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www.horizonscanning.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk
Horizon 2035: Developing a long-term strategic vision for the health, social care and public health workforce in England
Matt Edwards, Tom Lyscom, John Fellows, Dr Graham Willis, Dr Siôn Cave Centre for Workforce Intelligence, [email protected]
www.cfwi.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk
www.horizonscanning.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk
Rethinking health and care workforce planning
Let’s begin with four embarrassing admissions.
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Admissions
Focusing on just numbers doesn't work.Our system doesn't know what skills and competences are needed in future.Our system doesn't know who is best to provide them.What they cost or if we can afford them.
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A new challenge: Horizon 2035
What skills and competences do we have?
What might we need in future?
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Our approach to strategic planning
Understand the system
Explore the future
Simulate the possibilities
Make robust responses
Focal question
Transparent and participatory
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Consider the whole system
Health
Public health
Social care
Headcount of over 11m
5%
Other health and support
11%
Paid adult care and support
27%
Volunteer adult care and support
50%
Unpaid adult care and support
7%
Dentists, Doctors, Midwives, Nurses, Pharmacists
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Skills and competences
Competences
Skills
FacilitationLeadershipWellbeing
Knowledge Personal
Types of skill
Level of skillLow to High
Workforce activity
Workforce attributes
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What drives the demand for skills?
Demand for skills
Long-termconditions
Infectiousdiseases
Births
Public health /
prevention
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What drives the supply of skills?
Supply of skills
Skill mix
Education &training
Workforcesupply
Capacityto learn
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Scenarios – Horizon 2035
Published March 2015http://www.horizonscanning.org.uk/our-research/horizon-2035/scenarios/
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A new framework
Po
pu
lati
on
Learning disabilities
Oral health
Singular demand for service
Maternal and perinatal
Infectious disease
Mental Health LTCs
Physical LTCs
Skill level: 1 2 3 4 5 6
Increasing concentration and experience
Prevent
Enable
Assess
Plan
Treat
Rehabilitate
Relieve
Link
Unpaid adult social care workforce
Nurses
Dentists
Medical generalists
Medical specialists
Volunteer care and support workforce
Other workforce groups x10
Horizon 2035 workforce groups
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Framework + system = insights
NumbersSkillsCosts
Supply Demand
People and skills?
Workforce groups?
Training?
Education?
Money?
Future challenges?
Skills gap and
overlaps?
Ideal skill mix?
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Model structure
SUPPLY COMPONENT
DEMAND COMPONENT
Demand sector
Wellness sector
Population sector
Skill allocation sector
Workforce capability sector
Workforce size sector
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Future demand for skillsSk
ill h
ou
rs/Y
ear
(B
illio
ns)
2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036
Time (Year)
Probability: 80% 100%Central estimate:
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Components of change: business as usual
Pop
ula
tio
n
Wel
lnes
s
Serv
ice
Pro
du
ctiv
ity 2013
2035
(median projections)
By scenario
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Big questions
Will the cost of meeting future health and care needs be affordable?Will this be value for money?What is the best mix of people, numbers and skills?
www.horizonscanning.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk
Horizon 2035: Developing a long-term strategic vision for the health, social care and public health workforce in England
Matt Edwards, Tom Lyscom, John Fellows, Dr Graham Willis, Dr Siôn Cave Centre for Workforce Intelligence, [email protected]
www.cfwi.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk