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Prof Colin Butler(Australian Research

Council Future Fellow)

Manson Lecture TheatreLondon School Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

, Friday, October 17, 2014

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“The expense may be considerable, but the cost of doing nothing is incalculable”

Health in the Greenhouse

Editorial (Lancet, 1989)

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Outline

“Primary”, “secondary” and “tertiary” effects

Attributiontype I and type II errors

Food price rise

Conflict

Acknowledgements

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“Tertiary”

“Primary”

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“Secondary”

Old location

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Typhoon Haiyan, Tacloban, The Philippines, Nov 2013Strongest recorded storm to make landfallDirect death toll: >5,000Displaced: >4 millionTotal Burden of Disease?Fraction attributable to climate change?

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Trenberth, 2011:

Climate change attribution - null hypothesis: no human role

“science community much too conservative .. too many authors make Type II errors” (accept the null hypothesis in error) – ie conclude any particular extreme event has no anthropogenic (human) component”

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“Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities”

WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–9 30. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142

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Oreskes & Conway (2013):

“Western scientists built an intellectual culture based on the premise that it was worse to fool oneself into believing in something that did not exist than not to believe in something that did. Scientists referred to these positions as “type I” and “type II” errors, and established protocols designed to avoid type I errors at almost all costs”.

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Type 1 error spectrum Type 2

conservative?

risky?

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Oreskes & Conway (2013):

“Western scientists built an intellectual culture based on the premise that it was worse to fool oneself into believing in something that did not exist than not to believe in something that did. Scientists referred to these positions as “type I” and “type II” errors, and established protocols designed to avoid type I errors at almost all costs”.

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Type 1 error spectrum Type 2

conservative?risky?precautionary? risky?

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Extreme weather events (Russia/Ukraine 2010; US drought/heat 2011-2012)

oil price, speculation, rice panic

FAO Food price index

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Russia/Ukraine heat/drought

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Russia/Ukraine heat/drought

US drought

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Russia/Ukraine heat/drought

US droughts

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1989: Lancet editorial: foreshadows conflict

2011: Jarvis et al: "Climate change, ill health, and conflict." BMJ 342: 777-778.

2014: Stern, N. “Climate change is here now and it could lead to global conflict.” The Guardian

Conflict and climate change

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Waterscarcity

Regions afflicted by problems due to environmental stresses: • population pressure • water shortage• climate change affecting crops • sea level rise • pre-existing hunger• armed conflict, current/recent

From UK Ministry of Defence

[May RM, 2007 Lowy Institute Lecture]

Climate Change: Multiplier of Conflicts and Regional Tensions

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Type 2 errors:

Conclude 100% random, zero anthropogenic contribution to:

heatwaves

heavy rain/floods

severe storms

Conclude 100% social, zero eco (environmental) causation

famine

migration

conflict15

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Heat waves, fewer cold waves, injuries, floods, bushfires

Infectious diseases, especially vector borne, allergies, air pollutants, infrastructure

secondary

primary

tertiary

Health effects of adverse global environmental change (including climatic)

famine, conflict, pop’n displacement, refugees, development failure

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Men

tal h

ealt

h

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Burden of Disease (proportion)

Year widely accepted

now 2050?

PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity)

SECONDARY (e.g. vector-borne diseases, air pollution, allergies)

TERTIARY: (a “systemic multiplier”) famine, conflict, large-

scale migration, economic collapse

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All contributors, CABI staff, Rachel Cutts, LSH&TM

Tony McMichael, Paul Epstein

Tony Capon, Andy Haines, Martin McKee

Susan Woldenberg Butler

Thank you

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