Future Thinking of Cloud and Connectivity - Commsday 2016

SUPERLOOP LIMITED 1© Superloop - April 2016

Commsday Summit 2016 PresentationFuture Thinking

BY 2020 TRADITIONAL COLOCATION WILL DECLINE

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BY 2020 TRADITIONAL COLOCATION WILL DECLINE

Growth in cloud compute and cloud apps (Google Apps, O365 etc.)Cloud Providers using “build-v-buy” to drive data centre pricing lower.

Already seeing major DC providers $/MW declineFirst wave of significant pricing disruption to be felt as first major

wave of Cloud Compute cores to be decommissionedOlder specialised corporate “whitespace” DC’s will probably close

downConsolidation of DC providers to those with the cheapest cost of

capitalBest ecosystems last/least affected

By 2022 CROSS CONNECT REVENUE WILL LIKELY PEAK

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BY 2022 CROSS CONNECT REVENUE WILL LIKELY PEAK

Elastic Interconnection to become the norm

Disintermediation of connection to a network/service at a facility to connecting to it on a fabric

Merchant Silicon/SDN is already starting to disrupt in terms of capex, cost, functionally, but also footprint/opex, but hit supernova in 2018/2019

40G/100G optic pricing will become commodity

Largest Ecosystem “wins” - independence is key

AUSTRALIA WILL BECOME THE MOST EXPENSIVE BROADBAND IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD

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AUSTRALIA WILL BECOME THE MOST EXPENSIVE BROADBAND IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD

CVC Charge/Congestion Tax - Galactically stupid pricing121 PoI TaxNBN Monopoly - no natural competitor/no price tensionNBN Monopoly further enshrined as Government looks to “sell” and

maximise return through protection guarantees (Telstra float anyone?)

Cost of international capacity will remain cheaper than cost of CVC costs

Compounded as ULL/SS/xDSL services get turned over - TPG greatest affected

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CHECK OUT TPG ARPU’s

‘GOLDEN ERA’ FOR LAST MILE OWNERS

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‘GOLDEN ERA’ FOR MAJOR LAST MILE OWNERS

All this growth in cloud services require connectivity to premisesTrue convergence of communication using cloud apps will require

significant capacity and seamless connectivity in the workplaceOperators with critical mass and coverage will continue to grow and

increase coverage through incremental sales, scale and consolidation

Some potential attempts at disintermediation of the access layer from major cloud providers looking to reduce the cost/barrier to interconnect to their infrastructure

5G BECOMES A REAL ALTERNATIVE FOR TPG (AND VODA)






TELSTRA’S GRAPH

BACK OF THE NAPKIN


2.6PB WITH AN AVERAGE UTILISATION OF 75% =2,600,000GB (1Mbps = 10G/day)

260,000Mbps

260,000Mbps/0.75

Peak = 350Gbps

350Gbps>iiNet’s international traffic last year (pre-Netflix affect)


TELSTRA LEARNING FOR TPG AND VODA (AND NBN CO.)

4G network ran at 350Gbps nationally without problem

5G with increased spectral efficiency and the right spectrum should produce 500Gbps to 1Tbps+ of access

FttB locations doubling up a pico cell/wifi hand-off sites could possibly handle 2Tbps+ of access connectivity


WHAT DOES THIS TRANSLATE TO?2Tbps * $17.50 = $35m/month or $420M per annum in annual CVC savings

1Tbps = 1,000,000 users download 1Mbps concurrently or 300G per month

2Tbps = 2,000,000 users on a 500GB plan with an average 60% utilisation

2Tbps = 10,000,000 users on a 100GB plan with an average utilisation of 60%

10,000,000 users @ $40/month = $4B in revenue

Vodafone today has around 5m subs with average $70 ARPU for $3.5B in revenue. Just saying...


QUESTIONS?

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Future Thinking of Cloud and Connectivity - Commsday 2016