65
1 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014 BALANCING GROWTH & RETURNS NEW YORK INVESTOR DAY 5 SEPTEMBER 2014 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC

Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Shell’s management hosted an investor day in New York on September 5, 2014, including presentations by Ben Van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer of, Simon Henry, Chief Financial Officer of, Marvin Odum, Upstream Americas Director of, and John Abbott, Downstream Director of Royal Dutch Shell plc.

Citation preview

Page 1: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

1 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

BALANCING GROWTH & RETURNS NEW YORK INVESTOR DAY

5 SEPTEMBER 2014 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC

Page 2: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

2 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

DEFINITIONS & CAUTIONARY NOTE

Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves.

Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions.

Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing impact.

Resources plays: our use of the term ‘resources plays’ refers to tight, shale and coal bed methane oil and gas acreage.

The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies in which Royal Dutch Shell either directly or indirectly has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a controlling influence. The companies in which Shell has significant influence but not control are referred to as “associated companies” or “associates” and companies in which Shell has joint control are referred to as “jointly controlled entities”. In this presentation, associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as “equity-accounted investments”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.

This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended 31 December, 2013 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, 5 September, 2014. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in this presentation in the future, or that they will be made at all.

We use certain terms in this presentation, such as discovery potential, that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain this form from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.

Page 3: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

3 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

BEN VAN BEURDEN CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC

Page 4: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

4 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

AGENDA

Ben van Beurden Chief Executive Officer

Marvin Odum Upstream Americas Director

John Abbott Downstream Director

Simon Henry Chief Financial Officer

Question & answer session

Panel break-outs

Downstream

Upstream Americas: deep-water

Upstream Americas: resources plays

Page 5: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

5 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

EXECUTING A CONSISTENT, LONG-TERM STRATEGY

source: Shell estimates

Unrelenting focus on HSSE

Technology, integration and scale

Disciplined capital investment by strategic theme

Growth in cash flow through-cycle

Competitive shareholder returns

Energy demand outlook million boe per day

Oil Gas Biomass Wind

Coal Nuclear Other renewables Solar

Shell activities

Page 6: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

6 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

FOCUS ON SAFETY UPDATE

Injuries – TRCF/million working hours

Goal Zero on safety Volume in thousand tonnes

Spills - operational Number of incidents

Energy intensity – refineries Energy Intensity Index (EEITM)

Process safety trend

million working hours

Working hours (RHS) TRCF

HSSE priority

Performance + transparency Tier 1 incidents Tier 2 incidents

4Q rolling 4Q rolling

Page 7: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

7 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

2014 PRIORITIES

Returns and cash flow

Competitive returns for shareholders

Take hard choices on new options

Increase asset sales

Reduce pace of growth investment

Major deep-water start-ups in 2014

Integrate 2013 acquisitions

Deliver new projects

Enhance our capital efficiency

Improve our financial performance

Page 8: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

8 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

IMPROVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE H1 2014 OUTCOME

CCS earnings + ROACE excluding identified items

Earnings + ROACE $ billion

Cash flow $ billion

Dividend + buy-back $ billion

Upstream

Downstream

Corporate/Other

Dividend declared Buy-back

CFFO CFFI

Balancing returns + growth

Competitive shareholder returns Expecting > $30 billion distributions to shareholders

2014-15

ROACE (RHS) Free cash flow (RHS)

$ billion

Page 9: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

9 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

DRIVING PERFORMANCE IN SHELL

Policy from 1.1.2015

New shareholding requirements Performance units

Drive bottom line focus

Credible, competitive and affordable plans

Drives decisions on spending + divestment

Individual performance management

Stronger accountability for outcomes

New shareholding requirements for senior executives

7 x base pay CEO

4 x base pay CFO

Top 200 executives below Executive Committee: 1.5 x base pay

Senior Executives

Page 10: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

10 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES

RESOURCES PLAYS

DEEP-WATER INTEGRATED GAS

UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM

INVESTMENT PRIORITIES + STRATEGIC INTENT

1 Iraq, Nigeria onshore (SPDC), Kazakhstan, heavy oil, Arctic

Engines

Free cash flow businesses

Maintain competitiveness

Asset integrity + selective growth

Growth Priority

Global leadership established

High-grading our rich opportunity set

Longer Term

Major potential; managing non-technical risks

Slower pace + capital allocation

Credible, competitive, affordable Investment choices driven on a global thematic basis

1

Page 11: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

11 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

IMPROVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE PORTFOLIO RESTRUCTURING

Gas supply for LNG Canada

LRS exploration: Permian + W.Canada

Appalachia Utica gas exploration

Asset sales + cost focus

Downstream 10-12% ROACE + $10 billion p.a. CFFO potential

MLP proposal

Asset sales + cost focus

North America resources plays Oil Products

Page 12: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

12 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

ENHANCE CAPITAL EFFICIENCY

Take hard choices on new options

More selectivity: FIDs >$500 million require CEO approval at FEED

Maturing new projects: LNG, deep-water

Increase asset sales

~$10 billion completed year-to-date

US midstream MLP proposal

Reduce pace of growth investment

2014 organic spending ~$35 billion

Scrip cancellation reflects improving FCF

completed

2014+ Asset sales / license expiry

Wheatstone LNG

BC-10 dilution

North America non-core LRS

Italy Downstream

ADCO license expiry

Woodside market sell down

Australia / Denmark / Norway Downstream

Nigeria onshore

Mature UKCS + GOM assets

Pinedale + Haynesville dry gas

others

340,000 boed upstream

180,000 b/d refining

300,000 b/d marketing

Page 13: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

13 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

Gumusut-Kakap

Perdido North America: tight gas Gbaran-Ubie Gjoa AOSP-1

West Qurna Schoonebeek North America: tight gas Qatargas 4 LNG Pearl GTL Qarn Alam

Harweel Caesar Tonga ph1 Gumusut-Kakap (early

production) Pluto LNG North America: tight gas Eagle Ford

Majnoon FCP BC-10 ph2 Basrah gas company North Rankin Amal steam AOSP debottlenecking others

Repsol LNG acquisition Mars B Petai Bonga North West Cardamom Gumusut-Kakap others

DELIVER NEW PROJECTS UPSTREAM TRACK RECORD 2010-14

Mars-B

Repsol LNG

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Key project start-ups:

Consistent delivery of new projects

Last 12 months CFFO from 2010+ start-ups $11 billion

Growth from key start-ups

kboe per day $ billion

Production Cash flow from operations (RHS)

completed

Page 14: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

14 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

CONVENTIONAL EXPLORATION PORTFOLIO + THEMES

Prospect size: potential

Conventional exploration spend 2014 ~ $ 4 billion

Heartland

Near field exploration Arctic/Frontier

Balancing exploration risk

Prospect size

(million boe)

Time to development

(years)

15+

10+

3+

<3 5-50

50-250

>250

>500 Arctic

Frontier Under explored basins

Heartlands New plays in Shell producing basins

Near field High value

Page 15: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

15 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

EXPLORATION SUCCESS ADDING RESOURCES IN HEARTLANDS

Gulf of Mexico Malaysia cumulative resources added in million boe cumulative resources added in million boe

Tukau Timur West

NFE Success Limbayong-2

Tukau Timur Deep

NFE success Rosmari

Marjoram Pegaga Appraisal

Appomattox Vito

Cardamom South Deimos

Vicksburg Vito Appraisal

Appomattox appraisal

Rydberg

20 km

Shell leasehold discovery drilling

Appomattox Vicksburg

Gettysburg

Rydberg

Planned Appomattox

host

Shell licence 2011 Shell licence 2014 discovery

Limbayong-2

Rosmari

Gorek Teja

Pegaga Sintok Sirih

50 km

Stones West Boreas

Appomattox area Deep-water Malaysia

Marjoram

Kaikias

Bakong Larak

Legundi

Page 16: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

16 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

SHELL IN NORTH AMERICA

Production and refining capacity as at end 2013

Refinery/ chemical plant

Upstream positions

Midstream positions/capacity

Refinery with LTO capability

Gas monetization options

LNG Canada Carmon Creek

LRS

AOSP

Scotford

Western Canada gas

Proposed Energy East Pipeline

Sarnia Appalachia

Gas to chemicals

Elba LNG

Ho-Ho

Motiva refineries Deer Park

Permian

Permian Express

Martinez

Puget Sound

Proposed midstream positions/capacity

Mobile

Leading industry positions

Growth potential Upstream + Downstream

Integration + opportunities

Production Refining capacity

Rest of the world

North America

Gulf of Mexico

AERA heavy oil

Page 17: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

17 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

MARVIN ODUM UPSTREAM AMERICAS DIRECTOR

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC

Page 18: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

18 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

UPSTREAM AMERICAS

Deep-water Industry leadership

Heavy oil Mining and in-situ

Resources plays Portfolio repositioning

Integrated Gas Monetizing gas

Arctic Long-term potential

Profitable + competitive today Potential

Deliver our deep-water and heavy oil growth projects

Establish resources plays and integrated gas profitability

Drive sharper cost focus and capital efficiency across our operations

Mars B start-up Appomattox FEED Cardamom commissioning

Carmon Creek under construction

On-going restructuring LNG Canada FEED Evaluating options

Page 19: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

19 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

UPSTREAM AMERICAS PORTFOLIO

Production million boe per day

Deep-water Resources plays Heavy oil

Capital investment $ billion

Deep-water Resources plays Heavy oil Pre-FID/other

+5%

-20%

Resources plays Deep-water

Gas monetization options Heavy oil

Western Canada dry gas + LRS

Appalachia dry gas

AOSP + in-situ

Gulf of Mexico

Brazil

LNG Canada

Gas-to-chemicals

Elba LNG

Integration potential

Completed divestments

AERA heavy oil

Permian LRS Argentina

Eastern Canada

Colombia

Resources

Deep-water Resources plays

Heavy oil

10.9 billion boe

Resources 1/1/2014 updated for 2014 announced divestments and acquisitions

Major undeveloped resources

Completed divestments

Page 20: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

20 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

IMPROVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: UPSTREAM AMERICAS - FINANCIAL DRIVERS

Earnings and CFFO excluding identified items

Balance sheet Q214 $ billion

Earnings 2013 H1 – 2014 H1

$ billion

On stream Under construction

Resources plays Deep-water

Non productive leases Heavy oil/Arctic

LRS

$3.2 billion clean DD+A 2014 H1 4Q rolling

GAS

Strong recovery in results 2014 H1

~$6 billion CFFO 12 months rolling

Continued drive to improve profitability

2014 H1 2013 H1

- 0.3 0.1

0.5

0.1

0.2

0.5

- 0.1

0.1

1.3

Long term growth

0.2

Page 21: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

21 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

NORTH AMERICA RESOURCES PLAYS RESTRUCTURING SHELL PORTFOLIO

Portfolio

North Americas capital investment

$ billion

Resilience

Attr

activ

enes

s

Exit: Eagle Ford Mississippi Lime Rockies LRS Deep Basin (North) Foothills (Burnt Timber) Appalachia (Slippery Rock) Pinedale Haynesville

Hold or Divest

Maintain/Grow: Western Canada gas + integration plays Appalachia Western Canada LRS Permian LRS

completed

LRS plays

Dry gas Acquisitions LRS Divestments

-20%

Resources + potential = discovered + prospective resources as at 1/1/2014 updated for 2014 announced divestments and acquisitions

~10 billion boe resources + potential

Dry gas:

Canada LNG supply

Appalachia appraisal

Liquids rich: Permian + W. Canada appraisal

Profitability focus

-50%

Page 22: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

22 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

NORTH AMERICA RESOURCES PLAYS PROGRESS ON COSTS

Portfolio: learning curve

Top quartile in 60% of wells

~$155 million year over year reduction

Right-sizing the organization

~$130 million in savings from overhead reductions

~$40 million year over year reduction in direct lease and field costs

Drilling time reduction

-40%

program years

% improvement Pinedale

Groundbirch

Appalachia

Eagle Ford

Permian

Kaybob

Haynesville

Staff reduction Unit operating expense $/mcfe

-10%

2014 >$500 million in capital and operating cost reductions

Page 23: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

23 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

NORTH AMERICA RESOURCES PLAYS APPRAISING NEW POTENTIAL

New Utica sweetspot in Tioga County

11-26 mmscf/day IP rates

~275k net acres + ~1500 well locations

Additional ~155k net acres once Pinedale swap complete

Multiple stacked pays

~70% liquids

Wolfcamp exploration potential

~300k net acres + ~5700 well locations

50/50 JV with Anadarko

Premier position in Duvernay play

Oil + gas condensate window

~365k net acres + ~2400 well locations

Integration potential with heavy oil

Appalachia Utica Permian Western Canada

18km

0 25km

54km

Pembina area

Fox Creek

Rocky Mountain House

Pecos

Tioga

Tioga County

18km

Loving Co

Winkler Co

Ward Co

Kaybob area

Page 24: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

24 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

NORTH AMERICA LNG PROGRESSING TO FID

2 x ~6 mtpa first phase

25-year export license for 24 mtpa in place

Joint venture agreement signed

FEED contract awarded

Joint venture: Shell (50%), Kogas, Mitsubishi, PetroChina

Two phased liquefaction project with up to 2.5 mtpa capacity

Joint venture 49% Shell + 51% Kinder Morgan

Shell will be single LNG off-taker (100%)

FERC application filed in March 2014

FEED nearing completion

LNG Canada Elba LNG

Page 25: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

25 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

DEEP-WATER GULF OF MEXICO PROJECT FLOW

Execute (under construction) On stream

Select/Define

Auger

Mars

Ursa

Nakika

Brutus

Vito ~100 kboe/d potential >300 million boe resources Shell 51.33% (operator)

Appomattox >150 kboe/d potential >600 million boe resources Shell ~80% (operator)

Caesar Tonga

Cardamom Deep

Mars B

100 km

Cardamom Deep ~50 kboe/d Shell 100% (operator) Tie back to Auger 2014 start-up

Growth outlook1:

~230 kboe/d on stream in Q2 2014 + Mars B continued ramp-up 2014

50 kboe/d to start-up in 2H 2014 and 50 kboe/d under construction

>170 kboe/d new options

FID Discovery

Cardamom

Stones

Appomattox/Vicksburg

Vito

Rydberg

Start-up

1 Shell share

Rydberg ~100mmboe discovery Shell ~57% (operator)

2014 exploration success

Ram Powell

Stones FPSO

Kaikias Oil discovery; further

appraisal required Shell 100% (operator)

Perdido Stones ~50 kboe/d FPSO >250 million boe resources Shell 100% (operator) FPSO under construction 2016 start-up

Page 26: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

26 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

DEEP-WATER GULF OF MEXICO DRIVING PROFITABLE GROWTH

Unit cost range source: Rystad

Unit operating cost

$/bbl

Unit cost range Shell unit cost

Drilling moratorium

Mars B start-up

Sustained exploration delivery

Emerging from decline post-Macondo

2014 project start-ups drive new growth

Mars B, Cardamom, Nakika Phase 3

Maintaining cost leadership

Production

thousand boe/d

Cumulative resources added

million boe

Appomattox Vito

Cardamom South Deimos

Vicksburg Vito Appraisal

Appomattox appraisal

Rydberg Stones

West Boreas

Cardamom start-up

Perdido start-up

Kaikias

Page 27: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

27 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

DEEP-WATER GULF OF MEXICO MARS B DEVELOPMENT

Mars B production ramp-up progress ‘000 boe/d

First oil February 2014

6 months ahead of schedule

Averaged ~38 kboe/d Q2 14

Capacity > 100 kboe/d

Shell 72% (operator)

Olympus on-site – February 2014

Olympus platform FID September 2010 First Oil February 2014

competitors FID 2010

Olympus in Kiewit shipyard Ingleside, Texas – Summer 2013

3rd well to start in Q4

Page 28: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

28 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

DEEP-WATER BRAZIL PROJECT DELIVERY AND NEW POTENTIAL

Phase 2 water injection complete

Injection above target plan

Phase 3 wells completed

Q2/14 ~60 kboe/d

Shell 50% (operator)

Redevelopment complete

First oil February 2014

Production up 20% from Q1 due to well management efforts

Q2/14 ~26 kboe/d

Shell 80% (operator)

First well spudded in August 2014

Joint project team established

Extended well test planned to begin December 2016

Shell 20%

BC-10

Bijupira Salema

Libra

Update picture

Page 29: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

29 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

UPSTREAM AMERICAS

Deep-water Industry leadership

Heavy oil Mining and in-situ

Resources plays Portfolio repositioning

Integrated Gas Monetizing gas

Arctic Long-term potential

Profitable + competitive today Potential

Deliver our deep-water and heavy oil growth projects

Establish resources plays and integrated gas profitability

Drive sharper cost focus and capital efficiency across our operations

Mars B start-up Appomattox FEED Cardamom commissioning

Carmon Creek under construction

On-going restructuring LNG Canada FEED Evaluating options

Page 30: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

30 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

JOHN ABBOTT DOWNSTREAM DIRECTOR

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC

Page 31: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

31 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

DOWNSTREAM STRATEGY

Developing and sustaining competitive advantage through…

Advantaged feedstock +

supply

Improving our footprint

Differentiated Products +

Customer Offer

Leveraging the Brand

Priority to improve our financial performance

Renewed focus on upgrading our portfolio

Returns + free cash flow improvement

Page 32: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

32 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

DOWNSTREAM OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT

Port Arthur expansion included from 2013

Focus on HSSE continues

Injuries – TRCF/million working hours

Operating performance % unplanned downtime

million working hours

Refining

Working hours TRCF

Chemicals

Positive overall safety trends

Controlling unplanned downtime

Pernis refinery, The Netherlands

4Q rolling

Page 33: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

33 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

DOWNSTREAM COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Earnings excluding identified items; peer group: XOM, LBI, DOW, BP, RDS

Cash flow performance Downstream ROACE $ billion

Chemicals ROACE %

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Q2 rolling Shell Chemicals Peer group range

Earnings on local GAAP basis adjusted for inventory valuation differences and excluding identified items; Peer group: Chevron, Total, BP, XOM, RDS

Peer group range Shell Downstream

CFFO excl. WC movements Working capital movements

Cash flow from investments

Free cash flow (RHS)

Priority to improve financial performance

Targeting:

10 - 12% ROACE

>$10 billion p.a. CFFO

$ billion

2013 14Q2 4Q rolling

2012 2011 2010

$ billion

Page 34: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

34 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

UPGRADING OUR PORTFOLIO

Downstream asset sales $ billion

Portfolio change

2014 YTD is end August 2014

Announced divestments 2014 ytd: 180,000 b/d refining 300,000 b/d marketing

Asset sales proceeds

Resilience

Attr

activ

enes

s

Selective Growth: Chemicals China LNG for transport Premium fuels + lubes Refinery crude flexibility others

Fix: Motiva Singapore fuels Pernis + Rheinland others

Exit: Italy Norway Australia Denmark others

Optimise footprint

Integrated value capture

Selective investment in growth markets

Capital discipline and project delivery completed

Page 35: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

35 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

IMPROVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: NORTH AMERICA DOWNSTREAM

1 Shell share crude distillation capacity

Share of Shell portfolio

~35% of Shell worldwide refining capacity

No. 1 North America fuels retail + lubes market share

Drive to improve financial performance Shell Chemical facility

Scotford

Sarnia

Martinez

Puget Sound

1.2 million b/d refinery capacity

15,400 retail stations

6,000 kilometers pipelines

Refinery 50,000 boed capacity1

Global refining capacity 3.2 million boed total

Global branded retail stations 43,000 stations total

Motiva

North America

Rest of world

Rest of world

North America

Motiva refineries1

Deer Park

Mobile

Geismar

Norco

Rest of North America

Page 36: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

36 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

MLP PROPOSAL – SHELL MIDSTREAM ASSETS

SEC S-1 filing 18th June, 2014

Targeting $750 million initial fund raising

Drop-down potential

Colonial system

Initial MLP drop-down %: Zydeco (Ho-Ho) 43% Mars 28.6% Bengal 49% Colonial 1.612%

Page 37: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

37 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

Mobile refinery, Alabama

ACCESSING ADVANTAGED FEEDSTOCK NORTH AMERICA LIGHT TIGHT OIL + CANADIAN HEAVY

North America - Advantaged crude processing Crude runs kbbl/day

Moved from 50% advantaged crude processing in 2011 to ~90% 2014 ytd

Achieved with minor capex and logistics changes

Scotford, Edmonton Canada

High margin refinery

Processes 100% advantaged feedstock

Integrated upstream + downstream

Integration value: $4/bbl upstream + $3/bbl chemicals

New debottlenecking potential

Incremental additional capex

Logistics and blending improvements

Pipeline reversal (Ho-Ho) completed

Further options continuing to develop

% of equity capacity

% of equity capacity (RHS) Advantaged N.A. crude

Page 38: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

38 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

MOTIVA JOINT VENTURE

Supply and distribution

50-50 JV Shell-Saudi Aramco

Manufacturing: ~1.1 million b/d refining + lubes

Fuels marketing: 35 terminals, ~8,300 retail sites

Supply, trading, logistics – recent advantaged crude logistics success

Port Arthur refinery

Largest refinery in US

Port Arthur refinery expanded to 600,000 b/d

Ramp up in 2013

EXPORTS

ADVANTAGED CRUDE LOGISTICS CANADIAN HEAVY + BAKKEN SHALE

Page 39: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

39 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

MOTIVA JV – IMPROVEMENT PLAN

Earnings and cash flow IFRS basis

Earnings $ billion

Cash flow $ billion

Aligned with partner Saudi Aramco on improvement plan, covering:

Refocused delivery strategy

Reliability, crude advantage, unit yields, E2E optimization

Management structure + leadership team changes effective 2014

CFFO excl. working capital movements Capital expenditure

Free cash flow

H2’12 H1’13 H2’13 H1’14

$/bbl

Net income before tax USGC Coking Margin (RHS)

H2’12 H1’13 H2’13 H1’14

2012 2013 2014

Page 40: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

40 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

NORTH AMERICA FUELS MARKETING + LUBRICANTS

Fuels volumes and penetration on 100% venture basis; 2014H1 is 12 months rolling

North American sales leader in fuels & lubricants

Strategy focused on premium brands & services, through quality and innovation

Recent launch of PurePlus Technology leveraging our upstream GTL base oils

Retail network well positioned in major demand centres and around our refinery & supply assets

Synthetic Lubricants volume growth – North America

Indexed Premium volume mix (2011 = 100)

Premium fuels penetration (V-Power) - USA

% penetration

Differentiated fuels volume USA Differentiated fuels penetration

Page 41: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

41 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

DOWNSTREAM STRATEGY

Developing and sustaining competitive advantage through…

Advantaged feedstock +

supply

Improving our footprint

Differentiated Products +

Customer Offer

Leveraging the Brand

Priority to improve our financial performance

Renewed focus on upgrading our portfolio

Returns + free cash flow improvement

Page 42: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

42 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

SIMON HENRY CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC

Page 43: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

43 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK AND PRIORITIES

CASH PERFORMANCE

INVESTMENT

BALANCE SHEET

CFFO

PAY OUT

Cash dividend Buy-back

Gearing

CFFI

$ billion

%

$ billion

$ billion

Priorities for cash

1. Debt service

2. Dividends: growth policy

3. Capital investment: disciplined through cycle growth

4. Return surplus cash: buy-backs

$ billion

Net debt

4Q rolling

4Q rolling

4Q rolling

Page 44: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

44 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

Q214 4Q rolling

Cash generation

Dividend and buy back

UP STREAM

DOWN STREAM

CASH FLOW AND PAY-OUT

CFFO Downstream includes Corporate

$ billion

Dividend track record $ billion

Gearing + balance sheet $ billion

Cash flow from operations Cash flow from investments

Gearing range

Net debt

Dividends declared

Gearing (RHS)

4Q rolling

Maintaining long-term financial framework

> $30 billion distributions (dividends + buy-backs) to shareholders 2014-15

2014-15 buy-back $7-8 billion

Last 3 years

UP STREAM

DOWN STREAM

$ billion

Page 45: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

45 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

INVESTMENT PRIORITIES

* includes Corporate

Organic capital investment 2014 $ billion

Credible, competitive, affordable

Investment choices driven on a global thematic basis

Future opportunities

Resources plays

Deep-water

Integrated gas

Upstream engine

Downstream*

Longer term

Growth priorities

Engines

25% Preparing new options

30% Driving new Upstream growth

45% Maintaining competitive cash generation

Exploration + pre-FID

Key growth projects

Smaller growth projects

Care + maintain

Page 46: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

46 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK – KEY DRIVERS

Organic free cash flow: cash flow from operations less cash used in investing activities adjusted for major acquisitions and divestments Dividend declared: shares outstanding at end of period x dividend/share ($)

A+D supports portfolio growth $ billion

Organic free cash flow drives dividend $ billion (cash basis)

Divestments

Acquisitions

Cumulative cash surplus (deficit) of divestments over acquisitions

Organic free cash flow

Dividend declared

Cumulative organic FCF surplus (deficit) over dividend declared

Page 47: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

47 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK – TRACK RECORD

Free cash flow: cash flow from operations less cash used in investing activities

Balancing financial framework over time $ billion

Free cash flow

Cash dividend and buybacks

Cumulative surplus (deficit) of free cash flow over dividend and buybacks

Page 48: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

48 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

BALANCING GROWTH + RETURNS

ROACE CCS earnings excluding identified items * 2015/16 outlook as per March 2014 Management day

CFFO in billion $

Strong + diverse portfolio

Priority to restructure NA resources plays + Oil Products

ROACE (%)

Downstream engine Upstream engine

Integrated gas Deep-water

Resources plays Future opportunities

Bubble size represents Q214 capital employed

Q214 4Q rolling ROACE

2014 Q2 4Q rolling

2015/16 potential*

Page 49: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

49 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE: BALANCING GROWTH AND RETURNS 4Q ROLLING

Free cash flow: cash flow from operations less cash used in investing activities; ROACE underlying: European companies: CCS basis excluding identified items. US companies: reported earnings excluding special non-operating items.

Cash flow from operations $ billion

Free cash flow $ billion

ROACE – underlying %

Shell Peer group

Driving competitive performance

Page 50: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

50 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

BEN VAN BEURDEN CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC

Page 51: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

51 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

2014 PRIORITIES

Returns and cash flow

Competitive returns for shareholders

Take hard choices on new options

Increase asset sales

Reduce pace of growth investment

Major deep-water start-ups in 2014

Integrate 2013 acquisitions

Deliver new projects

Enhance our capital efficiency

Improve our financial performance

Page 52: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

52 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

QUESTIONS & ANSWERS NEW YORK INVESTOR DAY

Page 53: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

53 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

Frontier exploration program since 2010

Exit from non-material acreage following early well results ($1 billion 2013-14)

Positive results in Western Canada (Duvernay + Wet Montney) and Permian (Wolfcamp)

~60% of wells >1000 boe/d potential

Appraisal continues

Assessing development options

NORTH AMERICA LIQUIDS RICH SHALES EXPLORATION FOCUSSING ON WESTERN CANADA + PERMIAN BASIN

LRS production

Drilling focus in sweet spots

thousand boe/day Cumulative # of exploration wells >1000 boe/d potential

Groundbirch Kaybob

Pembina

Permian

Acreage

Groundbirch drilling

Liquids Associated gas Permian W. Canada Completed divestments Completed divestments

H1 W. Canada Permian

Page 54: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

54 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

Addressing underperforming assets

Acquisition cost overhang

Scale & cost reduction

Exit non-material acreage ($2.5 billion ‘13-’14)

Growth opportunity

Canada LNG integration options

New exploration success in Appalachia Utica

NORTH AMERICA ONSHORE DRY GAS FOCUSSING ON WESTERN CANADA + APPALACHIA

Gas production

Rig count

Pinedale Appalachia

Gas

Haynesville

Announced divestments

Groundbirch Deep Basin

Foothills

LNG Canada

Partial divestment

thousand boe/day # of rigs

Gas Associated liquids Haynesville Appalachia Completed divestments

W. Canada

H1 H1 H1

Acreage

Completed divestments Pinedale

Page 55: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

55 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

APPALACHIA UTICA LARGE DRY GAS OPPORTUNITY

Tioga

SHELL UTICA FOCUS AREA

Gee Neal

430 k acres (Shell Net)

Including new acreage from Ultra deal

~430,000 net acres in Tioga County – focus area 250-500’ pay thickness >1500 potential wells

Production update: Gee peak rate: ~11 mmscf/d Discovery well in the Utica

play in N.E. Pennsylvania 3,100’ lateral with 13 frac

stages Neal peak rate: ~26 mmscf/d Follow up to Gee well 4,200’ lateral with 16 frac

stages Expect 4-8 wells flowing by year end

Page 56: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

56 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

PERMIAN LIQUIDS GROWTH BASIN

Low cost, early Wolfcamp entry Production growth and profitability Thousand boe per day

Loving Co

Ward Co

Winkler Co

Jeff Davis Co

TEXAS

NEW MEXICO Volatile Oil Gas Condensate

Horizontal Wolfcamp play outline

Shell acreage

Avalon appraisal and development

Wolfcamp prospective throughout leasehold

~300,000 net acres – focus area >3500’ stacked pay thickness with large resource potential in Wolfcamp >5700 potential wells – mostly Wolfcamp 70% liquids

Oil/ Liquids Associated gas

Page 57: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

57 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

WESTERN CANADA KAYBOB + PEMBINA INDUSTRY LEADING POSITION IN DUVERNAY PLAY

Duvernay play thermal maturity map

Pembina

Kaybob

~ 365,000 net acres in 2 core areas 100’ thick TOC-rich shale ~ 2400 potential wells ~ 60 wells online by year end (1/3 of all wells in play) >1000 boe/d IP for most wells on-line to date

Drilling focus in sweet spots

Cumulative # of exploration wells >1000 boe/d potential

34 wells online through Q2 2014

Page 58: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

58 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

~155,000 net acres in 5 blocks ~300-600’ thick shale Early E&A stage 6 wells drilled

ARGENTINA VACA MUERTA LIQUIDS RICH POTENTIAL

Vaca Muerta Águila Mora

Karnes Trough Eagle Ford

Haynesville

Utica Ohio

Vaca Muerta Sierras Blancas

~200 m

Vaca Muerta thermal maturity map Comparative shale thickness section

La Escalonada

Aguila Mora

Rincon de la Ceniza

Cruz de Lorena

Sierras Blancas

Non-operated

Shell operated

Page 59: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

59 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

DEEP-WATER GULF OF MEXICO APPOMATTOX HUB

Leadership in Norphlet play

Hub strategy delivering value

>700 million boe discovered in 3 fields

Presently drilling at Gettysburg

>150 kboe/d peak production potential

Semi-submersible development concept

Moved into FEED in February 2014

Shell 80% (operator)

Includes Vicksburg tie-back (75% Shell)

Norphlet play Development concept

Appomattox 80% Shell

20% Nexen

Vicksburg 75% Shell

25% Nexen

Planned Appomattox

Host

Rydberg 57.2% Shell

28.5% Ecopetrol 14.3% Nexen

Shell Leasehold

Discovery

Prospect/Lead

Infrastructure

3 mi

Gettysburg 80% Shell

20% Nexen

Page 60: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

60 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

LNG PRICING CONSIDERATIONS

Regional gas prices $/mmbtu

LNG price dynamics – US exports $/mmbtu

HH outlook

Liquefaction + transport costs

Landed cost

Tokyo Bay UK

2010-14

2010-14

Page 61: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

61 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

LNG SUPPLY AND DEMAND DYNAMICS

* Risked view of all LNG supply projects

LNG demand million tonnes per annum

LNG supply* million tonnes per annum

N.A. LNG export development

million tonnes per annum

Japan/Korea/Taiwan Europe

India

SE Asia China

Other

Asia Qatar

Australia

Africa

Middle East

S. & Latin America North America

Others

Total NA applications Sanctioned projects

million boe/d million boe/d

Page 62: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

62 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

SHELL ARCTIC & NEAR ARCTIC

CANADA

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

NORWAY

GREENLAND

UNITED STATES

SALYM

KASHAGAN

SAKHALIN

NORTH POLE

ORMEN LANGE

BAFFIN BAY

NIGLINTGAK

CHUKCHI

BEAUFORT

KANUMAS

NORWAY BARENTS

Alaska, Chukchi

Greenland, Baffin Bay

Norway, Ormen Lange

Russia, Sakhalin

Russia, Salym

Kazakhstan, Kashagan

Page 63: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

63 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

DOWNSTREAM PORTFOLIO SEGMENTATION + PERFORMANCE

Downstream businesses 2013 CFFO ($ billion)

2013 ROACE (%)

Segmentation into performance units

Action plans to improve returns + CFFO or exit

Focus on cost efficiency

Targeted investment

Bubble size = capital employed

-5% 10%

-20% >40% Chemicals

Merchant refining

Integrated refining

+ marketing value chain

Fuels marketing

Biofuels

Lubricants

ROACE based on CCS earnings excluding identified earnings

Page 64: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

64 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

IMPROVING PERFORMANCE OF KEY ASSETS

Over-supplied fuels market

Improving efficiency; advantaged liquids feedstock; energy costs

Cogeneration + cracker debottlenecking projects 2015

High margin refinery

Integrated upstream + downstream

Integration value: $4/bbl upstream + $3/bbl chemicals

New debottlenecking potential

Bukom – performance turnaround Scotford – building on sustained performance Refinery unplanned downtime in %

Unplanned downtime

Page 65: Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014

65 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 5 September, 2014

BALANCING GROWTH & RETURNS NEW YORK INVESTOR DAY

5 SEPTEMBER 2014 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC