1. Improving the Quality of Policy Decisions The Center for
Analysis of Science in Policy www.scipolicy.org 2014 1 2. IMPROVING
THE QUALITY OF POLICY DECISIONS Today, there is no way to forecast
the outcome of a policy before it is enacted. True? 2 3. IMPROVING
THE QUALITY OF POLICY DECISIONS FALSE ! because there now is a tool
that expresses numerically the probability that a policy will
achieve its goal. 3 4. 4 What if I showed you a new tool that could
give you a numerical index of the probability that a policy will
succeed? "Impossible" you would say, but believe me, that tool is
here, and heres what we can do with it. IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF
POLICY DECISIONS 5. What is that tool? (Restless, anxious
breathing, agitated movement.) 5 6. It is Integrative Propositional
Analysis WHAT ???????? 6 7. INTEGRATIVE PROPOSITIONAL ANALYSIS
(IPA*) Conceived and developed by Steven E. Wallis, PhD IPA DOES
FORECAST THE PROBABILITY THAT A POLICY WILL MEET ITS OBJECTIVES -
OR NOT. *IPA is NOT India Pale Ale. 7 8. APPLYING IPA 1.1 Through
examining the logical structure of a document, we can assign a
numerical value to the probability that the policy will be
successful - or not! 8 9. 9 Applying IPA during policy development,
we can identify defects in the policy at that stage, permitting us
to step back, modify and improve the result. APPLYING IPA 1.2 10.
10 When there are several policy alternatives, they can be compared
and the superior one selected for completion. This can obviate
ideological gridlock, prompting bi-partisan collaboration. APPLYING
IPA 1.3 11. GOALS & OBJECTIVES 1. Further development of IPA
theory 2. Automation of the now largely manual process 3. Perform
analyses on documents submitted 4. Teach the use of IPA to policy
makers 5. Demonstrate use of IPA during creation of policy 6. Make
IPA an open platform for the common good 11 12. NEEDS 1. Hire
postdoctoral fellows to perform analyses 2. Travel expenses to
regional and national meetings 3. Part-time administrative
assistant 4. Routine office and administrative costs 5. Marketing
and publicity 6. Computer programmer to automate analyses Estimated
start up cost: $15,000 12 13. 13 PUBLICATIONS UNDER SUBMISSION
Using Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) to Study the
USAID/PERU Country Development Cooperation Strategy Are theories of
conflict improving? Using propositional analysis to determine the
structure of conflict theories over the course of a century Using
Integrative Propositional Analysis to analyze the potential
usefulness of People sharing Resources Theory and indicating
directions for advancement Whole Scraps and Partial Maps:
Investigating Some Underlying Assumptions of AQAL PUBLICATIONS
Academic Publications Wallis, S. (in press publication anticipated
in 2014) Propositional Analysis for Evaluating Explanations through
their Conceptual Structures. Chapter in Modes of Explanation:
Affordances for Action and Prediction (edited by Michael Lissack
and Abraham Graber). Palgrave MacMillan. Wallis, S. (2014).
Structures of logic in policy and theory: Identifying sub-systemic
bricks for investigating, building, and understanding conceptual
systems. Foundations of Science. doi:10.1007/s10699-014-9360-4
Wallis, S. (2014). Existing and emerging methods for integrating
theories within and between disciplines. Journal for Organizational
Transformation and Social Change. Guest Editor, Steven Wallis, Vol.
11 (1). Wallis, S. (2013). How to Choose Between Policy Proposals:
A Simple Tool Based on Systems Thinking and Complexity Theory. E:CO
Emergence: Complexity and Organizations. Vol. 15 (3). Wallis, S.
(2011). Avoiding Policy Failure: A Workable Approach. Litchfield
Park, AZ: Emergent Publications, ISBN: 978-0-9842165-0-5. Wallis,
S. (2010). Developing Effective Ethics for Effective Behavior.
Social Responsibility Journal, Vol. 6 (4). Wallis, S. (2010).
Toward the Development of More Effective Policy Models. Integral
Review special issue Toward Development of Politics and the
Political. Vol. 6 (1), p 153-177. Wallis, S. (2010). The structure
of theory and the structure of scientific revolutions: What
constitutes an advance in theory? Chapter in Cybernetics and
Systems Theory in Management: Tools, Views and Advancements.
Wallis, S. E. (Ed.) Hershey, PA: IGI Global. IPA: Selected
Publications 14. 14 Franklin D. Nash, MD Dr. Nash is an 82 year-old
former Professor of Medicine at the Indiana University School of
Medicine, specializing in Nephrology (renal disease and
hypertension), with emphasis on research and teaching. In recent
years he has been distressed by the abuse of Science, Technology,
Engineering, and Mathematics for partisan and ideological purposes
in creation of Congressional bills that have resulted in policies
detrimental to the interests of the American people. Attempting to
see to an increase on the quality of policy determinations, he
founded the Center for Evaluation of Science in Policy
(www.scipolicy.org) that now serves as a vehicle for promoting the
use of Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA), the first
quantitative means of forecasting and improving the effectiveness
of policy during its origination. In retirement, he has served as a
life and health insurance company Medical Director and Vice
President for Academic Affairs at the RMP Institute of
Biomechanics. During his active years, Dr. Nash consulted for
Social Security Disability, Medicare, Medicaid, and for the USAF
School of Aerospace Medicine among other organizations and was a
frequent Visiting Professor at various academic medical
institutions. A lover of the arts, Dr. Nash played double bass to
finance his education and continued playing professionally in his
free time. His focus now is on Health Care Policy, Biomedical
Research Policy, and Water-Energy Nexus Policy, hence his passion
for Integrative Propositional Analysis. 15. Steven E. Wallis, PhD
Dr. Wallis is Director of Meta Analysis at Meaningful Evidence. He
has a decade of experience as an organization development
consultant providing collaborative workshop facilitation,
leadership development, and training to businesses and non-profits
in Northern California. Building on that practical experience, and
a systems thinking perspective, he returned to school and earned
his PhD in 2006 at Fielding Graduate University. Dr. Wallis also
works at Capella University mentoring doctoral candidates. As
director for the Foundation for the Advancement of Social Theory
(FAST), he supports emerging scholars working to identify rigorous
paths for improving theory, policy, and strategic knowledge. An
interdisciplinary thinker, his publications cover a range of fields
including ethics, science, management, organizational learning,
entrepreneurship, and policy. His book, Avoiding Policy Failure,
shows how a systems view of policy models can be used to estimate
the effectiveness of policies before implementation, as well as
improving policies for reducing cost and improving results.
Recently, Dr. Wallis was appointed to the Fulbright Specialist
Roster. The Fulbright Specialist program supports U.S. scholars in
projects to help improve the capacity of academic institutions
outside the United States. 15 16. Bernadette Wright, PhD I founded
Meaningful Evidence, LLC to help leaders accumulate and order data
so as to disclose what effects they are having and why, so they can
use that information to improve their results. I support clients
with survey design, data analysis, formative evaluation, impact
evaluation, and report writing. I also provide evaluation design
and proposal writing for grants. My specialties include ability to
solve tough evaluation challenges and to quickly research and
synthesize vast amounts of information. Believing in using whatever
research methods can best answer the questions, I have used a broad
range of quantitative research and qualitative research methods.
Examples include survey research, focus groups, literature reviews,
case studies, interviews, and environmental scanning. This
experience has covered long-term care, caregiving, aging in place,
Medicaid, assistive technology, health policy, and many other
topics. Previously, as Consultant at The Lewin Group, I provided
research, project management, and report writing for government,
corporate, and nonprofit clients. Before that, I was at AARP,
providing policy analysis and policy research. My PhD is in Public
Policy/Program Evaluation from the University of Maryland. 16 17.
The Center for Analysis of Science in Policy www.scipolicy.org 2014
17 We thank you for your attention
