Retrofit aggregation What can Canada learn from the Netherlands?

Tom-Pierre Frappé-Sénéclauze

Senior Advisor, Pembina Institute

May 31, 2017

@tompierrefs

2

Leading Canada’s transition to clean energy The Pembina Institute is a non-profit think-tank that advocates for strong, effective policies to support Canada's clean-energy transition.

Referencecase

CLP+Fed.Carbonprice

-33%2020

-30%from2005,basedonfederaltarget

-80%2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Ann

uale

mission

sinM

tCO2e

(+ forestry credits)

B.C. emissions

CIMS modeling by Navius

Proposed building sector targets

40-50% by 2030

80-100% by 2050

Emissions from B.C. buildings

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GH

G e

mis

sion

s fr

om b

uild

ings

(M

t)

Business as usual

Net-zero ready policy

Net-zero ready policy +

Retrofit strategy

40%-50% 2030

80%-100% 2050

Targets:

3% retrofit rate electrify 1 out of 2

25% GHG reduction in rest

BUSINESS

CASE

$

$

$

$

SIMPLIFIED ACCESS

RETROFITS AT

SCALE

• Carbon pricing• Retrofit codes • Public financing

CONSUMER

AWARENESS

• Electrification strategyDEEP

EMISSIONS

REDUCTIONS

• Demand aggregation

• Innovative financing mechanisms

• Integrated delivery

• Energy disclosure • Valuation of non-energy

benefits INDUSTRY CAPACITY

Conditions for success

6

WELCOMEbyJaspervandenMunckhof

BEAUTIFUL,COMFORTABLEANDAFFORDABLEHOMESFORLIFE.

Slide:Energiesprong

QUALITY Long-year warranty energy performance house

NON-INTRUSIVE Refurbishment within one week

AFFORDABLE Financeable from energy cost savings

IMPROVE LOOK & FEEL Make the neighbours jealous

Slide:Energiesprong

Slide:Energiesprong

DEAL: 111,000 NET ZERO ENERGY REFURBISHMENTS

housing associations construction companies

Slide:Energiesprong

INTEGRATE & INDUSTRIALISE

Slide:Energiesprong

Slide:Energiesprong

Slide:Energiesprong

V1: 2 WEEKS V2: 1 WEEK V3: 1 DAY

Slide:Energiesprong

Slide:Energiesprong

Slide:Energiesprong

Slide:Energiesprong

Slide:Energiesprong

Slide:Energiesprong

Slide:Energiesprong

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28

REALIZE

May 4-5, 2017 | San Francisco, CA

CatalyzingMarketBasedPathwaystoZero

Slide: RMI

29

Three Prototypical San Francisco Building Types

Prototypes selected represent majority of the affordable housing market

Category:5-9 unit buildings Market Share: 8.9% (~6.2K units)

6 Unit Prototype •  Built pre-1980s •  4,725 sqft •  3 stories •  Row home •  Furnace, no cooling* •  Individual gas HW heater

Category: 10-19 unit buildings Market Share: 22.5% (~16K units) 15 Unit Prototype •  Built pre-1980s •  11,270 sqft •  3 stories •  Stand alone building •  Furnace, no cooling* •  Central gas HW heater

Category: 20+ unit building Market Share: 66.2% (~46K units)

65 Unit Prototype •  Built pre-1980s •  40,900 sqft •  5 stories •  Stand alone building •  Central boiler, no cooling* Central

gas HW heater

Major Takeaways: •  Majority of buildings (~65%) were constructed prior to 1980 and likely have gas furnace heating •  Majority of affordable housing buildings are three stories or less

*58% of San Francisco homes use NG, 36% electricity according to a ACEEE 2017 report Slide: RMI

30

Results Summary

For the 6 and 15 unit prototype there are many paths to net zero. For the 65 unit prototype you can reach net zero, but costs will need to be reduced.

Slide: RMI

Energy Consumption in non-profit housing

Graph: BC-NPHA

Current unfunded liability: $400 Million

Graph: BC-NPHA

…and by 2028: $3 Billions

Social housing stock in B.C.

33

1,2206,148

24,060

3,48211,763

363

12,832

5,666

4,277

#ofunits

HighRise-BCHousing

Apartment-BCHousing

Apartment-NPHA

Townhouse-BCHousing

Townhouse-NPHA

Duplex,SingleFamilyHouse-BCHousingDuplex,SingleFamilyHouse-NPHAOther-BCHousing

Other-NPHA

Apartment

Townhouse

SFD-Duplexes

Other

Data: BC Housing, BC-NPHA

Tom-Pierre Frappé-Sénéclauze tompierrefs@pembina.org

@tompierrefs

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twitter.com/pembina

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Building stock evolution

0

100

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300

400

500

600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Build

ing

Floo

r A

rea

(mill

ion

m2)

Pre-2000 construction

2000-2010 construction

Net-zero energy ready

1/3

2/3 1/2

1/2 TODAY

BUSINESS

CASE

$

$

$

$

SIMPLIFIED ACCESS

RETROFITS AT

SCALE

• Carbon pricing• Retrofit codes • Public financing

CONSUMER

AWARENESS

• Electrification strategyDEEP

EMISSIONS

REDUCTIONS

• Demand aggregation

• Innovative financing mechanisms

• Integrated delivery

• Energy disclosure • Valuation of non-energy

benefits INDUSTRY CAPACITY

Strategies

36