The Global Healthcare and Pharmaceutical Industry in 2012 - Ten Predictions for the Year Ahead

Global Healthcare and Pharmaceutical Industry:

Our Top Ten Predictions for 2012

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Speaker:Gustav AndoDirectorHealthcare and PharmaIHS

I Global Healthcare and Pharma in 2012: Our Top Ten Predictions for the Year Ahead I Copyright © 2011 IHS2

1. Europe Will See Cuts in Public Health Spending and Low Total Health Spending Growth

Europe in 2012 will be characterized by cuts in public health spending and low total health spending growth, amid a significant risk of recession

Price cuts in Southern Europe are being matched by stringent containment in developed markets like the UK, Germany, France and the Nordics


Despite slow economic recovery, US health spending growth will remain steady, driven primarily by price increases and demographic-related volume expansion

The pace will be tempered by reform-induced risks and healthcare expenditure cuts, as well as uncertainty surrounding the election

Focus in 2012 will be on implementation of health delivery systems such as an Accountable Care Organisation

Healthcare insurance is not expected to have meaningful expansion until beyond 2012

2. US Health Spending Growth Will Remain Steady But Not Without Risks


3. Emerging Markets and Generics Will Still Be the Primary Drivers of Growth in Global Health Spending

Emerging markets will lead global health spending growth, due largely to healthcare reform and strong economy

Generics sales will continue to achieve strong growth, driven by patent expiry on brand-name drugs, and cost-containment measures in the developed markets


Several important new therapies approved in 2010 and 2011 will likely see significant uptake in 2012, as they make their way towards becoming best-selling drugs

The blood-clotting market will see significant health spend expansion due to Eliquis, Xarelto and Pradaxa

Xgeva/Prolia will continue to drive growth in osteoporosis and skeletal disease

Prostate cancer and melanoma markets will see major uptake of new therapies

4. Several Potential Game-Changers Will Make Their Mark


Entry of generics in the cardiovascular area for Lipitor and Plavix signals the final death knell of the old mass marketed retail pharma era

5. Generic Lipitor and Plavix Signal the Formal End of an Era

It is now time for biologics such as the TNF-alpha inhibitors to finally assume their position as global market-leading products

Singulair – another major blockbuster – goes off-patent in August 2012


6. China Will Continue its Double-Digit Growth in Total Health Spending

China buoyed by massive healthcare expansion and a strong economy

Double-digit growth in total health spending continues, offering potentially substantial rewards for foreign investments in the country—despite operational challenges

We expect China to surpass Germany by 2013, and Japan by 2014, to become the second largest healthcare market in the world


7. India Will Return to Double-Digit Growth in Health Spending Beyond 2012

Several factors will hurt India’s health spending in 2012

However a strong economy, massive healthcare expansion and the increasing size of the middle income population will ensure double-digit growth in health spending over the long haul


8. Healthcare Reform on the Agenda in Eastern Europe

Driven by events in the growing Polish market, where a new act will bring a new era to Poland’s pharmaceutical industry

A mixture of positive and negative drivers, with enhanced access to new drugs, particularly biologics, offset by the significant new HTA requirements, including potential risk-sharing agreements


9. Price Cuts on the Way in Japan

Japan to undergo its biennial price cuts in April 2012, again putting significant top-line risk to pharmaceutical companies

The government has placed significant emphasis on cutting the prices of particularly innovative products — such as Remicade — in recent years


10. International Reference Pricing Will Continue to Distort Market Access Strategies

Ongoing austerity measures have seen the significant expansion of international reference pricing

Led by Greece, which has changed its basket of countries to include markets with very different socioeconomic indicators

This will continue to impact launch strategies and narrow the price corridor across EMEA market in particular


Download Our Free Report!

Healthcare Forecasts Amidst Global Economic Turmoil:Recession–Proof or Leaking Roof?

This report examines the impact of current global economic climate on Global health expenditure and pharmaceutical sales, and forecasts growth in healthcare spending in 2012.


• Health expenditure in developed Vs emerging markets

• Planned US medicare payment cuts

• Price cuts and generics in Germany

• UK public health expenditure

• Italy's austerity measures

• Spain's deficit reduction and cost-containment

• China's healthcare reform

• India's health-insurance and price controls

• Brazil's domestic drug production & drug prices

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The Global Healthcare and Pharmaceutical Industry in 2012 - Ten Predictions for the Year Ahead