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D-Dimer levels over time and the risk of
recurrent venous thromboembolism:
An update of the Vienna Prediction Model
Sabine Eichinger, Georg Heinze, Paul A. KyrleDept. of Medicine I & Center for Medical Statistics
Medical University of Vienna, Austria
Background I
• Patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE)
are at increased risk of recurrence.
Kyrle, Lancet 2010
Recurrence risk after unprovoked VTE
Background II
• Patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE)
are at increased risk of recurrence.
• By use of the „Vienna Prediction Model“ patients with
unprovoked VTE can be further stratified according to their
recurrence risk.
Points 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Sexfemale
male
Locationdistal DVT pulmonary embolism
proximal DVT
DDimer (µg/l)100 150 200 250 400 500 750 1000 1500 2000
Total Points 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
12 months cumulative recurrence rate0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.15
60 months cumulative recurrence rate0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Nomogram to predict recurrence60 9040
190
24%Eichinger, Circulation 2010
Study aim
• To expand the “Vienna Prediction Model” in
order to assess the recurrence risk also
from later time points on
Inclusion
• > 18 yrs
• First VTE
• OAC > 3 mo
• Objective Dx of VTE
Exclusion
• VTE provoked by
surgery, trauma,
pregnancy, female
hormone use
• AT-, PC-, PS-deficiency
• Lupus anticoagulant
• Cancer
• Antithrombotics
Patients
D-Dimer measurements and follow-up
OACstop
3 15months
9 24
D-Dimer
3 wbaseline
• Preselected variables: sex, location of VTE, D-Dimer
• Competing risk regression model to predict cumulative incidence
of recurrence using all variables
• Estimated a series of models to predict cumulative recurrence from
various time points after baseline
• Each model uses most recent D-Dimer values
“Dynamic Vienna Prediction Model”
Statistical analysis
Patient characteristics (n = 553)
Age (yrs); median (25th, 75th P) 53 (43, 62)
Women; n 219 (40%)
Location of first VTE; n
PE + proximal DVT distal DVT
464 (84%)
89 (16%)
BMI (kg/m2); median (25th, 75th P) 27.2 (24.4, 30.0)
F V Leiden; n 126 (23%)
F II G20210A; n 27 (5%)
Duration of anticoagulation (mo); median (25th, 75th P)
6.7 (6.2, 8.5)
Observation time (mo), median (25th, 75th P) 68 (46, 98)
Time Patients, n D-Dimer (µg/L)median (25th, 75th percentile)
Baseline 553 338 (226, 551)
3 months 534 339 (227, 551)
9 months 494 356 (239, 557)
15 months
457 363 (237, 572)
24 months
415 375 (245, 610)
D-dimer levels over time after anticoagulation
Subdistribution hazard ratios (SHR) for recurrent VTE
Variable Time point SHR (95% CI)
Male vs. female sex Baseline 2.4 (1.6, 3.8)
3 months 2.3 (1.5, 3.5)
9 months 2.0 (1.3, 3.0)
15 months 1.7 (1.1, 2.7)
Proximal DVT or PE
vs. distal DVT
Baseline 1.8 (1.0, 3.4)
3 months 1.7 (0.9, 3.1)
9 months 1.5 (0.8, 2.8)
15 months 1.4 (0.8, 2.7)
D-Dimer (per doubling) Baseline 1.3 (1.1, 1.6)
3 months 1.3 (1.1, 1.5)
9 months 1.2 (1.0, 1.4)
15 months 1.1 (0.9, 1.4)
Nomogram to predict recurrence from
3 months0 27 50
14%
Nomogram to predict recurrence from
9 months
Cross-validation
Summary
• In patients with a first unprovoked VTE D-Dimer levels do not
substantially change over time after anticoagulation.
• The effect of risk factors on the recurrence risk may change over
time (e.g., effect of male sex and location of first VTE weakened).
• By integrating patient’s sex, location of VTE and serial D-Dimer
measurements the recurrence risk after anticoagulation can be
assessed not only after 3 weeks but also from later time points on.
Conclusion
• The “ Dynamic Vienna Prediction Model” allows predicting the
recurrence risk from various later time points after VTE which
provides greater flexibility in counseling patients regarding their
individual recurrence risk and optimal anticoagulation.