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Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) - Future Perspectives By Colonel Imtiaz ul Haque (Retired), Compiled in April 2012 e mail: [email protected]

Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

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Page 1: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) - Future Perspectives

By Colonel Imtiaz ul Haque (Retired), Compiled in April 2012 e mail: [email protected]

Page 2: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

2

IN THE NAMEIN THE NAMEOF ALLAH ,THE MOSTOF ALLAH ,THE MOST

COMPASSIONATE ,COMPASSIONATE ,THE MOST THE MOST MERCIFULMERCIFUL

Page 3: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Introduction• The accession of GB to Pakistan in 1947, is a unique case, as the

people of GB having liberated 28000 Sq miles of an area and unconditionally ceded to Pakistan.

• However, people of GB are suffering from identity crisis for last six and half decades because its future has been linked with resolution of Kashmir issue.

• In the light of Karachi Agreement 1949, the region so far is governed by Federal Government .

• Absence of representation of GB in Parliament of Pakistan reflects rule with out representation.

• Above has led to sense of political deprivation in the masses, that needs to be addressed.

Page 4: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Aim

To analyze the issue of constitutional and political

status of Gilgit- Baltistan, keeping in view its historical

background, relevant treaties and agreements and

decisions of apex courts’, with a view to offer viable

recommendation for better integration of GB with

Pakistan.

Page 5: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Sequence

• Part - 1. Recapitulation of history and relevant

treaties and agreements.

• Part - 2. Decisions of apex courts.

• Part - 3. GB Boundaries

• Part - 4. Political Status of GB – future perspectives.

• Part - 5. Conclusions from history, treaties,

agreements and Courts’ decisions.

• Part - 6. Recommendations

Page 6: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Re Captulation - Demographic Realties of GB Region

Page 7: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Gilgit Baltistan and Neighbours

Page 8: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Gilgit Baltistan - Political Boundaries

Page 9: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Population – 1.3 MillionPo

pula

tion

in la

kh

Districts

Page 10: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Ethnic GroupsPo

pula

tion

in la

kh

Tribes

Page 11: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Languages Po

pula

tion

in la

kh

Languages

Page 12: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Sectarian CompositionPe

rcen

tage

Sects

Page 13: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

MAJOR CONCLUSIONS

Page 14: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Conclusions from Historical Perspective • The ancient history of GB is not much in recorded form. In

era BC, the region was ruled by imperial powers from Central

Asia and China.

• However medieval age is signified by rule of selected local

dynasties in respective valleys, which continued till

independence in 1947 and even thereafter up to 72.

• The British interest in this region grew in the latter half of 19th

Century, in view of the threat posed to British India by Czarist

Russia and later communism.

Page 15: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Conclusions from Historical Perspective • Sequel to the treaty of Amritsar in 1846, the Maharaja of Kashmir

enjoyed a suzerain status over Rulers of GB. However, the

Maharaja’s de facto rule in no way justifies the claim of Maharaja

of Kashmir over GB.

• On the eve of independence in 1947, the British handed over GB

to Maharaja of Kashmir in the light of the 1935 Lease Agreement,

disregarding popular sentiments of local inhabitants, which was

not acceptable to the masses.

• This led to the war of liberation of GB in Nov 1947 and its

accession to Pakistan

Page 16: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Conclusions from Historical Perspective

• The governance arrangements and administrative reforms in

post independence period have remained far below the

expectations of the people. From Frontiers Crimes Regulations

to Presidential Order 2009, the concessions and relief has been

gradual and in bits and pieces, yet not complete.

• GB Empowerment and Self Governance Order 2009, is a

comprehensive package from administrative and governance

point of view, yet the package does not ensure integration of

GB with Pakistan.

Page 17: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Conclusions from Historical Perspective • The unresolved political status of GB for last six and half

decades and linking it with Kashmir Issue has resulted into

sense of political deprivation in the masses.

• The public opinion of people of GB has neither been obtained

nor a consensus has been developed to resolve the issues

regarding its political status and citizenry rights.

• Besides undetermined political status, sectarian divide, poor

communication infrastructure, economic inactivity and non

exploitation of its natural resources remain major governance

issues, faced by Gilgit-Baltistan.

Page 18: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Conclusions from Treaties and Agreements

Page 19: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Treaty of Lahore -1846

Article 4. the Maharajah cedes to the Honorable

Company, in perpetual sovereignty, as equivalent for one

crore of Rupees, all his forts, territories, rights and

interests in the hill countries, which are situated between

the Rivers Beas and Indus, including the Provinces of

Kashmir and Hazara.

Page 20: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Treaty of Amritsar-1846

• Article 1. The British Government transfers to Maharajah

Gulab Singh and the heirs all the hilly or mountainous

country with its dependencies situated to the eastward of

the River Indus and the westward of the River Ravi, being

part of the territories, ceded to the British Government

by the Lahore State according to the Treaty of Lahore,

dated 9th March, 1846.

Page 21: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Treaty of Lahore and Amritsar 1846.

• Comments. Surrendering to the Government of British India,

the territories situated between the Rivers Beas and Indus, by

Sikh rulers of Lahore, in no way include Gilgit-Baltistan, as the

monarchial dynasties of here enjoyed autonomous status.

Moreover, 80 percent of Gilgit-Baltistan lied towards North

and West of Indus River; hence, technically also Gilgit-

Baltistan did not form part of this Treaty. Likewise, the

provisions of this Treaty also, do not make sense for the same

reason as spelt out in Treaty of Lahore.

Page 22: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Treaty of Amritsar-1846

Page 23: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Lease of Gilgit-26 March 1935

• Article I - The Viceroy of India may at any time after the

ratification of this agreement assume the civil and military

administration of so much of the Wazarat of Gilgit province of

the State of Jammu and Kashmir as lies beyond the right bank

of the river Indus, but the said territory shall continue to be

included within the dominions of His Highness the Maharaja

of Jammu and Kashmir.

Page 24: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Lease of Gilgit-26 March 1935

• Article II – In recognition of the fact that the said territory

continues to be included within the dominion of His Highness

the Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir, salutes and customary

honours shall be paid in the said territory. The flag of His

Highness will be flown at the official headquarters of the

agency throughout the year.

Page 25: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Lease of Gilgit-26 March 1935.

Comments. This treaty was under peculiar geo political

environment, i.e. to exercise check on the Russian communist

expansion, entering in to British India. At the time of the

deal, the Maharaja of Kashmir enjoyed a de-facto suzerain

status and not de-jure status over princely States of Gilgit-

Baltistan. Hence, this agreement does not make Gilgit-

Baltistan a constituency of Kashmir.

Page 26: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Karachi Agreement-1949

• Matters within the purview of the Government of Pakistan.• Defence • Foreign policy of AK.• Negotiations with the UNCIP.• Publicity in foreign countries and in Pakistan.• Co ordination of relief and rehabilitation of refugees.• Co ordination of publicity in connection with plebiscite.• All activities within Pakistan regarding Kashmir such as

procurement of food, civil supplies running of refugee camps and medical aid.

• All affairs of Gilgit - Ladakh under the control of Political Agent.

Page 27: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Karachi Agreement 1949

Comments. While assigning the responsibilities with

reference to matters relating to Kashmir, within the purview

of the Government of Pakistan, Gilgit-Baltistan was

administratively placed under the control of Federal

Government of Pakistan. This agreement can be viewed as

the first formal, in principle recognition of Gilgit-Baltistan,

being part of Jammu and Kashmir. No consensus of people of

GB was sought in this regards.

Page 28: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

United Nations Resolutions

Comments

Whereas United Nations Commission for India and

Pakistan (UNCIP) in all its resolutions stressed on

holding of immediate cease-fire by India and

Pakistan, reduction of forces level in Kashmir and

holding of plebiscite. There is no specific mention of

Gilgit-Baltistan in any of the resolution

Page 29: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Sino-pak Border Agreement 1963

Article 6. After the settlement of the Kashmir dispute

between Pakistan and India, the sovereign authority

concerned will reopen negotiations with China on the

boundary as described in.

In the event of the sovereign authority being Pakistan, the

provisions of the present agreement shall be maintained.

Page 30: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Sino-pak Border Agreement 1963

Comments. This agreement can be seen as the second official

declaration by Pakistan, making Gilgit-Baltistan part of Jammu

and Kashmir, as the two parties agreed that after the

settlement of the Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and

India, the sovereign authority concerned will reopen

negotiations with the Government of the People’s Republic of

China on the boundary as described in this agreement.

Page 31: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Conclusions From Courts’ Verdicts

Page 32: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Aj&k High Court’s Ruling18 March 1993

AK Government to immediately assume the

administrative control of the Northern Areas and to

annex it within it’s the administration, creating

administrative and judicial machinery and provide

due representation to people of GB in the legislative

assembly and council of AK.

Page 33: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

AJ and K High Court’s Ruling 18 March 1993

Comments. The decision has based on the historical

evidences regarding pattern of rule of GB after 1840.

The Court however, did not take into account, the history of

GB prior to 1840, as the area was ruled on monarchial

pattern, for about one thousand years by local rulers.

Moreover, the demographic realities and the public opinion

were totally disregarded.

Page 34: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

AJ&K High Supreme Court Ruling 14 March 1994

The Court viewed that the High Court of Azad

Kashmir did not have jurisdiction of hearing the case.

Thus the High Court’s decision was not upheld by the

Supreme Court AJ and K.

Page 35: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Ruling of Supreme Court of PakistanFederation of Pakistan to initiate appropriate administrative

and legislative measures within a period of six months, from

May 28, 1999, to make necessary amendments in the Pakistan

Constitution and relevant statutes, orders, rules, and

notifications to ensure that the people of Northern Areas enjoy

their fundamental rights to be governed through their chosen

representatives and to have access to justice through an

independent judiciary, inter alia, for enforcement of their

fundamental rights guaranteed under the Pakistan Constitution.

Page 36: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Ruling of Supreme Court Pakistan 29 May 1999

Comments. The Court’s directive to Government of Pakistan

to, initiates administrative and legislative steps by making

necessary amendments in the Constitution and statutes, to

ensure that the people of Gilgit-Baltistan enjoy fundamental

rights, can be considered as landmark decision relating to

determination of political and constitutional status of 1.3

million inhabitants of Gilgit-Baltistan

Page 37: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Conclusion from Boundaries of GB• Cis and trans borders of GB have been changed time to time.

• Mir of Hunza was deprived of its territories in China and

Wakhan corridor by Col Durand in 1892.

• Chitral was linked with KPK for administrative convenience.

• The cis frontier border of Diamer with Kohistan and Ghizar with

Chitral are disputed.

• Present trans frontier border frontiers with China are

consequent to Pak-China Agreement of 1963.

• Boundary with IOK is demarcated by LOC after Simla

Agreement and Line of Actual Contact in Siachen area.

Page 38: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Whether Gilgit-Baltistan is a Part of Jammu & Kashmir ?

Page 39: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Arguments in Support• GB was part of the State of J&K prior to 15 August 1947,

divided into Jammu, Kashmir, Laddakh and Gilgit provinces.• Gilgit leased out for 60 years by Maharaja which ended on 1st

August 1947 and areas were restored to the State.• Under Karachi Agreement wherein certain functions were

distributed and administrative control of GB was entrusted to Government of Pakistan , temporarily.

• The said agreement lapsed on enforcement of Aj&k Govt Act 170, substituted by Act, 1974

• The GB as part of J&K acknowledged in UN Resolutions, Sino-Pak Border Agreement of 1963, and Simla Agreement 1972.

• As per 1956, 1962 and 1973 Constitutions of Pakistan, GB did not forms part of territories included in Pakistan

Page 40: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Arguments in Support • As per census report of British India held in 1911, 1921, 1931,

and 1941, Northern Areas were shown part of J&K.• The record of settlement carried out in 1925, also shows

Northern Areas as part of Jammu and Kashmir State.• During the leased period, the flag of Jammu and Kashmir

remained hoisted in Gilgit; the right of exploration of minerals was vested with Maharaja of Kashmir. The Mirs of the princely state were awarded appointment letter by Maharaja and the rulers States paid annual tribute to Maharaja of Kashmir.

• As per maps issued by survey of Pakistan in 1954 and thereafter, GB shown as a part of Jammu and Kashmir.

Page 41: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Arguments in Support • As per Treaty of Lahore 1946 and Treaty of Amritsar Northern

Areas formed part of state of J&K.• Sir Muhammad Zafar ullah Khan, the then Foreign Minister of

Pakistan, speech in Security Council on January 16, 1948,• Section 7(i) (b) of the Independence Act 1947, being relevant

to point under consideration is reproduced as follow, “ As from the appointed day, the suzerainty of British over the Indian States shall lapse.

• The Mirs (rulers) were granted “Sanad” (Nomination / appointment letter) by to Maharaja of Kashmir.

Page 42: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Arguments Against the Motion• The history of GB prior to year1846 has been completely ignored.• The diversities emanating from customs, traditions, culture and caste are

ignored, nothing in common between GB and J&K except religion.• The geographical realities and hardships imposed by the terrain between

GB and J&K are not considered i.e. the traditional passes between GB and J&K remain blocked for better half of the year due to heavy snow.

• After liberating GB in 1947, the Revolutionary Command Council opted for Pakistan and not for J&K and asked Govt of Pakistan to take the GB in its administrative control.

• As per law, HR charter and norms the sons of the soil are the custodians of the land and to decide their own fate; that has already been given in favour of Pakistan, back in 1947 through accession letters by the Mirs and decision of Revolutionary Command Council.

• Maharaja of Kashmir enjoyed suzerainty only, over princely States of GB. No more Maharaja of Kashmir, no more J&K’s claim over GB.

• Agreements of colonial masters no more valid and authentic in post independence era.

Page 43: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Pattern of Governancein Pre and Post Independence Era

Page 44: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

44

1878 To 1950 Political Agent

1950 To 1986 Resident Commissioner

1986 To 1992 Administrator

1992 To 1994 Chief Commissioner

1994 To-date Chief Secretary

Politico-administrative Arrangements

Page 45: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

45

1970 NA Advisory Council with 14 members

1972 FCR abolished

1975 Re-named N.A Council with 18 members.

1994 Addition of seats (6 for men 2 for women) total 26. Post of

Deputy Chief Executive along with 3 to 5 Advisors were created.

1999 Re-named as NALC and Powers to legislate on 49 subjects, the

seat of Speaker & 3 women seats also added.

2004 6 seats of technocrats were created and women seats

were increased from 3 to 6 ( one from each district)

2007 Northern Areas Legislative Assembly

2009 GBLA, GB empowerment order 2009

Legislative Evolution

Page 46: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self Governance Order, 2009.

• The name, GB instead of the Northern Areas of Pakistan.• Appointment of Governor, the Chief Minister and 6 ministers.• Right to be ruled by own elected representatives and

provision of fundamental rights as guaranteed in 1973 Constitution

• Elected legislative assembly headed by speaker, consisting of 24 elected members, 6 women and 3 technocrats, have powers to make laws on 61 subjects.

• GB Cabinet, Chief Minister, assisted by six ministers and two advisers.

Page 47: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and Self Governance Order, 2009

•Establishment of Public Service Commission, the Chief Election

Commissioner and the Auditor General.

•Creation of GB Consolidated Fund .

• Establishment of 15 member GB Council, (just like Senate) with Prime

Minister as its Chairman, Governor, Chief Minister,6 nominees from GBLA

and 6 nominees by Prime Minister of Pakistan, from down country, as its

members

•Establishment of Supreme Appellate Court as Supreme Court and Chief

Court in place of High Court.

Page 48: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

PUBLIC OPINION OBTAINED THROUGH QUESTIONNAIRE

Page 49: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

QUESTIONNAIRE

• People of GB face identity crisis, due to undetermined

political / constitutional status.

• GB is historically a part of J&K.

• GB is part of Pakistan, as its people liberated it in November

1947 and ceded to Pakistan.

• An autonomous and independent GB is a viable option.

• GB Empowerment and Self Governance Order2009, is a

comprehensive package and addresses the people’s sense of

political deprivation, admin and governance issues.

Page 50: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

QUESTIONNAIRE

• Interim provincial status to GB, right of vote and due

representation in the Parliament of Pakistan, is a

viable and popular option.

• Ending of 1949 Karachi agreement and merging of GB

with AJ&K is a viable option.

• GB should form part of KPK province, on the basis of

its geographical proximity.

Page 51: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

District/Region Wise Profile of Respondents

• Gilgit District - 145 respondents

• Hunza Nagar District - 40 do

• Ghizer District - 28 do

• Diamer District - 35 do

• Astor District - 17 do

• Baltistan Region - 29 do

• Total - 294 do

Page 52: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Profession Wise Profile of Respondents

• Members GBLA - 10 respondents

• Lawyers - 30 do

• Politicians - 36 do

• Clergy - 38 do

• General educated people - 60 do

• University students - 120 do

• TOTAL - 294 do

Page 53: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Question wise Responses

Page 54: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Q 1: People of GB face identity crisis, due to undetermined political/constitutional status.

Page 55: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Q2. GB is historically a part of Jammu and Kashmir.

Page 56: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Q 3: GB is part of Pakistan as people of GB liberated it in Nov 1947 and ceded to Pakistan.

Page 57: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Q 4: An autonomous and independent GB is a viable option.

Page 58: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Q 5: GB Empowerment and Self Governance Order2009 is a comprehensive package and addresses the people’s sense of political deprivation, administrative and governance issues.

Page 59: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Q 6: Interim provincial status to GB, right of vote and due representation in the parliament of Pakistan is a

viable and popular option.

Page 60: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Q 7: Ending of 1949 Karachi agreement and merging of GB with AJ&K is a viable option.

Page 61: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Q 8: GB should form part of KPK province, on the basis of its geographical proximity.

Page 62: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Summary- Over All Result

Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know

Q-1 127 122 8 18 16 3

Q-2 73 84 9 59 84 5

Q-3 105 107 18 1 33 5

Q-4 57 76 60 63 33 5

Q-5 19 97 53 70 47 8

Q-6 119 109 32 18 12 4

Q-7 14 68 22 81 96 13

Q-8 8 13 14 70 185 4

Page 63: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

GB’s Political Status – Future Perspectives

Page 64: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Importance of GB for Pakistan• GB lies at the junction point of four countries

Pakistan, China, Afghanistan and India. CARs are at stretch of only 12 km across Wakhan strip .

• KKH, linking Pakistan with China, is of immense strategic importance and defence value, providing a safe and reliable land route, which can be used as one of the alternative main supply lines, in case of a naval blockade.

• KKH is equally important for China, offering a trade route for its import / export through sea ports of Gawadar and Karachi (Pak-China Economic Corridor).

Page 65: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Importance of GB for Pakistan• As situation in Afghanistan remains turbulent,

fragile and uncertain, making land route access to CARs is unsafe; GB offer safer access to CARs, via China or from Hunza and Ghizer valleys, across narrow Wakhan strip.

• Indus and its tributaries serve as life line arteries for agriculture and power generation of Pakistan. Although Indus originates from Tibetan mountains in IOK but bulk of its water originates from the mountain and glaciers of GB.

Page 66: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Importance of GB for Pakistan

• India can effectively regulate or block other rivers,

Jhelum, Neelum and Chenab, but can’t do much

with Indus.

• GB has the capacity to meet the entire electricity

requirement of Pakistan (40,000 MW) and

enormous potential for storage of water.

Page 67: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Option for Determining Political Future of GB

• Option 1. Interim provincial status with right of vote and

representation in the Parliament of Pakistan.

• Option 2. Ending Karachi Agreement 1949 and merging

GB With AJ&K.

• Option 3. Providing status akin to AJ&K.

• Option 4. GB as 5th Constitutional Province of Pakistan with

right of vote and representation in the its Assemblies .

Page 68: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Option 1.Interim provincial status with right of vote and

representation in Parliament - Advantages• The sense of political deprivation of the people of

GB, with regards to identity and representation, will be addressed and the future of GB determined as per their wishes.

• The option ensures better integration of GB with the mainstream political system of Pakistan.

• Kashmiri leadership, India and United Nations can be satisfied, as it will be “interim/provisional status”, i.e. retaining the disputed status of GB as part of Jammu and Kashmir.

Page 69: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Option 1 - Advantages

• Stronger stance to answer India and world as India has already given representation to J&K and Ladakh.

• As the settlement of Kashmir issue, as per UN resolutions is difficult in foreseeable future, relief could be provided to people of GB, yet retaining the flexibility of use of vote of GB in favor of Pakistan in case of a plebiscite.

• If Pakistan at some stage feels that the ‘status quo’ is the future of Kashmir issue, this option would serve better the interest of Pakistan.

Page 70: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Option 1 - Advantages

• In case the plebiscite in which third option , independent Jammu and Kashmir materialize, the people of GB will still vote for Pakistan.

• The options require minimum organizational and structural changes.

• The uprising nationalist movement and centrifugal tendencies will be defeated.

• The option has over whelming support of the people of GB.

Page 71: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Option 1 – Dis advantages

• The pro Pakistani Kashmiri political leadership on the both sides of the line of control may not like it.

• A step amounting to weakening Pakistan’s original stance with respect to Kashmir issue.

• It can be termed a step towards recognition of status quo, which is more of an Indian desire.

• The political status of GB yet remains in flux and hang on and the original desire/demand of the people for accession to Pakistan is not fully addressed.

• As the public opinion keeps on changing, this move may become counterproductive and may ignite support for independent Gilgit-Baltistan at a later stage.

Page 72: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Option 2. Ending Karachi Agreement and Merging Gilgit-

Baltistan With AJ&K - Advantages

• Supplements Pakistan’s principal stance regarding resolution

of Kashmir issue through plebiscite, as per UN resolutions.

• Political leadership on both sides of Line of Control will

welcome this step.

• The people of Gilgit-Baltistan, belonging to Kashmiri caste and

possibly some percentage of people from Diamer and Astor

district may welcome this step.

Page 73: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Option 2.

Ending Karachi Agreement and Merging Gilgit-Baltistan With AJ&K – Dis Advantages

• The sense of political deprivation of people of Gilgit-Baltistan

will increase.

• Will have shocking effect for the majority of the people of

Gilgit-Baltistan, whose forefathers opted for Pakistan in 1947.

• Shia, Ismaili and Noorbaksh, who form 75% of the population

of Gilgit-Baltistan, will definitely resist it.

• Nationalist and pro-independence trends will be encouraged.

Page 74: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Option 2.Ending Karachi Agreement and Merging Gilgit-

Baltistan With AJ&K – Dis Advantages

• India’s stance about Gilgit-Baltistan as their part, will be

justified.

• The political leadership of Azad Jammu and Kashmir will

dominate and Gilgit-Baltistan will become a minority in Azad

Jammu and Kashmir Assembly.

• More governance and administrative inconveniences due to

distances and communication problems of GB with Azad

Jammu.

Page 75: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Option 3 Providing Status Akin To AJ&K - Advantages

• The issues relating to self-governance and internal autonomy

will be better addressed as Gilgit-Baltistan will attain status of

state akin to that of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, having own

interim Constitution, flag, President, Prime Minister, the

Assembly and judicial infrastructure.

• Minimum organizational and structural changes will be

required, as existing infra-structure is almost on the similar

lines except the change of names /appointments, i.e.

President and prime Minister instead of Governor and Chief

Minister.

Page 76: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Option 3 Providing Status Akin To AJ&K - Dis advantages

• The basic demand of the people, i.e. integration with Pakistan would

remain un- addressed.

• A State for 1.3 million people of Gilgit-Baltistan may not be a viable

administrative and financial option.

• Autonomous State status has never been a demand of people of GB.

• The pro Pakistani Kashmiri leadership on both sides of line of control will

bitterly oppose it.

• It will be difficult for Pakistan to justify its principle stance in UN.

• Nationalist parties striving for autonomous State will be encouraged.

• The sectarian and mal governance will be pronounced in the absence of

supervision and a neutral monitor .

Page 77: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Option 4 GB as 5th Constitutional Province of Pakistan - Advantages

• Admissible under Art. 1 (2) (d) of 1973 Constitution which

says, “Territories of Pakistan shall comprise, such States and

territories as are or maybe included in Pakistan, whether by

accession or otherwise”

• To the best satisfaction of people of GB.

• Issue of GB political future settled once for all.

• Pakistan has a justified reason to do it, when see in historical

perspective.

Page 78: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Option 4 5th Constitutional Province of Pakistan – Disadvantages

• U turn on principle stance and Kashmir Policy.

• Unacceptable to Kashmiris on both sides of LOC, amounting

to annoying them and loosing their support for accession to

Pakistan.

• Difficult to justify because of Karachi Agreement and Sino –

Pak Border Agreement 1963.

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Recommendations

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Core Recommendation – Interim Integration of Gilgit-Baltistan with Pakistan

The Supreme Court of Pakistan in its landmark decision on the subject has underlined a course of action to solve the issue. With the enforcement of Gilgit-Baltistan (Empowerment and Self Governance) Order, 2009, a portion of the Supreme Court’s judgment order has been fulfilled. However, issue relating to representation of Gilgit-Baltistan in the Parliament of Pakistan, ensuring better integration of Gilgit-Baltistan with the main stream politics of Pakistan, is yet to be decided by the Parliament and Executive. The establishment of the Gilgit-Baltistan Council is a step in this direction, but more of symbolic in nature. Ideally, the merger of Gilgit-Baltistan with Pakistan as its fifth province would bring an end to the identity crisis once for all. However, in view of the Government’s policy adopted so far, a complete policy shift may not be a viable option.

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Core Recommendation – Interim Integration of GB with Pakistan

In the prevailing context “interim provisional status to Gilgit-Baltistan with right of vote and representation in Parliament of Pakistan” is viewed as best possible option. For this purpose, necessary legislation and amendment in 1973 Constitution can be made, as permissible vide para 1 (2) (d) of the Constitution of Pakistan 1973. Since representation in the National Assembly is based on population ratio, conveniently three elected representatives, one each for three divisions, i.e. Gilgit, Baltistan and Diamer respectively, can be managed. One women seat can be kept for GB.

Page 82: Determining the Political Status of Gilgit-Baltistan - Future Perspective

Core Recommendation – Interim Integration of GB with Pakistan

For representation in the Senate of Pakistan, Gilgit-Baltistan

may be considered as an interim federating unit with due

recognition and representation as in case of other federating

units. Pakistan can justify its stance, as India has already

extended its constitutional jurisdiction to the part of Jammu

and Kashmir under its administrative control, including

Laddakh region. Moreover, Kashmir issue also remains unhurt

due to interim nature of the provision.

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Subsidiary Recommendations• Extension of bench of Supreme Court of Pakistan, bringing GB

under wider judicial umbrella.• Establishment of institutions like office of Provincial Public Service

Commission, Provincial Ombudsman, office of Provincial Consolidated Fund, etc, as permissible under the Constitution of Pakistan 1973.

• Due representation of GB in Council of Common Interest, NFC award and other national level forums, having representation of federating units.

• Determination of due share / royalty of projects of national magnitude, like Diamer Basha Dam, Bunji hydel project and mineral, tourism and water resources.

• Safeguarding economic interests of GB in Pak-China Economic Corridor project.

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Strategy to Fight Menace of Sectarianism The awareness to the fact that people of GB have to live in

an environment of mutual co-existence is of utmost

important. Whereas, the overall responsibility of handling the

issue rests with the govt, the clergy and civil society also need

to play their role. There is a need to realize that the diversity

is a hard fact of modern societies. It is with the sense of

accommodation and tolerance that people of GB can have a

prosperous life. The performance of LEAs and Judiciary need

mark improvement.

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Development of CommunicationThe prosperity of GB is associated with better communication

links with the main land, Pakistan. For this purpose Karakorum

High Way which serves as life line artery, needs to be

maintained. The alternative road to Gilgit- Baltistan via Kaghan-

Naran- Babusar-Chilas, which is a short cut of 120 kilometer to

Gilgit from Islamabad. As the flight schedule to Gilgit and

Skardu are often disturbed by inclement weather, there is a

need to upgrade the existing airports and arrange for

passenger aircrafts capable of operating in all weather. This will

tremendously boost tourism in Gilgit-Baltistan

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Exploiting Potentials and Resources• Promotion of tourism• Exploration of mineral and natural resources• Exploiting the enormous potential of production of

hydro electricity• Development and promotion of cottage industry i.e.

fruit preservation, juices and beverages and handicrafts.

• Social Development through establishment of institutions like, a medical college, a poly technical college and a cadet college in each region.

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ConclusionSense of political deprivation of people of GB is a sour issue and requires immediate attention of political leader ship. An earnest effort has been put in to identify the nature and gravity of the problem and suggest measures to address the issue. All relevant factors, including historical aspect, pertinent treaties and agreements, the court’s decisions and public opinion, have been analysed before drawing conclusions and recommendations. It is hoped that this effort helps the readers in general and people at the helm of affair in particular to understand the subject and get a fair idea about the available options to address the issue of sense of political deprivation of the people of GB, ensuring its better future integration with Pakistan.