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Artwork by El Lissitzky. Beat the Whites with the Red Wedge, 1919
Presented by Selim Erbagci, Smriti Sharma, and Tom Nicholson
October 31, 2012
Framework/Theory Elements Implication for Policy Analysis
Interest Group Theory
Concentrated interests advantaged over diffused interests; organized interests advantaged over unorganized interests
Mobilize or create organizations to represent diffuse interests; anticipate possible post-adoption mobilization of diffused interests
Institutional rational choice
Institutions shape the circumstancesof choice facing individuals pursuing their own interests
Understand the institutions that make and implement policies; look for changes in institutions to change policy outcomes
Framework/Theory Elements Implication for Policy Analysis
Path (state) dependence
Accumulated policies create externalities that affect the viability of policy alternatives in the future
Recognize that quick fixes or failed proposals may limit future options; anticipate the creation of policy constituencies
Advocacy coalition framework
Relatively stable networks of actors sharing core and policy beliefs oppose each other to make major change difficult in policy subsystems
Produce evidence to change policy beliefs; take advantage of external shocks to coalitions; seek negotiation to end hurting stalemates
Framework/Theory Elements Implication for Policy Analysis
Social construction framework
Both political power and the social construction of targeted groups as deserving or undeserving affect the distribution of benefits and burdens
Frame policies to take advantage of favorable social constructions; look for ways to change social constructions
Multiple streams framework
Political, policy, and problem streams join at critical times to create opportunities, or policy windows, for major policy change
Prepare for policy windows by having well-analyzed alternatives on hand; look for ways to help open policy windows
Framework/Theory Elements Implication for Policy Analysis
Punctuatedequilibrium
Limitations in information processing hinder proportionate responses so that policy tends to be stable except during major catch-ups
Anticipate stability occasionally punctuated by major policy changes
Reuters video link : here
Photo: Maurice Michael/Flickr
Photo by Reuters
3Background: Cigarette smoking in the Russian Federation
• Life expectancy 62 years for men, 74 for women
• Deaths per year due to smoking-related causes: 440,000
• 44 million citizens addicted, 40% Russians smoke regularly
• “Every year equivalent of a large city disappears” – Dmitry Medvedev
• 97th place out of 145 in WHO/World Bank index compiled by Bloomberg and Kommersant (August 2012), largely due to alcohol and cigarettes.
• Birth rate not at pace with death rate
Photo by Reuters Source: President Medvedev's address
3Background: Proposals from President Medvede:v in response to cigarette smoking in Russia:
• Ban on smoking in public places
• Regulate tobacco advertising
• New taxes on price of cigarettes1. Excise duty of 40% by 2013 & 20142. Hike tax by 10% every year after 2015
Photo by Reuters
Russian demographic context:Precipitous decline and recent rebound
Source: Federal Governmental Statistics Service, Forbes Analysis , 7/06/2012
Cigarette Industry in the Russian FederationMarket Size - $22 billion
ImperialTobacco17%
BAT20%
PhillipMorris26%
JapanTobacco37%
Political Feasibility Cigarette Ban and Tax Package
Actors Beliefs Motivations Resources
1.Russian cigarette companies Sobranie (Russian) Against Profit, market access
Media access, threat of layoffs
2. Foreign Cigarette companies
Japan Tobacco International, Phillip Morris, British American Tobacco, and Imperial Tobacco Against Profit, market access Media access, embassies
3. Executive branch Putin, Medvedev ForHealth indicators, life expectancy
Powerful executive, obedient parliament
4. LegislatureUnited Russia, deputy Gerasimenko For
Health indicators, political considerations
Political cover from executive branch
5. Retail business owners cafes, restaurants, assns Against Profit, employmentthreat of layoffs, media access
6. Consumer rights groups
Consumers Union of Russia, official consumer watchdog Leaning For
Health indicators and consumer rights media access
7. Health authorities Minister of Health For Health indicators demographic evidence
8. Advertisers and clientsPCP (Russian AdvertisingCouncil) Against
Profit stream, representing members
lobbying power and media access
9. Finance ministry ForTax base, life expectancy, public health spending Cabinet level power
Potential vectors for engagement on issue of cigarette ban and increased taxation
• Executive Branch
• Legislature (Duma and Federal Assembly)
• Regional/Federalist approach
• Media campaign
• Pressure from business community
Choosing a sphere of engagement: the Russian smoking ban
Photo by Reuters
Photo:AP