View
140
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
The Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (ISRI) Chief Economist delivered this presentation at the Fall 2013 board meeting examining the paper market through macroeconomic indicators and global market stats, and provides an outlook for the future.
Citation preview
Economic and Paper Market Trends
Paper Division Executive Committee ISRI 2013 Fall Committee and Board Meetings
San Francisco, CAOctober 22, 2013
www.ISRI.org
Macro Indicators:Gross Domestic Product
Fastest Growing Sectors in Q2 2013:Gross Private Domestic Investment (+9.2%)Exports (+8%)
Sharpest Contraction:Nondefense Government Spending (-3.1%)
Macro Indicators: Unemployment
Macro Indicators: Inflation
Prices: Recovered Paper Index
Global RP Supply Steady through 2011
Source: Bureau of International Recycling
But US RP Export Sales Dip in 2012...
Jan-Jul 2013 Exports by Volume (short tons)
Grade 2012 YTD 2013 YTD % CHG
CORRUGATED 6,038,457 5,689,233 -6%
HIGH GRADE DE-INKING 433,830 413,984 -5%
PULP SUBSTITUTES 1,022,729 869,524 -15%
NEWSPRINT 1,424,040 1,378,797 -3%
MIXED PAPER 2,635,544 2,598,294 -1%
OTHER 1,335,192 1,335,144 0%
TOTAL 12,889,791 12,284,976 -5%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau/U.S. International Trade Commission
China Remains the Key Overseas Market
CHINESE RECOVERED PAPER IMPORTS (TONNES)
OCC ONP Mixed paper Total RCP
August 2013 1,434,606 600,479 392,110 2,495,592
July 2013 1,245,345 597,794 466,295 2,384,435
% change 15.2% 0.4% -15.9% 4.7%
August 2012 1,564,052 526,988 482,389 2,645,702
% change -8.3% 13.9% -18.7% -5.7%
Year-to-date 2013 11,034,133 4,542,888 3,609,667 19,803,822
Year-to-date 2012 11,348,482 4,592,875 3,526,295 20,018,876
% change -2.8% -1.1% 2.4% -1.1%
Source: RISI/China Customs.
Outlook
Uncertainty remains the recurring theme with unsettled questions on:
• Domestic mill inventories
• U.S. Budget, debt ceiling, regulatory challenges
• Timing of Fed tapering and impact on Dollar
• Transportation and Energy Costs
• Last but not least, China imports