“Mongolia: Democracy Without Prerequisites”- M. Steven Fish

Journal of Democracy – July 1998 (Publication on the theory and practice of

democracy)

2015-08-24“Political Change in Context”Presenter: Burenjargal BombishSungKongHoe University-MAINS program

“Mongolia: Dependent Democratization” -

Verena FritzJournal of Communist and Post-Communist Studies - Sep,

2010

(covering communist and post-communist states and communist movements)

Content

• Introduction

• Modes of transitionoThe Preconditions School

oThe Mode of Transition School

• Democratic Transition and Consolidation in the Land of ChinggisKhaan

• ExplanationsoStage 1: The transition triggered from outside

oStage 2: Auspicious constitutional choice

oStage 3: Keeping the MPRP on track

oStage 4: Towards consolidation

• Conclusion: The “Steppe” Path to Democracy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9ZkwCcc

Zgc

President’s speach

Introduction:

Contradicts• Modernization theory • Explanations of democratic episodes or geographical

location • Mode of transition• Importance of early replacement of political elites

Untypical achievement (with diverse factors)• The second country to become communist country in 1921• Rated as politically free country by the Freedom House

Surveys• The only post colonial country to have consolidated

Precondition assumption:

Economic development

least developed & poor communist

country in 1990 (annual per capita

income of 500$)Development indicator:

Education

Universal literacy - did not differ from

other Soviet republics reversed

democratization Democratic prehistory No prehistory (feudal system in Manju

Qin period later collective

agriculture)Geographical proximity to

established democracy No prospect of accession to the EU.

A. The Preconditions School

I. Modes of Transition

Culture and Religion Nomadic culture and Buddhist

religion could be classified as neutral

for democratizationEthnic composition • Largely homogeneous - 90% Khalkh

• External minority: Inner Mongolians

Size of population Small population (3 million) is

dispersed yet Capital UB resembles a

“city state”Already established

independent statehood

Until the late 1980s independence was

highly limited: “satellite country” of the

Soviet Union.

A. The Preconditions School

I. Modes of Transition

Religion Buddhist monasteries -Feudal centres

70 years-Religious activities were

suppressedCulture:

a. Nomadic culture associated

with proto-democratic

individualism

b. Nomadic culture is

disadvantage for

democratization-

prevalence of clan structure

a. * In Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan

limited steps towards

democratization

* Nomads were dependent on

communist system.

b. Clans were not politically

important and unaware of their

clan affiliation

A. The Preconditions School

I. Modes of Transition

B. The Mode of Transition School

“Pacted” transition: old and new elites agree on certain rules of the game and extend mutual guarantees (Southern Europe and Latin America)

Some elements of a pact belongs to the elite-controlled type

Decisive shift as a result of first competitive election is more likely to lead to full democracy (Eastern Europe)

MPRP (Mongolian People’s Revolution Party) & oppositions agreed holding the first competitive elections.

Communist vote stood at 60-70% in the founding election in 1990.

I. Modes of Transition

“Mode of transition” theory might view favorable but initial election resulting elite continuity as rather inauspicious for further

democratization.

How do we know if Democracy and

Democratic Consolidation are in

Mongolia?

II. Democratic Transition and Consolidation in the Land of Chinggis Khaan

Uncertainty of electoral result

Certainty of procedure

Democracy:Election

(Electoral democracy)

Adam Przeworski

Freedom

1. Freedom - Continuously classified “free”

• Press freedom: Media were rated “free” despite some pressures made by new new media law.

• Freedom to assemble:

oNumerous parties

oNew trade unions

oProgressive NGOs and civil society

oCivic activism: transparency and accountability of the ruling party 2. Uncertainty of electoral result – Electoral results were uncertain

3. Certainty of Procedure – Remained problematic

• Right of parliamentarians simultaneously to hold ministerial posts

• Competencies and prerogatives of parliament, government and president

Democracy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GRKfeyXkOc

Enkhtuya’s speach

• Citizens perceive the democracy as right step while 1/3 live under population

(81% in rural & 85% in UB)

Democratic consolidation

Citizens must support democracy even in the face of economic crises

Those in power must follow constitutional rules

Democratic consolidation

No significant group seek to overthrow

the democratic rules

• No extremist party threating to undermine the constitutional order

• Governments have firmly followed constitutional rules

• The constitutional court appears to be well established.

Explanations

• Steven Fish: o Fast consolidation of party system as crucial factor for

achieving full democratization

• Author argues: o Parties and its system suffered from tendency to

disintegrate and to rely on personalities rather than programmes.o Instead, emphasized four phases with different

combination of factors allowing democratization to proceed.

Stage 1: The transition triggered from outside

• Collapse of Soviet authoritarian system – Ensuring a Peaceful liberalization processoThe party’s GS Tsedenbal. Yu and Batmunkh. Ja

oMongolia was affected by Sino Soviet friendship (late 1980)

oDemonstrations and hunger strike – Resignation of Politburo and GS – Old elite was unwilling to give up power, but willing to consult and compromise

o Small inter-connected elites, demonstration leaders demanded compromise than confrontation

• Mongolian leaders had begun to look for new aid from Western sources. Founding elections took place in July 29, 1990

It can not be called

PACTED transition

(It was not in a

position to bargain

over power sharing)

but more likely

REGIME

CONTROLLED

transition

Stage 2:Auspicious constitutional choice

• After lengthy parliamentary debates, a Constitution providing for a mixed parliamentary-presidential system was adopted in Jan 1992.oThe president is directly elected, but the government,

headed by a prime minister, is appointed and removed by parliamentary majorities.

oThe legislature was unified into one chamber and slimmed down to 76 members.

• A constitution with a weak presidency was auspicious for further democratization in

PARLIAMENT

76 members

PRIME MINISTER

GOVERNMENT

SAIKHANBILEG.CH

PRESIDENT

ELBEGDORJ.

TS

16 Ministries (4 General & 12

specific orientation ministries)

And its agencies

Provinc

e

Soum

Bag

Municip

al

District

Khoroo

National

Security

Council

National Audit Office

National statistical office

Bank of Mongolia

Government Service

Council

Financial Regulatory

Commission

National Human Rights

Commission

General Election

Committee

Constitutional Court

Independent Authority

Against Corruption of

Mongolia

Deputy Prime

Minister

Cabinet Secretariat

of Government

JUDICIARY

The General Council

of the Courts

Supreme Court

State General

Prosecutors Office

Judicial Information

System

Legal Information

System

MONGOLIAN GOVERNMENT STRUCTURE

11 Women Parliament Members from four different parties as “Women Caucus” Chaired by Mrs. Erdenechimeg. L

Stage 3:Keeping the MPRP on track

• The MPRP have been dominant ruling party under majoritarian than proportional election rules

• The MPRP had no interest in fostering a multi-party system e.g. limited access to oppositions

• Foreign party foundations and democracy-promoting NGOs provided financial and material assistance

• Population was ready to change the ruling party

• Crucial dependence of Mongolia on foreign aid-There is no “democratic conditionality” http://countrymeters.info/en/Mongolia/economy

• Dependency has strong security components – All governments pursued pro-Western foreign policy (ODA makes up 20% of GDP)

1990 19921996

20002004

20082012

70 vs 6

25 vs 50 + 1

Bagabandi. N - MPRP

19971993

20012005

2009

2013Enkhbayar. N

MPRP

Elbegdorj. Ts – Democratic party

..

SDP

357 vs 24Great khural

31 vs 19Small Khural

72 vs 436 vs 36

+ 4

45 vs 28 + 3

25 vs 31 vs 11 vs 3 +1

1990

Ochirbat. P

MPRP

OCHIRBAT. P

BAGABANDI. N

ENKHBAYAR. N ELBEGDORJ. TS

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZwHTl8zzUQ

JUSTICE COILITION

Mongolian People’s Party

Mongolian People’s Revolution Party

Democratic Party Mongolian National Democratic Party

(MNDP)

Civil will-Green Party

Political parties which have parliament seats in the

election of the 2012

Bread Card System: Oct 1991-Apr 1993

• Per month per person: 3 kg flour, 550 gr sugar, 550 gr rice, 350 gr butter

• Per household: 1 salad oil, 4 vodka, bread bread depending on number of family members e.g. 6 members of family will receive 2 breads per day.

Stage 4: Towards consolidation• Dependency on foreign donors:

o Promote democracy in the short term and less effective in the longer term

oHas not solved country’s development problems

o Economic policy has been strongly influenced by foreign advisers

o The focus was on liberalization – IMF forced government to abolish an export on raw cashmere.

o Project assistance often targeted for general development

• During DU government:

o “Shock therapy” administered between 1996 and1998 further undermined domestic production and increased the poverty rate.

oDisintegration: MNDP, Social-Democratic MSDP, and a new party “Civil Courage” (PCC)

oChange of prime ministers

oCorruption and political enmity

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oa5OaRBGe2E

Problem in Mongolia

• Inauspicious condition of majoritarian system• Long ruling of both parliament and president, Banagbandi from

there was a risk that one party unchecked powers to alter the rules of the game

• MPRP today appears more deeply committed to democratic values

was before 1996.• Absence of ethnic conflict

• Civil society is surprisingly strong

o Press Institute - Danish aid

o The Liberal Women’s Brain Pool (LEOS), country wide voter education project – National Endowment Democracy, AF and KAS.

oMongolian students

• Nevertheless, democracy appears to have already acquired a substantial level of resiliency.

Stage 4: Towards consolidation

Conclusion: The “Steppe” Path to Democracy

• Mongolian democratization contradicts transition theory

• Structural factors: o Buddhist religion and a nomadic society with weak clan structures

oNo ethnic conflict

• “Conjunctural” factors: o Independency of country

o Constitutional choice –mixed parliamentary presidential system

o Strong dependency on foreign aid and external promotion

o Predominance of free-market ideology is undermining important structural assets: universal education, a social safety net, and relative economic equality

o Domestic capacity to solve problems independently were poor

o DU failure

o Majoritarian electoral system

Comments of the presenter

• The article covered and reviewed wide issues related to the democratization and well captured.

• External factor to transition was from Soviet Union collapse - Both Tsedenbal. Ya and Batmunkh were not just simply “puppet” of Soviet Union. They had careful strategy to keep the national independence and development under pressure of leaders of Soviet Union.

• Both articles were written in too optimistic view that Mongolia has already achieved democratization and democratic consolidation -Analyze made at the political system and parties at top level as basic indicators but at the bottom level, still, mass of population are lacking democratic and civic education. More genuine and solid review and measurement probably would bring another view such as corruption at all level, government bureaucracy, poor participation, economic injustice in grassroots issues.

Comments of the presenter• Civil society is relatively strong among limited numbers of NGOs

• NGOs are more charity and service delivery functioned

• Few and early NGOs are empowered and got support from foreign aids but not all. Most of NGOs are lacking technical, material and financial capacities.

Thanks for your attention