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The Future of Privacy | The Emerging View Insights from Mul0ple Expert Discussions Around the World
Context Privacy was one of the key themes to emerge from the first Future Agenda programme in 2010. Since then, it has grown in recogni0on, focus and concern for a wide range of individuals, organisa0ons and governments.
Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program
that accesses mul0ple views of the next decade so all can be beKer informed and s0mulate innova0on.
Looking Forwards Organisa0ons increasingly want to iden0fy and understand
both the an0cipated and unexpected changes so that they can be beKer prepared for the future.
Future Agenda 1.0 Top Insights for 2020 From the 2010 program, 52 key insights on the next decade were shared widely and have been extensively used by organisa0ons around the world.
Privacy was a key issue to emerge in 2010 and has grown since.
Future Agenda in Numbers The first Future Agenda programme engaged a wide range of views in
25 countries. Future Agenda 2.0 has doubled the face-‐to-‐face interac0on and significantly raised online sharing, debate and discussion.
Future Agenda 1.0 1 HOST 16 TOPICS 25 COUNTRIES 50 WORKSHOPS 1500 ORGANISATIONS
Future Agenda 2.0 50 HOSTS 25 TOPICS 40 COUNTRIES 100 WORKSHOPS 2500 ORGANISATIONS
Future Agenda 2.0 Topics The second version of the Future Agenda program is taking place during 2015 and has been addressing 20 topics via 100 events in
50 ci0es in 40 countries in partnerhship with around 50 core hosts.
Ageing
CiQes
Company
ConnecQvity
Data
EducaQon
Energy
Food
Government
Health
Learning
Loyalty
Payments
Privacy
Resources
Transport
Travel
Water
Wealth
Work
IAPP Partnership Discussions on the future of privacy were undertaken in partnership with the IAPP. Events in the US, UK, Singapore and Canada plus insights from topics
such as the future of data have all added more views from around the world.
Ini0al Perspec0ves Q4 2014
Global Discussions Q1/2 2015
Insight Synthesis Q3 2015
Sharing Output Q4 2015
The Future of Privacy | The Emerging View This document provides an overview of what we heard from mul0ple expert voices around the world – on the future of privacy, how it is changing, what is
driving this change and how it may evolve over the next decade.
Six Key Themes Across the mul0ple discussions, issues related to privacy
seem to be touching upon and connec0ng with six underlying, and interwoven, themes with different emphasis in different countries.
The Increasing Value of Data
Data Ownership
Changing Nature of Privacy
Shi^ing Public
Percep0ons Managing Data Risk
New Models and Behaviours
The Increasing Value of Data
The Increasing Value of Data As organisa0ons grab more data, it becomes a currency with a value and a
price: It therefore requires marketplaces – transparent ecosystems for trading data -‐ so anything that is informa0on is represented in data marketplaces.
Knowing The Unknown By 2020 people and connected objects will generate 40 trillion gigabytes of
data that will have an impact on daily life in one way or another. This data will make known about us things that were previously unknown or unknowable.
Value of Data There is undoubtedly a huge economic incen0ve to generate and collect data from whatever sources it becomes available. As more data from more things becomes available, we can expect to see a data “land grab” by organisa0ons.
Data Darwinism Data is a new form of power: Corporate consolida0on places data in the hands of a few who are able to dictate terms above others. Governments correspondingly have less power as they have less access to key data.
A Data Marketplace Data is a currency, it has a value and a price, and therefore requires a market place. An ecosystem for trading data is emerging and anything
that is informa0on is represented in a new data marketplace.
Privacy as CompeQQon Privacy is not about the individual – it is all about the value of data.
Therefore we will see increasing data fragmenta0on as companies seek to use data for compe00ve advantage and create new barriers to entry.
Privacy Visibility The security industry has been es0mated to be worth $350 Billion in
the US alone; security is a sophis0cated and maturing market. The ‘privacy industry’ by contrast is hardly recognizable at all.
Personally Curated Data ‘Personally curated’ sources of data will have higher value simply due to the fact that they will represent the actual wishes and desires of an individual,
rather than the presumed wishes and desires based on derived data.
QuanQfied Value The power of data is in the hands of those who are able to organise it.
But who will be able to define what is fully accurate and true informa0on before it can be quan0fied and therefore have value?
The Changing Nature of Privacy
The Changing Nature of Privacy More interna0onal frameworks seek to govern the Internet, protect the vulnerable and secure personal data: The balance between government protec0on, security, personal privacy and public good is a poli0cal issue.
Individual Control New disrup0ve providers are seeking to put the individual in control of their personal data. In the process, they are seeking to dis-‐intermediate
data-‐intensive businesses from their exis0ng sources of data.
Public Privacy The regulated press / unregulated Internet con0nue to push the boundaries of informa0on sharing: Everyone’s personal informa0on is in the public domain, but there are differing cultural expecta0ons about what cons0tutes privacy.
Privacy for the Next GeneraQon With 1/3 of Internet users under 18, adult regula0on struggles to protect the
young while giving them authen0c expression. In-‐built defaults and sophis0cated assessments seek to mi0gate risk but with no major shi^.
Connected PredicQon Led by healthcare, we move from disparate, under-‐u0lized data sources to real-‐0me synthesis of mul0ple data plalorms with improved accuracy and speed. Predic0ve analy0cs drives hyper-‐personaliza0on and early ac0on.
Diversity of State Powers As targeted monitoring replaces broad mass-‐intercep0on, more prevalent and robust collec0on of personal data by states in many regions is increasingly subject to interna0onal security frameworks. But others do not comply.
The Many Faces of Privacy Different interpreta0ons of privacy, many from different cultures, challenge exis0ng models. Global frameworks may become more consistent while
implementa0ons are localised and diverse, making 'privacy borders' a reality.
Data Ownership
Data Ownership Individuals recognize the value of their digital shadows, privacy agents and data brokers curate clients’ data while personal data stores give us control of
our informa0on: We retain more ownership of data and opt to share it.
MiData In the future, customers will retain full ownership of their own consumer data in machine-‐readable format, which they then opt to share with merchants.
Some customers will hire ‘personal data managers’ to make this easy.
Data Curators Personal Informa0on Managers grow in number and seek to manage and protect both ‘free’ individual data sets and aggregated data:
“If you are not paying for a product, you are the product.”
Masters of Our Data In 2025 there will be a seamless border between digital and real where the digital truth becomes the real truth. We should increase awareness
of our digital shadow becoming ‘masters of our data’.
Personal Data Store Led by developments in authen0ca0on systems, new personal data plalorms migrate into the world of marke0ng. These lead to seamless and universally accepted creden0als stores that share data with mul0ple brand partners.
Owning Your Digital Shadow Consumers are increasingly aware of the value of their
digital footprints. This drives the desire for greater control of personal data, balancing convenience and benefit.
CiQzen-‐centric Data Some see the inevitability of a ci0zen-‐centric data eco-‐system that empowers individuals with control and visibility over all data created by, or impac0ng on,
them, including data a^er life – the onward usage of inherited data.
ShiZing Public PercepQons
ShiZing Public PercepQons Privacy becomes a mainstream issue with ci0zens more aware of how their data is being used. What is private and what is public blurs but many seek
to have greater influence over how their data is collected and used.
Privacy is a Public Issue The public’s percep0on of the threats to privacy, personal freedom and autonomy is growing. Privacy has already emerged beyond a niche, specialist concern to being a mainstream public issue.
Growing Distrust Growing awareness and distrust will increasingly become a factor in
decision making for ordinary people – decisions about the products we use or abandon, the brands we associate with, the poli0cal leaders we elect.
Data-‐conscious CiQzens The need for ci0zens to understand how data is used will grow. Educa0on will be needed to combat new inequali0es, and enable people to fully take part in
society: understanding data will become part of civic self-‐consciousness.
Data ExploitaQon If it is discovered that companies exploit data that has been collected without genuine permission and use it in ways that have no societal benefit there is a risk that a nega0ve public response will limit opportuni0es for everyone.
ShiZing Power To The Individual This poten0al for economic disrup0on to come to the aid of privacy
by shi^ing power over data from the organisa0on to the individual is one of the most significant emerging trends.
Informed Consent Given complex data flows, informed consent is increasingly challenging –
so an alterna0ve is needed: An accountability governance model incorpora0ng ethics and respeclul data use is a compelling subs0tute or complement.
Privacy as a Luxury The right to privacy becomes more difficult to enforce, but the wealthy
con0nue to take ac0on when informa0on is misused. Privacy could be a luxury in the near term – but may become more widely available in the longer term.
Privacy EducaQon Race Programmes of ‘privacy educa0on’ emerge to combat mass-‐desensi0sa0on to the sharing of private data. However this will not prevent ‘privacy coronaries’
– the result of returning to bad habits a^er privacy viola0ons.
Managing Data Risk
Managing Data Risk In an increasingly connected world, risks also rise. Protec0on against hacking, cyber-‐aKacks, fraud, counterfei0ng all drive greater security, data management and regula0on -‐ but this is balanced by the pull of convenience and data sharing.
Data ProtecQon Protec0on against hackers remains weak with security so^ware con0nuously behind the curve. Wider concerns have been raised by mass surveillance and a growing number of countries now see cyber space as a new stage for baKle.
Rising Cyber Security Greater interconnec0vity and the Internet of Things creates new
vulnerabili0es for governments and corpora0ons -‐ as the unscrupulous and the criminal increasingly seek to exploit weakness and destroy systems.
Broader Cyber Terrorism Cyber aKacks move from the virtual world to the physical -‐ aKacking planes, u0li0es and industrial systems. Some see a corresponding slow down in the adop0on of sensors and wider use of private encryp0on technologies.
Data Criminality Data becomes the currency of criminal opportunity -‐ which supports, feeds and
innovates opera0ons such as human trafficking, fraud, counterfeit, drugs, pros0tu0on, and paedophilia – thus blurring the vision of an open data utopia.
Privacy Agents The difficul0es in extrac0ng value from our data while protec0ng our privacy sees the emergence of new professions. Look out for ‘privacy agents’ and ‘data brokers’ ac0ng as intermediaries and managing the flow of our data.
Security vs. Convenience The balance between convenience and security with border controls coming under increasing strain as they deal with huge volumes of people travelling
interna0onally at a 0me when fears around global security are high.
Privacy Crimes: Data Hostages Criminals have always invaded privacy, but new threats emerge as our digital selves increasingly become poten0ally valuable hostages. Stronger privacy
rights will need to be backed by knowledge of where we are most vulnerable.
Data Risk Management As privacy and data are subsumed within wider risk frameworks,
greater self-‐regula0on and more in-‐house data risk management will lead to deeper integra0on of engineering, privacy and policy.
The Rise of Machines The growth in the intelligence and capabili0es of machines presents both a threat and an opportunity: Greater AI and automa0on free up 0me, but also
threaten jobs -‐ both low skilled and managerial / administra0ve roles.
To Have and To Hold Porous access controls and the risk of future liabili0es highlight to many that there is benefit in destroying data that is not needed
– especially HR, customer and pricing informa0on.
Under the Skin As wearables and implants become commonplace and workforces are
freelance and porlolio-‐based, the ability of organisa0ons to own or control corporate informa0on held on personal devices is significantly diminished.
Technology to the Rescue The machines will help us manage our privacy: Technology will
enable people to protect themselves and killer apps will let people collect and share their data for the ‘public good’.
New Models and Behaviours
New Models and Behaviours From the shi^s seen to be taking place, there are a number of new models and behavious emerging: These fall into the three interconnected spheres
of poten0al change in social, organisa0onal and legal norms.
Social
Organisa0onal
Legal
New Models and Behaviours -‐ Social ImplicaQons
New Models and Behaviours – Social ImplicaQons With more open data generated by governments, individuals and
organisa0ons, many focus resources on combining and mining disparate data sets to highlight and act on opportuni0es for posi0ve social change.
Paying for Privacy We do not currently understand the value of our data or how it is
being used and so are giving it away. In the future we might be willing to pay more for our privacy than the data we share.
Sharing Secrets In exchange for beKer service or an improved quality of life, we increasingly recognise exactly what personal informa0on
we are prepared to share and who to share it with.
Securing Sustainable Society The benefits of making data open, especially for solving some of society’s greatest problems, will drive governments to insist that certain private data sets are made public, democra0sing data-‐use and driving social innova0on.
Public Data Economically connected data can play a significant role that will benefit not
only private commerce but also na0onal economies and their ci0zens. Analysis can provide the public sector with a new world of performance poten0al.
The Third Space for Data By 2025, a new place for data emerges -‐ between public and private. This is driven by "data philanthropy" and the dona0on of data for social purposes
such as healthcare and improving our ability to respond to disasters.
Data and Democracy Many ques0on whether privacy will enable the democra0c process: Is there privacy without democracy? Ci0zen data is increasingly publicly used and
shared by governments as an instrument of social change.
Living in Glass Houses If we get it right, we will be more comfortable to metaphorically ‘live in a glass house’, allowing our personal informa0on to be widely accessible in return for the understanding that this enables a richer, more ‘aKuned’ life as a result.
The Privacy Illusion There is a rising general belief in the right to data privacy and the right
to data security. Both are illusions: Security is impossible without increased monitoring -‐ and so true privacy is also impossible.
OrganisaQonal ImplicaQons
New Models and Behaviours – OrganisaQonal ImplicaQons As privacy becomes ever more present in the corporate risk profile, trust is ever more easily lost. Being proac0ve in dialogue with both regulators
and the public becomes a priority for many leading organisa0ons.
Data Ethics and Trust As trust increasingly drives success, organisa0ons will seek to make data ethics a focus. In order to engage and gain buy-‐in from governments and consumers
alike, trust in data usage will become a core plalorm for differen0a0on.
Digital Commons The ‘digital commons’ will con0nue to grow, empowering more and more
ci0zens and consumers to take maKers into their own hands, such as deploying end-‐to-‐end encryp0on, anonymizers and by “watching the watchers”.
I, Robot We will see urgent debate on the accountability and ethicacy of machines and systems making autonomous decisions, using our data. Solu0ons will have profound implica0ons for the development of data-‐driven technologies.
Global vs. Local Technology is by its very nature global and data does not respect na0onal
boundaries. Can na0on states con0nue to set the rules or will tension in global interoperability drive us to design for global standards but with localised use?
Linkability of Open Data No data will be truly anonymous: Current open data prac0ce assumes that
technology will be not be able to relink it to its source. This is not the case and so, by 2025, we will see different levels of de-‐iden0fica0on.
Data Impurity As more decisions are made with reference to Big Data analysis -‐ the ques0on of if data is well collected, or manipulated, will become more important. ‘Data standards’ will emerge to cope with growing complexity of merging data sets.
Legal ImplicaQons
New Models and Behaviours -‐ Legal ImplicaQons The push towards global standards, protocols and greater transparency
is a focus for many na0ons, but others choose to opt-‐out of interna0onal agreements and go their own way.
Corporate Self-‐RegulaQon Faced with greater regula0on of data use and more pressure from the boKom
up, companies are increasingly open about their ac0vi0es – within limits. Greater transparency is valued but seeing the real truth is s0ll a challenge.
Stronger RegulaQon Regula0on will get tougher: Policy makers will act to toughen
laws, even though they move at geological speeds compared to the rate of technology development.
Patchwork LegislaQon A diversity of regula0on and standards from state to state con0nues to
restrict policing and provide opportuni0es for exploita0on. But cross-‐border trust and coopera0on will s0ll present barriers for many na0ons.
Privacy Rights We see more robust privacy rights beKer suited to the digital age. These may include rights to anonymity and personal data ownership, but also innova0ve
rights to ‘digital self-‐determina0on’ or ‘the right to change our minds’.
Crypto-‐Anarchists Considera0on is increasingly given to empowering totalitarianism through surveillance to help deal with crypto-‐anarchists. Totalitarian surveillance is seen as par0cularly necessary as emerging economies drive rapid change.
Agreement on Use Not CollecQon The best approach to future proof access to big data is to ensure there is
agreement around its use, not its collec0on. We need a core reference dataset to iden0fy the data that is most effec0ve in driving social and economic gain.
Global Privacy Treaty As different regions all seek to progress data regula0on via the likes of APEC and the EU, the emergence of a global privacy framework is championed by those looking for control and transparency: A Geneva Conven0on for privacy?
Data Islands Some economies seek to maintain closed or parallel networks, independent of global systems. Different approaches from the standard are developed for
major popula0on centres and, in 0me, could have global reach.
Some QuesQons
Some QuesQons From these discussions on and around the future of privacy, there seems to be a number of key ques0ons to be addressed by governments, companies and individuals – some global and some more local or regional in focus.
1. Will we find and agree common approaches for data collec0on and use globally, or will regional and na0onal priori0es be the norm for coopera0on for the next decade?
2. As the public recogni0on of the ownership and value of data increases, will we share more or less about ourselves in 2025 ?
3. If everything is truly connected and machines and algorythms make more decisions, how will ethics and judgment of risk be applied -‐ and who will do the coding?
4. Will we s0ll be talking about privacy in 10 years 0me, or will we have evolved our understanding and separated out how we see security, data ownership and insight?
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