Upload
wendy-schultz
View
329
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI Consulting with Laurie Young
1
Welcome to
Blowing The Cobwebs Off Your Mind Three Horizons Bootcamp
Wolfson College Oxford 18-19 September 2013
Robust decisions in uncertain times
AGENDA, 18 September
TODAY • 1.00 – 2.00 Orientation: arrival, check-in, light buffet
lunch, introductions. • 2.00 – 3.00 Future Consciousness • 3.00 – 5.30 Patterns of Change over Time: Length
What has happened? What is beginning to happen? How can timelines connecting past patterns and emerging changes extend the range of our foresight?
Exercise: Using the Three Horizons Framework and connecting it to the Gartner Hype Cycle, Schumpeter / Perez, and Age-Cohort Analysis (generational analysis).
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 2
Robust decisions in uncertain times
AGENDA, 19 September
TOMORROW MORNING • 9.00 – 10.00 Introducing newcomers, reflections • 10.00 – 11.15 Patterns of Change over Time: Depth
Exercise: Using CLA to add depth to our Three Horizons mapping.
• 11.15 – 11.30 Coffee / tea • 11.30 – 12.45 Patterns of Change over Time: Width 1
Exercise: Using the Verge ethnographic perpective to map broad implications of change.
• 12.45 – 2.00 Lunch, Private Dining Rooms, Wolfson
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 3
Robust decisions in uncertain times
AGENDA, 19 September
TOMORROW AFTERNOON • 2.00 – 3.30 Patterns of Change over Time: Width 2
Exercise: Mapping impact cascades across to explore how change itself transforms.
• 3.30 – 3.45 Coffee / tea • 3.45 – 4.45 Action: applying these tools within your own
organisations. Helping each other design quick-implementation initiatives for your agency, company, or clients.
• 4.45 – 5.00 Reflection and wrap-up.
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 4
Thank you!
Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI Consulting with Laurie Young
5
INTRODUCTIONS
Wolfson College Oxford 18-19 September 2013
Robust decisions in uncertain times Our story: Where this came from
• Gill & Laurie's book • Interest in futures & investment • Meetings to develop the ideas. • The cards & advisory work
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 6
Robust decisions in uncertain times What we covered
• Futures trends. • Dialogue about the forces. • Cognitive bias. • 3 horizons • Scenarios
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 7
In the future, we will all fly organic.
The three horizons framework for layering change life-cycles
Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI Consulting with Laurie Young
8
“FUTURE CONSCIOUSNESS”
Wolfson College Oxford 18-19 September 2013
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Timelines, Change, Time Horizons
• Extended timelines: – Past change – Current conditions – Emerging futures
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 9
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Three Horizons
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 10
• Bill Sharpe, International Futures Forum: – Technology roadmapping - inadequate – UK Foresight: Intelligent Infrastructures – Emerging practice – Reflection
Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope
• Curry and Hodgson, cases and article • Growing community of practice
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Horizon ONE
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 11
• Today’s dominant pattern(s) – accumulations of past decisions and designs
• H1 systems are fully integrated with surrounding culture – ‘locked in’
• Well-established ways of dealing with problems frame approaches to new challenges
• Dominated by quantitative sense of time as a limited resource
MANAGERIAL
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Horizon THREE
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 12
• Imagined futures and emerging changes – transformative shifts from the present
• Explores the ‘full range of possible social settlements and systems that could be brought into being’
• Surfaces and questions underlying cultural assumptions
• Dominated by qualitative awareness of time as a defining moment of decision
VISIONARY
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Horizon TWO
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 13
• Looks both ways – past and future – to respond to limitations of H1 and opportunities of H3
• Creates a zone of innovation and turbulence • Danger: “H1 capture” – too mired in the past • Dominated by feelings of opportunity,
engagement and a sense of opportunity cost – trade-offs that must be made
ENTREPRENEURIAL
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Horizons Insights
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 14
“Instead of seeing a world of stability to which change and uncertainty ‘happen,’ we instead become aware that everything that seems fixed and stable is just part of a slow process of change, embedded in other processes that extend out as far as we want to explore.”
Robust decisions in uncertain times Charles Handy on Change
Performance
Time
A
B
C
D
E
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 17
Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI Consulting with Laurie Young
24
Dinner – 6.45 – 7.45, in Hall Relaxing – Wine and talk after
…and so to bed.
Wolfson College Oxford 18-19 September 2013
Robust decisions in uncertain times
AGENDA, 19 September
MORNING • 9.00 – 10.00 Introducing newcomers, reflections • 10.00 – 11.15 Patterns of Change over Time: Depth
Exercise: Using CLA to add depth to our Three Horizons mapping.
• 11.15 – 11.30 Coffee / tea • 11.30 – 12.45 Patterns of Change over Time: Width 1
Exercise: Using the Verge ethnographic perspective to map broad implications of change.
• 12.45 – 2.00 Lunch, Private Dining Rooms, Wolfson
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 25
Robust decisions in uncertain times
AGENDA, 19 September
AFTERNOON • 2.00 – 3.30 Patterns of Change over Time: Width 2
Exercise: Mapping impact cascades across to explore how change itself transforms.
• 3.30 – 3.45 Coffee / tea • 3.45 – 4.45 Action: applying these tools within your own
organisations. Helping each other design quick-implementation initiatives for your agency, company, or clients.
• 4.45 – 5.00 Reflection and wrap-up.
www.samiconsulting.co.uk 26
Thank you!
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Causes
Metaphors and Myths
Problem
Social, Economic, Cultural
Discourse Analysis: culture, values, language, postmodernisms, spiral dynamics memes (alternatives)
Myth/Metaphor Analysis: Jungian archetypes, ancient bedrock stories, gut level responses, emotional responses, visual images - may not be words for it
(visioning)
Worldview
The “Litany”: official public description of issue observational: events, trends, diagnosed problems, media spin, opinions, policy; visible and audible; unconnected (scanning)
Social Science Analysis: short-term historical facts
start connecting; systems analysis, feedback interconnections, technical explanations, social analysis, policy analysis (systems)
Sources:R.Slaughter,“IntegralOpera6ngSystem”WorldFutureSociety,July2003,drawingonSohailInayatullah;DennisList,“3MapsoftheFuture,”July18,2003;AndyHines,UH-ClearLake,2006.
Con6nuous
Years
Societal/Civiliza6onal
Decades
TimeScaleofChange
Robust decisions in uncertain times Litany: official public description of the issue
• Definition: – events, – trends, – problems, – “word on the street,” – media spin, – official positions.
• Example: Marriage. – Climbing divorce
rate; – More single parent &
“blended” families; – More cross-cultural,
cross-church, & alternative marriages;
– More commuting marriages.
Robust decisions in uncertain times Causes: social science and systems analysis
• Definition: – structures, – interrelationships, – systems, – policy analysis,
technical explanations, role of the state and interest groups.
• Example: Marriage. – Fragmentation of
communities; – Wedding (party) no
longer linked to marriage (commitment);
– AIDS epidemic >> monogamy = safety.
Robust decisions in uncertain times Worldview
• Definition: – culture, – values, – paradigms / mental
models – how language
frames / constrains the issue.
• Example: Marriage. – Be fruitful -- and be
sanctified; – Purity, commitment,
monogamy, fidelity, childrearing;
– Double standards; – “Old man/lady;”
“breadwinner” and “home-maker”, etc. .
Robust decisions in uncertain times Myth/Metaphor
• Definition: – collective
archetypes, – gut/emotional
responses, – visual images.
• Example: Marriage. – Adam and Eve; – The Great Mother; – American Gothic; – Someone for everyone
-- but only one; – Cake - dance - ring; – Security vs. fear of
commitment.
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Eg, Futures for Marriage
• From “one on one” to Heinlein’s linear or clan marriages;
• From “cake-dance-ring” to digital candy - SecondLife celebration - embedded ID chip;
• From American Gothic to the Beckhams -- celebrity couples.
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Medicalmistakes
Litany HighrateofmedicalmistakesSolu6on:moreGPtraining
Systemiccauses
Auditoncausesofmistakes:communica6on,newtechnologies,administra6onSolu6on:moreefficient,smartersystems
Worldview Reduc6onistmodernmedicalparadigmcreateshierarchySolu6on:enhancepowerofpa6ents;movetodifferenthealthsystems
Myth/metaphor
“Doctorknowsbest”Solu6on:“Takechargeofyourhealth”
34
CLA Examples
Citytransportfutures
Litany Conges6onandpollu6onSolu6on:expandroadsandregulateemissions
Systemiccauses
Auditpointsofconges6on,explorenewtechnologiesandtravelchoicesSolu6on:integratedplanningandexpansionoftravelchoices
Worldview ModernistcentralisedcitySolu6on:redefinethecity,decentralisethecity,andrethink6me–developcity6mepolicies
Myth/metaphor
“Biggerisbe`er”Solu6on:“Createpost-modernvillage”
Robust decisions in uncertain times
CHANGE!
Using CLA to create alternative scenarios / visions:
Iden:fythelitany:currentcondi:ons&events.Analyzethecauses:interrela:onships,systems.Exploretheworldview:valuesandculturalicons.Unveilthemyths/metaphors:archetypes,emo:ons.
Analysedown,iden6fyingalterna6velitanies,causes,worldviews,andmyths:createchangebychoosingalterna6vesasyousurface.
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Pick an issue, e.g., security in global tourism. • Brainstorm each level separately and talk about it:
– Brainstorm on sticky note pads – Cluster like items into themes – Identify gaps and needs for research (optional)
• Create a scenario or vision by: – choosing an alternative metaphor / myth or worldview; – working back up through the layers, brainstorming new
contents for each layer that would logically emerge from the changes in the foundation layer below;
– until you reach a new set of events and behaviours comprising an entirely new litany.
CLA Exercise:
Robust decisions in uncertain times Litany: public descriptions
Definition: – events, – trends, – problems, – “word on the
street,” – media spin, – official
positions.
Example: security in global tourism. – 47 kidnappings of tourists in Kuwait; – More restrictions on conditions of
travel; – Increased use of biometric IDs; – More security checks; – Explosions in Sharm El Sheikh; – Government advice on safety; – Increased public perception of
insecurity; – Shifting “comparative advantage” of
perceived secure destinations.
Robust decisions in uncertain times Causes: social science and systems analysis Definition:
– structures, – interrelationships, – systems, – policy analysis,
technical explanations, role of the state and interest groups.
Example: security in global tourism. – Tourists as currency (trade for
infrastructure improvements); – Media attention to security
incidents; – Rapid reallocation of financial
resources to security; – Local hostility due to negative
social and environmental impacts of tourism.
Robust decisions in uncertain times Worldview
Definition: – culture, – values, – Paradigms /
mental models
– how language frames / constrains the issue.
Example: security in global tourism. – Tourists bring challenges to our
values; – State responsible for our
security; – Environmental consciousness; – Terrorists/-ism is MAD and BAD
-- not freedom fighters but criminals;
– Terrorism a global issue; – Militarisation of many nations.
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Myth/Metaphor
Definition: – collective
archetypes, – Gut /
emotional responses,
– visual images.
Example: security in global tourism. – “White hats vs black hats” - good -
bad seen as dichotomy; – “Rucksacks with wires” - portable
chaos; – Destination seen as “dangerous
territory” or “dark territory” -unknown seen as dangerous;
– Civilised vs. exotic; exotic = not civilised;
– Fear (caused by ignorance) of other; – “Adventure has risks”.
Robust decisions in uncertain times Alternative future: security in global tourism.
Newmyths:Thesacredpilgrimage;theotherasteacherandguide.
Newworldviews/values:Travel=educa6on=benefits;diversity&differencecelebrated.
Newsystems:Localsupportstructuresembeddingvisitorsinlocallife,localsystems.
Movefromthemythofriskyadventuresinexo6cunknownlandspeopledbydangerousstrangers…
…tothemythofajointpilgrimageoflearningembeddedwithinalocal
networkofexpertssharingtheiruniqueenvironment.
Newevents,behaviours:Visitors-‘pilgrims’-assignedlocalhosts,guides,&interpreters.
Alternatemythsandvaluesgeneratenewopera:ngassump:onsandcrea:vesolu:ons.
Robust decisions in uncertain times
VERGE General Practice Framework Dr. Richard Lum
Focus not on the drivers, but on the impacts: How does change ripple out across the various segments of human experience?
Human history can be dissected (and sometimes understood) as a series of eras or epochs – the Agricultural Era, the Industrial Era, the Information Age. Common to each of these eras or ages is a set of culture points which define and shape each era and which are common to all of human experience. For instance, while the role (and even the flavor) of religion has changed throughout time, the common need of humans to have a framework for understanding their world has not. Likewise, while our weapons, our choice of foods and structure of our families may change throughout time, the need for them does not. Michele Bowman and Richard Lum
Goal: Use the Ethnographic Futures Framework (EFF) to integrate a new value set or mental model into your organisation, and imagine how different human actions and responses to your products might align with those new values.
42 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Verge – exploration of change focused on people
Verge was created by Dr. Richard Lum of Vision Strategy Foresight and Michele Bowman of TEN Conference
The processes and technology through
which we create goods and services
The ways in which we acquire and use the goods and services we create
Social structures and relationships which link
people and organizations
The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define the world around us
The technologies used to connect people, places and things
The ways in which we destroy value
and the reasons for doing so
43 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Robust decisions in uncertain times
The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define ourselves and the world around us.
WorldviewsParadigms
PhilosophiesSocial Values & Attitudes
Scientific ModelsCulture
Economic SystemsReligion
Politics & Public Policy
DEFINE: What new concepts, ideas, and paradigms will emerge to help us make sense of the world?
44 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Social structures and relationships which link people and organizations.
DemographicsFamily & Lifestyle Groups
Work & EconomyHabitat & Ecosystems
Business Models & PracticesGovernment
International RelationsEducation
RELATE: How will we live together on planet Earth?
45 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Robust decisions in uncertain times
The technologies used to connect people, places and things, including:
Information TechnologyMusic Media
Visual ArtsLanguage
Space and Urban Design
What arts and technologies will we use to CONNECT people, places, and things?
Example: radical biotechnology: DNA-based computing possible; gifts of bio-designed life the new Valentine bouquets; genetically engineered organic sculptures…
46 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Robust decisions in uncertain times
The processes and technology through which we produce goods and services,
including:
EngineeringWealth
ManufacturingInnovation Processes
Life SciencesMaterials SciencesNanotechnology
EfficiencyWorkforce
As human beings what will we be inspired to CREATE?
Example: radical biotechnology: Many new materials ‘manufactured’ on farms: goats produce proteins, plants produce plastics, etc.; ‘artificial insects’ monitor agricultural lands, water quality, etc…
47 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Robust decisions in uncertain times
The ways in which we acquire and use the goods and services we create, including:
Modes of ExchangeRetail Practices
Consumer PreferencesMarketing
Patterns of ConsumptionLocations of Consumption
Patterns of Raw Materials Use
Touch Points How will we use the earth’s resources?
Example: radical biotechnology: More ‘white goods’ mimic organisms in design: self-repair, communicate to others of their kind, optimise their intake / output of energy and waste….
48 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Robust decisions in uncertain times
The processes that contribute to reducing value and increasing entropy, including:
Violence and KillingDamage
Refuse and WasteInefficiencies
Attempts to Undermine Values and Norms
Touch Points DESTROY: How will we destroy value, and what will be our reasons for doing so?
Example: radical biotechnology: Potential hazards of engineered nano-bio-particles on human health and the broader natural environment and landscape…
49 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Verge – exploration of change focused on people:
EFF was created by Dr. Richard Lum of Vision Strategy Foresight and Michele Bowman of TEN Conference
The processes and technology through
which we create goods and services
The ways in which we acquire and use the goods and services we create
Social structures and relationships which link
people and organizations
The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define the world around us
The technologies used to connect people, places and things
The ways in which we destroy value
and the reasons for doing so
50 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Align your organisation to shape the future
51 www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Futures Wheels
• The Futures wheel is an instrument for graphical visualisation of direct and indirect future consequences of a particular change or development.
• It is a structured brainstorming tool to
explore the future of a specific topic or systematically capture the effect of various future developments on each other.
52
Robust decisions in uncertain times Futures Wheels: Origins
• Jerome Glenn – Invented futures wheels in 1971 as a
method for policy analysis and forecasting
– Also called Implementation Wheel, Impact Wheel, Mind Mapping, and Webbing.
• Joel Barker – “Cascade thinking:” go out at least
three orders of implications to find big surprises
– http://www.strategicexploration.com/i-wheel/index.htm
53
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Enter your assigned change in the inner circle of your worksheet.
• Everyone take five minutes by themselves to imagine possible impacts of this change over the next twenty years.
• Share your individual lists within your group. Which of these are immediate, or primary, impacts? Write those down next to the appropriate “spoke”.
• Now consider each primary impact, one by one. Brainstorm two or three impacts it will have, and map those, connecting each to its primary impact.
Futures Wheels: Instructions
54
Robust decisions in uncertain times
secondary effects
work?
hobbies?
education?home/families?
travel?
communications?
economy?
environment?
primary effects
impact
impact
impact
work noisier
“earbud” headphones to talk to/hear computer
office sound barriers
silent, eye-tracking menu navigation goggles developed
voice input / output, biometric passwords
FuturesWheel55
Futures Wheels: Example
Robust decisions in uncertain times
voice input / output, biometric passwords
FuturesWheel
market for “great voices”
work noisier
no passwords required drop in carpal tunnel
syndromeIncrease in worker productivity
decline in worker compensation costs
collapse of keyboard wrist rest market
New licensing opp’ty for popular singers and actors
pirate market: great voices “napsterized”
Rather talk to your machine than you…
56
Futures Wheels: Example