The World OSFelix Petersen, Faber Ventures 2016

The last 10 years…Booooooring

• The Future from 1999 (Nokia Communicator anyone?) got evenly distributed

• Apple and Google as Gatekeepers in the App Economy

• No Oxygen for new Startups

• Yet another Ultra Specific SaaS>

• Everything felt really incremental

We are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. — Vernor Vinge     

2010 2015 2020

The Ingredients of the “Next Stage”

1.Massive Explosion in Artificial Intelligence

Pseudo AI• Parser and

Decision Tree based

• ELIZA Bots

ANI• Domain

Specific, ‘real’ AI

• Machine Learning

• Bots on Messengers

AGI / ASI• General Artificial

Intelligence • Super Artificial Intelligence

(SAI) • Some incomprehensible

Shit • Most likely Extinction

1965 2015 2040

There are only two more stages for our species:

The Next

The Last

http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html

The Ingredients of the “Next Stage”

1. Massive Explosion in Artificial Intelligence

2. The Rise of the Freelance Economy

80% of Jobs WILL disappear in their current form

The Case of Transportation•Fully Autonomous Cars by 2020 available to Public (According to Uber and Google)

•Gone: $198B Auto Insurance Market, $98B Auto Finance Market, $100B Parking Industry, $300B Automotive Aftermarket

• Also Gone: 884K Jobs in manufacturing, 3.02M Dealer and Maintenance, 6M professional driving jobs,

http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2015/01/27/how-ubers-autonomous-cars-will-destroy-10-million-jobs-and-reshape-the-economy-by-2025-lyft-google-zack-kanter/

Sectors of Employment in the US 2014

12 %

6 %5 %1 %

76 %

ServicesAgricultureUnemployedSelf EmployedManufacturing

http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_201.htm https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2129.html

Other Sectors

Sectors of Employment in the US 2014

12 %

6 %

5 %1 %

76 %

ServicesAgricultureUnemployedSelf EmployedManufacturing

Sectors of Employment in the US 2024?

10 %

65 %

5 %1 %

19 %

ServicesAgricultureUnemployedSelf EmployedManufacturing

http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_201.htm https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2129.html

Two Ways this can go

Craft and Artisanal

Spectrum of Jobs

The people close to the servers

“Normal Jobs”

The Good Scenario:

• Interest Based Micro-Work • Universal Basic Income • Fab-Labs, Interest Networks • Talent / Craft Match • Universal Hyper Renaissance • Work is not a necessity

The Bad Scenario:

• Global Gig Workforce • Global De-Coupling of wealth • No Universal Basic Income • the 0.00001% vs. the rest • Class Warfare

The Positive Take• Talent / Work Mismatch around 80% right now. Most

people don’t work on what they are good at

• Money is not a scarce resource anymore

• Universal Basic Income will come

• Ubiquitous Availability of Talent and Interest Based Microwork

• The Star Trek Vision: People won’t have to work for their daily bread anymore

The Ingredients of the “Next Stage”

1. Massive Explosion in Artificial Intelligence

2. The Rise of the Freelance Economy

3. Ubiquitous Natural Language Access to EVERYTHING

The rise of the messenger• Usage has surpassed

Social Networks

• WeChat leading the way

• Slackbots

• FB Messenger Platform

We Chat• Messaging with

Friends AND Strangers

• Local Discovery

• Premier Way to communicate with Brands and Businesses Online and Offline

• Payment

• On Demand Everything

Your Phone now giving you access to EVERYTHING, ANYTIME, ANYWHERE

http://fin.ventures

Operator

Domain Specific General

AI Agents

Human Agents

GAI-Territory

x.ai

unbabel

chat-shopper

Fin

Mission Control

Luka

White Rabbit

Magic

GoButler

chat-shopper

DigitsPenny

Hard Stop for now

1990 1996 2008 2016Pre-Web Web Apps Conversational

Intuitive Un-Intuitive Semi-Intuitive Intuitive

Session-Based AsynchronousSession-Based Session-Based

9-5 Always On Always On Always On

Ubiquitous Smartphones

Messaging, Bots, Natural Language Interfaces

Existing and accessible large data sets

Existing Engines

+

+

+

=Access To EVERYTHING, ANYWHERE, ANYTIME

The Ultimate Superpower

The World OS

The World OS Stack

Engines / Data Human MicroworkersAPI’s

Customer Service SalesAWSbooking.comAIR-BnB

Ebay TripAdvisor Domain Experts

Intelligent Dispatch Layer

Software Bots / AIScheduling

Google Calendar

Translation Info Aggregation

NLP Digestion Layer

Platform LayerWeChat FB Messenger WhatsApp SMS

Human Users

UI

Stripe

Voice

Payment

Robots / Cars

Text

https://www.theinformation.com/on-bots-conversational-apps-and-fin

Implications• Google might loose its’ Gatekeeper function and new

Gatekeepers will emerge

• The power is shifting back to consumers. No more display ads, “recommended reading”, landing pages, etc.

• The heavy lifting will be done on the service/server side. The magic happens behind the scenes. No more “Onboarding”, “Interface Paradigms”, etc.

• Brands/businesses will REALLY have to have a conversation with their user/customers

Select Opportunities along the stack

• Disrupting existing B2C businesses with Conversational interfaces: Shopping, Booking, etc.

• Specialised and universally available AI modules: Scheduling, Translation, Booking, Semantic Analysis, NLP

• Organising Microwork: Recruiting, Managing, etc

• New funnels, new metrics, new advertising: New SaaS opportunities

• Messaging platform play (unlikely)

https://www.theinformation.com/the-end-of-tech-startups

http://blogs.reuters.com/david-cay-johnston/2011/10/25/beyond-the-1-percent/

http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/425818/kurzweil-responds-dont-underestimate-the-singularity/

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/jan/25/global-economy-globalrecession

https://aeon.co/essays/has-progress-in-science-and-technology-come-to-a-halt

http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2015/01/27/how-ubers-autonomous-cars-will-destroy-10-million-jobs-and-reshape-the-economy-by-2025-lyft-google-zack-kanter/

http://fusion.net/story/173244/there-are-probably-way-more-people-in-the-gig-economy-than-we-realize/

https://www.theinformation.com/on-bots-conversational-apps-and-fin

https://www.producthunt.com/@chrismessina/collections/convcomm

https://medium.com/chris-messina/2016-will-be-the-year-of-conversational-commerce-1586e85e3991#.eistwydbg

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-messaging-app-report-2015-11

http://www.wired.com/2013/03/conversational-user-interface/

https://www.messenger.com/business?ref=producthunt&_rdr

http://www.theverge.com/2016/1/6/10718282/internet-bots-messaging-slack-facebook-m

http://a16z.com/2015/08/06/wechat-china-mobile-first/

felix@faber.vc@fiahless