Congressional Budget Office

Presentation at Macroeconomic Advisers’ 25th Annual Washington Policy Seminar

Keith Hall Director

CBO’s Updated Projections for the Federal Budget and the Economy

September 9, 2015

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Outlook for the Budget

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Total Deficits or Surpluses

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Federal Debt Held by the Public

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Total Revenues

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Revenues, by Major Source

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Revenues and Tax Expenditures in 2015

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Total Outlays

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Projected Outlays in Major Budget Categories

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Population, by Age Group

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Spending for the Major Health Programs in 2025 and the Share of That Spending on People at Least 65 Years Old

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Projected Net Interest

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Defense, Nondefense, and Other Mandatory Spending

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Total Revenues and Outlays

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Spending and Revenues Projected in CBO’s Baseline, Compared With Actual Values in 1965 and 1990

Note: * = between zero and 0.05 percent.

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Outlook for Economic Growth

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Growth of Real GDP

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GDP and Potential GDP

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Contributions to the Growth of Real GDP

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Real Total Compensation of Employees

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Business Investment

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Household Formation

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Outlook for the Labor Market

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Rates of Short- and Long-Term Unemployment

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Underuse of Labor

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The Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment

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Employment Shortfall

The employment shortfall is the number of people who would be employed if the unemployment rate equaled its rate in December 2007 (the light blue bars) and if the labor force participation rate equaled its potential rate (the dark blue bars).

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Labor Force Participation and Hourly Labor Compensation

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Outlook for Inflation and Interest Rates

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Inflation

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Forecasts of Interest Rates by CBO, the Federal Reserve, and Federal Funds Futures

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Interest Rates

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Nominal and Real Interest Rates on 10-Year Treasury Notes

*Calculated using the consumer price index for all urban consumers.