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Global trends and developments in the renewable energy domainPaul van den OosterkampECN Policy Studies

Morocco – ECN-IRESEN WorkshopRabat, 16 November 2015

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Content

• Global investment trends• The link with the climate debate• Key technology trends• Key issues in strategy , implementation and planning

– Economics, generation of jobs– Integration in the infrastructure– Sustainability

• Concluding remarks

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Content

• Global investment trends• The link with the climate debate• Key technology trends• Key issues in strategy , implementation and planning

– Economics, generation of jobs– Integration in the infrastructure– Sustainability

• Concluding remarks

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Investments trends (1):• Are again picking up after some dips in 2012, 2013

Source: UNEP-BNEF, 2015

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Investment trends (2)• With increasing investment in developing countries

Source: UNEP-BNEF, 2015

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Investment trends (3)• And largest growth in new investment for solar and wind:

Source: UNEP-BNEF, 2015

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Installed RES capacity in the world

Source : REN21, 2015

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Investment trends (4)• And different investment patterns by region :

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Content

• Global investment trends• The link with the climate debate• Key technology trends• Key issues in strategy , implementation and planning

– Economics, generation of jobs– Integration in the infrastructure– Sustainability

• Concluding remarks

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The link with the climate debate (1)• The growth in investment in RES is a boost for investor confidence,

despite 50% drop in oil price• Renewables play an increasing important role in developing a low carbon

economy and will be first choice for electricity in the long term (2050)• But: renewables excl. large scale hydro are currently still only 9% of

global electricity generation• So mobilization of financial markets will be crucial to support further

expanding growth of role for renewables• And a price on carbon will help to establish a level playing field• Shared vision : stay within 2 degrees C

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The link with the Climate debate (2)• In Paris (COP 21), over 200 countries will endeavour to sign a binding

agreement on limiting carbon emisions• IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 is moderately positive on Paris meeting :

Source : IEA

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Content

• Global investment trends• The link with the climate debate• Key technology trends• Key issues in strategy , implementation and planning

– Economics, generation of jobs– Integration in the infrastructure– Sustainability

• Concluding remarks

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Key technology trends : solar PV• Spectacular cost reduction for solar :

Source : Fraunhofer

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The PV value chain

Source : ECN

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Recently announced contract prices for renewable power

Source : IEA Mid Renewables Medium Term Market Report (2015)

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Keys technology trends : Biomass : the carbon game

Source : ECN

Deciduous trees (beech, poplar, oak,..)

41-49% cellulose24-34% hemicellulose20-26% lignin

Coniferous trees(spruce, pine, taxus,…)

41-51% cellulose12-24% hemicellulose27-33% lignin

Biomass contains valuable C-based molecular capital

Example: lignocellulosic biomass

Herbaceous plants(straw, grass, hay, corn stover,..)

27-39% cellulose20-34% hemicellulose13-19% lignin 1717

Applications for lignin

bio-plastics

bio-char for soil improvement

base & specialty chemicals

bio-bitumen for green asphalt

bio-resins for wood-adhesives

bio-fuel for CHP O OOH

fuel-additives

O OOH

OOH

O

OO

OOOH

OHOO

OHOHO

OHO

OH OH

OHOH

OHOH

Oguaiacols

syringols

alkylphenols

catechols

high volume - low value market 100 €/t

low volume - high value market 10.000 €/t

activated carbon, carbon-fibres and carbon-black

monomeric phenols from the pyrolysis of lignin

oligomeric fragments from the pyrolysis of lignin

additives for flooring material

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Biomass and waste gasification • Efficient power generation with gas

engine or turbine • Production of BioMethane • (Co-)production of chemicals• Gas cleaning (incl. tar removal)

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Key technology trends : wind energy

Source : IRENA

Learning curve for onshore wind turbines :

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Key technology trends (4)

So far; limited data to calculate learning effect

Source : ECN

Fully Integrated wind farm design, Example ‘Roadmap for the Future’

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Cost of offshore wind

Source : IEA Renewable energy Mid Term Market Report (2015)

Offshore wind investment costs are expected to decrease with the deployment of larger power plants, increasing competition among turbine manufacturers and providers of other supply chain elements, the standardization of some foundation structures, and more efficient O&M. 23

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Content

• Global investment trends• The link with the climate debate• Key technology trends• Key issues in strategy , implementation and planning

– Economics, generation of jobs– Integration in the infrastructure– Sustainability

• Concluding remarks

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Economics and renewables

• Balance of payment, saving on importing oil and fossil fuels

• Generation of jobs– For different parts of the value chain : R&D, manufacturing,

installation, service and maintenance• Tailoring to the local situation

– Adapting of equipment – Certification to account for local climate circumstances

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Integrating the infrastructure : Renewable energy and the grid

• “ Having a solar panel that isn’t connected to the grid is like having a computer that’s not connected to the internet”

• With a higher % of renewables, the grid and support technologies as electricity storage become critical, and smart solutions become necessary

• DOE accounts costs of 2-3 $ct/kWh due to cope with intermittency

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Options for the grid variability

• Quick response sources : a fast ramp up of gas-fired power plants, pumped hydro storage

• Demand response, making use of smart meters• Market coupling

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Sustainability

• Looking at the complete life cycle and value chain• Considering (replacement of) scarce materials (solar

cells, drive train wind turbines) or materials with an environmental concern (e.g. Cd)

• Improving air quality in cities

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Content

• Global investment trends• The link with the climate debate• Key technology trends• Key issues in strategy , implementation and planning

– Economics, generation of jobs– Integration in the infrastructure– Sustainability

• Concluding remarks

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Concluding remarks

• Renewable energy has become main stream technology• Further costs decline and technology learning will make

renewables a competitive option for power supply• Arranging finance for the further deployment of renewables is

critical• A smart system integration of renewables will become more

critical, but is affordable in terms of cost• Renewable energy can give a boost to local economic activity• Technology needs tailoring to local circumstances• A solid cooperation between Morocco and Netherlands can

address most of these issues

31City of the Sun, Municipality of Heerhugowaard, NL (photo courtesy Kuiper Compagnons)

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