1. PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED)

2. What PED is sayingbut are we listening?PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED)Dale PolsonPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 3. Acknowledgements Tari Moody, USDA Julie Wallin, USDA Sarah Tomlinson, USDA Zack Whedbee, UC-Davis Beatriz Martinez, UC-Davis Kate Mueller, ISU-VDL Bret Crim, ISU-VDL Rodger Main, ISU-VDL Andres Perez, UMN-CVMPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 4. PED Speaks:What PED is saying Cost of PED to the US Industry PED News & Database PED Epidemic: NAHLN CaseDatabut are we listening? What Listeners doPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 5. PED Speaks:What PED is saying Cost of PED to the USIndustry PED News & Database PED Epidemic: NAHLN CaseDatabut are we listening? What Listeners doPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 6. PED Speaks:PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 7. PED Speaks:PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 8. Initial crude loss projections(from Fall 2013)PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 9. The model A production and economic modelwas developed to estimate the impactof the PED trans-boundary diseaseepidemic on the US Swine Industry Inputs for the model were obtained bythe BI Swine Team working with theirProducers and Veterinarians. Number of sows affected by an outbreakPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED)(monthly) Duration and percent mortality of anoutbreak 10. The modelPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 11. The modelPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 12. Loss estimates(through July 2014)PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 13. Estimated piglet losses:% of Weaned Pigs/YearEstimated sows affected:% of Total InventoryPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 14. Prevalence estimates(through July 2014)PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 15. Piglet loss estimates(through July 2014)PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 16. PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 17. PED Speaks:What PED is saying Cost of PED to the US Industry PED News & Database PED Epidemic: NAHLN CaseDatabut are we listening? What Listeners doPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 18. PED NewsPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 19. PED NewsPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 20. PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 21. PED NewsPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 22. PED NewsPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 23. PED NewsPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 24. PED Speaks:What PED is saying Cost of PED to the US Industry PED News & Database PED Epidemic: NAHLNCase Databut are we listening? What Listeners doPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 25. Using the DiseaseBioPortal for trackingPED & PDCoV in theUnited StatesPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 26. BioPortal: NAHLN PED/PDCo DatabasePORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 27. BioPortal: All PEDV/PDCoV CasesPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 28. BioPortal: All PEDV/PDCoV CasesPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 29. BioPortal: All PEDV/PDCoV CasesPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 30. PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 31. BioPortal: All PEDV/PDCoV CasesPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 32. PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 33. BioPortal: All PEDV/PDCoV CasesPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 34. PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 35. BioPortal: All PEDV/PDCoV CasesPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 36. BioPortal: All PEDV/PDCoV CasesPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 37. BioPortal: All PEDV/PDCoV CasesPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 38. BioPortal: All PEDV/PDCoV CasesPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 39. Number of positive casesPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 40. Number of positive cases: IOWAPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 41. Number of positive cases: MINNESOTAPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 42. Number of positive cases: ILLINOISPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 43. Number of positive cases: NORTH CAROLINAPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 44. Number of positive cases: OKLAHOMAPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 45. PED Speaks:What PED is saying Cost of PED to the US Industry PED News & Database PED Epidemic: NAHLN CaseDatabut are we listening? What Listeners doPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 46. We can ignorereality, but wecannot ignore theconsequences ofignoring reality.Ayn RandPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 47. PED Speaks:What PED is sayingSure, we (PEDV 1-2-3 &PDCOV) cost you a boat-load ofmoney, but were not theproblem here...but are we listening?were just helping youuncover your real problems(so you should thank us).PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 48. Are we listening?However secure and well-regulated civilizedlife may become, bacteria, Protozoa, viruses,infected fleas, lice, ticks, mosquitoes, andbedbugs will always lurk in the shadows readyto pounce when neglect, poverty, famine, or warlets down the defenses. And even in normal timesthey prey on the weak, the very young and thevery old, living along with us, in mysteriousobscurity waiting for opportunities.Dr. Hans Zinsser,(in Rats, Lice and History, 1934)PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 49. Are we listening?In todays world of rapid travel and transport,re-introduction of infectious diseases occursnot only locally: humans, insects, livestock andfood products carry infectious agents fromcountry to country and from continent tocontinent. Infectious agents carried by humansare often asymptomatic or in the incubationperiod, while those carried by vectors,livestock and food often remain silent. DavidL. Heymann,(Bulletin of the WHO, 84:2, February 2006)PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 50. Are we listening?PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 51. What makes a problem wicked?During the industrial age, the ideaof planning, in common with theidea of professionalism, wasdominated by the pervasive ideaof efficiency.Planning was then seen as aprocess of designing problem-solutionsthat might be installedPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED)and operated cheaply.Rittel & Webber (1973) 52. What makes a problem wicked?We are now sensitized to the waves ofrepercussions generated by aproblem-solving action directed to anyone node in the network, and we areno longer surprised to find it inducingproblems of greater severity at someother node.And so we have been forced to expandthe boundaries of the systems we dealwith, trying to internalize thoseexternalities. PORCINE Rittel EPIDEMIC & Webber DIARRHEA (1973)(PED) 53. PED Speaks:What PED is saying Cost of PED to the US Industry PED News & Database PED Epidemic: NAHLN CaseDatabut are we listening? What Listeners doPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 54. What listeners do:Listeners dont reactheroically to surprises,they preparecontingencies toexecute when theyneed to respond.PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 55. Listeners dont heroicaly react,they prepare to respondPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 56. Listeners dont heroicaly react,they prepare to respondPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 57. PEDV/PDCOV ProjectCollaborationPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 58. PEDV/PDCOV ProjectCollaborationPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 59. PEDV/PDCOV ProjectCollaborationPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 60. PEDV/PDCOV ProjectCollaborationPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 61. PEDV/PDCOV ProjectCollaborationPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 62. What listeners do:Listenersdont wait torespondPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 63. Listeners dont waitto respondPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 64. Listeners dont waitto respondPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 65. Listeners dont waitto respondPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 66. Listeners dont waitto respondPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 67. Listeners dont waitto respondPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 68. Listeners dont waitto respondPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 69. What listeners do:Listeners have a wellthought out Plan BPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 70. PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED)The mostsuccessful peopleare those who aregood at Plan B.James A. YorkeProfessor ofMathematics & PhysicsSome self-examination should make itclear that we need a better Plan B. 71. What listeners do:Listeners dont ignorethe elephants in theroomPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 72. PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED)Vice AdmiralJames Bond StockdaleTheStockdaleParadox:Confront thebrutal facts,but nevergive up. 73. PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED)Vice AdmiralJames Bond StockdaleConfrontthe brutalfacts 74. What listeners do:Elephant Categories:[1] ExternalIntroduction risks[2] Internal CirculationrisksPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 75. What listeners do:Listeners dont keepmaking the samemistakes over andover and over and overand over and over andover and over and overand over andPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 76. Listeners never stop learning (including from their mistakes)PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 77. The Golden (PRRS) RuleDo TRANSMIT untoyour neighborA basic foundationas you would haveyour neighbordo TRANSMIT unto you.PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 78. Area-Regional Control &Elimination (ARC&E) isproducers & veterinariansworking together with theirneighbors and businesspartners so that together theyachieve greater sustainedimprovement in health andproductivity in theirneighborhood than any one canachieve on their own.PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 79. Area Coordinated Disease ControlWorking together.PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 80. The 5 CsComprehensive Communication Cooperation Coordination CollaborationPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 81. Area Coordinated Disease ControlPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 82. Area Coordinated Disease ControlPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 83. Area Coordinated Disease ControlPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 84. Area Coordinated Disease ControlPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED)We needmore projects (a LOT more)bigger projectsmore connected projectsbroader projects 85. Veterinarians Across U.S. Submitting Cases to their VDL Service ProvidersSubmitters indicate the inclusion of a submission (case) in a specific regional disease monitoring effort (project) on the diagnostic laboratory submission formVDL LIMS (e.g. ISU) VDL LIMS (e.g. UMN) VDL LIMS (e.g. SDSU)Secure Animal HealthDiagnostic Database(SAHDD)(Web-Based, Password Protected,Viewable, Sortable)Input Surveys View Data/ReportsPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED)PathogenSpecificDx Data Only(Pushed)Disease BioPortalReal-time disease analysis and mapping(Web-based & Password Protected)PermissionedBioPortal UsersCaseSubmissionRules-based decisions used to updateInitially = System AdministratorGoal = AutomationView onlyAll DxResultsRhapsodyInterpretedDiagnostic DataPADRAP DataDynamic Risk DataDatastreamsCaseSubmissionAll DxResultsCaseSubmissionAll DxResultsProductionchain data:- Gene CentersSow Farms- Growing pigsites/cohorts- Movements- HarvestInterpreted (Pushed)Diagnostic Data(Pushed)PADRAP(Web-based & Password Protected)PermissionedPADRAP UsersOperations Data:- Smartphone- Tablet- PC/Laptop 86. Area Coordinated Disease ControlIts easier to act our way into anew way of thinking, than to thinkour way into a new way of acting.Jerry SterninThe Power of Positive DeviancePORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 87. Tell me and I forget,teach me and I mayremember, involveme and I learn.Benjamin FranklinPORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 88. PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED) 89. PORCINE EPIDEMIC DIARRHEA (PED)