to shape the future

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

Futures Wheels

•  The Futures wheel is an instrument for graphical visualisation of direct and indirect future consequences of a particular change or development.

•  It is a structured brainstorming tool to

explore the future of a specific topic or systematically capture the effect of various future developments on each other.

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Robust decisions in uncertain times Futures Wheels: Origins

•  Jerome Glenn –  Invented futures wheels in 1971 as a

method for policy analysis and forecasting

–  Also called Implementation Wheel, Impact Wheel, Mind Mapping, and Webbing.

•  Joel Barker –  “Cascade thinking:” go out at least

three orders of implications to find big surprises

–  http://www.strategicexploration.com/i-wheel/index.htm

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

•  Enter your assigned change in the inner circle of your worksheet.

•  Everyone take five minutes by themselves to imagine possible impacts of this change over the next twenty years.

•  Share your individual lists within your group. Which of these are immediate, or primary, impacts? Write those down next to the appropriate “spoke”.

•  Now consider each primary impact, one by one. Brainstorm two or three impacts it will have, and map those, connecting each to its primary impact.

Futures Wheels: Instructions

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Robust decisions in uncertain times

secondary effects

work?

hobbies?

education?home/families?

travel?

communications?

economy?

environment?

primary effects

impact

impact

impact

work noisier

“earbud” headphones to talk to/hear computer

office sound barriers

silent, eye-tracking menu navigation goggles developed

voice input / output, biometric passwords

FuturesWheel55

Futures Wheels: Example

Robust decisions in uncertain times

voice input / output, biometric passwords

FuturesWheel

market for “great voices”

work noisier

no passwords required drop in carpal tunnel

syndromeIncrease in worker productivity

decline in worker compensation costs

collapse of keyboard wrist rest market

New licensing opp’ty for popular singers and actors

pirate market: great voices “napsterized”

Rather talk to your machine than you…

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Futures Wheels: Example

Robust decisions in uncertain times

FuturesWheels(ImpactWheels)augmentedwithVergeAdapted from J Glenn; R Lum

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Futures Wheels: Example with Verge