GEORGE C. MARSHALL CENTERCollege of International and Security StudiesGarmisch – Partenkirchen, Germany

LTC ULRICH M. JANSSEN M.SC.Email: ulrich.janssen@marshallcenter.orgLinkedIn: Ulrich JanßenTwitter: @UliJanOgauPhone: +49-8821-750-2658 · DSN 440-2658

Integrated Crisis Communications to influence mass behaviour

TURNING VISION INTO IMPACT

Turning Vision Into ImpactThe Changing Character of ConflictChallenges in Behavioural ConflictIntegrated Crisis Communications Planning considerations to ensure C6

The desired effect … impact Integration in Narrative-led Comprehensive

Operations

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C2W“Military Facts”

Peace Crisis/Conflict War Transition Post War Peace

“War is merely the continuation of politics by other means.”Center of Gravity: enemy / enemy capabilities

Human AssistanceCivil EngagementReconstruction(Marshall Plan)

IW(1970)IO(1995-98)

Military Intervention in the Clausewitz’ian sense

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Ongoing significant changes since 1990 Cause of conflict and related threats Geographic Focus Strategy and Complexity We, the enemy, and other actors Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures Role & Training Needs Technology & Information Communications

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Challenge #1War of Choice

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Challenge #2The changing character of crisis and conflict

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Challenge #3Asymmetric Strategies in the early 21st Century Cyber Warfare / Anti-Satellite Warfare

China/Russia RUS ./. EST, RUS ./. GEO Cyber Operations

Nuclear Deterrence North Korea, Iran

Global / Regional Terrorist Networks Al Qaeda, ISIS (ISIL, Daesh)

Insurgencies Afghanistan, Iraq

Hybrid War Ukraine, Syria

Civil Unrest Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen

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Challenge #4Multiple Actors in Crisis Management

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UN OSCE EU NATO NGO PMCGO SingleNation Others

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Action

Uncoordinated action generate uncoordinated / unplanned effectsCrisis resolution hard to predictSuccess depending on continuous presence and engagement of the ICLong-term commitment required (high costs)

Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects

Challenge #5Battlefield of the Media

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Challenge #6 Revolution in Technology and Enhanced Connectivity

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"The extent, depth, andspeed of the new globalmedia have created anew species of effects...The military must understand, anticipate, andplan for this new dynamic." (Margaret H. Belknap, 2001)

Challenge #7The unknown unknowns

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“Military Facts”

MediaSocial structures

Political / Civilstructures

Key Players/Actors Economy

TransportationFinance

Culture

CommunicationGrids

Peace Crisis/Conflict War Transition Post War Peace

People Tradition

ReligionLawEmotions

Education

“War is merely the failure of communications by other means.” (Clausewitz adapted by UJ)

Center of Gravity: people’s perception

Info Ops(> 2001)StratCom(> 2009)

Military Intervention in Operations other than War

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Nature of Conflict

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Alvin TofflerUS Author and Futurologist

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NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Planning Consideration #1The Product powered by the Power of Information

Political CivilMilitary Economic

UNCLASSIFIED

i = 0 1 i = 1 MPEC i > 1 exponentially adding value

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Planning Consideration #2Restore Deterrence in the Social Age

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Deterrence in the Social Age

Deterrence in the Information Age

Deterrence in the Nuclear Age

Planning Consideration #3People in the Focus

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"An endless struggle will be pursued between violence and friendly persuasion... And henceforth, the only honourable course will be to stake everything on a formidable gamble - that WORDS are more powerful than MUNITIONS." Albert Camus (1913-1960)

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People in the Focus · the 3 questions

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Political marketing and the Power of the People

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“Don’t ask what ideas are needed to turn a situation

into good, ask what YOU can do

to make good ideas happen!”

Planning Consideration #3Restore deterrence in the Social Age

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“For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of

skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is

the acme of skill.”

Planning Considerations #3Successful Communications

Paul WatzlawikOne cannot NOT communicate!Dave WatermanEBC · Effects-based CommunicationsMarketingAIDA · Attention, Interest, Desire, ActionMark Laity5S · Simplify, Shorten, Share, Sustain, and StaffChip & Dan Heath: Made to StickSUCCESS · Simple, Unexpected, Concrete, Credible, Emotional, StorieSG. Richard Shell, Mario Moussa: The Art of WOOUsing strategic persuasion to sell your ideas

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“Goods” to sell · Return on InvestThreat reduction

Increased SecurityStability

Lasting PeaceParticipationPartnership

Higher EducationImproved Healthcare

FreedomHappiness

“America is good in selling cars, but fails in selling foreign policy goals and objectives.”

Henry Kissinger in:World Order (2014)

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Planning Consideration #4Audience Analysis

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Perception

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The ChallengeEnsure C6

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Summary & ConclusionChanging Character of Conflict• War of Choice• 21st Century Strategies &

Means• Multiple Actors, Multiple Effects• Technology changing

Communications• Battlefield of the Media• The Unknown Unknowns• Behavioural Conflict

Planning Considerations• [MxPxExC] powered by I• Restoration of Deterrence in

the Social Age• inspiring

• People in the Focus• Walk the Talk• Narrative-led Operations

• The 3 Questions• Don’t tell them, inspire them

• Successful Communications• Audience Analysis

• Motivation• Perception

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Turning Vision Into ImpactFinal thoughts

Narrative (values & beliefs)Strategy (vision & objectives)Implementation Planning (step-by-step, effect by effect)Supporting Plans & ResourcesWalk the Talk (activities; going public)

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Integrated Crisis Communications to influence mass behaviour

TURNING VISION INTO IMPACT