The impact of climate change on the achievement of the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals

The impact of climate change on the achievement of the post-2015

sustainable development goals

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Key messages

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• Strong SDGs will help to achieve a more ambitious climate agreement

• An ambitious climate agreement will help to achieve the SDGs

• Impacts up to 2030:

• Climate impacts before 2030 may not differ greatly under a

strong or weak climate agreement, BUT

• The climate agreement WILL significantly impact global

development from now to 2030

Climate and Development Knowledge Network | www.cdkn.org

By 2030, the low-ambition agreement is projected to result in:

• 80% – 140% higher poverty levels for Asia and sub-Saharan Africa

• 25% higher poverty levels for LAC

than the high-ambition agreement

Method

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• combination of RCP4.5 and SSP1

• 2°C temperature increase by 2100

• policies for rapid income growth, reduced reliance on natural resources


IPCC (2014)

• combination of RCP8.5 and SSP3

• 3-5°C temperature increase by 2100

• economic growth is slower, lack of international cooperation, slow technological progress

High-ambition climate agreement

Low-ambition climate agreement

Case study: Caribbean countries

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• Small economies, low population, low emissions

• High energy expenditure

• Keen on expanding domestic energy supplies

• Keen on increasing use of renewable energy technologies

Would welcome a strong agreement:

• access to more resources for investment

• reach their energy targets


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6Climate and Development Knowledge Network | www.cdkn.org

Poverty SDG (peopleunder national poverty line)

2015 2030

high-ambition low-ambition

Jamaica 490,000 180,000 400,000

Dominica 20,700 10,200 16,600

• Poverty impacts of the agreement are greater than in the analysis of LAC as a whole• Extreme events exacerbate poverty

• Potential for women to benefit from climate financing• Energy is of considerable importance:

• A high-ambition agreement would create the right policy framework and help finance the energy transition



Case study: Pakistan


• Shift towards energy policy enhancing the role of renewables• Investment to increase water and food security• Promotion of rapid, sustainable urban growth

High-ambition agreement benefits:• Support for renewable energy growth• Greater investments in infrastructure• Adaptation finance for agricultural and

water sectors

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Poverty SDG (Number of people below the poverty line of US$1.25 per day )

2015 2030


Pakistan 25 million zero 8.6 million

• Compared to the average for South Asia, the effect of a strong agreement on poverty is much greater in Pakistan:• Poverty is impacted by extreme events• Financial backing much more likely under a strong agreement

• Water sector needs significant resources• A strong climate agreement would increase water infrastructure

• Energy deficit is critical and need for action is urgent• Climate finance will help develop hydro and renewable resources



Case study: Uganda


• Major urban infrastructure investments • Compact energy efficient developments• Efficient, low-carbon transport system• Energy system that develops the low-carbon indigenous resources

High-ambition agreement benefits: • Greater emphasis to renewables and non-fossil sources• External finance will be enhanced

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Case study: Uganda


Poverty SDG (Number of people below the poverty line of US$1.25 per day )

2015 2030


Uganda 15 million 12 million 19 million

• In neither case the goal of extreme poverty eradication is met• Water sector imbalances due to water deficit/flooding, likely

to be exacerbated by climate change:• support is more likely to be forthcoming under a strong agreement

• Energy sector links between developing a modern energy sector and phasing out the high dependence on traditional biomass

Case study: Uganda


Research recommendations

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Improved understanding is needed on:

• How development pathways change due to alternative warming and decarbonisation scenarios

• Links between extreme events and poverty

• Co-benefits of low-carbon energy development

• Links between the water & sanitation and health SDGs

• Extending the country-level analysis to cover more SDGs

• More and better quantitative data on gender metrics


Conclusions

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• A high-ambition agreement:

• Will pave the way towards eradicating poverty, ensuring food security and protecting future generations from the impacts of a changing climate

• Is likely to provide significant benefits to both the climate and development agendas over the next two decades

• Is essential to have the best chance of achieving the SDGs by 2030

• Strong SDGs will support efforts to implement a more ambitious agreement


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Contact:

[email protected]

www.cdkn.org

@cdknetwork

This document is an output from a project commissioned through the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN). CDKN is a programme funded by the UK Department for

International Development (DFID) and the Netherlands Directorate-General for International Cooperation (DGIS) for the benefit of developing countries. The views expressed and

information contained in it are not necessarily those of or endorsed by DFID, DGIS or the entities managing the delivery of the Climate and Development Knowledge Network, which can

accept no responsibility or liability for such views, completeness or accuracy of the information or for any reliance placed on them. The Climate and Development Knowledge Network

(“CDKN”) is a project funded by the UK Department for International Development and the Netherlands Directorate-General for International Cooperation (DGIS) and is led and administered

by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. Management of the delivery of CDKN is undertaken by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, and an alliance of organisations including Fundación Futuro

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The impact of climate change on the achievement of the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals