Moving Targets: Irrigation management modernization in East Asia and the Pacific (EAP)

Jacob Burke (World Bank)+ Paulus van Hofwegen, Chris Perry,

Thierry Façon, David Dawe, Ian Makin

Overview

1. The Regional Study

2. How

3. Why

S f4. Some preliminary findings

Irrigation Management Modernization:A Regional Technical Assistance Studyg y

• Objective:To identify long term investment priorities for modernizing irrigation & drainage service delivery in the East Asia & Pacific irrigation & drainage service delivery in the East Asia & Pacific region (EAP)

• Method: A ti t f t i i ti & d i A comparative assessment of current irrigation & drainage service provision and a view to the future (‘future-watch’)

• Rationale:Modernization needs shared experience, best practices and lessons learnt but also needs appreciation of economic transitions

• Drivers– Economic transformation & off-farm opportunities,– urbanization & transitions in irrigated smallholder

agriculture, agriculture, – increased pressure on land and water resources &– amplified climatic risk.

How

• National studies & lessons learned• Simple analytical framework to allow comparison• A regional Synthesis Report • Participating Countries:

– China, Indonesia, Vietnam (WB funded National Studies)China, Indonesia, Vietnam (WB funded National Studies)– Australia, Japan, (evolution of modernization in OECD countries)– Thailand, Malaysia (FAO funded)

• Timetable﹣ Country assessments ongoing – presentation of drafts 12 March

Synthesis and Consultations; March May 2013﹣ Synthesis and Consultations; March-May 2013﹣ Output: Draft Synthesis Report and guidelines June 2013

Why a focus on modernization?

910

Annual average

7.0 to 9.0

• WBG I&D: 31% of IBRD & IDA agriculture lending –dominant but small

0.9678

llion

s

7.0

dominant but small

• Quality lending into existing asset management will count 1.8

3.41.2

2345

US$

bil 4.2

will count

1.22.7

1.8

012

2006-08 2010-12 2013-2015 P j t dProjected

IFCAgriculture production and marketsOther agriculture related investments

World agricultural land 1961 – 2007 (million ha)(2009 baseline: I&D accounts for 44% global production off 16% arable land)

1600Arable land and permanent crops

y = 4087 x + 1E+06R² = 0.9543

y = 292 x + 1E+06R² 0 0867

1200

1400Arable land and permanent crops

Rain‐fed land R² = 0.0867

800

1000

Rain fed  land

y = 3795 x + 127865R² = 0.998400

600

0

200

1960 196 19 0 19 1980 198 1990 199 2000 200 2010

Land equipped for irrigation

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Diets are diversifying:East Asia: Share of dietary energy supply 1960-2007East Asia: Share of dietary energy supply 1960 2007

Cropping patterns also changing in some countries:China harvested areas 1976-2011

But not in others:Malaysia harvested areas 1976 – 2011Malaysia harvested areas 1976 2011

The background to modernization in EAP

• Total arable land ~250 million ha. Equipped area~90 million ha.

• Deltas under pressure & groundwater will need to be factored in.

• Some limited room for further expansion, but where and how? Indeveloped basins intensification will need higher waterproductivity

• Farm incomes falling – widening rural-urban income gap.

• Irrigation management lagging – modernization of institutions asa much an issue as modernization of irrigation schemesa much an issue as modernization of irrigation schemes.

• High opportunity cost of rehabilitation and re-engineering to getdesired levels of flexibility.

• Irrigation assets at risk. How resilient is the infrastructure... andhow resilient the institutions?

l / l l h• Basin planning/negotiation processes now more pluralistic than‘integrated’ but general disconnect between water resourcemanagement and agriculture sector.

Preliminary Findings

• Past may be no guide to the future – but historical evolutioninstructive.

• By the time the style and level of service is organized, the clientmight have moved on (Malaysia)

• Irrigation systems much more ‘open’ than ever before but thesub-sector needs to make a better case for its allocation, useand quality of return flows (China and the ‘redlines’)

Short to medium term analysisShort to medium term analysis

• Service oriented management will need more participationskills & information push (Thailand)

• Be selective – a modernization index (Indonesia)

• Professionalization a priority (Malaysia)

• I&D services can be linked to improved ET managementI&D services can be linked to improved ET management(China)

• Revenue sources are changing (China)g g ( )

Long term analysis – ‘future-watch’

The basic FAO AT2030/50 projections for EAP

• Production of irrigated food staples will continue to dominate butg pannual growth rates will slow ~0.5% by 2050.

• Equipped areas projected to expand only by 6 million ha. Yieldswill have to increase by 85% and cropping intensities by 15% towill have to increase by 85% and cropping intensities by 15% tosatisfy the supply-utilization accounts.

Th i iThe uncertainties

• Calorie saturation by 2050? Will regional market connectionscontinue to spread production risk?

• Hydrological and climate futures tricky – GCMs not happy withmoisture.

• Baseline is patchy – where are the smallholder irrigators, what aretheir incomes and their exit strategies?

The ‘positives’The positives

• Maintaining farm incomes will drive land consolidation

• Intensification and transition to precision agriculture inevitable –where labour substitution/mechanization is possible

• Capacity to operate modernized irrigation and drainage serviceswill need training to start now

At b i l l if t ‘i t ti ’ th ff ti i tit ti l• At basin level, if not ‘integration’ then more effective institutionalcollaboration to spread risk. Farmer interests can be linked tobasin planning and operation.

• At scheme level, costs of reviewing basic competencies andprofessionalism in delivering services are small (RAP/MASSCOTE)

Flexible hardware = flexible institutions?

Inflatable weir Bang Pakong basin ThailandInflatable weir. Bang Pakong basin, Thailand

Thank oThank you

A collaboration in EAP