The Budget and Spending Review

Things to watch

Overview

Strong track record on spending control

But pressures much greater in 2015 than in 2010

Budget and Spending Review need to:

Set departmental budgets that eliminate deficit

Devise implementable plans to maintain service quality

Ensure reforms are politically sustainable

3

Coalition’s spending control record

Lack of growth and tax revenue

Kept to spending budgets

Perceptions of service quality

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

DfIDDECC DEFRA

DCMS DfE DWP DH

BIS MoJ

MoD CO

FCO

Departmental Resource DEL, latest outturn as % of Spending Review 2010 plans: 2013/14

4

Perceptions of changes in service quality in last five years, asked in 2013

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Overall public services

Road maintenance The police

Care for the elderly

Hospitals

Street cleaning

Meals on wheels

GP surgeries

Bus services

Libraries

Street lighting

Refuse collection

Schools and colleges

Leisure centres

Parks and open spaces

Recycling collection

Coalition’s spending control record

Worse Better

Coalition’s spending control record

Lack of growth and tax revenue

Kept to spending budgets

Perceptions of service quality

Pressures much greater in 2015

Keeping to budget harder

Growing public concern

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80 GE 2010

Economy

NHS

Proportion of people naming issue as one of top three facing Britain

Pressures much greater in 2015

Keeping to budget harder

Growing public concern

Pressure on service quality

Accident & Emergency: 4 hour waiting time target

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201490.0%

92.5%

95.0%

97.5%

100.0%

4 hour wait time

achieved

95% target

8

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Falling prison staff numbers

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Rising serious assaults in prisons

Efficiency or pressure? Pressure

Pressures much greater in 2015

Pressures much greater in 2015

Keeping to budget harder

Growing public concern

Pressure on service quality

Set departmental budgets

Budget (8 Jul)

Party Conference (5-8 Oct)

Spending review (Autumn)

Tax revenue decisions In-year departmental cuts

Departmental spending envelope

Something eye-catching

Benefit cuts

Further benefit cuts? Departmental budgets

Something else eye-catching?

Likely final announcements

Devise implementable plans

Generate efficiencies

020406080

100120140160

9443

137

228

108

Components of NHS plan

Devise implementable plans

Generate efficiencies

Join up services locally No trust in competence of decentralised government

Departments won’t give up powers

Decentralisation reversible at a whim

Resists decentralisation to wrong geographical scale

Not interested and opt for status quo

Will only support if makes a difference

Sceptical of value of ‘more politicians’

Concerns over identity can dictate geographies

Local politicians lose power to new layer

Minority-controlled sub-areas threatened

Blockages to decentralisation

Central government

Local government

The public

Devise implementable plans

Generate efficiencies

Join up services locally No trust in competence of decentralised government

Departments won’t give up powers

Decentralisation reversible at a whim

Resists decentralisation to wrong geographical scale

Not interested and opt for status quo

Will only support if makes a difference

Sceptical of value of ‘more politicians’

Concerns over identity can dictate geographies

Local politicians lose power to new layer

Minority-controlled sub-areas threatened

Blockages to decentralisation

Central government

Local government

The public

Devise implementable plans

Generate efficiencies

Join up services locally No trust in competence of decentralised government

Departments won’t give up powers

Decentralisation reversible at a whim

Resists decentralisation to wrong geographical scale

Not interested and opt for status quo

Will only support if makes a difference

Sceptical of value of ‘more politicians’

Concerns over identity can dictate geographies

Local politicians lose power to new layer

Minority-controlled sub-areas threatened

Blockages to decentralisation

Central government

Local government

The public

Devise implementable plans

Generate efficiencies

Join up services locally No trust in competence of decentralised government

Departments won’t give up powers

Decentralisation reversible at a whim

Resists decentralisation to wrong geographical scale

Not interested and opt for status quo

Will only support if makes a difference

Sceptical of value of ‘more politicians’

Concerns over identity can dictate geographies

Local politicians lose power to new layer

Minority-controlled sub-areas threatened

Blockages to decentralisation

Central government

Local government

The public

Devise implementable plans

Generate efficiencies

Join up services locally

Strengthen Whitehall

Political sustainability

Cuts seen as necessary

2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Necessary

Unnecessary

Don’t know

Proportion saying cuts necessary or unnecessary

Political sustainability

Cuts seen as necessary

Cuts seen as fair

Proportion saying cuts being done fairly or unfairly

2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Fairly

Unfairly

Don't Know

Political sustainability

Cuts seen as necessary

Cuts seen as fair

Missing markets?

Conclusion

Major tasks ahead

Setting the departmental budgets is comparatively easy

Implementing changes will be much more difficult

Success second time around?