Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
THE IMPORTANCE OF IMMIGRANTS TO BOSTON’S CONTINUED PROSPERITY
Office of Health and Human ServicesJuly 2015
2
During the last decades Boston’s population
grew
3
Boston’s population grew by 14% between 1980 and 2010 exceeding 600,000 people for the first time since 1970
Sources: 1900-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2013 American Community Survey 1-year estimate, BRA Research Division Analysis
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
850,000
644,710
617,594589,141574,823
562,994
641,071
697,197
801,444
770,816781,188
748,060
670,585
560,892
Boston's Population (1900-2013)
Decennial Census ACS Estimate, 2013
2013
4
… grew faster than the state for the first time in the last one hundred years
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.1%
5.5%4.9%
0.8%
10.5%9.8%
8.7%
1.6%
10.3%
14.4%
4.8%
2.5%2.1%
-12.2%
-8.1%
-13.0%
4.0%
-1.3%
4.4%
11.6%
19.6%
Population Growth for Boston and Massachusetts by Decade (1910 – 2010)
Boston % Change Massachusetts % Change
Source: 1910-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, Metropolitan Area Planning Council, MetroBoston DataCommon, Population by Decade for the MetroFuture Region, BRA Research Division Analysis
5
… compared favorably to most Northern cities…
Raleigh, NC
Charlotte, NC
Austin, TX
Portland, OR
Miami, FL
Phoenix, AZ
Denver, CO
Seattle, WA
Houston, TX
San Diego, CA
San Jose, CA
Washington, DC
Boston, MA
San Francisco, CA
Los Angeles, CA
New York, NY
Atlanta, GA
Dallas, TX
Philadelphia, PA
Minneapolis, MN
Baltimore, MD
Chicago, IL
St. Louis, MO
Pittsburgh, PA
Detroit, MI
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
46.3%
35.2%
20.4%
10.3%
10.2%
9.4%
8.2%
8.0%
7.5%
6.9%
5.7%
5.2%
4.8%
3.7%
2.6%
2.1%
0.8%
0.8%
0.6%
0.0%
-4.6%-6.9%
-8.3%
-8.6%-25.0%
Population Growth with Comparison Cities* (2000 - 2010)
This report’s consistent set of 25 comparison cities: the principal cities of the nation’s largest metropolitan areas, plus 3 cities whose highly educated metro area populations make them good comparisons for Boston: Raleigh, Austin and San Jose.Source: 2000 and 2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BRA Research Division Analysis
States with liberal land annexation laws
6
… and the foreign-born population accounted for much of the city’s population growth of the last five decades
Note: Subtotals may not exactly add to total due to differences in data sourcesSource: 1950-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2010 & 2013 1-year estimates, American Community Survey, BRA Research Division Analysis
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
167,311
178,805144,092
109,96483,988 87,056
114,597151,836
454,072
465,905
657,352
587,974557,068
475,938 459,686437,305
644,710
Native and Foreign-born Components of Boston's Population (1950-2013)
Total Population Native Born
Foreign Born American Community Survey Estimates
2013
7
… including the fact that immigration also drives native's population growth - 40% of births are to foreign-born mothers
Source: Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston Public Health Commission Research and Evaluation Office
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
8,067 8,0037,716
7,906 8,0157,807
8,011
4,486 4,4064,042
3,8573,875
3,646 3,737 3,581 3,597 3,674
4,049 4,140 4,161 4,274
Boston Resident Births and Death (2000-2012)
Births Deaths Natural Growth
8
it didn't just
grow, it grew
younger
9
While the median age in Massachusetts and the U.S. has risen significantly since 1970, Boston has maintained a more youthful population
Source: 1950-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2013 1-Year American Community Survey, BRA Research Division Analysis
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 201025
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
37.237.5
39.139.4
31.7
30.2
29.5
28.1
30
32.9
35.3
32.8
32.1
29.5
31.2
33.4
36.5
39.1
32.6
32.9
28.1 28.9
30.431.1 30.8
Median Age in Boston/MA/US (1950-2013)
Boston Masachusetts U.S. ACS Estimates
2013
10
Source: 1990-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2005-2013 American Community Survey 1-year estimate, BRA Research Division Analysis
… with 34% of the city’s population between the ages of 20 to 34, demonstrating a low dependency ratio…
11
… and 34% of the city’s population concentrated between the ages of 20 and 34
Source: 1950-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2013 1-Year American Community Survey, BRA Research Division Analysis
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20130%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
28.9% 32.1% 33.3%26.9% 23.3% 24.1% 22.0% 21.4%
24.6% 20.6%24.4%
33.5%36.3% 33.1% 35.0% 34.3%
36.8% 35.1%29.5% 27.0% 28.9% 32.4% 33.0% 33.8%
9.7% 12.3% 12.8% 12.7% 11.5% 10.4% 10.1% 10.6%
Age Distribution of Boston's Population (1950-2013)
0-19 20-34 35-64 65 and over
12
… not just
youngerbut
smarter
13
44% of Boston’s population has at least a bachelor’s degree
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1950 – 2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2013 1-Year American Community Survey, BRA Research Division Analysis
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20130%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
6.4% 7.6% 10.5%20.3%
30.0% 34.9%42.5% 43.9%
6.6% 7.7%8.6%
13.1%
19.1%19.3%
18.2% 18.7%
28.9% 29.3%35.2%
35.0%
26.6%24.1%
23.6% 22.4%53.9%
55.4%45.7%
31.6%24.3% 21.7%
15.7% 15.0%4.2%
6.2% 7.7%10.8%
16.2%20.3%
24.4%27.9% 29.6%
Educational Attainment of Boston vs U.S. (1950-2013)
Bachelor's degree or higher Some college of Associate's degree High school
Less than high school Not reported U.S. Bachelor's degree or higher
% o
f Popula
tion 2
5 Y
ears
and O
ver
14
… ranking 8th among comparable cities…
CityPercent with at Least a BA
City City RankPercent with at Least a BA
Metro Area Metro Area RankSeattle, WA 57.4% 1 38.0% 9Washington, DC 52.4% 3 47.9% 1San Francisco, CA 52.4% 2 44.5% 3Raleigh, NC 47.5% 4 42.2% 5Atlanta, GA 46.8% 5 34.9% 12Minneapolis, MN 45.7% 6 38.4% 8Austin, TX 45.6% 7 40.6% 6Boston, MA 43.9% 8 43.4% 4Portland, OR 43.8% 9 34.5% 15Denver, CO 42.9% 10 39.2% 7San Diego, CA 41.7% 11 34.6% 14Charlotte, NC 39.8% 12 30.6% 20San Jose, CA 37.4% 13 45.7% 2Pittsburgh, PA 35.5% 14 29.9% 21New York, NY 34.5% 15 36.5% 10Chicago, IL 34.2% 16 34.6% 13Los Angeles, CA 31.1% 17 31.4% 18St. Louis, MO 29.6% 18 30.9% 19Dallas, TX 29.4% 19 31.7% 17Houston, TX 29.2% 20 29.4% 22Baltimore, MD 26.8% 21 36.0% 11Phoenix, AZ 26.3% 22 28.7% 24Philadelphia, PA 23.9% 23 33.6% 16Miami, FL 23.1% 24 28.9% 23Detroit, MI 12.7% 25 28.1% 25
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2013 American Community Survey, BRA Research Division Analysis
Educational Attainment for Comparison Cities
15
Source:1970, 1980, 2000 U.S. Decennial Census, 1990 Public Use Microdata Sample, 2006-2010 & 2009-2013 American Community Survey
… with a shrinking gender gap in educational attainment
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
45.0%
45.4%
7.9%
16.6%
26.9%
33.4%
41.8%
13.3%
24.7%
32.8%
36.6%
43.2%
Population 25+ with a Bachelor's Degree or Higher
Male
Female
Male, ACS
Female, ACS
2013
16
Source: 1980-2000 U.S. Decennial Census, 2006-2010 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), BRA Research Division Analysis
1980 1990 2000 20100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
21.8%
32.3%
39.8%
49.3%
11.6%
20.7%
26.5%30.1%
Population 25+ with Bachelor's Degree or Higher
Native Foreign born
Widening Gap!
1980 1990 2000 20100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
27.1%
20.3%15.6%
9.5%
50.9%
38.2%34.1%
27.6%
Population 25+ with less than High School Education
Native Foreign born
… and even though the educational attainment of both the native and foreign-born populations has been increasing over time…
…. the foreign-born population has significantly lower levels of educational attainment than the native population
17
and the city became more
diverse
18
Today less than half of Boston’s population is white, compared to close to 80% in 1980 with Hispanic and Asian immigration contributing heavily to Boston’s growing diversity
Note: 2000 was the first year the Census compiled data on individuals who identified themselves as multiracial. Those who indicated “two or more races” are included in “Other” in 2000 and 2010 in this chart.
Source: 1970 -2010 U.S. Decennial Census, 2009-2013 American Community Survey, BRA Research Division Analysis
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20130%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
79.8%
67.9%59.0%
49.5% 47.0% 46.6%
15.8%
21.7%
23.8%
23.8%22.4% 22.9%
2.6%6.4%
10.8%
14.4%17.5% 18.0%
1.3%2.7% 5.2%
7.5% 8.9% 9.0%
1.4% 1.2%
4.7% 4.3% 3.7%
Boston's Diverse Population 1970-2013
White Black / African American Hispanic Asian / Pacific Islander Other
19
… since 2000, Boston has become a “majority-minority” city partly due to the growth of the foreign-born population from Latin America, the Caribbean, and Asia
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1.4% 1.7% 1.9% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.9% 3.3%5.3%
9.8%
20.2%
32.1%
41.0%
50.5%53.0%
98.6% 98.3% 98.1% 97.7% 97.8% 97.7% 97.1% 96.7%94.7%
90.2%
79.8%
67.9%
59.0%
49.5%47.0%
Boston's Minority Population 1870-2010
Total non-White population White population
Source: 1950-2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BRA Research Division Analysis
20
Racial diversity by census tract increased dramatically in most of Boston from 1970 to 2010
Source: 1970 - 2010 U.S. Decennial Census, BRA Research Division Analysis
RACIAL DIVERSITY
21
DISPERSION AND CONCENTRATION OF BLACK/AFRICAN AMERICAN POPULATION
In 1970, the Black/African American population was largely concentrated in the neighborhoods of Roxbury and parts of Dorchester and Mattapan
Source: 1970 U.S. Decennial Census, BRA Research Division Analysis
22
DISPERSION AND CONCENTRATION HISPANIC POPULATIONThe Hispanic population has grown significantly since 1970 with large communities forming in East Boston and Jamaica Plain
Source: 1970 U.S. Decennial Census, BRA Research Division Analysis
immigrants are a big part of this story…
24
Historically, Boston has had a greater proportion of foreign-born residents than both Massachusetts and the U.S.
Source: 1850-2000 U.S. Decennial Census, 2000 & 2013 1-year American Community Survey, BRA Research Division Analysis
18
50
18
60
18
70
18
80
18
90
19
00
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
34%
36%
13%
27%
17%
32%
9%
15%
10%
15%
5%
13%
Proportion of Population that is Foreign-Born (1850-2010)
Quotas Policy Boston Massachusetts United States
25
… Boston ranks 7th among comparable cities in proportion of the population that is foreign-born
This report uses a consistent set of 25 US cities for all comparisons. See Slide 15 for more detail.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 1-year American Community Survey, BRA Research Division Analysis
72.3%
27.7%
Boston’s Population by Nativity 2013
Native Foreign born
Foreign-born Rank% of Foreign -
born CityTotal Population
Rank1 56.6% Miami, FL 222 39.3% San Jose,CA 93 38.2% Los Angeles, CA 24 37.0% New York, NY 15 34.9% San Francisco, CA 106 28.3% Houston, TX 47 27.7% Boston, MA 158 26.3% San Diego, CA 79 24.4% Dallas, TX 8
10 21.1% Chicago, IL 311 19.7% Phoenix, AZ 612 18.1% Austin, TX 1113 17.7% Seattle,WA 1614 16.1% Minneapolis, MN 2315 16.1% Charlotte, NC 1216 15.2% Denver, CO 1817 14.7% Portland, OR 1918 14.4% Washington, DC 1719 12.8% Raleigh, NC 2120 12.7% Philadelphia, PA 521 8.3% Pittsburgh, PA 2522 7.2% Atlanta, GA 2023 7.1% Baltimore, MD 1424 6.9% St. Louis, MO 2425 5.0% Detroit, MI 13
26
DISPERSION AND CONCENTRATION OF THE FOREIGN BORN POPULATIONThe percentage of the population that is foreign-born has increased in most census tracts in Boston since 1970
27
… today, most of Boston’s immigrants come from Latin America, the Caribbean, and Asia - a dramatic change from 1970 when most immigrants came from Europe
Source: 1970-2000 U.S. Decennial Census and 2006-2010 and 2009-2013 American Community Survey
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20130%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
25.2%
32.3%
45.1% 49.3% 50.3% 50.7%
8.0%
16.0%
21.0%24.2% 25.3% 25.5%
63.6%
37.9%
24.2% 17.5% 14.3% 13.6%
0.6%4.8% 3.3%
9.0% 10.1% 10.2%
Region of Origin of Boston's Immigrants
Americas Asia Europe Africa
28
… the top ten countries of origin represent 57% of the total foreign-born population…
Trinidad and Tobago
Guatemala
Jamaica
Colombia
Cape Verde
Vietnam
El Salvador
Haiti
China
Dominican Republic
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
2.1%
2.5%
3.6%
3.7%
4.0%
5.5%
5.6%
9.2%
10.0%
10.7%
Top Ten Countries of Origin of Boston's Foreign-born - 2013
Source: 2009-2013 American Community Survey
29
Boston’s immigrant populations cluster together in particular neighborhoods.
Source: 2006-2010 American Community Survey
FOREING-BORN POPULATION BY NEIGHBOHOODS
30
… without the influx of immigrants, Boston’s population would be smaller today than it was in 1990…
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
1990 2000 2010 350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
461,798
436,742
457,239
573,287
590,490
623,134
Boston’s Population Trends – (1990 – 2010)
Na-tiveTotal
Year
Popula
tion
31
… Boston’s labor force and its output would be smaller as well…
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990-2010 Decennial Census, BRA Research Division Analysis
1990 2000 2010 150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
229,843
203,454
302,502 288,076 283,576
403,386
Boston’s Workforce Trends (1990 – 2010)
Native EmployedPolynomial (Native Em-ployed)
Year
Popula
tion
1990 2000 2010$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$26
$38
$87
$21
$29
$67
Boston Output Trends (in 2010 Dollars)
Total
Native
Year
Billions o
f U
S D
ollars
32
… immigrants also contribute as consumers and entrepreneurs by creating jobs, producing wealth, and paying taxes…
Source: 2010 Regional Economic Modeling and Corporate, US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
Consumer Impact– Total Consumer Spending: $3.48 billion– Indirect Jobs: 29,044 jobs– Total Direct Taxes Paid: $940 million
Business Impact– Number of Businesses: 7,988– Total Number of Employees
• Direct Jobs: 20,713 jobs• Indirect Jobs: 24,267 jobs
– Total Annual Sales: $3.78 Billion
Total Impact
– Total Gross State Product: $9.79 billion– State and Federal Taxes: $1.54 billion– Total Direct & Indirect Jobs: 74,025
33
… immigrants contribute in other ways as well…
Source: 2010 Regional Economic Modeling and Corporate, US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
If the discussions about the benefits and costs of immigrant labor would take into account that immigrant labor is not just labor, but labor that comes from somewhere else:
we would have to account not only for their net direct and indirect contribution of $75.2 billion,
but also for the massive subsidy of $1.5 trillion embodied in the immigrant labor force and incurred by sending economies
…the cost of producing this labor force before they emigrate
34
… finally, they contribute also to their countries of origin
Source: 2010 Regional Economic Modeling and Corporate, US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
Remittances are among the most tangible links between migration and development
According to the World Bank, in 2013 global remittances reached $550 billion
progress has been made but there are still
barriers to integration
36
… a higher proportion of foreign-born residents have limited English proficiency in 2010 than in 2000…
Source: 2000 Census Public Use Microdata Sample and 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample BRA Research Division Analysis
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census, 2006-2010 American Community Survey, BRA Research Division Analysis* Sample is limited only to the population aged 5+
Eng-lish Profi-
cient70%
Limited Eng-lish Proficiency
30%
Foreign-born English Proficiency -- 2010
English Pro-ficient74%
Limited Eng-lish Proficiency
26%
Foreign-born English Proficiency -- 2000
37
… 27.6% of immigrants aged 25+ have not completed high school compared to 9.5% of the native born…
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2010 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample , BRA Research Division Analysis
Less than High School
High School Some College Associates Degree Bachelors Degree Graduate Degree0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%27.6%
26.3%
11.4%
4.7%
16.0%
14.1%
9.5%
22.4%
14.2%
4.7%
27.9%
21.4%
Educational Attainment by Nativity among the popu-lation aged 25+, 2010
Foreign-born Native-born
38
… the income gap between foreign and native born grows with level of education…
Source: 2000 Census Public Use Microdata Sample and 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample BRA Research Division Analysis
Source: 2006-2010 American Community Survey, Public Use Micro-data Sample (PUMS), BRA Research Division Analysis* Sample is the population aged 25+ of wage earners only
$9,000
Less than High School
High School
Some College
Associates Degree
Bachelors Degree
Graduate Degree
$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000
$20,000
$25,000
$27,000
$34,300
$38,000
$55,000
$18,000
$30,000
$35,000
$39,700
$54,000
$64,000
Median Income by Educational Attainment, 2010*
Native-born Foreign-born
$16,000
$5,400
$8,000
$5,000
-$2,000
39
… these outcomes are the result of barriers that not allow immigrants to gain the education, learn the language and acquire the skills the need, hampering integration
Years in the U.S.
Hig
her
Incom
eLow
er
In
com
e
Upward Integratio
n
Downward
Integration
Integration depends on the “Opportunity Structure” immigrants encounter:
Work permits
Education & Training
Certification
Language Acquisition
Access to Employment
Fair Labor Practices
etc…
Middle Class
Integration Paths
40
…a final thought about “integration”
41
Traditional Frame
42
43
Transnational Platform(Global Social Protection)
44
thank you
