UNCLASSIFIED

Where the Hammer-Strokes Fall Hardest: Using Human Terrain to

Facilitate Anticipations of Violence in South Sudan

Phil Smith

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• Republic of South Sudan, the world’s newest country, suffers from historical catalysts of violence

– Tribal tensions, cattle raiding, political instability, rebellions, conflict with Sudan

• Between 2008 and 2012, at least 10,000 South Sudanese died in violent incidents; hundreds of thousands displaced

– Humanitarian demands stretch UN, NGO, and government of South Sudan (GoSS) resources

Introduction

Jane’s Intelligence Weekly – 14 March 2014; Copyright © IHS Global Limited, 2014

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Implications and Research Opportunities

• East African stability important to U.S. foreign policy– Peace fosters an environment suitable for sustainable development

• Emergence of free, openly available spatial datasets presents opportunity for focused analyses

– Human terrain datasets: demography, ethnicity, boundary, historical data

Research Question: to what extent can spatially-enabled human terrain datasets assist in anticipating locations of violence in South Sudan?

Hypothesis: spatially-enabled human terrain datasets can assist in anticipating where violence is most likely to occur

-provide warnings of humanitarian plight and instability

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Datasets• Violent incidents: Armed Conflict Location and

Event Dataset (ACLED)– Events categorized by actor and impact (injuries, deaths,

property destruction)– Thesis utilized eight years of violence data (2005-2011); time

period between end of Sudanese Civil War and South Sudan’s independence in July 2011. Data from July 2011 to July 2012 tested model.

• Population density: LandScan• Tribal borders: Columbia University GULF/2000

Project• Seasonal migration routes and grazing land• Roads• Demographics: focused on young males• Water resources: rivers, water holes, boreholes• Commerce: village and urban markets• Sudan-South Sudan international border

http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/images/maps/Sudan_Ethnic_Linguistic_lg.jpg Author: Dr. Michael Izady; host: GULF/2000 Project; Copyright © M. Izady 2007, 2011

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Dataset Limitations

• Only geospatially-referenced datasets used; eliminates potentially pertinent information (political treaties, seasonal variations, leadership intentions)

• Broadly described violent incidents (tied to larger area– county or state) unsuitable for identifying smaller-scale patterns

• Risk of incomplete, inaccurate, or biased datasets• Reporting inconsistencies (UN/NGO presence = more reporting)• Geographic dataset cutoffs: impact of surrounding countries• Impact of non-human terrain factors on human terrain data (military)

Bottom Line: thesis focused on qualitative assessments from quantitative data; research time, dataset availability/accuracy, and analytical judgments precluded statistical assessment. Hypothesis cannot be proven, but alternative hypotheses can be weakened

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Area Limitation Model Inputs

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Anticipatory Mapping/Area Limitation Model Inputs

Area Limitation Model Inputs

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Introduction

Area Limitation Model Results

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Conclusions

• Overlaid ACLED violence data from July 2011 to July 2012 to test model (data not included in area limitation model)

– Approximately 80-percent of violent incidents fell within 30-percent of South Sudan territory designated as extremely, moderately, or possibly likely to experience violence

– Approximately 40-percent of violent incidents within six-percent of South Sudan designated as extremely or moderately likely to experience violence

– Instances where model conflicted with data– highlights potentially missing or overlooked data/factors

• UN/NGO focus on humanitarian plight near Sudan-South Sudan border

• A model is exactly that– a simplified view of reality, limited by inputs and analytic methods

• Arms the international community and policymakers with an anticipatory tool to highlight locations at a potentially higher risk of violence

– Improve planning and understanding of violence and subsequent humanitarian impacts

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Sources

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Rolandsen Oystein H. and Ingrid Marie Breidlid. “A Critical Analysis of Cultural Explanations For the Violence in Jonglei State, South Sudan.” The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes. http://www.accord.org.za/images/downloads/ct/ACCORD_Conflict_Trends_2012_1.pdf (accessed 2 May 2013): 55.

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