A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Black-White Mortality Disparities in the US,

1980-2010: The Role of Changing Patterns of Residential Segregation

Corey S. SparksP. Johnelle Sparks

The University of Texas at San Antonio

Introduction• Black-White disparities in mortality rates

persist• Most research focuses on individual level

factors – More recent work is multilevel

• Role of residential segregation on aggregate mortality rates still poorly understood

Segregation & Mortality Rates• Williams and Collins (2001) offer one of the first

conceptual pieces to link segregation to poor health.

• Segregation spatially and socially patterns:– Poverty– Economic and educational opportunities– Social order or disorder– Access to resources

• Segregation could lead to better health outcomes (political representation, social support, cohesion)

Research Questions• Does the effect of segregation produce the

same disparity in black and white mortality rates over time?

• Do counties with persistently high segregation show the same mortality disadvantage for both black and white mortality rates?

• Does segregation have any protective advantage on county-level mortality rates?– For black mortality specifically

Data• NCHS Compressed Mortality File

– 1980 to 2010– Age, sex and race (white & black) specific rates

for all US counties– Standardized to 2000 Standard US population– Rates stratified by race and sex for each county

by year– n = 2 sex * 2race * 3149 counties * 31 years =

390,476 observations – n = 307,132 nonzero rates

Data• Independent variable:

– Persistent segregation -> if D > .6 between 1980 and 2010

• Control variables– Sex– % of population age 25 + without a high

school education– Gini coefficient for income inequality

Methods• Hierarchical model with respect to time

and space– Model 1: Random intercepts for year and

county– Model 2: Model 1 + Random slope for

black*persistent segregation by year• Models compared using Likelihood Ratio

test

Results• Model results indicate

– Significant black & male disadvantage– Significant negative effect of black * persistent

segregation (black advantage in areas of persistent segregation)

– Significant variance component for black*persistent segregation slope

– Visualizations:

Results: Raw Means

Results: Linear Model Fit

Results: HLM Fit

Discussion• Persistent segregation may be protective for

black mortality rates, particularly over time• This advantage is not witnessed for white

mortality rates in areas with persistent segregation

• Future work will examine this association with alternative segregation change measures– Examining race specific models

Thank you