SURGERY

What’s the risk?

AAADon’t operate unless > 55 mm

UK Small Aneurysm Trial (1993): 46 mm

UK Small Aneurysm Trial (1993): 46 mm

UK Small Aneurysm Trial (1993): 46 mm

UK Small Aneurysm Trial (1993): 46 mm

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

AAAOperate if > 46 mm?

UK Small Aneurysm Trial (1993): 46 mminitial monthly mortality 0.40%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

UK Small Aneurysm Trial (2016): 46 mminitial monthly mortality 0.20%

UK Small Aneurysm Trial (2016): 46 mminitial monthly mortality 0.20%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

AAAOperate if > 41 mm?

AAA size, mortality hazard & survival

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

0.01

0.1

1

Aneurysm diameter (mm)

Mon

thly

mor

talit

y ha

zard

(%)

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

0.01

0.1

1

Aneurysm diameter (mm)

Mon

thly

mor

talit

y ha

zard

(%)

AAA size, mortality hazard & survival

AAA size, mortality hazard & survival

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

0.01

0.1

1

Aneurysm diameter (mm)

Mon

thly

mor

talit

y ha

zard

(%)

AAAOperate if > your MLE threshold?

SURGERY

What’s the risk?