The post-election environment

Jo CasebourneProgramme Director

A new context?

A not dissimilar environment to 2010 But important differences in focus

2

Public service reform

Europe and wider world

Devolution

Purse-strings

Priorities

People

A new – but familiar - government

3

323

100 200 300 300 200 100

Conservatives 307 Lib Dems 57 DUP 8 SNP 6 Labour 258SDLP 3 Plaid 3

Green 1Alliance 1Independent 1

Sinn Fein 5

323

100 200 300 300 200 100

Conservatives 331 Green 1LD 8 SNP 56 Labour 232DUP 8 Plaid 3SDLP 3 UKIP 1UUP 2

Ind 1

Sinn Fein 4

2015

2010

People

A new – but familiar - Cabinet

4

People

A familiar cast of permanent secretaries – for now

5

People

Civil service capacity has fallen People

Continued – but accelerated – budget reductions (I)

7

Purse-strings

8

Continued – but accelerated – budget reductions (II)

Purse-strings

9

Similar – but more urgent - priorities Priorities

Public service reform

Europe and wider world

Devolution

• New commissioning models?• Structural reform?• Digital?

• May 2016 referendum• ECHR/ HRA

• Nations • Cities and regions

10

PRIORITIES: DECENTRALISATION AND

DEVOLUTION

The UK is highly centralised

11

Structure of general government revenues across levels of government (2000 and 2009)

Priorities

London’s economy dominates UK cities

12

Economic output in capital vs other cities, EU countries (capital = 100)

Priorities

There is higher trust in local decision-makers

13

Who do you trust most to make decisions about how services are provided in your local area?

Source: polling by Populus for LGA, n=1000

Priorities

And other reasons to decentralise…

Arguments for:

- More responsive, tailored public services

- Stimulating local economic growth

- Better prospects for joined-up government- Greater accountability to the public through

elected local leaders – including directly elected mayors

14

Priorities

… as well as reasons not to

But…

- Weak evidence base for economic growth

- Easier said than done

- Centralised services can deliver economies of

scale

- Governance, capability and accountability issues

remain at the local level (though less for devolved

nations)

15

Priorities

Devolution/decentralisation mean differentthings to different people

16

Political Administrative

Fiscal Economic

‘Types’ of decentralisation

Recipients of decentralisedauthority

Individuals

Neighbourhoods

Professionals

Local groups

Local government

Central Govt

DevolvedGovt

Devolved

Govt

Devolved government as agent or autonomous

Priorities

The Coalition Government did deliver several changes

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Devolved nations:- Scotland Act, 2012- Wales Act, 2015- Stormont House Agreement, 2014- Smith Commission Agreement, 2014

English cities and regions:- 2012 Mayors- City Deals, 2012-- ‘Devolution deals’ and the Northern Powerhouse,

2014-

Priorities

18

And more changes to come (I) Priorities

More changes to come (II)

19

Conservative manifesto pledges:- “We will devolve far-reaching powers over economic

development, transport and social care to large cities which choose to have elected mayors”

- “We will legislate to deliver the historic deal for Greater Manchester”

- “We will devolve further powers over skills spending and planning to the Mayor of London.”

City devolution bill, enabling:- the creation of ‘Metro Mayors’ for Combined Authority

areas;

- Metro Mayors to take on the functions of PCCs;

- greater flexibility on the functions that can be conferred on a combined authority;

- new, streamlined local governance models as agreed by councils

Priorities

There are signs decentralisation is being taken seriously

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The decentralising team

Priorities

21

PRIORITIES: PUBLIC SERVICE REFORM

Responses to pressures not yet fixed

22

Priorities

“Give choice to the user. Encourage competition between the suppliers. Pay by results wherever appropriate”

Markets for public services

“there will be no more of these pointless re-organisations that aim for change butinstead bring chaos”

Structural reform

Digital

“we’re going really become a much more digital organisation…”

Trends towards more, more complex, and larger scale outsourcing

Complex

Simple

Nat

ure

of s

ervi

ce

Payment for outcomes

Payment for activity

Type of contract

Reoffending

Desktop

Hip replacements

Drug treatment (DIP)

Directi

on of travel

Payroll Estate management

Troubled families

Priorities

Risk that cuts will trigger structural reforms

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Priorities

Ambitious talk for savings from digital

25

Priorities

“We are going to find the [£10 billion] savings… the systems for finding these savings are in much better shape than 5 years ago… take the impact of digital for instance. GDS… has the opportunities to go into other areas it hasn’t been in before”

– Matt Hancock, MCO at the Institute for Government, May 22, 2015

- END -

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About the Institute

The Institute for Government is an independent charity with cross-party and Whitehall governance working to increase government effectiveness. Our funding comes from the Gatsby Charitable Foundation, one of the Sainsbury Family Charitable Trusts.

We work with all the main political parties at Westminster and with senior civil servants in Whitehall, providing evidence-based advice that draws on best practice from around the world.

We undertake research, provide the highest quality development opportunities for senior decision makers and organise events to invigorate and provide fresh thinking on the issues that really matter to government. 27