Post-Election Briefing from the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation

2014 Election Updates & Insights

Post-Election BriefingNovember 6, 2014

Joe StewartExecutive [email protected]

(919) 614-0520

The North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization exclusively focused on providing innovative educational programs to foster informed civic involvement and a better understanding of how voters perceive key public policy issues that impact our state’s economic vitality.

NCFEF does not lobby, or participate in any way with political campaigns.

NC FreeEnterprise Foundation

NCFEF in action – 2014 Election

What was the 2014 election ‘about?’

Voter Turnout = 44% Black voter participation = 19 – 20%White UNA voters in suburban and rural areas = 60:40 for GOP White DEM xover = 12 – 14%

Conventional Voter Behavior (CVB)

NC CVB = 0

Greater Diversity

Less Native

Suburban Swingers

More political ads run than any other state

US Senate

Kay Hagan (I)

Incumbent

47%

Thom Tillis

NC House Speaker

49%

Sean Haugh

Delivery Driver

4%

Was polling off somehow?

In Washington v Raleigh battle, Washington (Obama) lost

Momentum at the end mattered

Did deluge of ads make a difference, because a deluge of ads is probably the new norm

Was LIB a spoiler? Haugh = 108,177 Tillis – Hagan = 48,501

LIB high water mark

2010 2002

Richard Burr 54.81% Elizabeth H. Dole 53.56%Elaine Marshall 43.05% Erskine B. Bowles 44.96%Michael Beitler 2.09% Sean Haugh 1.45%

Write-in 0.05% Write In 0.03%

2014

Thom Tillis 48.88%Kay Hagan 47.20%

Sean Haugh 3.74%Write In 0.18%

2014 US Senate, by winner in county

2014 US Senate, by margin of victory in county

AVERY

BURKE

CH

OW

AN

CLEVELAND

GUILFORD

MARTIN

ALA

MA

NC

E

ALEXANDER

ALLEGHANY

ANSON

ASHE

BEAUFORT

BERTIE

BLADEN

BRUNSWICK

BUNCOMBE

CABARRUS

CALDWELL

CAMDEN

CARTERET

CASWELL

CATAWBA

CHATHAM

CHEROKEE

CLAY

COLUMBUS

CRAVEN

CUMBERLAND

CURRITUCK

DAREDAVIDSON

DAVIE

DUPLIN

DURHAM

EDGECOMBE

FORSYTHFRANKLIN

GASTON

GATES

GRAHAM

GR

AN

VIL

LE

GREENE

HALIFAX

HARNETT

HAYWOOD

HENDERSON

HERTFORD

HOKE

HYDE

IREDELL

JACKSON

JOHNSTON

JONES

LEE

LENOIR

LINCOLN

MCDOWELL

MACON

MADISON

MECKLENBURG

MITCHELL

MO

NTG

OM

ER

Y

MOORE

NASH

NEWHANOVER

NORTHAMPTON

ONSLOW

ORANGE

PAMLICO

PASQ

UO

TAN

K

PENDER

PERQ

UIM

AN

S

PERSON

PITT

POLK

RANDOLPH

RICHMOND

ROBESON

ROCKINGHAM

ROWAN

RUTHERFORD

SAMPSON

SCOTLAND

STANLY

STOKESSURRY

SWAIN

TRANSYLVANIA

TYRRELL

UNION

VANCE

WAKE

WARREN

WASHINGTON

WATAUGA

WAYNE

WILKES

WILSON

YADKIN

YANCEY

Strong GOP > 5% RLean GOP 2% R - 5% R

Competitive 2% R - 2% DLean DEM 2% D - 5% D

Strong DEM > 5% D

2014 Senate, NY Times on intensity within VTD

NC Supreme CourtChief Justice

Mark Martin (former Associate Supreme Court Justice, now Chief Justice) 72%

Ola Lewis (current NC Superior Court Judge) 28%

Associate Justice (Martin Seat)

Sam J. Ervin IV (current Court of Appeals Judge) 53%

Robert N. Hunter Jr. (former Court of Appeals Judge, now Associate Justice) 47%

Associate Justice (Hudson Seat)

Robin E. Hudson (current Associate Supreme Court Justice) 52%

Eric L. Levinson (fmr. Court of Appeals Judge) 48%

Associate Justice (Beasley Seat)

Cheri Beasley (current Associate Supreme Court Justice) 50.1%

Mike Robinson (Attorney) 49.9%

Court of Appeals

Court of Appeals (Hunter Seat)

Lucy Inman (Special Superior Court Judge) 52%

Bill Southern (District Court Judge - District 17-B) 48%

Court of Appeals (Stroud Seat)

Donna Stroud (Incumbent Judge) 100%

Court of Appeals (Davis Seat)

Mark Davis (Incumbent Judge) 59%

Paul Holcombe (District Court Judge - District 11) 41%

Court of Appeals

Court of Appeals Chief Judge (Martin Seat)

John Arrowood – 14% Sabra Faires Patricia "Tricia" Shields

Betsy Bunting Abe Jones Elizabeth Davenport Scott

Lori G. Christian Ann Kirby John M. Tyson – 24%

Jeffrey Cook Keischa Lovelace Marion Warren

J. Brad Donovan Marty Martin Chuck Winfree

Daniel Patrick Donahue Hunter Murphy Valerie Johnson Zachary

Joseph "Jody" Newsome

2014 US Congress CVB Map

Congressional Races – 2014 Winners

Strong DEM Lean DEM Competitive Lean REP Strong REP

12 - Adams* 7 - D. Rouser* 9 - R. Pittenger

1 - G. Butterfield 8 - R. Hudson 11 - M. Meadows

4 - D. Price 3 - W. Jones 5 - V. Foxx

13 - G. Holding 10 - P. McHenry

6 - M. Walker*

2 - R. Ellmers

3 DEM - 10 REP *freshman members = 3

US Congress

Clay Aiken

Entertainer

41%

Renee Ellmers

Incumbent

59%

NC 2 CVB: Strong REP

Laura Fjeld

Fmr. General Counsel

41%

Mark Walker

Pastor

59%

NC 6 CVB: Strong REP

US Congress

Jonathan Barfield

New Hanover Co.

Comm.

37%

David Rouzer

Consultant

59%

Wesley Casteen

Attorney/ CPA

4%

NC 7 CVB: Lean REP

NC 7

2014 NC Senate CVB Map

2015 Partisan Control of NC Senate Districts

NC Senate CVB BreakdownStrong DEM Lean DEM Competitive Lean REP Strong REP

28 - G. Robinson 3 - E. Smith-Ingram* 19 - W. Meredith 25 – T. McInnis* 45 - D. Soucek 29 - J. Tillman

40 - J. Waddell* 23 - V. Foushee 18 - C. Barefoot 15 - J. Alexander* 50 - J. Davis 30 – S. Randleman

38 - J. Ford 5 - D. Davis 1 - B. Cook 9 - M. Lee* 46 - W. Daniel 33 – S. Bingham

20 - F. McKissick 13 - J. Smith* 8 - B. Rabon 41 - J. Tarte 35 - T. Tucker

14 - D. Blue 22 - M. Woodard 17 - T. Barringer 26 - P. Berger 42 - A. Wells*

4 - A. Bryant 37 - J. Jackson** 10 - B. Jackson 6 - H. Brown 44 - D. Curtis

21 - B. Clark 16 - J. Stein 12 - R. Rabin 24 - R. Gunn 31 - J. Krawiec

32 - E. Parmon 49 - T. Van Duyn** 27 - T. Wade 7 - L. Pate 34 - A. Brock

11 - B. Newton 47 - R. Hise 43 - K. Harrington

48 - T. Apodaca 39 - B. Rucho

2 - N. Sanderson 36 - F. Hartsell

16 DEM - 34 REP *freshmen members = 7

Partisan Balance of Power – NC Senate

12 = already winners

12 = incumbents in SR districts

4 = incumbents in LR districts

2 = open seats in LR districts

1 = challenge to DEM in LR district (+1)

3 = incumbents in COMP districts

1634

NC Senate – Open Seat Races

Elizabeth Redenbaug

h

Fmr. New Hanover BOE

44%

Michael Lee

Attorney

56%

Jane Smith

Retired Realtor

63%

Bernard White

Small Business Owner

37%

SD 9 CVB: Lean REP SD 13 CVB: Strong DEM

NC Senate – Open Seat Races

Tom Bradshaw

Fmr. Raleigh Mayor

49.6%

John Alexander

Business Owner

50.4%

Joyce Waddell

Educator

WINNER

No Opponent

SD 15 CVB: Lean REP SD 40 CVB: Strong DEM

NC Senate – Races of Notes

Stan White

Realtor

47%

Bill Cook

Incumbent

’13 LBR: 78.59

53%

Ernie Ward

Veterinarian

43%

Bill Rabon

Incumbent

‘13 LBR: 82.03

57%

SD 1 CVB: Competitive SD 8 CVB: Lean REP

NC Senate – Races of Note

Donald Rains

Mayor of Princeton

38%

Brent Jackson

Incumbent

‘13 LBR: 88.06

62%

Sarah Crawford

Non-Profit Executive

47%

Chad Barefoot

Incumbent

‘13 LBR: 83.11

53%

SD 10 CVB: Lean REP SD 18 CVB: Competitive

NC Senate – Races To Watch

Billy Richardso

n

Attorney

46%

Wesley Meredith

Incumbent

‘13 LBR: 80.00

54%

SD 19 CVB: Competitive

Gene McLaurin

Incumbent

‘13 LBR: 80.28

47%

Tom McInnis


50%

P.H. Dawkins

3%

SD 25 CVB: Lean REP

SD 25

NC Senate – Races of Note

Jane Hipps

Retired Educator

46%

Jim Davis

Incumbent

‘13 LBR: 84.31

54%

SD 50 CVB: Strong REP

2014 NC House CVB Map

2015 Partisan Control of NC House Districts

NC House CVB BreakdownStrong DEM Lean DEM Competitive Lean REP Strong REP

29 - L. Hall 50 - G. Meyer 66 - K. Goodman 119 - J. Queen 118 - M. Presnell 109 - D. Bumgardner 90 - S. Stevens 78 - A. McNeill

106 - C. Cunnigham 39 - D. Jackson 46 - K. Waddell 2 - L. Yarborough* 6 - P. Tine 19 - T. Davis Jr. 117 - C. McGrady 70 - P. Hurley

102 - B. Carney 12 - G. Graham 54 - R. Reives II 22 - W. Brisson 9 - B. Brown 61 - J. Faircloth 84 - R. Turner 80 - R. Younts

31 - M. Michaux 11 - D. Hall 44 - R. Glazier 92 - C. Jeter 63 - S. Ross 59 - J. Hardister 28 - J. Langdon 73 - L. Zachary*

99 - R. Moore 34 - G. Martin 115 – J. Ager* 93 - J. Jordan 111 - T. Moore 52 - J. Boles 85 - J. Dobson

33 - R. Gill 7 - B. Richardson 41 - G. Adcock* 51 - B. Salmon* 104 - D. Bishop* 10 - J. Bell 97 - J. Saine

38 - Y. Holley 18 - S. Hamilton 45 - J. Szoka 40 - M. Avila 26 - L. Daughtry 83 - L. Johnson 79 - J. Howard

107 - K. Alexander 21 - L. Bell 8 - S. Martin 53 - D. Lewis 25 - J. Collins 105 - J. Schaffer 89 - M. Setzer

60 - C. Brockman* 23 - S. Willingham* 49 - G. Pendleton** 35 - C. Malone 86 - H. Blackwell 17 - F. Iler 95 - J. Fraley*

58 - R. Johnson* 72 - E. Hanes 36 - N. Dollar 75 - D. Lambeth 77 - Warren 94 - J. Elmore

56 - V. Insko 43 - E. Floyd 65 - B. Jones 55 - M. Brody 112 - M. Hager 68 - C. Horn

24 - J. Butterfield 47 - C. Graham 116 - B. Turner* 37 - P. Stam 4 - J. Dixon 87 - E. Starnes

57 - P. Harrison 32 - N. Baskerville 1 - B. Steinburg 103 - B. Brawley 91 - B. Holloway 13 - P. McElraft

71 - E. Terry 30 - P. Luebke 14 - G. Cleveland 113 - C. Whitmire 69 - D. Arp

101 - B. Earle 5 - H. Hunter III* 88 - R. Bryan 110 - K. Hastings 76 - C. Ford

48 - G. Pierce 82 - L. Pittman 74 - D. Conrad 81 - R. Brown

114 - S. Fisher 64 - D. Riddell 16 - C. Millis 67 - J. Burr

42 - M. Lucas 3 - M. Speciale 20 - R. Catlin 120 - R. West

100 - T. Cotham 62 - J. Blust 15 - P. Shepard 96 - J. Adams*

27 - M. Wray 98 - J. Bradford* 108 - J. Torbett

46 DEM - 74 REP *freshmen members = 14

Partisan Balance of Power – NC House

• 31 = already winners

• 25 = incumbents in SR districts

• 3 = open seats in SR districts

• 12 = incumbents in LR districts (+2)

• 1 = challenge to DEM in LR district

• 4 = incumbents in COMP districts (+2)

• 2 = open seats in COMP districts (+1)

46

74

NC House – Open Seat Races

Ray Jeffers

Person Co. Commissioner

43%

Larry Yarboroug

h

Businessman

57%

HD 2 CVB: Competitive

Ralph Johnson

Greensboro Zoning Comm.

WINNER

No Opponent

HD 58 CVB: Strong DEM

HD 2


Cecil Brockman

Consultant

WINNER

No Opponent

HD 60 CVB: Strong DEM

No Opponent

Lee Zachary

Attorney

WINNER

HD 73 CVB: Strong REP


Cliff Moone

Part-Time Professor

33%

Jay Adams

Commercial Realtor

67%


Natasha Marcus

Attorney

45%

John Bradford

Engineer

55%



Dan Bishop

Attorney

75%

Eric Cable

Financial Services

25%


NC House – Races of Note

Garry Meiggs

Camden Co. Commissioner

31%

Bob Steinburg

Incumbent

‘13 LBR: 87.15

69%

Paul Tine

Incumbent

‘13 LBR: 68.10

54%

Mattie Lawson

Activist

46%

HD 1 CVB: Lean REP HD 6 CVB: Lean REP


Brian Mountcastl

e

Small Business

Owner

44%

Chris Malone

Incumbent

‘13 LBR: 83.57

56%

Lisa Baker


46%

Nelson Dollar

Incumbent

‘13 LBR: 88.27

54%



Margaret Broadwell


46%

MarilynAvila

Incumbent

’13 LBR: 88.87

54%

Gale Adcock

Nurse Practitioner

51%

Tom Murry

Incumbent

’13 LBR: 93.44

49%

HD 40 CVB: Lean REP HD 41 CVB: Competitive

HD 41

RickGlazier

Incumbent

‘13 LBR: 36.33

52%

Richard Button

Retired Engineer

48%

HD 44


CVB: Lean DEM


Kim Hanchette

Diabetes Educator

48%

Gary Pendleton


52%


Ken Waddell

Incumbent

‘13 LBR: 57.15

53%

Brenden Jones


47%

HD 46 CVB: Lean DEM


Robin Bradford

Activist

47%

Charles Jeter

Incumbent

‘13 LBR: 86.00

53%


Brad Salmon

Attorney & Farmer

54%

Mike Stone

Incumbent

‘13 LBR: 88.80

46%

HD 51 CVB: Lean REPHD 51


Sue Counts

Ret NC Coop. Ext.

47%

Jonathan Jordan

Incumbent

‘13 LBR: 87.50

53%

John Ager

Farmer/ Land Developer

51%

Nathan Ramsey

Incumbent

‘13 LBR: 88.52

49%

HD 93 CVB: Lean REP HD 115 CVB: Competitive

HD 115


Brian Turner


52%

Tim Moffitt

Incumbent

‘13 LBR: 95.65

48%

Dean Hicks

Yancey Co. Commissioner

49%

Michele Presnell

Incumbent

‘13 LBR: 86.25

51%


HD 116

Joe Sam Queen

Incumbent

‘13 LBR: 32.33

52%

Mike Clampitt

Ret. Firefighter

48%



What we were saying …Significant $ AdvantageNC House GOP = 2:1

NC Senate GOP = 2.7:1

Outside Moneyin US Senate, Judicial,Key Legislative Races

Congressional RacesNC7 Likely Goes R

NC2 & NC6 Likely Stay RNC12 Likely Stays D

US Senate = Tight, Likely toBreak R Near the End

Seems Very LikelyNC General Assembly Remains RSeems Likely +/- Current Numbers

What did we learn from 2014Outside money matters … has eclipsed candidates and campaigns

Candidates matter a lot … especially in the suburbs

North Carolina’s politics is indeed nationalized,but local issues still (and probably always will) matter

The marketing of accomplishments matters,especially if the other side has a lot of $$$

Even celebrities must reflect the voters of the district

2016 Elections have begunNext up: Select Speaker - Do NC House Outcomes Impact Choices?

Do Governor and Legislative Leaders Find a Way to Get Along?

2016 - Triple Full Moon: President (PRIMARY), Senate, Governor

Other legislative, statewide, Congressional open seats?

2016 Likely To See Large Sums of Outside Money (Again)

Suburban Districts Continue To Grow, Become More PURPLE

Sponsorships available

2014 Election Updates & Insights

Thank you for your support!

Joe StewartExecutive [email protected]

(919) 614-0520

Government & Nonprofit

Post-Election Briefing from the NC FreeEnterprise Foundation