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Infigen Energy 28 July 2015 Opportunities for wind energy in NSW NSW Resources and Energy Investment Conference Presenter: Miles George, Managing Director For further information please contact: Richard Farrell, Group Manager, Investor Relations and Strategy +61 2 8031 9901 [email protected]

Opportunities for wind energy in NSW

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Page 1: Opportunities for wind energy in NSW

Infigen Energy

28 July 2015

Opportunities for wind energy in NSW NSW Resources and Energy Investment Conference

Presenter: Miles George, Managing Director

For further information please contact: Richard Farrell, Group Manager, Investor Relations and Strategy +61 2 8031 9901 [email protected]

Page 2: Opportunities for wind energy in NSW

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Infigen Energy Australia overview

• Largest owner of wind energy capacity

in Australia, owning and operating over 556MW of wind energy

• Development pipeline of over 1200MW of wind and solar PV projects with planning approvals

• Development, asset management and energy markets capabilities

• Sydney HQ; ASX listed (ASX:IFN) • Market Capitalisation: $215m (@

23/07/2015)

• Recently announced the sale of US operating wind business and US solar PV development pipeline

Australian Wind Farm Owners (operating MW)1

1. Ecogeneration and company Websites (2015).

Infigen Energy 14%

Trustpower 9%

AGL 8%

Hydro Tas 8%

Pacific Hydro

8% Acciona 6%

Malakoff 5%

UBS IIF/REST 5%

Meridian 5%

Goldwind/Jingeng

4%

Infrastructure Capital Group

4%

Energy Infrastructure Investments

3%

Wind Prospects 3%

Banco Santander/Blue

NRG 3% Mitsui

3% Others 13%

Page 3: Opportunities for wind energy in NSW

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Location: New South Wales Status: Operational November 2009 Installed Capacity: 140.7MW Turbine: 67 Suzlon 2.1MW S88

Location: Western Australia Status: Operational January 2006 Installed Capacity: 89.1MW Turbine: 54 NEG Micon NM82

Location: South Australia Status: Operational March 2005 Installed Capacity: 80.5MW Turbine: 46 Vestas V66

Location: South Australia Status: Operational September 2008 Installed Capacity: 159.0MW Turbine: 53 Vestas V90

Location: South Australia Status: Operational June 2010 Installed Capacity: 39.0MW Turbine: 13 Vestas V90

Location: New South Wales Status: Operational October 2011 Installed Capacity: 48.3MW Turbine: Suzlon 2.1MW S88

Australia's leading wind energy developer and operator Operating Australian wind assets

ALINTA

LAKE BONNEY 2

LAKE BONNEY 1

LAKE BONNEY 3

WOODLAWN

CAPITAL

Page 4: Opportunities for wind energy in NSW

Development pipeline

4

Wind Farm Location Capacity (MW) Planning Status

Connection Status

Bodangora NSW 90-100 Approved Advanced

Capital 2 NSW 90-100 Approved Advanced

Flyers Creek NSW 100-115 Approved Intermediate

Cherry Tree VIC 35-40 Approved Intermediate

Forsayth QLD 60-75 Approved Intermediate

Walkaway 2&3* WA ~400 Approved Intermediate

Woakwine SA ~450 Approved Intermediate

Total 1,230 –1,280

* Infigen has a 32% equity interest

Advanced wind and solar development pipeline with planning approvals in place

Solar Farm Location Capacity (MW) Planning Status

Connection Status

Capital NSW 50 Approved Advanced

Cloncurry QLD 6 Early Early

Manildra NSW 50 Approved Advanced

Total 207

Page 5: Opportunities for wind energy in NSW

NSW electricity supply/demand

5

New wind capacity can assist with meeting growing NSW demand and replacing ageing coal plant

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Existing Committed Announced 2018 Demand

Gen

erat

ion

Capa

city

(MW

)

NSW exisitng and potential supply by fuelSolar

Wind

Biomass

Other

Hydro

Gas

Coal

AEMO National Electricity Forecasting Report (2015)

AEMO Electricity Statement Of Opportunities (2014)

Page 6: Opportunities for wind energy in NSW

Ageing, inefficient, highly carbon intensive

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Climate Council: Australia’s Electricity Sector: Ageing, Inefficient and Unprepared

Currently no credible plans to significantly reduce coal fired power generation emissions

Australia's generation sector accounts for one third of Australia's carbon emissions. An ageing fleet of inefficient and highly carbon intensive coal fired generators needs an appropriate signal to exit the market. NSW coal fired generators are only slightly younger and less carbon intensive than brown coal fired generators in Victoria and South Australia (eg Liddell 43 years old and ~1.1 tonnes CO2/MWh) Replacing Australia’s old and inefficient coal fired plant with renewable energy generation is one of the most effective ways to reduce electricity sector emissions.

Page 7: Opportunities for wind energy in NSW

NSW – renewable energy statistics

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Climate Council: The Australian Renewable Energy race: Which States are winning or losing?

The Climate Council recently published a state by state analysis of renewable energy deployment in Australia to December 2013. The analysis shows NSW having a large share of renewable energy generation capacity but this is primarily hydro plant built many decades ago that produces little energy. NSW share of new renewable energy generation expressed in energy terms is low at 7% of Australia’s total renewable energy generation.

Page 8: Opportunities for wind energy in NSW

NSW has failed to capture its RET share to date

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Clean Energy Council: Clean Energy Australia Report 2014

More recent figures from the Clean Energy Council show similar results. NSW had the second lowest level of renewable energy generation of all states in 2014, and the lowest share of renewable energy generation of all states. At the end of 2014 NSW had 450 MW of installed wind capacity – about 12% of Australia’s total and less than a third of South Australia’s capacity. By contrast South Australia has built its renewable energy capacity from next to nothing before the RET scheme was introduced in 2001 to a 40% share of generation in 2014. South Australia has capitalised on its natural wind energy resources to generate much needed regional investment and jobs, whilst NSW has seriously lagged behind other states.

Page 9: Opportunities for wind energy in NSW

…but the future opportunities are strong

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State Demand Growth System capacity for new wind

Wind Resource Electricity prices Planning conditions

NSW Fair Good Good Fair Fair Victoria Fair Good Very Good Poor Improving Queensland Good Excellent Fair/Poor Good Good South Australia Poor Poor Excellent Good Good Western Australia Fair Fair Excellent Good Good

Tasmania Poor Poor Excellent Fair Good

NSW now has a government that is supportive of wind energy investments. There is plenty of system capacity for new wind and a strong wind resource is available. Minister Roberts stated yesterday that nearly 3000 MW of renewable energy projects have planning approvals in place - with wind farms representing the largest proportion of projects. Approximately half of the total investment in a new wind farm goes into Australian goods and services, creating growth and employment opportunities in regional areas where it is needed most.

Page 10: Opportunities for wind energy in NSW

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Targ

et (G

Wh

or x

1,00

0 LG

Cs)

Existing supply Committed supply Annual deficits prior to new build Legislated targets Cumulative surplus

LRET: changing Australia’s electricity generation mix Bipartisan support of the amended RET will restore much needed investment certainty

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• The surplus of large-scale generation certificates created in 2010 will be largely eliminated by 2017. • Annual RET targets rise substantially from 2016 creating a legislated demand for new investment. • This is expected to result in a requirement for around 5-6000 MW of new renewable energy capacity to be installed

between now and 2020. • It takes around two years for a large wind farm to be built and ramp up to full operation from the point of

commitment. • Obligated parties face stiff penalties and adverse customer reactions if they don’t take appropriate action to avoid

breaking the law.

Surplus resulting from generous State residential solar incentives

Source: Green Energy Markets, 2014 and Clean Energy Regulator, 2015

Page 11: Opportunities for wind energy in NSW

…with market prices supporting new build economics

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40.6 42.6 45.1

57.1 57.4 57.9

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

2015 2016 2017

Bun

dled

Pric

e $/

MW

h

NSW Base Electricity Futures LGC Forward Price

NSW Bundled Prices • The best wind projects will be built for

~$80/MWh

• The average wind project will require ~$90-$100/MWh

Source: ASX Energy, Mercari, July 2015

Page 12: Opportunities for wind energy in NSW

Will there be more wind generation built post LRET?

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Australian Energy Technology Assessment (AETA) 2012 - Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE)

Wind is expected to be one of the lowest cost electricity technologies by 2030

• Renewable technologies are expected to be the cost leaders towards the end of the decade.

• The AETA cost estimates suggest that Australia’s electricity generation mix out to 2050 is likely to be very different to the current technology mix.

• LCOE includes where relevant allowance for: carbon price, CO2 transport and sequestration cost, plant capital cost (EPC basis) within battery limits, owners costs excluding interest during construction, fixed and variable operating costs, fuel costs and economic escalation factors.

Source: Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, 2012

Page 13: Opportunities for wind energy in NSW

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Annual Energy Outlook - Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE)

If Australia follows the US, wind will become one of the lowest cost energy providers

Source: US Energy Information Administration, June 2015

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Conventional Coal Advanced Coal Advanced Coalwith CCS

CCGT CCGT with CCS Wind Solar PV

US$

/MW

h

• The most up-to-date LCOE information available is from the United States Energy Information Administration

• Wind is already one of the cost leaders in that country

• LCOE includes where relevant allowance for: carbon price, CO2 transport and sequestration cost, plant capital cost (EPC basis) within battery limits, owners costs excluding interest during construction, fixed and variable operating costs, fuel costs and economic escalation factors

Will there be more wind generation built post LRET?

Page 14: Opportunities for wind energy in NSW

Wind power

14

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Meg

awat

ts

NEM fuel mix (exc household solar), 25/07/2015

Biomass Black Coal Brown Coal Gas Hydro Liquid Fuel Large Solar Wind

Top five wind power days on the NEM

(MWh per day)

25/07/2015 70,558 10/05/2015 68,799 8/06/2015 66,559

Average NEM power met by wind on 25/07: 13.5%

Max wind output occurred at 20:10: 3,378 megawatts

For the first time wind output on Saturday produced more than 70,000 MWh in a single day

Source: AEMO, July 2015, by Ketan Joshi - @Ketanj0

Page 15: Opportunities for wind energy in NSW

Australian Wind Farm Open Day, 11 October 2015

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www.runwiththewind.com.au

Page 16: Opportunities for wind energy in NSW

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Questions Questions

Page 17: Opportunities for wind energy in NSW

Disclaimer

This publication is issued by Infigen Energy Limited (“IEL”), Infigen Energy (Bermuda) Limited (“IEBL”) and Infigen Energy Trust (“IET”), with Infigen Energy RE Limited (“IERL”) as responsible entity of IET (collectively “Infigen”). Infigen and its related entities, directors, officers and employees (collectively “Infigen Entities”) do not accept, and expressly disclaim, any liability whatsoever (including for negligence) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this publication or its contents. This publication is not intended to constitute legal, tax or accounting advice or opinion. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or thoroughness of the content of the information. The recipient should consult with its own legal, tax or accounting advisers as to the accuracy and application of the information contained herein and should conduct its own due diligence and other enquiries in relation to such information. The information in this presentation has not been independently verified by the Infigen Entities. The Infigen Entities disclaim any responsibility for any errors or omissions in such information, including the financial calculations, projections and forecasts. No representation or warranty is made by or on behalf of the Infigen Entities that any projection, forecast, calculation, forward-looking statement, assumption or estimate contained in this presentation should or will be achieved. None of the Infigen Entities guarantee the performance of Infigen, the repayment of capital or a particular rate of return on Infigen Stapled Securities. IEL and IEBL are not licensed to provide financial product advice. This publication is for general information only and does not constitute financial product advice, including personal financial product advice, or an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect of securities, by IEL, IEBL or any other Infigen Entities. Please note that, in providing this presentation, the Infigen Entities have not considered the objectives, financial position or needs of the recipient. The recipient should obtain and rely on its own professional advice from its tax, legal, accounting and other professional advisers in respect of the recipient’s objectives, financial position or needs. This presentation does not carry any right of publication. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be reproduced or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of the Infigen Entities. IMPORTANT NOTICE Nothing in this presentation should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy Infigen securities in the United States or any other jurisdiction. Securities may not be offered or sold in the United States or to, or for the account or benefit of, US persons (as such term is defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act of 1933) unless they are registered under the Securities Act or exempt from registration.

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