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2013 Results,
2030 Strategic Plan and
2014-2018 Business Plan
Maria das Graças Silva Foster
CEO
Conference Call/Webcast
February 26th, 2014
2 2
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS:
DISCLAIMER
The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about future events within the
meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of
the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are not based on historical facts
and are not assurances of future results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect
the Company’s current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry
conditions, company performance and financial results. Such terms as "anticipate",
"believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with
similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forward-looking statements.
Readers are cautioned that these statements are only projections and may differ
materially from actual future results or events. Readers are referred to the documents
filed by the Company with the SEC, specifically the Company’s most recent Annual
Report on Form 20-F, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results
to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, including, among other
things, risks relating to general economic and business conditions, including crude oil and
other commodity prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates, uncertainties
inherent in making estimates of our oil and gas reserves including recently discovered oil
and gas reserves, international and Brazilian political, economic and social
developments, receipt of governmental approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain
financing.
We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking
statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or for any
other reason. Figures for 2014 on are estimates or targets.
All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by this
cautionary statement, and you should not place reliance on any forward-looking
statement contained in this presentation.
NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources,
that we are not permitted to present in documents filed with the United States
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to
Regulation S-K because such terms do not qualify as proved, probable or
possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S-X.
DISCLAIMER
4th Quarter and
2013 Year End Results
4 4
Main Discoveries in Brazil 2013
RRR Brazil: 131% (above 100% for the 22 years in a row)
Reserves/Production = 20 years
Offshore wells drilled: Post-salt (14) + Pre-salt (17)
R$ 17.3 billion invested in exploration in 2013
Proven Reserves totaled 16.6 Bi boe. RRR* in Brazil above 100% for 22 years in a row. Highlights for new exploratory frontiers - Sergipe-Alagoas and Potiguar.
Espírito Santo
Post-salt
Arjuna
Campos Basin
Post-salt
Mandarim
Santos Basin
Pre-salt
Sul de Tupi / Florim / Sagitário
Iara Extensão 4 / Entorno de Iara
Iguaçu Mirim / Franco Leste
Iara Alto Ângulo / Jupiter Bracuhy
Potiguar
Post-salt
Pitú
Sergipe - Alagoas
Post-salt
Farfan 1 / Muriú 1 / Moita Bonita 1
Highlights in Brazil – 2013
Exploratory Activity
16.6 Billion boe
Proven Reserves 2013
4%International
96%
2013
Brazil Oil + NGL
Natural Gas
2013
85%
15%
59%64%
75%
2011 2012 2013
Pre-salt: 100%
Success Ratio in Brazil
*RRR: Reserves Replacement Ratio
5 5
Oil and NGL production in Brazil reached 1,931 kpbd in 2013, down by 2.5% from 2012.
Natural decline during the last 12 months below expected range of 10-11%.
1,980
-2.5%
2012
1,931
2013
Petrobras Oil and NGL Production in Brazil in 2013: 1,931 kbpd
Main factors that impacted production in 2013:
P-63/Papa-Terra: changes in the subsea layout, postponing 1st oil (Jul/13 to Nov/13).
Cid. de São Paulo/Sapinhoá and Cid. de Paraty/Lula NE: unavailability of the monobuoys (China), as well as difficulties during
installation, delaying the ramp-up of the systems (BSR1 Jul/13 to Feb/14).
P-55/Roncador Module III: delay in system delivery, postponement of 1st oil (Sep/13 to Dec/13).
P-58/Parque das Baleias: delay in system delivery, postponement of 1st oil (Nov/13 to Mar/14).
EWT-Franco: cancelled due to delay in receiving authorization from ANP (FPSO Dynamic Producer).
Limited availability of PLSVs (Pipe-Laying Support Vessels) impacted the pace of interconnection of wells, due to the delayed
decision of contracting abroad (should have been contracted by the end of 2011, but were contracted from Apr/2013).
1.961
Mar-12
1.993
Feb-12
2.098
Jan-12
2.110
1.850
50
Dec-13
1.964
Nov-13
1.957
Oct-13
1.960
Sep-13
1.979
Aug-13
1.908
Jul-13
1.888
Jun-13
2.150
May-13
1.892
Apr-13
1.900
1.950
2.050
1.924
Mar-13
1.846
Feb-13
1.920
Jan-13
1.965
Dec-12
2.032
Nov-12
1.968
2.100
1.940
Sep-12
1.843
Aug-12
1.928
Jul-12
1.940
2.200
1.979
2.250
2.000
2.300
Jun-12
1.960
May-12
1.989
Apr-12 Oct-12
Thousand bpd 2013: 1,931 kbpd 2012: 1,980 kbpd
1Q12 Avg. 2,066
2Q12 Avg. 1,970
3Q12 Avg. 1,904
4Q12 Avg. 1,980
1Q13 Avg. 1,910
2Q13 Avg. 1,931
3Q13 Avg. 1,924
4Q13 Avg. 1,960
6 6
Oil products sales increased by 4% in 2013. Higher increase in production (6%), especially diesel (+8.6%) and gasoline (+12.1%) reduced oil
products import needs.
Sales (2,383 kbpd) and Oil Products Output (2,124 kbpd) in Brazil
Oil Products Sales in Brazil Oil Products Output
937 984
106106
9884
590 LPG
Jet Fuel
Naphtha
Fuel Oil
2,383
2013
Others
+4%
Gasoline
Diesel
231 171
203
2012
2,285
570
224 165
199
Thousand bbl/d
+3.5%
+5.0% 782 850
13790
106
9693
2013
Others 196
Naphtha
LPG
Fuel Oil
2,124
438
238
143
1,997
491
255
2012
206
Gasoline
Diesel
Jet Fuel
+6%
Better performance due to the start-up of new quality and conversion units since
2012, optimization of refining processes and elimination of logistical bottlenecks.
Utilization of refineries reached 97%, higher than 94% in 2012, with a 82% share
of domestic crude oil processed.
+12.1%
+8.6%
Thousand bbl/d
Gasoline (+3.5%): increase in automotive fleet, competitive price relative to ethanol
and increase of the anhydrous ethanol content in Type C gasoline .
Diesel (+5.0%): increase in retail activities, higher thermal consumption, higher grain
harvest and an increase in diesel light vehicle fleet.
Fuel Oil (+16.7%): increased consumption at thermoelectric plants for electricity
generation and higher demand from suppliers of natural gas to thermal power plants.
7 7
Average Realization Price Brazil* x Average Realization Price US Gulf**
*Considers Diesel, Gasoline, LPG, Jet Fuel and Fuel Oil
** Considers Brazilian market volumes for the above mentioned products.
In 2013 we had 3 price increases in diesel and 2 in gasoline, totaling 20% and 11% increases respectively.
The Real devaluation contributed significantly to the non-convergence of prices throughout the year.
Oil Products Price - Brazil vs International
Dec
/13
Nov
/13
Oct
/13
Sep
/13
Aug
/13
Jul/1
3
Jun/
13
May
/13
Apr
/13
Mar
/13
Feb
/13
Jan/
13
Dec
/12
Nov
/12
Oct
/12
Sep
/12
Aug
/12
Jul/1
2
Jun/
12
May
/12
Apr
/12
Mar
/12
Feb
/12
Jan/
12
Pri
ces
(R$/
bb
l)
2012 2013
Average Sales Price USGC
Jun 25th
Adjustments
July 16th Average Sales Price Brazil Adjustments
Jan 30th Mar 6th
Nov 30th
Adjustments
Losses
Gasoline Imports Diesel Imports
Imp
orted
Vo
lum
es (kbp
d)
8 8
million m³/day
Domestic
Bolivia
LNG
SUPPLY DEMAND
40,2
37,0
11,7
39,3
Higher thermoelectric demand (+52%) due to the lower rainfall in the period, met mainly by LNG imports and natural gas from Bolivia.
+15%
85.9
2013
14.5
30.5
40.8
2012
74.9
8.4
27.0
39.5 39.3
23.0
2013 2012
12.1
34.9
11.9
74.5
85.4
38.6
+15%
+52%
2013 x 2012
Higher thermoelectric demand due to lower rainfall.
Thermoelectric generation using natural gas was 6 GW/average in 2013, 58% above the 3.8 GW/average in 2012.
In 2013 and 2012, we met 100% of ONS’s demands (National Operator of the Electric System).
+13%
+73%
Natural Gas Supply and Demand Higher demand for Natural Gas due to increase in thermoelectric demand
Non-thermoelectric
Thermoelectric
Fertilizers*
* Other internal uses in Petrobras
9 9
PROCOP 2013 Operating Costs Optimization Program
PRODESIN 2013 Divestment Program
PROEF 2013 Program to Increase Operational Efficiency
Optimization of operational activities
generated greater productivity levels and
reduced unit costs above expectations
Gain of +63 kbpd in production, with +21
kbpd in UO-BC and +42 kbpd in UO-RIO,
due to the higher level of operational
efficiency.
UO-BC: +7.5 p.p.
UO-RIO: +2.5 p.p.
+68%
2013 Real
6.6
2013 Target
3.9
+115%
2013
7.3
2012
3.4
+2,5 p.p.
With
PROEF
92.4
Without
PROEF
89.8
Results of Structuring Programs in 2013 PROCOP, PRODESIN and PROEF
Actual Transactions: US$ 7.3 billion
Cash contribution: R$ 8.5 billion
Avoided Costs: R$ 6.6 billion
Operational Efficiency (%)
+7.5 p.p.
With
PROEF
75.4
Without
PROEF
67.9
Assets
Financial
Restructuring*
2013*
8.5
8.2
0.3
2012*
6.4
0.6 5.8
+34%
* Petrobras and BR financial assets.
Operational Effriciency (%)
The gains exceeded targets and were obtained
through energy integration, workforce productivity,
maritime transportation and inventories.
R$ billion
R$ billion
US$ billion
Conclusion of 21 divestments since Oct/2012,
totalling US$ 10.7 billion, with US$ 3.4 billion in
2012 and US$ 7.3 billion in 2013.
10 10
Investments totaled R$ 104.4 billion, 24% above 2012, including Libra’s signing fee (R$ 6 billion).
R$
Bill
ion
Annual Investment
+24%
2013
104.4
2012
84.1
29%
6% 5%
57% Gas & Energy
Corporate
Biofuels
Distribution
International
Downstream
E&P
1.1% 1.1%
0.3%
Investment by Segment
Physical and financial monitoring of 158 individualized projects, which represent 73% of investments (S-Curves):
average physical realization of 91% and financial realization of 101%.
2013 Investments: R$ 104.4 Billion
11 11
2013 Results Increase of 6% in Operating Income and 11% in Net Income
Operating Income increase in 2013 due to, mainly, readjustments in the price of oil products and asset sales (PRODESIN). The extension of hedge
accounting since May/2013 contributed to an increase of 11% in the year’s net income.
23.6 +11%
+6% 34.4
21.2
32.4
R$ billion
2012 2013
2013 x 2012 Results Highlights
Higher oil products prices (mainly diesel and gasoline since 2H12 and throughout
2013);
Higher throughput in our refineries, reducing imported oil products share in the
sales mix;
Asset sales gains of PRODESIN – Divestment Program
Lower dry and sub-commercial wells expenses;
Extension of hedge accounting since May/2013;
Lower crude oil exports due to lower production levels, as well as higher domestic
crude oil share in throughput;
Persistence of domestic oil products price differentials relative to international
prices due to the currency devaluation;
Lower finance income due to the sales of government bonds (NTN-B) and
readjustment of judicial deposits in 2012; and
Higher finance expense due to higher debt.
Operating Income
Net Income
12 12
2013 Results EBITDA of R$ 63.0 Billion in 2013, 18% higher than 2012
In 2013, EBITDA was 18% higher than that of 2012 due to, mainly, adjustments of oil products price, asset sales of PRODESIN and lower dry and
sub-commercial wells expenses.
63.0
21.2
34.4
53.4 +18%
+11% 23.6
+6% 32.4
2012 2013
2013 x 2012 EBITDA
Higher oil products prices (mainly diesel and gasoline since 2H12 and
throughout 2013);
Higher throughput in our refineries, reducing imported oil products share in the
sales mix;
Asset sales gains of PRODESIN – Program of Divestitures
Lower dry and sub-commercial wells expenses;
Lower crude oil exports due to lower production levels, as well as higher
domestic crude oil share in throughput;
Persistence of domestic oil products price differentials relative to international
prices due to the currency devaluation
R$ billion
Operating Income
Net Income
EBITDA
13 13
2013 Net Income: Without Structuring Programs Structuring Programs: positive outcome of R$ 9.7 Billion in Net Income
PROCOP (R$ 4.3 Billion), PRODESIN (R$ 3.3 Billion) and PROEF (R$ 2.1 Billion) increased Net Income by 41%.
Divestment Program Operating Costs
Optimization Program
Program to Increase
Operational Efficiency
Of UO-BC and UO-RIO
R$ Billion
Structuring Programs Gains
are equivalent of exports results of
+293 kbpd of crude oil
Structuring Programs +63 kbpd
+100 kbpd
+130 kbpd
2013 Net Income Without
Structuring Programs
13.9
PROEF
R$ -9.7 billion (-41%)
PRODESIN
3.3
PROCOP
23.6
2013 Net Income
2.1
4.3
14 14
Cash in 2013: Structuring Programs Structuring Programs : R$ 14.7 billion more in cash
Positive impact on cash: Structuring programs PRODESIN (R$ 8.9 billion), INFRALOG (R$ 0.8 billion), PRC-Poço (R$ 0.7 billion) and Procop (R$
4.3 billion) enabled a 47% higher cash position.
Avoided CAPEX was not considered in PRC-SUB in 2013
*Sales Value + Avoided CAPEX. **Gain with Income Tax discounted
R$ Billion
Cash Position 2013
46.3
0.8
PRODESIN*
8.9
4.3
PRC Poço
R$ +14.7 billion (+47%)
Cash Position
without Structuring
Programs
PROCOP**
31.6
INFRALOG
0.7
Divestment Program Integrated Management
of Logistcs Projects
Program to Reduce
Well Costs
Operating Costs
Optimization Program
15 15
R$ Billion 12/31/12 12/31/13
Short-term Debt 15.3 18.8
Long-term Debt 181.0 249.0
Total Debt 196.3 267.8
(-) Cash and Cash Equivalents 3 48.5 46.3
= Net Debt 147.8 221.6
US$ Billion
Net Debt 72.3 94.6
2.77
2.322.57
3.05
3.52
31% 31%34% 36%
39%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1,5
2,5
3,5
4,5
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
Net Debt /Adjusted EBITDA Net Debt / Net Capitalization2 1
Debt Ratios
Net Debt/EBITDA reached 3.52 in 2013 (2.77 in 2012), due to an increase in indebtedness as a result of new borrowings and the effect of the
Real devaluation against the Dollar on net debt. Leverage was 39%.
1) Refers to the adjusted EBITDA which excludes equity income and impairment.
2) Net Debt / (Net Debt + Shareholder’s Equity)
3) Includes tradable securities maturing in more than 90 days
16 16
Targets for 2014 Higher oil and oil products production, operational efficiency and cost optimization will drive 2014 results
PROCOP – 2014 Target (R$ billion) Investments (R$ billion)
Oil Products Output (kbpd)
850 908
+1%
2014
2,148
480
760
2013
2,124
491
783
Diesel
Gasoline
Others
+11% +68%
2014
7.3
2013
Real
6.6
2103
Target
3.9
Oil Production (kbpd)
-9%
2014
94.6
2013
104.4 57%
E&P Brasil 64%
E&P Brasil
UO-BC +5.6 p.p.
2014
81.0
2013
75.4
2014 2013
1,931
UO-RIO +0.7 p.p.
2014
93.1
2013
92.4
PROEF
(Operational Efficiency %)
Máximo
Meta
Mínimo
7.5% +/- 1p.p.
+7%
2030 Strategic Plan
18
Agenda
1. 2007 (2020 Strategic Plan) x 2013 (2030 Strategic Plan) Context: Reasons for Revising the Plan
2. Changes in Business Environments
3. Supply x Demand x Prices
4. Petrobras’ Views on Opportunities in Brazil
5. Big Choices and Petrobras’ Strategies
• Exploration and Production
• Refining, Transportation, Marketing and Petrochemical (RTMP)
• Distribution
• Gas, Energy and Gas-Chemical
• Biofuels
• International
6. Challenges of the Corporate Segments
7. Mission, Vision 2030 e Corporate Drivers
19
2030 Strategic Plan
• Created in: 2013
• Drivers: changes in regulatory framework in Brazil – new
Transfer of Rights and Production Sharing Agreement
Regimes, growth in US shale gas and tight oil production
and 2008 world economic crisis.
• 17 year horizon: growth in oil production beyond 2020
demands, on top of the 2013 exploratory potential, the
incorporation of areas acquired in the new bids
(concession and PSA)
Petrobras Strategic Plan: Recent History
Main Drivers for the Revision of 2013 Planning 2030 Vision
2005 2006
2006
Pre-Salt’s Discovery:
Lula (Jul)
2008
First Oil: Pre-Salt
Jubarte EWT (Sep)
2009
First Oil – Santos Pre-Salt:
Lula EWT (May)
2014
Pre-salt’s production
record: 407 kbpd (Feb)
2011
Libra’s discovery
2013
Pre-salt: 300 kbpd only
7 years after discovery*
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2020 Strategic Plan
• Created in: 2007
• Drivers: pre-salt’s discovery and growth of oil
products market in Brazil.
• 13 year horizon: strategies defined to 2020, based
on 2007’s exploratory potential, not considering
future bid rounds.
2013
Libra Auction (Oct)
First PSA Auction
2007
Last Offshore
Areas Bid
2010
Law 12.276: Transfer of Rights
Law 12.304: PPSA
Law 12.351: PSA
*GOM=17 years,
Campos B.=11 years,
North Sea=9 years
2008
Shale Gas – Beginning of US
Shale Gas production
growth
2008
World Economic Crisis
Brent drops to US$ 34,00/bbl
2013
Tight Oil – production
reaches 2.3 MMbpd
20
2007 – year when 2020 Strategic Plan was developed 2013 - year when 2030 Strategic Plan was developed
Positive perspective for the world economy. High growth rates (2008-2012 expected GDP: 5% p.a. – Source: IMF, Oct/2007)
2008 world economic crisis reduces world economic growth expectations. (Expected world GDP for 2014-2030 = 3.6% p.a. – Source: Global Insight, 2013)
Strong growth for the Chinese economy resulting in high commodity prices (China’s economic growth 2000-2013: 9.8% p.a. – Source: IMF, Oct/2013)
Uncertainties surrounding the pace of China’s economic growth and impacts on prices. (China’s economic growth 2014-2030: 4.8 – 6.5% p.a. – Source: EIU and Global Insight, 2013)
Strong oil demand growth. (1.8% p.a. 2003-2007 – Source: IEA, Nov/2007)
Slow-down in oil demand growth (0.7% p.a. 2013-2030 – Source: IEA, Nov/2013)
Projections for oil prices increased every year, due to demand growth and the views on depletion in non-OPEC production. (Average projected price for the 2007-2020 period: US$ 55/bbl in 2007 and US$ 75/bbl in 2008 – Source: Pira, 2007 and 2008)
Oil price stable with perspectives of a small decrease in the mid-term (non-conventionals production growth in US, Irak and Brazil). (2013-2030 projected price: US$ 100/bbl. Source: Pira, 2013)
Great enthusiasm with biofuels. Non-conventionals revolution: 2030 production: tight oil – 5.8 MMbpd and shale gas - 745 bn m³ (Source: IEA, 2013)
Perspective of growth in US dependency on oil and gas imports (growth in LNG imports).
Perspective for US self-sufficiency in Gas by 2019 and reduction of oil imports needs from 7.9 to 3.6 MMbpd in 2030 (Source: IEA, 2013)
1
2
3
4
5
6
Petrobras’ Strategic Plan: WORLD – Business Environment 2007 x 2013
20
21
2007 – year when 2020 Strategic Plan was developed 2013 - year when 2030 Strategic Plan was developed
Perspectives of oil production growth in Brazil due to the Pre-salt’s discoveries. Questions on the existence and feasibility of technologies for Pre-salt production. Examples: salt movements; H2S content; CO2 treatment and reinjection .
Deeper knowledge on the Pre-salt, with successive production records. We already have 10 production units operating in the Pre-salt layer. Experience in the Pre-salt exploration and production and in the reservoir performance led us to the cost optimization phase.
E&P activities in Brazil were regulated solely by the concession framework.
Three regulatory frameworks– Oil and Gas business with three frameworks: Concession, Transfer of Rights and Production Sharing Agreement
Critical resources were mapped to attract foreign suppliers to Brazil. There were uncertainties surrounding the naval industry’s capacity to meet Post-salt + Pre-Salt’s demands.
Local Content Policy is a reality. National industry presses ahead with its learning curve, especially in the naval segment, with perspectives of competitiveness.
Perspectives on oil products demand growth for the 2007-2011 period was 2.8% p.a.: - A 4.1% p.a. fleet growth was expected, alongside wealth creation; - Biodiesel requirements evolving to B5 in 2010 up to 2020.
Perspective on oil products demand growth for the 2014-2018 period of 2.5% p.a. and 2.2% p.a. for 2019-2030 - For 2007-2011 growth amounted to 4.5% p.a. and fleet growth to 7.4% p.a. - A 5.8% fleet growth is expected for the 2014-2018 period and 4.2% for 2019-2030. - Perspective on the evolution of biodiesel requirements from the current B5 to B8 up to 2010 and B10 up to 2023, flat up to 2030
Great expectation on strong ethanol expansion, with the announcement of 100 new projects (Source: Consultoria Ideia/2007)
Lower expectation for ethanol expansion, focused on the recovery of agricultural productivity. Ethanol demand growth of 5.4% p.a. in the 2014-2030 period, being met, up to 2016, by spare capacity.
Petrobras’ Strategic Plan: BRAZIL – Business Environment 2007 x 2013
1
2
3
4
5
21
22
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Demand Projection and Expected Decline of
World Oil Production
Supply challenges
New
Pro
ject
s
Current
Production
2020
To
tal 2
3.1
MM
bp
d
101.5 MM bpd
78.4 MM bpd
Wo
rld
Liq
uid
s D
eman
d (
MM
bp
d)
World Oil Supply x Demand: 2013-2020
Economic feasibility of future oil production
224
514
1.558
1.593
1.118
453
824
1.012
231
1.209
1.358
29
365
486
938
960
1.032
977
814
2.069
1.233
1.377
2.727
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
Europe Others
Caspian
Russia and East Europe
North Sea
Asia Others
Australia
China
Middle East Others
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Iraq
EUA (Alasca)
Canadá
México
EUA (Golfo do México)
Canadá Oil Sands
EUA (Onshore)
Africa Others
North Africa
West Africa
Latin Am. Others
Venezuela
Brazil
Production volumes from new projects (thousand barrels per day)
Latam
5.337
Africa
3.859
North Am.
3.810
Middle East
3.809
Asia
2.394
Europe + FSU
3.888
Total 23.1 MM bpd
Source: Wood Mackenzie Data - Global Oil Supply Tool (May/2013), developed by Petrobras, save for
Brazil data, for which the source is Petrobras’ internal estimates (Jul/2013).
Tight Oil Contribution
(382 Mbpd)
2020 Production Volume from New Projects with production start up
from 2013 on according to WoodMackenzie
23
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Current
Production
Challenges for New Oil Production Projects around 2030
• Each country has specific challenges to sustain or grow production
in the 2030 horizon:
–USA: In America, tight oil sweet spots will be more quickly explored by
2020, increasing project costs in the next decade. Uncertainties
surrounding environmental restrictions persist.
–Brazil: Focus on deep waters, for which the frequency of bid rounds,
opportunities and obligations will be the variables that companies will
consider when evaluating their participation in bids or consortia.
–Canada: High production costs lead to marginal producer status,
demanding a continuous search of efficiency gains
–Russia: Current production in advance phase of decline, demanding
substantial investment in the development of new fields, both in mature
areas and new production frontiers.
– Iraq: sustain production increase through solving internal conflicts.
• Common Challenge: Individual projects management reducing
Capex and Opex.
50.8 MM
bp
d
New
Pro
ject
s
Pro
ject
s In
op
erat
ion
Source: Petrobras development, based on World Energy Outlook/IEA 2013; World Oil Outlook/OPEC 2013;
CERA 2013; WoodMakcenzie 2013.
World Oil Supply x Demand: 2013-2030
Economic feasibility of future oil production
Demand Projection and Expected Decline of
World Oil Production
Supply challenges
Wo
rld
Liq
uid
s D
eman
d (
MM
bp
d)
24
2030 Strategic Plan Assumptions
Brent and Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices
Petrobras’ assumptions on Brent price within the most conservative range of market projections. Petrobras’ projection for Henry Hub natural gas prices is close to the average of long term’s projections.
2013 2014 2015-2017 2018-2030
US$ 107/bbl US$ 105/bbl US$ 100/bbl US$ 95/bbl
Oil prices in US$/bbl (2010 – 2030)
* Projections: AIE (Nov/2013), PIRA (May/2013) ,
WoodMackenzie (March/2013), IHS (Jul/2013), AEO (April/2013).
0123456789
101112
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
Hen
ry H
ub
Nat
. G
as P
rice
s in
US
$/M
M B
tu
(201
4 U
S$)
* Projections: IEA/DOE (June/2012), PIRA (Jan/2013) and CERA
(Oct/20123), Barclays Capital (Nov/2012)
Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices in US$/MMBtu
Petrobras
2013 2014 2015-2017 2018-2030
3.51 US$/MMBtu 4.00 US$/MMBtu 4.60 US$/MMBtu 5.88 US$/MMBtu
Projections*
25
Brazil’s Sedimentary Basins: Areas Granted to Petrobras in 2007 and 2013
Areas Granted to be Explored by Petrobras
in Brazil
2007: 140 thousand km²
2013: 76 thousand km²
In 2007, Petrobras held the rights to an exploratory area 84% larger than 2013’s.
Note: 2013 position does not include Libra and Bids 11 and 12
State Limits
Sedimentary Basin
Petrobras 100%
Petrobras and Partners
26
INTERNATIONAL
DISTRIBUTION
NATURAL GAS,
ENERGY and
GAS-CHEMICAL
BIOFUELS
To produce on average 4.0 million barrels of oil per day in the 2020-2030 period, under
Petrobras’ ownership in Brazil and abroad, acquiring exploration rights to meet this objective
To maintain the leadership in the domestic market for fuels, increasing the value added and
the preference for Petrobras’ brand
To add value to the businesses of the natural gas chain, ensuring the monetization of the
gas from the Pre-salt and Brazil’s land basins.
To keep the growth in biofuels, ethanol and biodiesel, alongside the domestic market for
gasoline and diesel
RTMP
To supply the Brazilian oil products market, reaching a refining capacity of 3.9 million bpd, to
match domestic market demand
Perform E&P activities, focusing on oil and gas exploration in Latin America, Africa and USA
E&P
E&P
Petrobras’ Strategy: Choices of an Integrated Energy Company
27
Exploration and Production
To produce on average 4.0 million
barrels of oil per day in the 2020-
2030 period, under Petrobras’
ownership in Brazil and abroad,
acquiring exploration rights to
meet this objective
28
Source: Petrobras – Dec/2013 – E&P-CORP
Oil and NGL production scenarios in Brazil
Petrobras and Estimators: 2013, 2020 to 2035
2020-2030 Average
Mill
ion
bp
d
Brazil’s Average Oil Production 2020-2030: 5.2 million bpd Petrobras Vision*
In 2035, according to estimators, Brazil’s oil production will range from 4.7 to 6.6 million barrels of oil per day. International Energy Agency places Brazil as the 6th largest oil producer in 2035.
Source: AIE 2013, DOE 2013, WoodMackenzie 2013, IHS - CERA 2013 (The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS.
Any further use or redistribution of this content is strictly prohibited without a written permission by IHS. All rights reserved).
Estimator Brazil’s Oil Production
2020-2030 Average
Brazil’s Oil Production
2035
1. Petrobras - Brazil* 5.2 million bpd Outside SP 2030 horizon
2. DOE 5.0 million bpd 6,6 million bpd
3. WoodMackenzie 4.9 million bpd 5,4 million bpd
4. CERA 4.4 million bpd 4,7 million bpd
5. AIE 5.4 million bpd in 2025 6,0 million bpd
2035
1. 2. 3. 4.
* Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces
for the bid rounds put forward by the Government (Petrobras’ view today, 2013, up to 2030).
29
4,2
Petrobras Big Choice for the E&P segment
4 million bpd average production: 2020 to 2030, Brazil and Abroad
Petrobras chooses to be a company with a potential production capacity of 4 million bpd in its activities in Brazil* and abroad, maximizing profitability.
Petrobras Average Production in Brazil* and Abroad 2020-2030: 4.0 million bpd
Average 2020-2030
Mill
ion
bp
d
Petrobras Average Production in Brazil* 2020-2030: 3.7 million bpd
Average Oil Production in Brazil* Petrobras + Third Parties + Government 2020-2030:
5.2 million bpd
Petrobras Average Production in Brazil* and
Abroad 2013-2020: 3.0 million bpd
Petrobras Average Production in Brazil* 2013-2020:
2.9 million bpd
Source: Petrobras – Dec/2013 – E&P-CORP
* Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces
for the bid rounds put forward by the Government (Petrobras’ view today, 2013, up to 2030).
30
Discover and appropriate reserves in Brazil, keeping a reserve to production ratio above 12 years
Develop exploratory efforts for natural gas in Brazil’s sedimentary land basins
Maximize, with profitability, oil and gas recovery in Brazil’s concessions under production
Develop Pre-salt’s Area production in Brazil
1
2
3
4
Develop exploratory efforts in Brazil’s sedimentary basins, selectively and sharing risks
5
Strategies – E&P Segment E&P: 2013-2030
31
Refining, Transportation, Marketing and
Petrochemical (RTMP)
To supply the Brazilian oil
products market, reaching a
refining capacity of 3.9 million
bpd, to match domestic market
demand
32
Brazil: Oil and NGL production x Oil Products Demand
From 2013 base, oil products market to grow 20% by 2020 (2.7% p.a.) and 47% by 2030 (2.3% p.a.).
Mill
ion
bp
d
3.7
Average Oil Products Demand in Brazil 2020-2030: 3.4 million bpd
Average Oil Production in Brazil* Petrobras + Third Parties + Government 2020-2030:
5.2 million bpd
* Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces for the bid rounds put forward by the Government (Petrobras’ view today, 2013, up to 2030).
33
Brazil: Oil and NGL production x Oil Products Demand
From 2013 base, oil products market to grow 20% by 2020 (2.7% p.a.) and 47% by 2030 (2.3% p.a.).
Mill
ion
bp
d
3.7
Petrobras Average Oil Production in Brazil 2013-2020:
2.9 million bpd
Petrobras Average Oil Production in Brazil 2020-2030:
3.7 million bpd
Average Oil Production in Brazil* Petrobras + Third Parties + Government 2020-2030:
5.2 million bpd
Average Oil Products Demand in Brazil 2020-2030: 3.4 million bpd
* Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces for the bid rounds put forward by the Government (Petrobras’ view today, 2013, up to 2030).
34
Brazil: Oil and NGL Production x Oil Products Demand
Refining Expansion Aligned with the Domestic Market Growth
OBS: Additional throughput capacity from PROMEGA (by/2016): +165 kbpd (existing refineries) + 30 kbpd (RNEST). PROMEGA: Its goal is to increase diesel, jet fuel and gasoline production from the existing refineries, based on the increase in the capacity and efficiency of the processing units
mill
ion
bp
d
PROMEGA
Increase in Capacity by 195 kbpd
Average Oil Production in Brazil* Petrobras+Third Parties+ Government 2020-
2030: 5.2 million bpd
Average Demand for Oil Products in Brazil 2020-2030: 3.4 million bpd
Oil Products Self-sufficiency:
Total throughput = Total demand
Petrobras Average Oil Production in Brazil 2020-2030:
3.7 million bpd
Volumes Self-sufficiency:
Oil production = oil products consumption
Petrobras Average Oil Production in Brazil 2013-2020:
2.9 million bpd
Petrobras’ processing capacity is expected to reach 3.9 million barrels per day by 2030.
*
* Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces for the bid rounds put forward by the Government (Petrobras’ view today, 2013, up to 2030).
35
Distribution
To maintain the leadership in
the domestic market for fuels,
increasing the value added
and the preference for
Petrobras’ brand
36
Oil Products Distribution Markets and Petrobras Market Share
Maintenance of Participation in a Growing Market
Petrobras will grow organically its market share to 38% by 2030 with an investment program in Logistics. The Brazilian oil products market will grow 74% during this period.
79 82 95 101119
38%38%37%36%37%
0
100
200
300
400
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Average
2020-
2030
191
73
2020
163
62
2018
151
56
2014
129
47
2013
126
47
Brazil’s Oil Products Retail Market
BR Distribuidora Share (million m³/year and %)
Market-Share BR Distribuidora BR Distribuidora Others
Regional Growth (2013-2030)
North
+3.4%a.a. Northeast
+4.0%a.a.
Center-West
+3.3%a.a. Southeast
+2.6%a.a.
South
+3.6%a.a.
million m³ %
37
Natural Gas, Energy and Gas-Chemical
To add value to the businesses
of the natural gas chain,
ensuring the monetization of the
gas from the Pre-salt and
Brazil’s land basins.
38
Natural Gas Supply and Demand Balance: 2013 - 2030 (million m³/day)
Supply Demand
LNG Regasification
Thermoelectric Demand Petrobras + Third Parties
42
12
35
2014
47
12
35
2013
45
12
33
Average
2020-2030
50
11
35
2020
49
11
35
2018
47
Inflexible
Flexible
To be contracted
NG Distributors Demand 57
52494139
2014 2013 Average
2020-2030
2020 2018
Demand
Petrobras Demand: Fertilizers + Refineries
555
33
31127
21
2014
16
13
2013
12
9
Average
2020-2030
35
27
2020
28
22
2018
Refining
Fertilizers
Fertilizers
under Evaluation
96 124 129 143 98 146 157 168 118 105 Total
77777
Average
2020-2030
41
20
14
2020
41
20
14
2018
41
20
14
2014
41
20
14
2013
27
20 Baía de
Guanabara
Pecém
TRBA
Bolivia Imports
2020
24
6
2013
30
24
6
Average
2020-2030
30
24
6
30
24
6
2018
30
24
6
2014
30
Inflexible
Flexible
Domestic Supply of NG¹
8
47
2013
41
41
Average
2020-2030
97
89
2020
86
86
2018
75
75
2014
47 Supply E&P
Supply E&P
New BIDs
Total ¹ Includes NG from Partners and Third Parties. ** Supply expects the renovation of the GSA with YPFB (Bolivia) and does not consider the need of a 4th LNG terminal.
**
**
The natural gas imports and transportation infrastructure already installed is enough to meet Petrobras’ demand until 2030*.
* Excludes natural gas production outflow and processing infrastructure.
39
Biofuels
To keep the growth in
biofuels, ethanol and
biodiesel, alongside the
domestic market for
gasoline and diesel
40 40
Participation in the Biofuels Market: 2013 - 2030
Increase of Ethanol and Biofuel production, following the growth of the gasoline and diesel domestic market.
986934822
642559422395
1,501
2020
1,275
2018
1,175
2014 2013
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Average
2020-2030
Gasoline Type A and Ethanol Market ¹ (thous. bpd)
¹ Consists of Gasoline Type A, anhydrous ethanol and hydrous ethanol.
Ethanol Market
Gasoline Type A and
Ethanol Market
PBIO Ethanol
PBIO Ethanol + Partners
119
92
61
2218
60
43
26
0
40
80
120
Average
2020-2030
2020 2018 2014
9
2013
8
Participation of PBIO in Ethanol Production (thous. bpd)
1521071005450
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Average
2020-2030
1,618
2020
1,380
2018
1,289
2014
1,083
2013
1,054
Diesel and Biodiesel ² (thous. bpd)
Biodiesel Market
Diesel and Biodiesel Market
² Domestic market only
36
25
18
1110
32
23
16
980
10
20
30
40
2018 2014 2013 2020 Average
2020-2030
PBIO Biodiesel
PBIO Biodiesel + Partners
Participation of PBIO in Biodiesel Production (thous. bpd)
41
International Area
Perform E&P activities,
focusing on oil and gas
exploration in Latin America,
Africa and USA
42
International Oil and Gas Production: 2013 - 2030
thousand boed
Investment through participation in exploratory opportunities in Latin America, Africa and the U.S., especially from 2019 onwards. Act on the conservation of the natural gas supply from Bolivia to Brazil and on non-conventionals in Argentina and USA.
Petrobras’ Average International Oil and Natural Gas Production 2013-2020: 229 kboe
Petrobras’ Average International Oil Production 2013-2020: 123 kbpd
Average 2020-2030
Petrobras Average International Oil and Natural Gas Production 2020-2030: 479 kboe
Petrobras’ Average International Oil Production 2020-2030: 267 kbpd
43
Challenges of the Corporate Segments Human Resources (HR)
Social Responsibility (SR)
Health, Safety, Environment and Energy Efficiency (HSEE)
Technology
44
To have an innovative and flexible human resource program, taking as a base the
appreciation of the employees and their contribution to the sustainability of
Petrobras
Social Responsibility Challenges (SR)
Human Resources Challenges (HR)
Challenges of the Corporate Segments
To ensure the alignment and integration of social responsibility in the decision
making processes and in the management of the business
Technolgy Challenges
Health, Safety, Environment and Energy Efficiency Challenges (HSEE)
To keep the technological system recognized for providing technologies for the
sustainable growth of the Company
To consolidate HSEE issues as a principle of the Company’s operations and
permanent commitment from the workforce
45
Mission, Vision 2030 and Corporate Drivers
To be one of the five largest integrated energy
companies in the world¹ and the preferred one
by its stakeholders.
¹ Metric: one of the five largest oil producers among all companies, with or without shares in stock
exchanges. (Source for calculation: Petroleum Intelligence Weekly – PIW - Annual Report )
Integrated Growth
Corporate Drivers
Profitability Social and Environmental
Responsibility
Mission
To perform in the oil and gas industry in an
ethic, safe and profitable way, with social and
environmental responsibility, providing products
suited to the needs of its clients and contributing
to the development of Brazil and the countries
where it operates.
Vision 2030
2014-2018 Business
and Management Plan
47
Exploratory Success and Reserves Increase
Brazil
Discoveries: 46
• Offshore: 24
• Onshore: 22
Exploratory Success Ratio: 75%
Reserves: 16.0 Billion boe
RRR¹: 131%
> 100% for the 21st consecutive year
R/P²: 20.0 years
Pre-Salt Discoveries: 14, of which 5 were pioneers
wells
Exploratory Success Ratio: 100%
Reserves: 300 km of SE region, 55% of GDP
47 ¹ RRR: Reserves Replacement Ratio
² R/P: Reserve / Production
TANGO(CES-161) PITU(RNS-158)
PAD FARFAN-1(SES-176D PAD MURIÚ-1(SES-175D) PAD MOITA BONITA(SES-178)
SÃO BERNARDO(ESS-216)
ARJUNA(ESS-211)
RIO PURUS(CXR-1DA)
PAD TAMBUATÁ SANTONIANO(GLF-35)
EXT DE FORNO(AB-125)
EXT DE BRAVA (VD-19)
MANDARIM(MLS-105)
BENEDITO(BP-8)
FRANCO NORDESTE(RJS-724)
FRANCO LESTE(RJS-723)
FRANCO SUL(RJS-700)
FLORIM(RJS-704)
IARA ALTO ÂNGULO(RJS-715)
ENTORNO DE IARA-1(RJS-711)
PAD IARA EXT-4(RJS-706)
NE TUPI-2(RJS-721)
JÚPITER BRACUHI(RJS-713)
SUL DE TUPI(RJS-698))
SAGITÁRIO(SPS-98)
46 discoveries in the last 14 months (Jan/13 – Feb/14), of which 24 were offshore (15 in Pre-salt).
State Limit
Sedimentary Basin
100% Petrobras
Petrobras and Partners
48 Versão 20/02 22:00
48 Versão 20/02 22:00
2014 Growth:
7.5% ± 1p.a.
2014-2018 BMP: Petrobras Oil and NGL Production Curve in Brazil
Oil and NGL production operate by Petrobras in 2020 will be
4.9 million of bpd.
49 Versão 20/02 22:00
49 Versão 20/02 22:00
2014 Growth:
7.5% ± 1p.a.
2014-2018 BMP: Petrobras Oil, NGL and Natural Gas Production Curve in Brazil
50 50
• Norte Pq. Baleias
(P-58) 1st Quarter
Sapinhoá Pilot
(Cid. São Paulo)
Baúna
(Cid. Itajaí)
• Iracema Sul
(Cid. Mangaratiba)
• Roncador IV
(P-62) 2º Quarter
• Sapinhoá Norte
(Cid. Ilhabela)
• Papa-Terra
(P-61 + TAD ) 2nd Quarter
• Florim
• Júpiter • Lula Alto
• Lula Central
• Lula Sul
(P-66)
• Búzios I
(P-74)
• Lapa
• Lula Norte
(P-67)
• Búzios II
(P-75)
• Lula Ext. Sul
e ToR Sul de Lula
(P-68)
• Lula Oeste
(P-69)
• Búzios III
(P-76)
•Tartaruga Verde and
Mestiça
• Maromba I
• Iara Horst
(P-70)
• Búzios IV
(P-77)
• Entorno de Iara
(P-73)
• NE de Tupi
(P-72)
• Iara NW
(P-71)
• Sul Pq. Baleias
• Deep Water ES
• Carcará
• Búzios V
• Espadarte III
Production Units in operation
• Deep Water I
SE
• Marlim I
•Revitalization
• Deep Water II
SE
• Libra
• Marlim II
Revitalization Lula NE Pilot
(Cid. Paraty)
Papa-Terra
(P-63)
Roncador III
(P-55)
--- Production Units not bid as of Feb/2014
1st Oil Forecast
3rd Quarter
4th Quarter
• Iracema Norte
(Cid. Itaguaí)
3rd Quarter
1st Oil Forecast 9 Production Units
Concluded
• Norte Pq. Baleias
(P-58)
• Roncador IV
(P-62)
• Papa-Terra
(P-61)
• Papa-Terra
(TAD)
• Production Units Delivered in 2013
2014 Growth:
7.5% ± 1p.a.
2014-2018 BMP: Petrobras Oil and NGL Production Curve in Brazil Oi and NGL production (million bpd)
2014 - 2015 2016 - 2020
51 51 Pro
du
ctio
n U
nit
s D
eliv
ered
, un
der
Co
nst
ruct
ion
an
d u
nd
er B
idd
ing
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013
1,000 kbpd 300 kbpd
Additional Installed Capacity Operated by Petrobras 150 kbpd 1,000 kbpd 900 kbpd 1,050 kbpd
Cid. Ilhabela
Cid. Mangaratiba
P-75
P-67
P-74
P-66
P-68
P-69
P-76
P-77
P-72
P-71
P-73
P-67 Cid. Itaguaí
Cid. Maricá
Cid. Saquarema
Cid. Caraguatatuba
Cid. São Paulo
Cid. Itajaí
Cid. Paraty
P-63
P-55
P-61
P-58
P-62
TAD
PU to be bid:
• Deep Water ES
• Marlim I Revitalization
• Deep Water I SE
• Maromba I
• Sul do Pq. das Baleias
• Carcará
+ 600 kbpd
PU under bidding:
•Tartaruga Verde and
Mestiça
+ 150 kbpd
P-70
Under Bidding Process:
• Tartaruga Verde and Mestiça
• Deep Water ES
• Marlim I Revitalization
• Deep Water I SE
• Maromba I
• Sul do Pq. das Baleias
• Carcará
52 52
PL
SV
s u
nd
er O
per
atio
n a
nd
Co
nst
ruct
ion
2014 2016 2014
Current Fleet = 11 PLSVs + 2
19 New PLSVs to support the Oil Curve + 8 throughout 2014 + 9
P-58
2017
Sunrise 270t
Deep Constructor 125t
Skandi Vitória 300t
Skandi Niterói 270t
Kommandor 3000 135t
Normand7 340t
Seven Mar 340t
Seven Seas 430t
Seven Condor 230t
Seven Phoenix 340t
McDermott
Agile 200t
North Ocean 102 210t
Polar Onyx 275t
Coral do Atlântico 550t Estrela do Mar 550t
Lay Vessel 105 300t
Seven Waves 550t
1 PLSVs of 300t
(The Netherlands)
Sapura Diamante 550t
Sapura Topázio 550t
3 PLSVs of 550t
(The Netherlands)
2 PLSVs of 650t
(The Netherlands)
1 PLSVs of 300t
(Suape)
1 PLSVs of 550t
(The Netherlands)
1 PLSVs of 300t
(Suape)
2 PLSVs of 550t
(The Netherlands)
PLSV: Pipe Laying Support Vessel
53 53
Brazil: Oil and NGL Production x Oil Products Demand
Refining Expansion Aligned with Domestic Market Growth
RNEST
1st Phase
4th Quarter
RNEST
2nd Phase
2nd Quarter
Comperj
1st Phase
Premium I
1st Phase Premium II
PROMEGA additional refining capacity (by Dec/2016): +165 kbpd (current refineries) + 30 kbpd (RNEST).
PROMEGA targets are to increase diesel, jet fuel and gasoline production of our refineries, based on capacity and efficiency increase of processing units.
Mill
ion
bp
d
PROMEGA
Capacity Expansion of 195 kbpd
Petrobras’ refining capacity should reach 3.3 million bpd in 2020, aligned with domestic market growth.
54 54
RNEST and COMPERJ Refineries
Physical and Financial Monitoring
PNG 13-17 2016
Projetado 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
mai
-04
nov-
04m
ai-0
5no
v-05
mai
-06
nov-
06m
ai-0
7no
v-07
mai
-08
nov-
08m
ai-0
9no
v-09
mai
-10
nov-
10m
ai-1
1no
v-11
mai
-12
nov-
12m
ai-1
3no
v-13
mai
-14
nov-
14m
ai-1
5no
v-15
mai
-16
nov-
16m
ai-1
7no
v-17
mai
-18
nov-
18m
ai-1
9no
v-19
mai
-20
nov-
20m
ai-2
1no
v-21
PNG 12-16 PNG 13-17 Realizado Projetado
Physical Monitoring – S-Curve
(%)
RNEST Start-up: 4th Quarter
PNG 13-17 2014
Projetado 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
abr-
05ou
t-05
abr-
06ou
t-06
abr-
07ou
t-07
abr-
08ou
t-08
abr-
09ou
t-09
abr-
10ou
t-10
abr-
11ou
t-11
abr-
12ou
t-12
abr-
13ou
t-13
abr-
14ou
t-14
abr-
15ou
t-15
abr-
16ou
t-16
abr-
17ou
t-17
abr-
18ou
t-18
abr-
19ou
t-19
abr-
20ou
t-20
PNG 12-16 PNG 13-17 Realizado Projetado
Physical Monitoring – S-Curve
BMP 13-17: 87%
Accomplished: 84%
PNG 13-17: US$ 13.457 MM
Projetado: US$ 13.596 MM
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
jan-
10
jul-1
0
jan-
11
jul-1
1
jan-
12
jul-1
2
jan-
13
jul-1
3
jan-
14
jul-1
4
jan-
15
jul-1
5
jan-
16
jul-1
6
jan-
17
jul-1
7
jan-
18
jul-1
8
jan-
19
jul-1
9
jan-
20
jul-2
0
jan-
21
jul-2
1
US
$ M
M
PNG 13-17 Realizado Projetado
(%)
Financial Monitoring – S-Curve
Financial Monitoring – S-Curve
BMP 13-17: 7,882 Million
Accomplished: 7,573 Million
PNG 13-17: US$ 18.515 MM
Projetado: US$ 18.579 MM
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
abr-
05ou
t-05
abr-
06ou
t-06
abr-
07ou
t-07
abr-
08ou
t-08
abr-
09ou
t-09
abr-
10ou
t-10
abr-
11ou
t-11
abr-
12ou
t-12
abr-
13ou
t-13
abr-
14ou
t-14
abr-
15ou
t-15
abr-
16ou
t-16
abr-
17ou
t-17
abr-
18ou
t-18
abr-
19ou
t-19
abr-
20ou
t-20
US
$ M
M
PNG 13-17 Realizado Projetado
IMPLEMENTION MILESTONES
1 - Start-up - ETA (Mar/2014)
2 - Start-up - ETDI (Sep/2014)
3 - Start-up UDA 11 (Oct/2014)
4 - Start-up UCR 21 (Nov/2014)
5 - Start-up HDT Diesel 31 (Nov/2014)
IMPLEMENTATION MILESTONES
1 - Start-up – ETA (Jun/2015)
2 - Start-up - ETDI (Jun/2015)
3 - Start-up - UDAV (Ago/2016)
4 - Start-up - UCR (Ago/2016)
5 - Start-up - HCC (Ago/2016)
BMP 13-17: 15,246 Million
Accomplished: 14,841 Million
BMP 13-17: 67%
Accomplished: 66%
feb/14
COMPERJ Start-up: 2016
feb/14
BMP 12-16 BMP 13-17 Accomplished Planned BMP 13-17 Accomplished Planned
BMP 12-16 BMP 13-17 Accomplished Planned BMP 13-17 Accomplished Planned
BMP 13-17
2016
Planned
2016
Planned
2014
BMP 13-17
2014 BMP 13-17
US$ 18.515 MM
Planned
US$ 13.596 MM
BMP 13-17
US$ 13.457 MM
Planned
US$ 18.579 MM
55 55
Natural Gas, Energy and Gas-Chemical
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
+20%
2020
7,2
6.0
1.2
2018
6.8
6.0
0.8
2014
6,3
6.0
0.3
2013
6.0
6.0
Installed Capacity of
Thermoelectric Generation
(GW) Current Capacity
New TP
52494139
0
20
40
60
+33%
2020 2018 2014 2013
NG Distributor
Demand
(million m³/d)
0.7
2018
4.5
3.0
1.5
0.0
+169%
2020
3.5
2.8
1.8
1.6
3.5
2.7
0.8
2014
0.2
2013
1.3
1.1 0.2
Ammonia and Urea
Market Supply
(million ton/year)
Ammonia
Urea
Thermoelectric Power Plant projects:
TP Baixada Fluminense Feb/2014
TP Azulão 2017
TP Bahia II 2020
TP Sudeste VI 2020
Fertilizers projects:
Ammonium Sulfate Feb/2014
UNF III (MS) 4th Quarter - 2014
UNF V (MG) 2017
Infrastructure projects of NG:
Delivery gates along GASBOL and NE and
SE Network
Monetization of Natural Gas reserves by increasing the capacity of thermoelectric generation and of nitrogenous fertilizers, as well as the NG distributor demand.
56 56
International: Oil and Natural Gas Production
Production growth by participation in exploratory opportunities in Latin America, Africa and the USA. Maintenance of Bolivian gas supply to Brazil and minority operation in non-conventional in Argentina and the USA.
294253
177
152140
92
2020 2019 2017 2018 2016 2014 2015
Petrobras International Oil and Natural Gas Production Petrobras International Oil Production
kboed
2014-2020 Growth rate: 8.9 % p.a.
2014-2020 Growth rate: 8.7 % p.a.
57 57
• Management
focused on
reaching
physical and
financial targets
of each project
PERFORMANCE
• Guarantee the
expansion of
the business
with solid
financial
indicators
CAPITAL
DISCIPLINE
• Priority for
oil and
natural gas
exploration &
production
projects in
Brazil
PRIORITY
2014 2018
Financiability Assumptions
• Investment Grade rating maintenance
• No new equity issuance
• Convergence with International Prices (Oil Products)
• Partnerships and Business Models Restructuring
2014-18 Business and Management Plan Fundamentals
58 58
BMP 2014-2018
US$ 220.6 billion
2014-2018 BMP Investments
Approved by the Board of Directors of Petrobras on 02/25/2014
• Investment Grade Rating maintenance:
− Return of the debt ratios and leverage
to their limits within 24 months2
− Leverage lower than 35%
− Net Debt/Ebitda lower than 2.5x
• No new equity issuance
• Convergence with International Prices (Oil
Products)
• Partnerships and Business Models
Restructuring
Financiability Assumptions
38.7
(18%)
153.9
(70%)
Distribution
Biofuels
Downstream
Other Areas 1 International
Gas and Energy Engineering, Technology and Materials
E&P
2.2 (1%)
1.0 (0.4%)
2.7 (1.2%)
2,3 (1.0%)
9.7 (4%)
10.1 (5%)
1) Financial Area, Strategy and Corporate-Services
2) Material Fact of 11/29/2013
59 59
2014-2018 BMP Investments: US$ 220.6 Billion
Portfolio of Projects Under Implementation, Bidding Process and Evaluation
Under Implementation
• Projects being executed
(construction)
• Projects already bid
• Resources required for studies
of Projects Under Evaluation
=
38.7
(18%)
153.9
(70%) 2,2
(1%) 1,0
(0,4%)
2,7 (1,2%)
2,3 (1,0%)
9,7 (4%)
10,1 (5%)
Total Investments
US$ 220.6 Billion
Portfolio of Projects
Under Evaluation
US$ 13.8 Billion
Under Bidding Process
•E&P projects in Brazil
•Premium I Refinery
•Premium II Refinery
• Projects under Studies
in Phase I, II or III
(except E&P in Brazil)
Oil Production 2020:
4.2 million bpd No impact in Oil Production 2020
+
Portfolio of Projects
Under Implementation + Under Bidding Process
US$ 206.8 Billion
1) Financial Area, Strategy and Corporate-Services
Distribution
Biofuels
Downstream
Other Areas 1 International
Gas and Energy Engineering, Technology and Materials
E&P
¹ Includes E&P projects in Brazil that must pass through bidding process of
their units, as well as Premium I and Premium II refineries that bidding
process will be done in 2014.
60 60
112,5(73%)
18,0(12%)
23,4(15%)
Petrobras Investments in Exploration and Production: US$ 153.9 billion
Total E&P
US$ 153.9 bilhões
Production Development Exploration Infrastructure and Support
E&P Petrobras
US$ 153.9 Billion (77%)
= + E&P Partners
US$ 44.8 Billion (23%)
Total with Partners
US$ 198.7 Billion (100%)
Pre-Salt Post-Salt
Production Development + Exploration
US$ 135.9 billion
Pre-Salt (Concession)
Transfer of Rights
PSA (Libra)
53,9(40%) 82,0
(60%)
61 61
9,092%
0,050,5%
0,66%
0,010,1% 0,05
0,5%0,1
0,7%
Projects Under Implementation
RNEST (Pernambuco)
COMPERJ 1st phase (Rio de Janeiro)
PROMEF – 45 Vessels to transport Oil
and Oil Products
Projects Under Bidding Process
Premium I – 1st phase (Maranhão)
Premium II (Ceará)
Projects Under Implementation
UNF III (Mato Grosso do Sul)
UNF V (Minas Gerais)
Rote 2: Gas pipeline and NGPU
Rote 3: Gas pipeline and NGPU
Downstream
Gas, Energy and
Gas-Chemical
International Projects Under Implementation
E&P USA – Saint Malo
E&P USA – Cascade and Chinook
E&P USA – Lucius
E&P Argentina – Medanito and Entre Lomas
E&P Bolivia – San Alberto and San Antonio
E&P Nigeria – Egina
US$ 38.7 billion
US$ 10.1 billion
US$ 9.7 billion
Petrobras Investments: US$ 58.5 billion
Downstream – Gas, Energy and Gas-Chemical – International
Logistics for Ethanol
Corporate
Petrochemical
Fleet Expansion
Logistics for Oil
Quality and Conversion
Operational Improvement
Refining Capacity Expansion
Distribution
Gas-Chemical Operational Units (Nitrogenous)
Regas - LNG
Network
Energy
Distribution
Corporate
Gas & Energy
Refining & Marketing
Exploration & Production
Petrochemical
1,313%
2,625%
6,161%
0,11%
16,843%
9,424%
5,514%
1,43%
3,39%
1,44%
0,41%
0,31%
0,31%
Projects under implementation, under evaluation and under bidding were included. .
62 62
2014-2018 BMP: Investment and Operating Costs Management
2014-2018 BMP
US$ 220.6 Billion
PRC-Poço Program to Reduce Well
Costs
PRC-Sub Program to Reduce
Subsea Facilities Costs
PROEF
Program to Increase
Operational Efficiency
UO-BC
UO-RIO
PROCOP Operating Costs
Optimization Program
INFRALOG – Logistic Infrastructure Optimization Program
Local Content Management– Take advantage of the industry´s capacity to maximize gains to Petrobras
Health, Safety, Environment and Energy Efficiency
PROCOP: Focus on OPEX, operating costs of the Company activities – Manageable Operating Costs..
PRC-Poço: Focus on CAPEX dedicated to Wells construction – Investments in Drilling and Completion.
PRC Sub: Focus on CAPEX dedicated to subsea systems construction.
63 63
2014-2018 BMP
Incorporates operational efficiency gains from PROCOP
* UEDC = Utilized Equivalent Distillation Capacity 2014-18 period: projected with nominal values.
Lif
tin
g C
ost
(R
$/b
oe)
:
27,3
34,8
24,2
32,7
2018 2014
-7.2% p.a.
-5.9% p.a.
10,83
10,11
10,50
10,06
2018 2014
+0.12% p.a.
+0.78% p.a.
1,177
2018
1,013
1,240
2014
1,029 -0.40% p.a.
+1.32% p.a.
Costs reduction between 2013 and 2016 with potential savings of R$ 37.5 billion in nominal values
Lo
gis
tic
Co
st in
Do
wn
stre
am
(R
$/b
bl)
: R
efin
ing
Co
st
(R$
tho
us.
/UE
DC
*):
Without PROCOP
With PROCOP
Without PROCOP
With PROCOP
Without PROCOP
With PROCOP
Gains from PROCOP reduce Logistic Cost:
Reduction in shipping costs: simplification of customs procedures; optimization
of fuel consumption; and implementation of new management tools.
Optimization of inventory levels of oil and oil products.
Reduction of stored water in the logistics system.
Gains from PROCOP reduce Lifting Cost:
Optimization of routine processes and resources used in the production of oil &
gas.
Excellence level in the management of materials and spares.
Adequacy of overhead.
Gains from PROCOP reduce Refining Cost:
Integrating common and interdependent activities among refineries.
Optimized use of support resources.
Optimization in the consumption of energy, catalyzers and chemicals.
64 64
2014-2018 BMP: Financiability Analysis– US$ 206.8 billion
Under Implementation
• Projects being executed
(construction)
• Projects already bid
• Resources required for
studies of Projects Under
Evaluation
=
Total Investment
US$ 220.6 billion
Projects Under Evaluation
US$ 13.8 billion
• Projects under Studies
in Phase I, II or III
(except E&P in Brazil)
Oil Production 2020:
4.2 million bpd No impact in Oil Production 2020
+
Projects Under Implementation + Projects
Under Bidding Process
US$ 206.8 billion
Financiability
US$ 206.8 billion
1) Financial Area, Strategy and Corporate-Services
2) As occurred in 2012 (2012-2016 BMP ) and in 2013 (2013-2017 BMP).
Low maturity of projects: not
considered in the
financiability analysis2
153.9
(70%)
38.7
(18%)
2.2 (1%)
1,0 (0.4%)
2.7 (1.2%)
2,3 (1.0%)
9.7 (4%)
10.1 (5%)
Distribution
Biofuels
Downstream
Other Areas 1 International
Gas and Energy Engineering, Technology
and Materials
E&P
Under Bidding Process
•E&P projects in Brazil
•Premium I Refinery
•Premium II Refinery
¹ Includes E&P projects in Brazil that must pass through bidding process of
their units, as well as Premium I and Premium II refineries that bidding
process will be done in 2014.
65
E&P and Dowstream Share Evolution in the Business and Management Plan Portfolio of Projects for Financiability Evaluation
* Gas and Energy, International, BR Distribuidora, PBio , Engineering Technology and Materials (ETM) and Corporate and Services Area
2014-2018 BMP
Total Capex
2012-2016 BMP
Total Capex
2013-2017 BMP
Total Capex
2010-2014 BMP 2011-2015 BMP
E&P
Downstream
Other Areas* P
ort
folio
of
Pro
ject
s fo
r
Fin
anci
abili
ty E
valu
atio
n
US$ 224.0 Billion Investment US$ 224.7 Billion US$ 236.5 Billion US$ 236.7 Billion US$ 220.6 Billion
E&P share in Petrobras investments has been increasing in the last five Business and Management Plan
48%
35%
17%
52%
33%
11% 15%
18%
27%
62%
14%
30%
56%
70%
12%
66 66
2014-2018 BMP: Financial Planning Assumptions Financing analysis only incorporates projects under Implementation + Bidding = US$ 206.8 Billion
Main Assumptions for Cash Flow Generation and Investment Levels
2014-2018 BMP is based on constant currencies from 2014.
Brent Prices (US$/bbl) US$ 105 in 2014, declining to US$ 100 by 2017 and to US$ 95 in the long term
Average Exchange Rate (R$/US$) R$ 2.23 in 2014, strengthening to R$ 1.92 in the long term
Leverage Limit: < 35% │ Declining leverage (although limit surpassed in 2014)
Net Debt/ EBITDA Limit: < 2.5x │ Limit will be surpassed in 2014 and will fall below 2.5x from 2015 and below 2.0x in
the end of period
Oil Product Prices in Brazil Convergence of prices in Brazil to international benchmarks, according to diesel and gasoline price
policy appreciated by the Board of Directors on November 29th, 2013.
No equity issuance Investment grade maintenance
67 67
2014-2018 BMP: Operating Cash Flow and Funding Needs
61,3
165,0
Operating Cash Flow (After Dividends) and Divestments
Third-party resources (Debt)
Cash Utilization
Business Model Restructuring
207,1
39,8
Amortization
Investments
Annual borrowing needs 2014-2018
Gross – US$ 12.1 billion │Net – US$ 1.1 billion
Additional funding needs will be funded exclusively through new
debt. No equity issuance is envisaged
Free cash flow, before dividends, from 2015 on.
Net borrowing needs below previous BMP due to:
• Higher oil production.
• Expansion of refining capacity, reducing oil products imports.
• Business model restructuring, which decreases cash needs
throughout the BMP.
182.2
60.5
9.1 9.9
206.8
54.9
261.7 261.7
Fontes Usos
US
$ b
ilhão
Sources Uses
US
$ B
illi
on
68 68
2014-2018 BMP: Leverage and Net Debt/EBITDA
Declining leverage, within maximum limit of 35% from 2015 on
Net Debt/EBITDA comply with the limit from 2015 on
Leverage Net Debt/EBITDA
69
2014 – 2018
Business and Management Plan
The End