Commodity Volatility,

S&P500 New Highs & Aussie

Dollar Forecast

with Ashley Jessen June 22, 2014

Commodities have been the big play this week, and in particular, gold.

Gold has been so volatile, it had its largest rise in nine months last week

off the back of the Fed announcement and Yellen mentioning that rates

are going to be on hold for a little bit longer. That pushed the USD lower

and precious metals higher, and it’s been one of the plays we’ve been

watching for quite some time. In fact, if you�’re looking for some ASX plays,

KINGSROSE MINING (KRM:ASX) and SARACEN MINERAL HOLDINGS

(SAR:ASX) are two that we’d like you to keep an eye on.

Now on the other commodities, there’s been so much happening. Brent

Crude is now above $115 per barrel. We’’ve got iron ore rising back up off

those lows, and copper had six days in a row higher than normal. We’’ve

had quite a little bit of a rally there, the largest rally this year actually.

Moving across over to the S&P500 and indices, S&P500 hit all time highs

yet again on Friday, but some diverging signals we noticed --- only 65 of

the stocks in the top 500 actually hit new highs. We’re seeing a little bit of

a divergence there. The put call ratio is actually the lowest level in 4 years,

and as a contrarian indicator, that’s one that we’’re looking out for. In fact,

we’re not calling a high or a full right now, but certainly a break below

1920, 1900 and 20 points will be something that we’’re really watching out

for. At the moment it’s around 1962, so a 2 percent pull back can get us

back to those levels.

On the AUD/USD front or foreign exchange --- AUD/USD, we did call

above, pop above 0.94. It did pop above that and pulled back. What we’re

noticing is that the range at the bottom is actually getting a little bit tighter.

So we're still a little bit bearish above that strength, over 0.94, but that

range back down at 0.93 is where we're keeping a close eye on. So those

ranges are getting a little bit tighter and we're expecting a fallback to those

levels from current levels there.

Alright, now on to the economic news, there's only a few things this week.

We've got AUS job vacancies later in the week, US new home sales, as

well as US economic growth later on in the week. Keep an eye out on

those.

Now, I do want to mention about Peter Esho's Aussie Dollar Forecast

Webinar on Tuesday. Definitely book in for that one. It always fills fast.

He's going to be talking about where he sees the AUD going from a fundamental view, and we'll also have a look at the technical views there.

Now Invast Insights --- we've got one of the stocks that Peter's keeping a

very close eye on, and that he believes is running hot. He'll be looking at

the Gold price and some ETFs as well. We hope you have a fantastic

week and will talk to you soon.

For more trading insights, visit us at www.invast.com.au