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Why I'm long Diamond Foods (uploaded 2/17/2012)
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D I S C U S S I O N M A T E R I A L S
Diamond Foods (DMND):
Andrew Boone
F A L L 2 0 1 1
1
Diamond Foods recent events
Six month price history
D I A
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F O
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Recent Events
Sept 2008 - Pop Secret acquisition closes
Deal valued at $190mm
March 2010 - Kettle Foods acquisition closes
Deal valued at $615mm
April 2011 – Pringles acquisition announced
Deal valued at $1.5bn
Nov 2011 – Diamond announces a delayed
closing date for Pringles acquisition over
accounting irregularities
Nov 2011 - Joseph Silveira, a Diamond board
member, commits suicide
Dec 2011 – SEC launches probe into Diamond’s
accounting
Feb 2012 – Audit committee states filings will
be restated
Source: Reuters
F A L L 2 0 1 1
2
What is Diamond without the acquisition?
D I A
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Diamond Brands Operating segments
Segments for Diamond foods are :
Snack
Culinary & Retail In-Shell
International Non-Retail
Other
All of the growth is in in the Snack
segment
Revenue In Millions 2009 2010 2011
Snack 188.9 321.4 553.2
Growth 70.1% 72.1%
Culinary & Retail
In-Shell 276.2 249.0 262.9
Growth -9.8% 5.6%
International Non-
Retail 68.9 69.2 119.0
Growth 0.4% 72.0%
Other 36.9 40.6 30.8
Growth 10.0% -24.1%
Total 570.9 680.2 965.9
Growth 19.1% 42.0% Source: Company filings
F A L L 2 0 1 1
3
Without viable financials, how does one value Diamond?
D I A
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Pop Secret was acquired for $190mm –more valuable now as Pop Secret has grown market share to 26.1% (Total U.S. Nielsen FDMX 52 Weeks Ending 8/6/11)
Kettle Chips was acquired for $625mm in cash – Kettle Chips allowed DMND to double shelf space in aisle. I saw Kettle Chips in trip to SE Asia in Dec. – Global distribution benefits full DMND Product suite
Current enterprise value of $1,065mm implies a value of $250mm for the core “nut” business. This is the lower range of market capitalization prior to Pop Secret acquisition 3+ years ago! (See next page)
Source: Factset accessed 2/15/12
F A L L 2 0 1 1
4 Diamond Foods Market Cap from 2006 to Pop Secret Acquisition, Sept. 2008, is above minimum SOTP value of $250
D I A
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$200mm
$250mm
$300mm
$350mm
$400mm
$450mm
$500mm
Source: Yahoo Finance
F A L L 2 0 1 1
5 Other considerations: Incredibly high short interest that will have to unwind
D I A
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Short Interest and closing price from 2/15/2011 to 2/15/2012
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
Short Interest Closing Price
Source: Factset
F A L L 2 0 1 1
6 Short-term liquidity issues are a concern but Diamond has ~$120mm remaining in its revolver to be tapped
D I A
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Source: Company filings
In August 2011, Diamond increased their revolver from $235mm to $285mm (LIBOR + 2.25%
to 3.50% depending on leverage ratio) – This provides a cash cushion
Long-Term Debt Includes:
$161.0mm Revolver ($285.0mm available)
$350.0mm Term Loan Facility – requires a $10.0mm quarterly principal payment
$20.4mmm Guaranteed Loan (Due 2020)
In Thousands 31-Jul-11 31-Jul-10 31-Jul-09 31-Jul-08
Cash 3,112 5,642 24,802 74,279
Working Capital 90,279 72,168 51,422 121,516
Current Long-Term Debt 41,700 40,000 15,000 0
Long Term Obligations 490,001 516,100 100,085 20,204
Total 531,701 556,100 115,085 20,204
Secured Credit Facility 161,000
Term Loan Facility 350,000
Guaranteed Loan 20,400
Total 531,400
Historical balance sheet items (most recent financial statements from July 31, 2011)
Details of long-term debt as of July 31, 2011
F A L L 2 0 1 1
7 Short-term liquidity issues are a concern but Diamond has ~$120mm remaining in its revolver to be tapped
D I A
M O
N D
F O
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S
Source: Company filings
In August 2011, Diamond increased their revolver from $235mm to $285mm (LIBOR + 2.25%
to 3.50% depending on leverage ratio) – This provides a cash cushion
Long-Term Debt Includes:
$161.0mm Revolver ($285.0mm available)
$350.0mm Term Loan Facility – requires a $10.0mm quarterly principal payment
$20.4mmm Guaranteed Loan (Due 2020)
In Thousands 31-Jul-11 31-Jul-10 31-Jul-09 31-Jul-08
Cash 3,112 5,642 24,802 74,279
Working Capital 90,279 72,168 51,422 121,516
Current Long-Term Debt 41,700 40,000 15,000 0
Long Term Obligations 490,001 516,100 100,085 20,204
Total 531,701 556,100 115,085 20,204
Secured Credit Facility 161,000
Term Loan Facility 350,000
Guaranteed Loan 20,400
Total 531,400
Historical balance sheet items (most recent financial statements from July 31, 2011)
Details of long-term debt as of July 31, 2011
F A L L 2 0 1 1
8 A price for Diamond is hard to reach without reliable financial statements but the current price offers a good entry point
D I A
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Diamond has ample cash due to their increased revolver to meet
short term liquidity requirements
Diamond has a strong suite of products that were reached at arm
length transaction within the last 5 years that imply a strong
intrinsic value
Diamond’s Pringles deal for $1.5bn was renegotiated with P&G
for $2.7bn
High short interest will provide a floor as traders unwind short
positions
There is no break up fee for the Pringles merger falling apart
Fear creates good long term entry points – play stock volatility to
ensure a good entry point
Summary