www.TransformingTransportation.org

New Initiatives for Clean Mobility:

Building a Sustainable Urban Future

Lew Fulton, Co-director, STEPS Program

University of California, Davis

Presented at Transforming Transportation 2016

Lew Fulton, Co-director, STEPS Program

University of California, Davis

• How can we create cities that look like

Copenhagen and not Phoenix?

• What are the environmental benefits of such

cities?

• What will this cost?

• What other barriers must be overcome to get

there?

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• During 2013-2014, ITDP and UCD developed an

Urban Model and created a “High Shift” scenario,

toward much greater use of public and active

transport, for global cities

• In 2015, we added the “High Shift Cycling” Scenario

to create a more complete vision of urban low-

carbon futures

2

https://www.itdp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/A-

Global-High-Shift-Cycling-Scenario_-Nov-2015.pdf

• “Baseline” Scenario aligns with the IEA 4 degree scenario

• About 25% improvement in fuel economy to 2050

(slight additional improvements in High Shift scenario)

• No shift away from car growth trends

• Other modes static or slow growth

• “High Shift” Scenario:

• Projection of cities by size through 2050

• Increased rapid transit km per million population

• Encourage walking and cycling for short trips

• E-bikes expand in lieu of motor cycles and some cars

• Preserve total projected growth in personal mobility in

low and middle income (non-OECD) countries to 2050

• Cut car travel in cities by half by 2050 in High Shift

scenario compared to Baseline Scenario

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Cycling Study – the Baseline 2015 Mode Share

The High Shift Cycling (HSC) Scenario: rapid cycle and e-

bike mode share increases around the world

Average global cycling and ebike mode shares reach a combined 17% by 2030, 23% by 2050

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2015 2030 2050

Mo

de

shar

e

BAU Cycling BAU E-bike HS Cycling HS E-bike

How do we get there? HSC Policy

High Shift scenarios – massive shift away from car-based

growth

Non-OECD travel results by mode, scenario and year

Costs – huge savings from HS scenarios just in terms of

lower vehicle, fuel and infrastructure costs

Some marginal economic costs and benefits

of greater cycling

Cost differences, High Shift Cycling v. “vanilla” High Shift in 2030

Financing - what to do?

• We need massive investments in public and active transport modes, and strong O&M programs to maintain good systems

• Yes we need financing systems, but we also need to use policies to leverage the enormous annual expenditures on transportation and channel these toward sustainable modes and cities

• Vehicle taxes and feebate systems, road charge systems are excellent places to start