Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
2
SIMON-SKJODTCENTER FOR THE
PREVENTION OF GENOCIDE
UNITED STATES HOLOCAUST MEMORIAL MUSEUM
Naomi KikolerDeputy Director
What does a history museum about the Holocaust have to do with preventing genocide today?
“A memorial unresponsive to the future would also violate the memory of the past.”
Elie WieselMuseum Founding ChairHolocaust Survivor, and Nobel Laureate
8
9
10Image from USHMM Bearing Witness: Syria
Public
Specific
Best Methods
Early
This
What’s missing?
peace
keep
ing o
perat
ions
sanct
ions
mili
tary
inte
rven
tion
limiti
ng com
munica
tions
const
itutio
nal re
form
livel
ihood in
terv
entio
ns
secu
rity s
ecto
r ref
orm
disarm
amen
t, dem
obiliza
tion, r
einte
grat
ion
civil
socie
ty su
pport
Most policy attention on mass atrocity prevention is focused here.
mass
kill
ing
one yearfive years
Countries ranked among the Top 10; countries most people know about.
Countries identified by the Early Warning Project as medium risk.
13
Statistical Risk Assessment
Aggregated Expert Forecasts
14
Statistical Risk Assessment: Variables
• exclusionary elite ideology• state-led discrimination
• type of government• institutional stability• recent coup activity
• recent upheaval• regional conflict• domestic civil conflict
• population size• economic growth rate• trade openness• infant mortality• natural resource wealth
Model #2: Elite Threat
15
Model #1: Bad Regime
Statistical Risk Assessment
• population size • per capita income• natural resource wealth• economic growth rate • type of government• institutional stability• recent coup activity• domestic civil conflict• regional conflict
• low trade openness• infant mortality • authoritarian rule• regime type• regional conflict• recent upheaval• exclusionary elite ideology• state-led discrimination• prior mass killing
Statistical Risk Assessments: Ensemble Forecasts
Model #3• random forests
16
17
•exclusionary elite ideology•state-led discrimination•international isolation•domestic conflict in country•regional conflict
Bad
Regi
me
Elite
Thr
eat
Rand
om F
ores
ts
Statistical Risk Assessment: Myanmar
18
Statistical Risk Assessment
Aggregated Expert Forecasts
21
Aggregated Expert Forecasts: Opinion Pool
22
Aggregated Expert Forecasts: Output
26
