26
y No. 38 Published Monthly by: Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd. Chief Editor: Hannah Zhou (Ms.) Research Team: Xu Aidong (Ms) Fan Runze (Mr.) Li Yanyan (Ms.) Liu Yujing (Ms.) Sales Manager: Xiaofei Yang Tel: +86-10-63965283 Fax: +86-10-63971647 Web site: http://www.antaike.com Email:[email protected] Address: 2 nd Floor, 12B Fuxing Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100814, P. R. China Disclaimer: Whilst every effort has been made to prepare this report, Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd. makes no warranty of any kind in regard to the contents and does not accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly, or indirectly, from the use of this report. All Rights Reserved The contents of this report are for the sole use of the client and its employees and may not be transmitted in any form whatsoever to third parties. ©2016 Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd. The Most Essential and Authoritative Source for Chinese Metals Market INSIDE THIS ISSUE China Nickel Apparent Consumption........................................................ 1 China Primary Nickel Supply-Demand Balance Unit: tonne .......... 1 Price Trend Analysis ................................................................................... 2 China Primary Nickel Supply ..................................................................... 6 China Primary Nickel Consumption.......................................................... 8 China Primary Nickel Inventory................................................................. 9 Important Ni Product Import and Export ................................................ 10 Production Cost......................................................................................... 13 China Newly-built NPI projects................................................................ 14 Conclusion ................................................................................................. 15 Outlook ....................................................................................................... 17 News ........................................................................................................... 18 Statistics ..................................................................................................... 23 Jun. 2016 No. 61

Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

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Page 1: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

y No. 38

Published Monthly by:

Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd.

Chief Editor: Hannah Zhou (Ms.)

Research Team:

Xu Aidong (Ms)

Fan Runze (Mr.)

Li Yanyan (Ms.)

Liu Yujing (Ms.)

Sales Manager: Xiaofei Yang

Tel: +86-10-63965283

Fax: +86-10-63971647

Web site: http://www.antaike.com

Email:[email protected]

Address: 2 nd Floor, 12B Fuxing Road, Haidian District,

Beijing 100814, P. R. China

Disclaimer:

Whilst every effort has been made to prepare this report,

Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd. makes no

warranty of any kind in regard to the contents and does not

accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising

directly, or indirectly, from the use of this report.

All Rights Reserved

The contents of this report are for the sole use of the client and

its employees and may not be transmitted in any form

whatsoever to third parties.

©2016 Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd.

The Most Essential and Authoritative Source for

Chinese Metals Market

INSIDE THIS ISSUE

China Nickel Apparent Consumption........................................................ 1

China Primary Nickel Supply-Demand Balance Unit: tonne .......... 1

Price Trend Analysis ................................................................................... 2

China Primary Nickel Supply ..................................................................... 6

China Primary Nickel Consumption .......................................................... 8

China Primary Nickel Inventory ................................................................. 9

Important Ni Product Import and Export ................................................ 10

Production Cost ......................................................................................... 13

China Newly-built NPI projects ................................................................ 14

Conclusion ................................................................................................. 15

Outlook ....................................................................................................... 17

News ........................................................................................................... 18

Statistics ..................................................................................................... 23

Jun. 2016

No. 61

Page 2: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

1

http://www.antaike.com [email protected]

China Nickel Apparent Consumption

China Primary Nickel Supply-Demand Balance Unit: tonne

2014 2015 Jan.2016 Feb. 2016 Mar. 2016 Apr. 2016

Output of Ni Cathode & Utility 218,392 206,731 15,150 14,550 17,600 16,300

Output of Ni Salts 20,000 18,891 2,500 2,300 2,700 2,900

Output of NPI 471,500 385,035 24,950 22,500 27,956 32,659

Output of Primary Nickel 709,892 610,657 42,600 39,400 48,256 51,859

Import 221,000 437,164 46,032 40,631 54,961 64,643

Apparent Supply 930,892 1,047,821 88,632 80,031 103,217 116,502

Export 107,000 22,732 558 198 731 310

Apparent consumption 9,193,892 1,025,089 88,074 79,833 102,486 116,192

Source: Antaike

Note: The Ni output figure is revised by Antaike based on CNIA figure

Imports include refined nickel (99.95%-99.99%), other refined nickel, nickel powders and flakes and FeNi

According to Antaike Statistics, the primary nickel production was 52,000t in April, while import

of nickel products was 64,000t (Ni content), output was 310t. We expect that the apparent nickel

consumption eas 116,000t in April, up by 14% m/m, and totaled at 386,000t in January-April, up

by 37% y/y.

Page 3: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

http://www.antaike.com [email protected] 2

Price Trend Analysis

Source: Antaike

About the low grade Ni and high grade Fe

nickel ore, Ni:0.6-0.8% nickel ore price

maintained sable in May. Ni:0.9-1.1% ore price

rose by 15 yuan/wmt with small transaction

volumes at ports due to low level stocks. A

Shandong plant purchased Ni:0.9%, Fe:49%

ore at 160 yuan/wmt. Some Ni:0.85%, Fe49%

ore was said be traded at 155 yuan/wmt.

Middle and high grade nickel ore remained

stable in May. The decrease of LME 3-month

nickel price and domestic NPI price slide have

seen the decrease in nickel ore price in

Philippine market, but quotations for spot

goods at port remained few. Shandong port

had 10,000t of Ni:1.85% ore being traded at

320 yuan/wmt, slightly lower than market price.

A northern port had Ni:1.56% ore available for

sale at price of 270 yuan/wmt.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

RMB/t China Nickel Ore Price Trend

1.8%-1.9% 2.0%-2.1% 0.9-1.0%

Page 4: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

http://www.antaike.com [email protected] 3

Source: Antaike

In Philippine market, Ni:0.6-0.85 ore

maintained stable with small trading volume.

Ni: 0.9-1.1% ore price decreased by

USD1/wmt. Most of Ni:0.9%, Fe:49% ore were

traded at USD120 FOB/wmt, some were traded

at USD10 FOB/wmt. The Ni:0.9%, Fe:49% ore

at Lianyungang Port and China’s northern ports

were traded at USD18 CIF/wmt.

Middle grade nickel ore price decreased

USD1/wmt in May. Ferronickel plants

substantially lowered buying price of nickel ore

for cost reason following the decrease in the

bidding price for high grade NPI. Ni:1.5% ore

price were concluded at USD31-32 CIF/wmt

earlier in May and some were traded at USD28

CIF/wmt at end of May.

High grade nickel ore price decreased

USD2/wmt in May. The guiding price for

Ni:1.8% ore was not available as Philippines

mines suspended quotations.

0

50

100

150

USD/wmt FOB Trend of Philippine Nickel Ore

1.80% Ni0.6 Fe50 Ni0.9 Fe49

Page 5: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

http://www.antaike.com [email protected] 4

Source: Antaike

In May, the average ex-factory price of high

grade NPI was 753 yuan/nickel unit, up by 38

yuan/nickel unit m/m. The average ex-factory

price of middle grade NPI was 789 yuan/nickel

unit, up by 54 yuan/nickel unit. And low grade

NPI price was 2,140 yuan/t, up by 203 yuan/t

m/m.

TISCO’s bidding price for high grade NPI

was 735 yuan/nickel unit in June, down by 15

yuan/nickel unit m/m, price was higher if

quantity was large. POSCO’s last round of

bidding price was 730-740 yuan/nickel unit,

Delong’s bidding price was determined

according to every single order. Tsingshan

suspended bidding for two months as

Indonesian project shipped back sufficient

ferronickel and is less likely to bid in the future.

Source: Antaike

The average spot price of refined nickel was

68,592 yuan/t, down by 1.4% m/m. JNMC

decreased its ex-factory price of nickel

cathodes by 4,500 yuan/t to 66,500 yuan/t by

the end of May. Premium for spot nickel price

slightly rose to 200-300 yuan/t in end May as

LME 3-month nickel price fell.

50,000

70,000

90,000

110,000

130,000

150,000

170,000

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

RMB/t

RMB/Ni unit

China NPI Price Trend

4-6% NPI (L )

10-15% NPI (L )

Changjiang Cash Ni Price (R )

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000 RMB/t

Refined Nickel Price Gap between LME and SH Changjiang

Gap (LME-SHFE) LME-R

SH Changjiang-R

Page 6: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

http://www.antaike.com [email protected] 5

Source: Antaike

Stainless steel price fell unilaterally in May. It

dropped from 13,200 yuan/t in early May to

11,800 yuan/t at the end of May, with average

price of 12,489 yuan/t, up by 4.1% month on

month. Nickel price declined from $9,400/t to

below $8,400/t during the same period. The

price of 304HR represented the same trend

with CR, with average price of 11,750 yuan/t,

up by 3.7% month on month.

Source: Antaike

Domestic high carbon ferrochrome price

increased greatly in May affected by the tight

market supply. Monthly average factory price in

Inner Mongolia was 5,747 yuan/base t, up by

12.9% month on month.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

RMB/t China CR Stainless Steel Price Trend

430/2B L1/2B 304/2B

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

RMB/t China Ferrochrome Price Trend

Ferrochrome price

Page 7: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

http://www.antaike.com [email protected] 6

Source: Antaike

Both chrome ore and ferrochrome prices

increased significantly. Average price of South

Africa 40-42% chrome concentrate stood at

$156/t in May, up by 47% compared with the

$106/t in April. Turkey 42% lump ore averaged

at $190/t, up by 21% compared with the $157/t

in April.

Domestic chrome ore price followed the

rising overseas price in May. Average price of

South Africa 42% powder ore stood at 28

yuan/mtu in May, up by 6 yuan/mtu compared

with April. Turkey 42% lump ore averaged at 42

yuan/mtu, up by 7 yuan/mtu compared with

April.

China Primary Nickel Supply

Source: Antaike

According to Antaike Statistics, China’s NPI

production was 32,700t (Ni content) in April, up

by 17% m/m but down by 8% y/y, returning

back to 30,000t level after half year. In

particular, the high grade NPI production

reached 24,300t, up by 20% m/m but down by

16% y/y, of which RKEF process was 21,800t,

accounting for 89% of total production, electric

furnace process was 2,500t, up by 4% m/m.

The middle grade NPI production continued

decreasing to 300t. The low grade NPI

production was 8,100t, up by 12% m/m.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

China Chrome Ore Price Trend

South Africa 42% powder ore

Turkey 42% lump ore

RMB/mtu

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

tonne

China Nickel Monthly Output

NPI Ni cathode & utility Ni salt

Page 8: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

http://www.antaike.com [email protected] 7

Source: Antaike

Most of high grade NPI enterprises

maintained stable production, showing that

some large enterprises’ production sharply

increase in March, and there were three to four

producers restarted operation in April with

faster output growth. The operation rate of low

grade NPI increased slightly in April on a

month-on-month basis in Shandong area

where China’s major low grade NPI production

clustered. Besides, some low grade NPI

producers started to produce higher grade

products at Ni:2.5-2.7% .

Stainless steel integrated enterprises’ NPI

production (including high and low grade NPI)

stood at 18,000t in April, accounting for 55% of

NPI production in China, therefore, only

14,700t were left for sale on spot market,

increasing 2,700t than that in March.

In May, the operation rate for high grade

NPI increased by 2% from April to 42%, for

middle grade NPI remained at 3%, and low

grade NPI increased by 3% m/m to 48%. The

prices of middle and grade NPI fell after a mini

rally during May following the destocking of

middle and grade NPI when nickel traders

showed strong wills to reduce inventory.

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3 3.5

4 4.5

5

10kt

China NPI Monthly Ouput

High grade NPI Middle grade NPI Low grade NPI

Page 9: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

http://www.antaike.com [email protected] 8

China Primary Nickel Consumption

Source: Antaike

Notes: 2016 data is forecast data

China’s stainless steel output was 2.06Mt in

April, up by 8.9% year on year and 1.4%

month on month. Of which output of 300 series

was 1.08Mt, up by 9.3% year on year and

0.1% month on month; 400 series 370kt, up by

11.3% year on year and 1.8% month on month;

200 series 610kt, up by 6.9% year on year and

3.5% month on month.

Price rise of raw material was weaker than

stainless steel products in April, so stainless

steel plants had excellent profit. Traders want

to order more from steel mills in hope to

accelerate inventory turnover and gain more

profit; downstream users were also willing to

increase inventory when price increased,

which combined to push up stainless steel

output in April.

The ramp up of high quality capacity will be

accompanied by the elimination of outdated

capacity in 2016 due to the steadily recovered

demand.

It is estimated stainless steel output will

remain high in May.

Note: there are some corrections of

stainless steel output in March: total output

was 2.03Mt, of which 300 series 1.075Mt, 200

series 595kt and 400 series 362kt.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

China Stainless Steel Ratio Output by Various Series

200 series 300 series 400 series 401 series

Page 10: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

http://www.antaike.com [email protected] 9

China Primary Nickel Inventory

Source: Antaike

By the end of May, the total nickel ore

stocks at 12 Chinese ports reached

12,850,000t, increasing 150,000t from end

of April, including 10,900,000t of Philippine

ore, and 1,950,000t of Indonesian ore.

Medium and large scale enterprises mainly

bought Philippines nickel ore futures.

Philippines futures price decreased

following the slide in domestic middle and

high grade NPI prices.

Chrome ore port inventory reached

1.33Mt in late May, down by 150kt

compared with the 1.62Mt in late April, of

which Lianyungang was 330kt, down by

170kt year on year; Tianjin port 630kt, up

by 50kt, Zhanjiang port 120kt, down by

70kt. The low chrome ore inventory was

bad to ferrochrome plants in arranging

production. Chinese buyers became very

passive when price rose. Foreign investors

had the confidence to pull up chrome ore

futures price sharply.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

10kt

China Nickel Ore Stockpile

Tianjin Lianyungang Rizhao

Lanshan Jingtang Yingkou

Tieshan Fangchenggang Caofeidian

Dafeng Dongjiakou Lanqiao

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

China Chrome Ore Stockpile

Lianyungang Zhanjiang Fangcheng

Shanghai Tianjin

Page 11: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

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Important Ni Product Import and Export

Source: Antaike

According to China Customs Statistics,

China imported 1.368mt of nickel ore, down

by 55.6% y/y and down by 8.38% m/m, of

which, Philippine laterite nickel ore was

1.26mt, down by 10% m/m. The nickel or

import totaled 4.53mt in January-April, down

by 34% y/y. Even though Philippines

switched to middle grade nickel ore as major

imported product from previous low grade

nickel ore, most of Philippine mines reduced

supply of middle grade ore as the LME

3-month nickel price lingered below

USD9,000/t for a long time.

The largest nickel ore importers in April

included Fujian Daxing Imp.& Exp. Co., Ltd,

Baosteel Desheng Stainless Steel Co., Ltd,

Hualun Jingchuou Co., Ltd, Beijing

Uni-Construction Logistics Co., Ltd and

Guangxi Fanhai Commerce Co., Ltd in

sequence.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

MT China Nickel Ore Import by Countries

Indonesia Philippines Others

Page 12: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

http://www.antaike.com [email protected] 11

Source: Antaike

The nickel ore ocean freight for China in

May increased from April. Philippines

(Surigao) ocean freight to Lianyungang port

was USD5.7 and to Tianjin port was

USD6.2, while the ocean freight from

Zambales to Lianyungang port was USD4.7

and to Tianjin port was USD5.2.

Source: Antaike

Chinese nickel intermediate products

import totaled 28,781 tonnages in April,

2016,up by 30.6% y-o-y.

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18 USD/wmt

Philippines/Indonesia Ocean Freight for China

North Philippines North Indonesia

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

tonne China Nickel Intermediate Products Import

Page 13: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

http://www.antaike.com [email protected] 12

Source: Antaike

We suggest that the import of refined

nickel is promising in May. According to

China Customs Statistics, China imported

49,000t of unwrought nickel in April, surging

169% over the same period last year, and

the amount totaled at 158,000t in during

January-April, up by 271% y/y. By the end of

May, nickel stocks at China’s bonded

warehouses increased by 6,000t to 81,000t,

and the total stocks in China increased by

nearly 30,000t from April to around

240,000t. Most of imported nickel was not

consumed by downstream enterprises.

Source: Antaike

According to China Customs Statistics,

China imported 107,200t of ferronickel in

April, up by 42.6% y/y and up by 59.1%

m/m. Of the total import 84,000t was

imported from Indonesia, including 82,000t

from Tsingshan project, 8,650t from New

Caledonia, 6,556t from Brazil and 5,042t

from Columbia. Tsingshan project in

Indonesia reached monthly production of

80,000 physical tons since Phase II put into

production in April, which were totally

shipped back to China for the production of

Tsingshan’s enterprises.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

tonne China Refined Nickel Import & Export

Import Export

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

tonne China Ferronickel Import

Page 14: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

http://www.antaike.com [email protected] 13

Source: Antaike

According to China Customs Statistics,

China imported 107,200t of ferronickel in

April, up by 42.6% y/y and up by 59.1%

m/m. Of the total import 84,000t was

imported from Indonesia, including 82,000t

from Tsingshan project, 8,650t from New

Caledonia, 6,556t from Brazil and 5,042t

from Columbia. Tsingshan project in

Indonesia reached monthly production of

80,000 physical tons since Phase II put into

production in April, which were totally

shipped back to China for the production of

Tsingshan’s enterprises.

China exported 349,400t of stainless steel

in April, rising by 4% month on month and

16.5% year on year. Of the export

destination, Taiwan ranked the top with

87,600t, followed by South Korea 55,000t,

Vietnam 35,000t, Italy 26.4kt, India 25.4kt,

and Thailand 21kt.

Production Cost

Source: Antaike

Based on Ni:1.5% ore at 230 yuan/t,

NPI cost in Jiangsu reached USD11,600/t,

equivalent to 958 yuan/nickel unit; Inner

Mongolia NPI cost reached USD10,100/t,

equivalent to 780 yuan/nickel unit.

Shandong RKEF cost (self-generation

power plant) was USD8,850/t, equivalent to

680 yuan/nickel unit. Considering raw

material price and steel mill’s current bidding

price at 735-740 yuan/nickel unit, most of

NPI plants in China began to gain slight

profit.

0 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

10kt

China Stainless Steel Import & Export

Import Export Net export

0 20000 40000 60000 80000

100000 120000 140000 160000 180000

RMB/t China NPI Cost by Regions

Jiangsu Inner Mongolia Fujian RKEF

Page 15: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

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China Newly-built NPI projects

China’s ferronickel projects in Indonesia are expected to produce 104,000t of ferronickel in

2016, increasing 80,000t than that of 2015, thanks to the Phase II of Tsingshan project whose

annual production increased by 56,000t from 2015 to 80,000t in 2016. In April Tsingshan project

shipped 82,000t of ferronickel to China.

Besides, a 300,000t/y ferronickel alloy project in Sulawesi invested by Jiangsu Dafeng Haebor

was being constructed in two phases. Phase I was invested by USD60 million to install traditional

production line with annual capacity of 135,000-150,000t/y, and Phase II was invested by

240million yuan to install independent R&D low temperature reduced new production line to

reach 150,000-157,000t/y capacity.

Page 16: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

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Conclusion

The LME 3-month nickel price snapped a downside shot in May falling from a year-high of

USD9,700/t to USD8,300/t losing all the 10% rise in April in response to series of bad news in

macroeconomic condition, including the frequent Hawkish statement from FED, the great

possibility of raising the interest rate and the increase of USDX. In fundamental conditions, the

stainless steel production ramping up in May is recommended to have limit stimulus in nickel

consumption as the blocked downstream circulation of stainless steel picked up market stocks,

which attracted the focus of attention on supply side rather than demand side, even though

nickel consumption slightly improved when steel mills lowered offer price for destocking. The

LME 3-month price may cease the slump at the end of May when news released that some steel

mills would idle for maintenance.

The LME stocks declined 14,694t from 427,438t in end April to 402,744t at the end of May.

While SHFE stocks increased by 12,604t to 96,491t during the same period. An obvious material

movement from LME to SHFE stood total amount at 499,235t only 2,090t decreased. Most of the

transfer was Norilsk refined nickel that occupied almost all of LME warehouses previously and

now declined to 40% since it was deliverable against SHFE contract without premium and

discount. Currently most of SHFE stocks are Norilsk nickel.

According to statistics data from foreign institution, global nickel stocks reached about

1,000,000t including registered warehouse stocks at Exchanges and other stocks, which could

afford six-month consumption. Therefore, given NPI plants’ curtailment contributed into shortage

of supply and demand from stainless steel market was strong, the high nickel inventory will delay

the rally of nickel market to 2017. We are expecting that nickel price will move at lower bottom in

the coming seasonal slack period.

Premium for imported refined nickel maintained stable, but the growing anticipation of

the appreciation of U.S dollars that further exacerbated the depreciation anticipation of

China Yuan substantially dragged down the medial rate of Yuan against U.S dallar by

300 point, hitting a five-year new low, which may sharpen the capital outflows or help

narrow the loss of imported nickel.

JNMC’s refined nickel production decreased by 1,000-1,500t m/m in April and the

downward trend continued in May due to the tightness in ore supply. Xinjiang Xinxi

Mining Co., Ltd had stable production at about 900t in May, similar with that in April.

Xinxin conducted maintenance since end May and expected to finish in end July.

By the end of May, domestic NPI stocks stood at 15,000t (Ni content), decreasing 500t

from April, of which high grade NPI stocks were 13,400t, down by 100t m/m, middle

grade NPI stocks were 1,400t, down by 400t m/m, and low grade NPI stocks remained

Page 17: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

http://www.antaike.com [email protected] 16

stable at 200t.

By the mid of May, stainless steel inventory on Wuxi and Foshan markets, the main

two transaction markets in China, amounted to 314,000t, down by 12.8% year on year, of

which 300 series was 226,600t, up by 9.6% year on year; 200 series 45,200t, rising by

19.9% year on year; 400 series 42,200t, increasing by 23.8% year on year. Proportion of

the above three products was 72%, 14% and 14% respectively.

Ferrochrome output was 1.13Mt during the first four months, down by 6.6% year on

year; total import was 750kt, down by 17% year on year; stainless steel output was

7.35Mt during Jan.-Apr., up by 5.3% year on year, of which 300 series output was 3.77Mt,

up by 9% year on year. 300 series consumed more ferrochrome compared with 200

series and 400 series. Total ferrochrome consumption was 2.19Mt. Antaike calculates

ferrochrome shortage is 240kt, and inventory was 260kt during Jan.-Apr. Market was in

severe unbalance in May.

Although ferrochrome output increased by 15% month on month in May, the demand

gap was filled by import. It is predicted market will become calm in June.

China imported 164,800t of high carbon ferrochrome in April, down by 29% month on

month, according to Customs.

A stainless steel plant in south region just imported 6,000t, equivalent to just 1/10 of

the amount in March, all from Zimbabwe. It is reported that there was port congestion in

South Africa, thus materials from the country will be delayed. Import of TISCO was 24kt,

all from Kazakhstan; LISCO imported 31,500t, all from South Africa; POSCO

(Zhangjiagang) imported 10,000t, both from India and South Africa; Fujian Xingda’s over

40kt was from South Africa and India.

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Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

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Outlook

According to statistics, the shipment from Philippines substantially increased to more

than 100 ships in May. The import of nickel ore will increase on a month-on-month basis.

High grade NPI output was reduced by about 50% as stainless steel mills and NPI

plants temporally shut down for electricity upgrading in Yangjiang Region that will last for

20 days. But some large enterprises may increase production combining with those who

resumed production; it is possible that high grade NPI production may slightly grow in

June. Meanwhile, low grade NPI may continue increase as environmental protection

renovation in Shandong had little impact on production in June.

The high-stocked stainless steel inventory contributed by blocked downstream

demand had negative impact on nickel market.

Stainless steel price declined in May mainly because of the falling nickel price. The

weak price in June will be benefited from the significant rising bidding price of

ferrochrome.

Ferrochrome price will keep high thanks to the strong chrome ore price and

weaker-than-expected ferrochrome supply.

Page 19: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

http://www.antaike.com [email protected] 18

News

8mt of ferronickel

produced by

Tsingshan Indonesian

project in April

It is informed by Indonesian Tsingshan Industrial Park, SMI and

GCNS projects, the first two constructed projects in the Park hit the

record high of production again at 8mt in April and delivered them all

to China for self-production, which means the SMI and GCNS have

reached full capacity and reached record high export. Meanwhile,

the third project ITSS in the Park was constructed systematically as

planned and will put into operation in end 2016 when realizes

ferronickel capacity of 1.6mt (1.6mt of nickel metal).

JNMC decreases

nickel production in

May

Affected by nickel ore shortage since April, Jinchuan Group Co.,

Ltd decreased production by 1,500-2,000t to around 13,000t in April

compared to 13,500-14,000t in March, and the decrease may

continued to May.

Nickel sulfide ore suspension in Australia and Brazil tightened the

supply to JNMC. What’s worth JNMC’s owned No.1 mine was still in

a shorter shutdown. Nickel demand increased to peak during March

and April period, and May sales is expected to maintain stable or

slightly fall.

China levies a

resource tax on nickel

ore based on price

since May 7

Ministry of Finance (MOF) and State Administration of Taxation

(SAT) jointly issued Announcement of Comprehensively Advancing

Resources Tax Reform on May 10, which will take effects on July 1,

2016.

According to the announcement, China will levy resources tax on

21 species resources and other metals based on sales value

instead of quantity. The 21 species resources include iron, gold,

copper, bauxite, lead & zinc mine, nickel, tin, plumbago,

Diatomaceous earth, kaolin, fluorite, limestone, pyrite, phosphorite,

kalium Chloratum, potassium sulfate, well and rock salt, lake salt,

salt by extracting subsurface brine, Coalbed Methane and sea salt.

The resources tax rate on nickel ore will be at 2-6%. The

announcement stated that government at all levels should

determine local tax rate that is applicable to local condition as

Page 20: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

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required with full consideration of local resource reserve,

affordability of enterprises and minus of fees according to the

resources tax and mineral resource compensation fees that local

enterprises have paid in previous years and the mineral product

prices.

Data indicate that the quantity based resources tax on nickel ore

that started from November 1 , 2011 were levied at 12 yuan/t for

grade II covering JNMC Mine II and JNMC Longshou Mine, at 11

yuan/t for grade III and 10 yuan/t for grade IV covering Jien Nickel,

and 9 yuan/t for grade V ore that involved Hualong county mine.

A Liaoning high grade

NPI plant plans

operation in June

A high grade NPI plant located in Jincheng city, Liaoning that start

construction of 2 sets of 33,000kva electric furnace plans to put into

operation in June. It is said that the plant was advancing smoothly

and it has purchased some nickel ore for the operation.

A Hebei NPI plant

maintenance BF

A blast furnace (BF) operating NPI plant located in Tangshan city,

Hebei, overhauled its one set of 65m3 and one set of 128m3 blast

furnace recently. The plant mainly conducted the operation of middle

and low grade NPI.

A NPI plant in

Shandong reopens

A NPI plant in Linyi city, Shandong plans to resume its ones set of

blast furnace recently. The plant that owns one set of 158m3 blast

furnace and two sets of 25,500kva RKEF electric furnace previously

produced high and middle grade NPI and suspended production

since Q1, 2015 due to environment protection restriction and weak

market.

A high grade NPI plant

in Jiangsu plans to

restart

A high grade NPI plant in Lianyungang city, Jiangsu that owns 8

sets of 4,300kva RKEF electric furnace and idled operation since

end 2015 is said to plan resuming production of high grade NPI in

June.

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Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

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A low grade NPI plant

in Liaoning will

resume production

A low grade NPI plant in Jinzhou city, Liaoning province has

prepared for reopen and will resume operation in late May. The plant

mainly conducted the production of low grade NPI previously owning

one set of 300m3 blast furnace, and it idled the furnace before.

A middle grade NPI

plant expands EF

operation

A middle grade NPI plant located in Jinzhong city, Shanxi province

previously operated one set of 12,500kva electric furnace (EF) and

one set of 25,000kva EF for middle grade NPI production. Recently

it is said that it reopened its idled four sets of 12,500kve EF to

produce Ni:4-6% NPI.

A high grade NPI plant

in Jiangsu to reopen

in June

A high grade NPI plant in Lianyungang city, Jiangsu that owned

eight sets of 43,000kva RKEF electric furnace is said to plan to

reopen its operation that suspended since the end of 2015 since

early June.

A newly-built NPI plant

in Inner Mongolia for

resale

A high grade NPI plant in Inner Mongolia with one set of

newly-built 25,000kva electric furnace is looking for buyer.

South32 increases

1.16% nickel

production in Q1

South32, a subsidiary of BHP Billiton, produced 8,700t of

ferronickel in the first quarter of 2016, up by 1.16% m/m. Its Cerro

Matoso mine decreased ferronickel production by 7.5% y/y from

10,587t to 9,807t during the same period.

A Liaoning high grade

NPI plant plans

operation in June

A high grade NPI plant located in Jincheng city, Liaoning that start

construction of 2 sets of 33,000kva electric furnace plans to put into

operation in June. It is said that the plant was advancing smoothly

and it has purchased some nickel ore for the operation.

JNMC decreases nickel

production in May

Affected by nickel ore shortage since April, Jinchuan Group Co.,

Ltd decreased production by 1,500-2,000t to around 13,000t in April

compared to 13,500-14,000t in March, and the decrease may

continued to May.

Page 22: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

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Nickel sulfide ore suspension in Australia and Brazil tightened the

supply to JNMC. What’s worth JNMC’s owned No.1 mine was still in

a shorter shutdown. Nickel demand increased to peak during March

and April period, and May sales is expected to maintain stable or

slightly fall.

8mt of ferronickel

produced by Tsingshan

Indonesian project in

April

It is informed by Indonesian Tsingshan Industrial Park, SMI and

GCNS projects, the first two constructed projects in the Park hit the

record high of production again at 8mt in April and delivered them all

to China for self-production, which means the SMI and GCNS have

reached full capacity and reached record high export. Meanwhile,

the third project ITSS in the Park was constructed systematically as

planned and will put into operation in end 2016 when realizes

ferronickel capacity of 1.6mt (1.6mt of nickel metal).

Fengzhen city 1.00Mt

stainless steel project

is ongoing smoothly

Fengzhen city’s 1.00Mt stainless steel project, which was

invested by Inner Mongolia Shangtai Industrial with 4.8bln yuan, is

currently ongoing smoothly.

The first stage project, with investment of 2.8bln yuan, had 6 sets

of 36000KVA ferronickel furnace, refining furnace and 1.25m

wideness stainless steel billet production line, which was completed

and operated in October 2014.

The second stage project, with investment of 2bln yuan, plans to

be operated in October 2016.

The project will produce 600kt of ferronickel, 1.00Mt of stainless

steel after it is completed, and meanwhile achieve 15bln yuan of

annual output value and 1.5bln yuan of pre-tax profit, and offer

2,000 job opportunities.

Shandong Hongwang

Industrial starts

constructing a CR

stainless steel project

Shandong Hongwang Industrial started constructing the second

stage project of the 1.20Mt CR stainless steel project, which was

designed by BERIS Engineering and Research Corporation.

The project will build 1450mm wideness stainless CR production

line, which will produce 600kt of stainless CR coil.

Page 23: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

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Brief report of an

eastern steel plant

bidding price

A steel plant in eastern China released its high carbon

ferrochrome price at 6,850yuan/50 base ton, increasing by 900yuan/

50 base ton m-o-m, bid amount will be 1,500t. Price of low carbon

ferrochrome was 11,976yuan/ 60 base ton, up by 816yuan/ 60 base

ton, bid amount will be 300t. Price of micro- carbon ferrochrome was

12,850yuan/60 base ton, rising by 1,250yuan/ 60 base ton, bid

amount will be 120t.

Qingdao exports 502kt

steel products from

Jan.-Apr.

According to Qingdao Customs, Qingdao exports 502kt steel

products from January to April, up by 47.7% y-o-y. Exports in April

reached 116kt, increasing by 37.5% y-o-y and up by 12.7% m-o-m.

Besides, Qingdao exported 199kt steel bar and 187kt steel plate in

the first four months.

Guizhou Zhenbang

resumes it high carbon

ferrochrome

production

Guizhou Zhengbang Renewable Resource Utilization Co., Ltd

completed the overhaul of its high carbon ferrochrome electric

furnace and resumed production. The company has one set of

electric furnace with daily output around 90t.

Page 24: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

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Statistics

Imports and Exports of Ni Products in Apr. 2016

Commodity Quantity in Apr.

2016

Quantity in

Jan.-Apr. 2016

Y-o-Y

Jan.-Apr.

Value in Apr.

2016

Value in

Jan-Apr. 2016

Y-o-Y

Jan.-Apr.

Import t t % USD USD %

Nickel mattes 31,576 104,255,887 15.45% 53,440 209,504,483 -45.90%

Refined Nickel 48,592 155,227,970 269.29% 431,575 1,378,133,258 121.03%

Ni semis 1,231 4,179,822 -3.23% 30,660 128,057,067 -13.06%

Other products 170 653,505 3.75% 10,621 49,210,895 -10.62%

Export

Nickel mattes 0 0 -100.00% 0 0 -100.00%

Refined Nickel 310 1,798,401 -85.97% 3,068 18,416,246 -92.29%

Ni semis 300 1,246,519 18.82% 8,404 34,017,711 3.38%

Other products 54 204,699 10.03% 2,574 10,474,061 18.22%

Note: 1. Figures are provided by China Customs.

2. All Imports/exports of commodity are in physical weight.

Ferrochrome Bidding Prices of Baosteel, TISCO and JISCO Unit: yuan/50 base ton

Date Baosteel TISCO JISCO

Jun. 2015 6,400 6,200 6,400

Jul. 2015 6,350 6,150 6,150

Aug.2015 6,300 6,050 6,200

Oct.2015 6,150 5,950 6,150

Oct.2015 6,150 5,950 6,150

Nov.2015 6,000 5,700 -

Dec.2015 5,620 5,420 5,417

Jan.2016 4,960 4,780 4,998

Feb.2016 4,680 4,680 4,680

Mar.2016 4,680 4,680 4,680

Apr.2016 4,780 4,680 4,680

May.2016 5,300 5,200

Jun.2016 6,280 6,180 6,180

Source: Antaike

Note: 50% chrome content and payment by cash to the factory

Page 25: Nickel & Stainless Steel Data Monthly

Nickel & Stainless Steel Monthly, June No.61

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Chinese Nickel Ore Stockpile at 12 Main Portsides in 2015-2016 Unit: kt

Date Tianjin Lianyungang Yingkou Rizhao Lanshan Tieshan Fangcheng Jingtang Caofeidian Dafeng Dongjiakou Lanqiao Total

May.8 3,000 3,700 1,300 1,150 1,550 2,800 150 1,050 300 250 300 1,450 17,000

May 15 3,050 3,400 1,450 1,100 1,500 2,800 100 900 300 250 250 1,300 16,400

May 25 3,000 3,400 1,350 1,100 1,550 2,600 150 950 350 250 250 1,300 16,250

May 29 3,000 3,350 1,400 1,100 1,500 2,700 150 1,000 300 250 250 1,250 16,250

Jun. 5 3,050 3,400 1,450 1,100 1,500 2,800 100 900 300 250 250 1,300 16,400

Jun.12 2,950 3,450 1,450 1,050 1,500 2,800 50 850 300 200 200 1,350 16,150

Jun.19 3,000 3,500 1,550 1,100 1,500 2,800 50 900 350 200 150 1,300 16,400

Jun.26 2,700 3,500 1,500 1,050 1,500 2,700 100 900 400 200 150 1,300 16,000

Jul.3 2,450 3,300 1,500 1,000 1,450 2,600 100 850 300 200 150 1,250 15,150

Jul.10 2,400 3,250 1,450 950 1,450 2,700 300 850 200 200 150 1,000 15,000

Jul.17 2,400 3,400 1,400 950 1,450 2,600 400 800 200 200 150 1,000 15,500

Jul.24 2,350 3,450 1,400 900 1,400 2,600 400 1,000 200 200 150 1,300 15,350

Jul.31 2,350 3,300 1,450 950 1,400 2,600 350 1,150 250 150 150 1,400 15,550

Aug.7 2,650 3,350 1,700 950 1,400 2,650 350 1,150 250 150 150 1,150 15,000

Aug.14 2,700 3,150 1,700 1,000 1,400 2,700 350 1,200 250 150 150 1,200 15,500

Aug.21 2,700 2,900 1,700 1,000 1,400 2,850 400 1,150 250 150 150 1,300 15,950

Aug.28 2,700 3,000 1,700 950 1,550 2,950 400 1,150 250 150 150 1,250 16,200

Oct.4 3,000 3,100 1,700 900 1,6500 3,000 400 1,150 200 150 150 1,450 16,900

Oct.11 3,000 3,100 1,750 900 1,600 3,000 300 1,100 200 150 150 1,450 16,700

Oct.18 2,850 3,050 1,800 900 1,700 2,800 300 1,100 200 150 150 1,450 16,450

Oct.25 3,000 3,100 1,750 900 1,600 3,000 300 1,100 200 150 150 1,450 16,700

Oct.9 2,800 2,800 1,650 850 1,650 2,800 300 950 200 150 150 1,500 15,200

Oct.16 2,100 2,700 1,700 900 1,600 2,700 300 850 200 150 150 1,400 14,750

Oct.23 2,050 2,700 1,750 800 1,600 2,700 300 850 200 150 150 1,300 14,550

Oct.30 2,000 2,800 1,750 850 1,600 2,800 300 850 200 150 150 1,300 14,750

Nov.6 2,100 2,850 1,850 850 1,650 2,800 250 850 200 150 150 1,300 15,000

Nov.13 2,200 2,700 1,900 850 1,600 2,850 250 800 200 150 150 1,250 14,900

Nov.20 2,300 2,700 1,900 850 1,550 2,800 250 750 200 150 150 1,200 14,800

Nov.27 2,300 2,750 1,900 850 1,550 2,850 250 700 200 150 150 1,200 14,850

Dec.4 2,350 2,800 1,950 850 1,550 2,850 250 700 200 150 150 1,200 15,000

Dec.11 2,400 2,600 1,900 800 1,550 2,850 250 700 200 150 150 1,200 14,750

Dec.18 2,800 2,500 1,850 850 1,550 2,850 250 750 200 150 150 1,200 15,100

Dec.25 2,800 2,500 1,900 850 1,450 2,850 250 750 150 150 150 1,200 15,000

2016

Jan.8 2,450 2,350 1,950 850 1,450 2,850 250 750 150 150 150 1,200 14,550

Jan.15 2,400 2,100 1,950 900 1,450 2,800 250 750 150 150 150 1,200 14,250

Jan.22 2,300 1,800 1,900 900 1,450 2,800 250 750 150 150 150 1,200 13,800

Jan.29 2,250 1,750 1,850 900 1,450 2,700 250 750 150 150 150 1,200 13,550

Feb.19 2,400 1,550 1,900 850 1,400 2,700 250 750 150 150 150 1,250 12,500

Feb.26 2,450 1,500 1,850 850 1,400 2,700 250 750 150 150 150 1,250 13,450

Mar.4 2,400 1,500 1,900 800 1,400 2,650 250 750 150 150 150 1,200 13,800

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Mar.11 2,400 1,550 1,900 800 1,450 2,650 250 700 150 100 150 1,100 13,150

Mar.18 2,350 1,650 1,850 800 1,450 2,600 250 700 150 100 150 1,000 12,950

Mar.25 2,350 1,600 1,850 800 1,400 2,600 250 700 150 100 150 1,000 12,950

Apr.1 2,350 2,060 1,750 740 950 2,600 400 700 150 100 150 1,100 13,140

Apr.8 2,400 2,100 1,780 720 990 2,600 400 650 150 100 150 1,150 12,800

Apr.15 2,300 1,650 1,800 700 1,300 2,800 250 600 150 100 150 1,000 12,800

Apr.22 2,200 1,600 1,850 700 1,300 2,900 250 500 150 100 150 1,000 12,700

Apr.29 2,200 1,650 1,800 750 1,250 3,000 250 500 150 100 150 1,100 12,900

May.6 2,100 1,700 1,850 700 1,200 3,100 250 400 150 100 150 1,150 12,850

May.13 2,150 1,900 1,900 700 1,250 3,100 250 400 150 100 150 1,150 13,200

May.20 2,200 1,950 1,850 750 1,100 3,050 250 400 150 150 150 900 12,900

May.27 2,150 2,000 1,850 750 1,100 3,100 250 400 150 100 150 850 12,850