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© 2015 TM Forum | 1 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum
What Makes Cities Smart?Collaboration, Digitisation and New Technologiesare the Cure for Many City DiseasesPeter Sany, President & CEO, TM ForumGlobal City Forum, Shanghai, Nov 1, 2016
© 2015 TM Forum | 2 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: United Nations
Two Generations of Population Growth Ahead
• The world population will grow by 2 billion people in the next 30 years
• Almost all of this growth is in Africa, India and Asia
Africa 108.9%
Oceania 43.9%
LatAm 23.6%
N. Am 21.6%
Asia 19.9%
Europe -4.3%
2015 - 2050 Population forecast 1950 – 2100 Population trends
WORLDASIAAFRICAEUROPELAT AM/CARIBBEANN. AMERICAOCEANIA
© 2015 TM Forum | 3 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: United Nations
Ageing Population Puts Pressure on Society
• Average life expectancy is rising dramatically• This puts pressure on healthcare, benefit
systems, and society at large
< 65
> 655%
Now
< 65
> 65
16%
2050
2100:69%
1960:40%
Africa
% of global population over 65 will more than double by 2050
Life expectancy trends 1950-2050
MORE DEVELOPED REGIONSLAT AM/CARIBBEANASIAWORLDAFRICA
© 2015 TM Forum | 4 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: World Bank: United Nations
Increase in Disposable Income Transforms Societies
• Net disposable income rises & extreme poverty falls• Most significant transformation in Africa• Greater wealth drives societal transformation
through, but also greater consumption and demand on resources
Net Disposable
Income
Extreme Poverty
Communication Energy,
Travel General
Consumption
Net Disposable Income Trend
AFRICAASIALAT AM/CARIBBEANEUROPEN. AMERICA
© 2015 TM Forum | 5 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: United Nations
Urbanization: Massive Population & Economic Growth in Cities
• Industrial Age – Industry 2.0• Globally still predominantly rural population
1950 30%70%
Urban vs Rural Population ChangeOverall Population Growth1950-2050: 2.4 Bn to 9.3 Bn ~
4x
Urban Population Growth1950-2050: 800 Mio to 6.2 Bn ~
8x
© 2015 TM Forum | 6 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: United Nations
2017
• Information Age & Industry 3.0, 4.0 emerging• Massive growth of urban population
Urban vs Rural Population Change
Urbanization: Massive Population & Economic Growth in Cities
45% 55%
Overall Population Growth1950-2050: 2.4 Bn to 9.3 Bn ~
4x
Urban Population Growth1950-2050: 800 Mio to 6.2 Bn ~
8x
2015: 20 Mio1950: 10 kShenzhen ~ 2’000x
© 2015 TM Forum | 7 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: United Nations
Urbanization: Massive Population & Economic Growth in Cities
205070%
30%
• Digital Age & Industry 4.0 in full swing• Massive growth of urban population
Urban vs Rural Population ChangeOverall Population Growth1950-2050: 2.4 Bn to 9.3 Bn ~
4x
Urban Population Growth1950-2050: 800 Mio to 6.2 Bn ~
8x
2015 Urban Population 2050India: + 404 MioChina: + 292 MioNigeria: + 212 Mio
© 2015 TM Forum | 8 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: Economist
Economic Power is Moving to Asia
• Asia is reclaiming its historic role as dominant economic region
• The power shift will lead to many unknown consequences
Asia % of global GDP continues to rise
Asia %of GDPin 2000
26%
Asia %of GDPin 2014
32%
Asia %of GDPin 2050
53%The power map is changing
© 2015 TM Forum | 9 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum
Digitization Connects People, Devices and Businesses at an Exponential Rate
• Digital transformation affects all traditional businesses
• Decision power is moving from boardrooms to consumers
• 200 billion connected devices change the fabric of society
200 Billion Devices & Sensors by 2020
© 2015 TM Forum | 10 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum
Mega-Trends Have an Extreme Effect on Cities
Pollution
Waste
Energy
Congestion
Health
Civil Unrest
Population Growth
Ageing Population
Increasing Income
Urbanization
Economic Shift East
Information Age
© 2015 TM Forum | 11 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: United Nations
Slowing Down: Population Plateaus in 2050
• But there are still two generations of unprecedented growth ahead
• This demands a re-think of how we consume resources, and it needs to be done now!
Fertility
2100NOW
NORTH AMERICAOCEANIA
AFRICA
LATAM
ASIA
1950
Life Expectancy
FamilySize
LifeExpectancy
83yrs
46yrs
EUROPE
© 2015 TM Forum | 12 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: Economist
The Sharing Economy is Thriving
Owning Economy
Sharing Economy
1 : 1
m : m
© 2015 TM Forum | 13 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum Source: Economist
From Ego-Systems to Eco-Systems
• Individuals and businesses must move from ego-systems to eco-systems
• Sharing is more efficient• Collaboration is key to rapid innovation• Ownership is becoming less and less
important• Convenience and cost will be key
factors in the future• A world of co-opetition
© 2015 TM Forum | 14 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum
We Need to Understand the Worldas Interconnected Ecosystems
Smart Social and Economic Ecosystems
Digital Backbone Infrastructure Ecosystem
© 2015 TM Forum | 15 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum
We Need 4P’s: Public - Private - People - Partnership
PeopleSociety
PublicGovernmen
t
PrivateEnterprise
Partnership
© 2015 TM Forum | 16 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum
A Smart City Strategy Equates to a CollaborativeTop-down and Bottom-up Approach
Top-DownIndividuals SMEs + EnterpriseExploit the Digital Backbone
Bottom-UpGovernment Infrastructure
Digital Backbone & Services
© 2015 TM Forum | 17 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum
A Common Ecosystem Language is Necessary
Digital contracts
Reference architectures
Information models
Process models & taxonomy
End-to-end management
Maturity models
Security & privacy
TM Forum
Digital Backplane
Clients, Customers, Apps, Devices
Ecosystem Platforms & Services
Cloud Infrastructure
© 2015 TM Forum | 18 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum
Technology and Interconnected EcosystemsWill Help to Overcome City Diseases
Combinedmobility
Less travel
Happier citizens
Increased densityAutnom.
Vehicles
Self servicegovernment
administration
Socialdevelopment
solutionsLess
pollution
Betterpriorities
Betterlives &health
Smartdata
Bettercommunication
Pollution
Waste
Energy
Congestion
Health
Civil Unrest
Less energyconsumption
© 2015 TM Forum | 19 Peter Sany presentation at the Global City Forum
Digital Transformation and Collaboration Will Make a Better World
Smart CityBetter Life
ExploitingInformation Age