Majority World Report 2016Post-Brexit & Trump

@cape @localglobevc

We’ve never been more networked

But these same networks often only amplify our differences

Driving political nationalism that sells independence based on division

We have real visibility on amazing innovations in energy & transportation

We are experiencing significant breakthroughs in machine learning and artificial intelligence

We are ushering in a new age of human and machines

But the majority world is still earning less than before, while needing to spend more to stand still

Meanwhile the 1% minority has only become richer

People feel strongly about income inequality

Technology companies have changed the face of global capitalism in the last 15 years

Extraordinary value has been created at an extraordinary pace

Many of these emerging giants are now also being grown outside of Silicon Valley

Source: https://techcrunch.com/2014/10/28/the-us-breeds-the-most-unicorns-but-the-rest-of-the-world-is-catching-up/

The Internet is now a fundamental part of Global GDP

$40TN of value is still locked up within the Fortune 2000

Source: Fortune 2000 (2015) & Gartner Estimated IT spend %

$30TN of which will be reallocated in next 10 years

Media Entertainment Retail

$3TN already disrupted by current tech wave

Transport Property Food

Now tech is advancing into more and more sectors

Energy

Fortune 2000 invests $2TN a year on tech - to what end?

Source: Fortune 2000 (2015) & Gartner Estimated IT spend %

Which part of this $40TN market will be able to fully embrace technology to innovate and grow?

Fortune 500 disruption matters economically as there’s increasingly less of a public sector safety net

Changes in UK Parliamentary Spend (www.parliament.uk)

We will feel even more political impact as millennial unemployment remains high in many major EU economies

Source: Statista, https://www.statista.com/chart/3644/youth-unemployment-still-unrelenting-in-europe/

Lack of economic opportunities and austerity causing protests and unrest

So while luxuries may feel closer to hand, the jobs and housing which stimulate well-being don’t

This fear is most acute for millennials and parents

Unicorn FTEs Zebras

160,000+ drivers

5,000+ Roos

640,000+ hosts

6,700

2,400

800

Meanwhile a new breed of tech businesses are starting to flip the idea of income and employment on its head

46,000 8,500,000+ sellers

There will be many other new labour marketplace entrants

Source: http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/media/blog/the-gig-economy-revolutionising-the-world-of-work-or-the-latest-storm-in-a-teacup/

Amplifying an already established trend of self-employment and freelancing marketplaces

There are now over 120m Zebras on Facebook “interested in entrepreneurship”

● Independence● Control● Flexibility

These Zebras are using new realities of self-employment to build an income and their own businesses

Entrepreneurs are already over 5% of world’s population

This isn’t a Silicon Valley thing, it’s a global phenomenon

How do you create an industrial strategy for the many not just for the few?

It’s not just about jobs - the UK is in a relatively good place for unemployment

It’s not just about immigration - nearly 9m migrants already part of the UK labour market

In fact, the UK is only G8 economy with an established entrepreneur’s visa program

It’s partly about how governments adapt to a backdrop of profound change and widespread new technology realities?* (list from 2011)

1. Global Internet, Local Services

2. Broadband Everywhere

3. Mobile Devices

4. Cloud Computing

5. E-Commerce

6. Social Graph

7. Consumerization of IT

8. Incredibly low cost of Start Ups

Tech realities which by 2016 have only accelerated and further evolved even as they repeat themselves...

1. Marketplaces & SaaS (again!)2. Messaging & Bots (again!)3. AI (again!)4. Security & Privacy (again!)5. Sharing & On-demand Economy6. Digital Transformation7. Zebras & NOMAD stack8. Automation - Drones, Cars & Robots9. Blockchain & Microservices

The FTSE 100 have a market capitalization in excess of $2.7 Trillion, employ over 5,580,000 people and spend well over $60bn a year on IT

Source: Public company data, Gartner % IT Spend by Industry (2012) 40

FTSE 100 could see as much as $2TN of value displacement - with a real impact on employment

Population: 240,595

Source: Camden Profile (2015), London Borough Profiles 2016, Camden Equality Taskforce Evidence Base(*) Poverty defined as 60% of national median income – currently equivalent to about £16,500.

Local economies will have to innovate or suffer as well

London’s 3rd largest economy (1.6% of UK GDP - larger than Estonia)

Home to 24,400 businesses including:

But 15-20% households still under poverty line*

So now’s the time to choose something important and double down on Maslow’s web

Communications

Fashion

Discretionary Non-Discretionary

Media

Entertainment

Shopping

Travel

Energy

Housing

Education

Food

Finance

Health

Transport

Security

1993-2003 2004-2012 2012+

But entrepreneurs aren’t afraid of the dark, so pick a big problem to solve

We are all living with new uncertainties

@cape♯majorityworld