Upload
nsw-resources-energy
View
203
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Infigen Energy
28 July 2015
Opportunities for wind energy in NSW NSW Resources and Energy Investment Conference
Presenter: Miles George, Managing Director
For further information please contact: Richard Farrell, Group Manager, Investor Relations and Strategy +61 2 8031 9901 [email protected]
2
Infigen Energy Australia overview
• Largest owner of wind energy capacity
in Australia, owning and operating over 556MW of wind energy
• Development pipeline of over 1200MW of wind and solar PV projects with planning approvals
• Development, asset management and energy markets capabilities
• Sydney HQ; ASX listed (ASX:IFN) • Market Capitalisation: $215m (@
23/07/2015)
• Recently announced the sale of US operating wind business and US solar PV development pipeline
Australian Wind Farm Owners (operating MW)1
1. Ecogeneration and company Websites (2015).
Infigen Energy 14%
Trustpower 9%
AGL 8%
Hydro Tas 8%
Pacific Hydro
8% Acciona 6%
Malakoff 5%
UBS IIF/REST 5%
Meridian 5%
Goldwind/Jingeng
4%
Infrastructure Capital Group
4%
Energy Infrastructure Investments
3%
Wind Prospects 3%
Banco Santander/Blue
NRG 3% Mitsui
3% Others 13%
3
Location: New South Wales Status: Operational November 2009 Installed Capacity: 140.7MW Turbine: 67 Suzlon 2.1MW S88
Location: Western Australia Status: Operational January 2006 Installed Capacity: 89.1MW Turbine: 54 NEG Micon NM82
Location: South Australia Status: Operational March 2005 Installed Capacity: 80.5MW Turbine: 46 Vestas V66
Location: South Australia Status: Operational September 2008 Installed Capacity: 159.0MW Turbine: 53 Vestas V90
Location: South Australia Status: Operational June 2010 Installed Capacity: 39.0MW Turbine: 13 Vestas V90
Location: New South Wales Status: Operational October 2011 Installed Capacity: 48.3MW Turbine: Suzlon 2.1MW S88
Australia's leading wind energy developer and operator Operating Australian wind assets
ALINTA
LAKE BONNEY 2
LAKE BONNEY 1
LAKE BONNEY 3
WOODLAWN
CAPITAL
Development pipeline
4
Wind Farm Location Capacity (MW) Planning Status
Connection Status
Bodangora NSW 90-100 Approved Advanced
Capital 2 NSW 90-100 Approved Advanced
Flyers Creek NSW 100-115 Approved Intermediate
Cherry Tree VIC 35-40 Approved Intermediate
Forsayth QLD 60-75 Approved Intermediate
Walkaway 2&3* WA ~400 Approved Intermediate
Woakwine SA ~450 Approved Intermediate
Total 1,230 –1,280
* Infigen has a 32% equity interest
Advanced wind and solar development pipeline with planning approvals in place
Solar Farm Location Capacity (MW) Planning Status
Connection Status
Capital NSW 50 Approved Advanced
Cloncurry QLD 6 Early Early
Manildra NSW 50 Approved Advanced
Total 207
NSW electricity supply/demand
5
New wind capacity can assist with meeting growing NSW demand and replacing ageing coal plant
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Existing Committed Announced 2018 Demand
Gen
erat
ion
Capa
city
(MW
)
NSW exisitng and potential supply by fuelSolar
Wind
Biomass
Other
Hydro
Gas
Coal
AEMO National Electricity Forecasting Report (2015)
AEMO Electricity Statement Of Opportunities (2014)
Ageing, inefficient, highly carbon intensive
6
Climate Council: Australia’s Electricity Sector: Ageing, Inefficient and Unprepared
Currently no credible plans to significantly reduce coal fired power generation emissions
Australia's generation sector accounts for one third of Australia's carbon emissions. An ageing fleet of inefficient and highly carbon intensive coal fired generators needs an appropriate signal to exit the market. NSW coal fired generators are only slightly younger and less carbon intensive than brown coal fired generators in Victoria and South Australia (eg Liddell 43 years old and ~1.1 tonnes CO2/MWh) Replacing Australia’s old and inefficient coal fired plant with renewable energy generation is one of the most effective ways to reduce electricity sector emissions.
NSW – renewable energy statistics
7
Climate Council: The Australian Renewable Energy race: Which States are winning or losing?
The Climate Council recently published a state by state analysis of renewable energy deployment in Australia to December 2013. The analysis shows NSW having a large share of renewable energy generation capacity but this is primarily hydro plant built many decades ago that produces little energy. NSW share of new renewable energy generation expressed in energy terms is low at 7% of Australia’s total renewable energy generation.
NSW has failed to capture its RET share to date
8
Clean Energy Council: Clean Energy Australia Report 2014
More recent figures from the Clean Energy Council show similar results. NSW had the second lowest level of renewable energy generation of all states in 2014, and the lowest share of renewable energy generation of all states. At the end of 2014 NSW had 450 MW of installed wind capacity – about 12% of Australia’s total and less than a third of South Australia’s capacity. By contrast South Australia has built its renewable energy capacity from next to nothing before the RET scheme was introduced in 2001 to a 40% share of generation in 2014. South Australia has capitalised on its natural wind energy resources to generate much needed regional investment and jobs, whilst NSW has seriously lagged behind other states.
…but the future opportunities are strong
9
State Demand Growth System capacity for new wind
Wind Resource Electricity prices Planning conditions
NSW Fair Good Good Fair Fair Victoria Fair Good Very Good Poor Improving Queensland Good Excellent Fair/Poor Good Good South Australia Poor Poor Excellent Good Good Western Australia Fair Fair Excellent Good Good
Tasmania Poor Poor Excellent Fair Good
NSW now has a government that is supportive of wind energy investments. There is plenty of system capacity for new wind and a strong wind resource is available. Minister Roberts stated yesterday that nearly 3000 MW of renewable energy projects have planning approvals in place - with wind farms representing the largest proportion of projects. Approximately half of the total investment in a new wind farm goes into Australian goods and services, creating growth and employment opportunities in regional areas where it is needed most.
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Targ
et (G
Wh
or x
1,00
0 LG
Cs)
Existing supply Committed supply Annual deficits prior to new build Legislated targets Cumulative surplus
LRET: changing Australia’s electricity generation mix Bipartisan support of the amended RET will restore much needed investment certainty
10
• The surplus of large-scale generation certificates created in 2010 will be largely eliminated by 2017. • Annual RET targets rise substantially from 2016 creating a legislated demand for new investment. • This is expected to result in a requirement for around 5-6000 MW of new renewable energy capacity to be installed
between now and 2020. • It takes around two years for a large wind farm to be built and ramp up to full operation from the point of
commitment. • Obligated parties face stiff penalties and adverse customer reactions if they don’t take appropriate action to avoid
breaking the law.
Surplus resulting from generous State residential solar incentives
Source: Green Energy Markets, 2014 and Clean Energy Regulator, 2015
…with market prices supporting new build economics
11
40.6 42.6 45.1
57.1 57.4 57.9
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
2015 2016 2017
Bun
dled
Pric
e $/
MW
h
NSW Base Electricity Futures LGC Forward Price
NSW Bundled Prices • The best wind projects will be built for
~$80/MWh
• The average wind project will require ~$90-$100/MWh
Source: ASX Energy, Mercari, July 2015
Will there be more wind generation built post LRET?
12
Australian Energy Technology Assessment (AETA) 2012 - Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE)
Wind is expected to be one of the lowest cost electricity technologies by 2030
• Renewable technologies are expected to be the cost leaders towards the end of the decade.
• The AETA cost estimates suggest that Australia’s electricity generation mix out to 2050 is likely to be very different to the current technology mix.
• LCOE includes where relevant allowance for: carbon price, CO2 transport and sequestration cost, plant capital cost (EPC basis) within battery limits, owners costs excluding interest during construction, fixed and variable operating costs, fuel costs and economic escalation factors.
Source: Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, 2012
13
Annual Energy Outlook - Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE)
If Australia follows the US, wind will become one of the lowest cost energy providers
Source: US Energy Information Administration, June 2015
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Conventional Coal Advanced Coal Advanced Coalwith CCS
CCGT CCGT with CCS Wind Solar PV
US$
/MW
h
• The most up-to-date LCOE information available is from the United States Energy Information Administration
• Wind is already one of the cost leaders in that country
• LCOE includes where relevant allowance for: carbon price, CO2 transport and sequestration cost, plant capital cost (EPC basis) within battery limits, owners costs excluding interest during construction, fixed and variable operating costs, fuel costs and economic escalation factors
Will there be more wind generation built post LRET?
Wind power
14
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Meg
awat
ts
NEM fuel mix (exc household solar), 25/07/2015
Biomass Black Coal Brown Coal Gas Hydro Liquid Fuel Large Solar Wind
Top five wind power days on the NEM
(MWh per day)
25/07/2015 70,558 10/05/2015 68,799 8/06/2015 66,559
Average NEM power met by wind on 25/07: 13.5%
Max wind output occurred at 20:10: 3,378 megawatts
For the first time wind output on Saturday produced more than 70,000 MWh in a single day
Source: AEMO, July 2015, by Ketan Joshi - @Ketanj0
Australian Wind Farm Open Day, 11 October 2015
15
www.runwiththewind.com.au
16
Questions Questions
Disclaimer
This publication is issued by Infigen Energy Limited (“IEL”), Infigen Energy (Bermuda) Limited (“IEBL”) and Infigen Energy Trust (“IET”), with Infigen Energy RE Limited (“IERL”) as responsible entity of IET (collectively “Infigen”). Infigen and its related entities, directors, officers and employees (collectively “Infigen Entities”) do not accept, and expressly disclaim, any liability whatsoever (including for negligence) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this publication or its contents. This publication is not intended to constitute legal, tax or accounting advice or opinion. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or thoroughness of the content of the information. The recipient should consult with its own legal, tax or accounting advisers as to the accuracy and application of the information contained herein and should conduct its own due diligence and other enquiries in relation to such information. The information in this presentation has not been independently verified by the Infigen Entities. The Infigen Entities disclaim any responsibility for any errors or omissions in such information, including the financial calculations, projections and forecasts. No representation or warranty is made by or on behalf of the Infigen Entities that any projection, forecast, calculation, forward-looking statement, assumption or estimate contained in this presentation should or will be achieved. None of the Infigen Entities guarantee the performance of Infigen, the repayment of capital or a particular rate of return on Infigen Stapled Securities. IEL and IEBL are not licensed to provide financial product advice. This publication is for general information only and does not constitute financial product advice, including personal financial product advice, or an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect of securities, by IEL, IEBL or any other Infigen Entities. Please note that, in providing this presentation, the Infigen Entities have not considered the objectives, financial position or needs of the recipient. The recipient should obtain and rely on its own professional advice from its tax, legal, accounting and other professional advisers in respect of the recipient’s objectives, financial position or needs. This presentation does not carry any right of publication. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be reproduced or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of the Infigen Entities. IMPORTANT NOTICE Nothing in this presentation should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy Infigen securities in the United States or any other jurisdiction. Securities may not be offered or sold in the United States or to, or for the account or benefit of, US persons (as such term is defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act of 1933) unless they are registered under the Securities Act or exempt from registration.
17