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Forecasting:Managing the future with
dynamic patient flow models
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Patient flow dynamics help making the most of the product life cycle.
Business developmentEvaluate the potential
of a product in a market
Market AccessReinforce the health economics file with patients simulations.
Pre-marketingPlan commercial
resources based on potential sales.
LaunchEvaluate sales targets.
Manage stock planning.
GrowRe-evaluate the
strategy by understanding drivers
LOEIdentifying the drivers which will reinforce
carry-over.
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Support important decisions reg. business development:- Research;- Product acquisition;- Licensing,…
In today’s pharma business, forecasting has never been so critical.
Understand the strategic importance of the patient flow: - Diagnostic rate;- Compliance;- Treatment duration;- …
Understand new markets / new indications with less data.
Better target your resources & promotional investment:- FF size;- Investmentin awareness, compliance, …
Managing uncertainties in the future:- Outcomes of clinical studies;- Decisions on reimbursement;- Healthcare reform.
Forecasting brings more than financial forecasts. It generates critical strategic value as it provides answers to following needs:
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An essential tool in Market Access.
External Price Negotiations
Simulations of impact on public budget.
Business Development
Targets; Market dynamics; Impact actions
Internal Price Submission
Simulations of impact on sales
Dynamic Patient Flow Model
© 2016 IM Associates: Dynamic Patient Flow Model5
Patient-based forecasting as a complementary tool to in-house forecasting tools.
05/03/2023
In-house forecasting tool(Mostly based on high level market trends)
Dynamic patient flow model
t
Sales (€)
Based on assumptions of high level market trends (Total size of sub-markets; evolution of competition; market growth)
1° lineP.1
P.2
P.3
2° line
P.A
P.B
P.C
Based on numbers inherent to patient flow (incidence, prevalence, switch rate, compliance,…)
Offers grounded
assumptions
Cross-checks outcomes
Translates in # patients
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Patient Flow Empowered Forecasting
IM Associates’ approach to forecast is based on a tool simulating patient flows month-by-month. It is a fully transparent and flexible methodology generating real eye-openers on your sales dynamics. This time-saving solution helps getting internal alignment on forecasts and supporting decisions on commercial and market access strategies.
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What is patient flow dynamic?
Diagnosed patients
Flow dynamics provides a simple and flexible model to understand the patient journey and measures the number of patients:• at any moment of time• at any step of the flow
Popu-lation
Patients on product A
Patients on product B
New patients
Incidence rate
Diagnostic rate
New patient share
1.000 / month 80%
% Switch
% drop-out
% drop-out
% Switch
6 months
4 months
Patient flow (Simplified example)
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In a standard patient flow approach, we first calculate the number of patients on treatment. Then number of patients are converted into number of boxes and in sales.
Patients on product X
Volume forecast
Sales forecast
Patient share
Switch rate
Drop-out rate
Compliance
Posology (Units/month)
Price
Conversion
Patients on product
Population Potentialpatients
Patients on treatment
Population growth
Age / Gender
Prevalence
Incidence
Diagnostic rate
Treatment choice
Patients on treatment
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This approach enables analysing the consolidated impacts of price and volume on the final sales.
2016: steep growth of patient, which is not
sufficient to compensate the price decrease
2017 and beyond: Thanks to its price decrease, BrandX lowers the patient loss to
generics.
Business case
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Scenarios help evaluating the sales impact of decisions, and the time when the impact occurs.
Patients versus base case
2014 6.674 6.674 0 0%2015 6.834 6.834 0 0%2016 7.051 7.051 0 0%2017 6.894 6.664 -230 -3%2018 6.709 6.224 -485 -8%2019 6.558 5.865 -693 -12%
Sales versus base case
Fiscal Year Base case SalesDelta
vs. base case% vs.
base case2014 26.768.532 26.768.532 0 0%2015 27.097.257 27.097.257 0 0%2016 25.874.012 25.874.012 0 0%2017 24.762.869 25.646.640 883.771 3%2018 23.962.230 23.931.913 -30.317 0%2019 23.363.991 22.446.978 -917.014 -4%
2017 - 2019 72.089.091 72.025.531 -63.560 0%
No price decrease
2017: In the short term, the decision to maintain the price is beneficial (compared to scenario with price decrease).But the sales impact becomes negative in 2019, as the decrease in patients annihilates the extra sales due to higher price.
Business case
Base case scenario
No price decrease
Scenario 1
Price decrease
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IM Associates helps searching data to support the assumptions related to prevalence, incidence, diagnostic rate, switch & drop-out, etc…
Existing market research(Primary data)
Additional surveyDesk research(Secondary data)
We analyze your primary data to extract the relevant evidence.
Based on our knowledge, we search and analyze available data-sources, or provide recommendations in terms of 3rd party data.
When needed, we conduct additional survey through online questionnaires, telephone survey or advisory boards.
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IM Associates’ approach is transparent, flexible and powerful.
TransparentThe assumptions and their impact are easy to understand.Future sales are clearly split in existing/new/switched patients.
FlexibleParameters (launch data; treatment duration; compliance; switch rate;…) are modifiable and the impact on outcomes is immediately simulated.
PowerfulAble to model simple or complex patients flows.
Our approach Your benefits
You save time, as complex patient journey can be easily modeled.
You gain insight on the patient flow and the drivers influencing your sales (switch rate; compliance; duration of treatment;…).
You reach internal alignment on forecasts by discussing clearly defined parameters.
You manage future uncertainties by analyzing multiple scenarios and by refreshing the forecasting with the latest available data.
You get reliable forecast. This helps you setting the right marketing investment and SMART targets for your sales teams.
Jurgen De BaerdemaekerCEO
Mob.: + 32 477 70 94 41
IM Associates assures effective decisions are taken in the complex healthcare environment.
