Millennium Project Planning Committee

Real-Time Delphi 2016

Day 2 (July 22)

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5

Reduce organized religions power

Reduce nuclear proliferation

US-China long-range goal

Increase human intelligence and wisdom

Non-military methods for dealing with organized extremists

SMAC and Big Data

Strategy Scenarios 2030 to Counter TOC

Cyberterrorism reduction

“Black Swan” search

Public role in reducing SIMAD threat

Ideas to reduce urban traffic

New forms of governance in a multi-polar social media world

Smart Cities of the Future

Variables that indicate well-being, etc.

National and global anti-corruption strategies

Just in Time Resilience Systems for Extreme Events

Global Demography 2050: Strategic Implications

Future of Anticipatory Governance

The future of work

Global Futures Research Priorities (2014-15)

MP Priorities (in addition to work/tech)

Stop new research and focus on re-establishinga more sustainable financial future for MP:

• Resume corporate sponsorship briefings; write proposals; enter contests; encourage Nodes’ to promote sales of GFIS, SOF reports, FRM, and Futures, and create a fund-raising kit that all Node Chairs and Node Members can use.

• Yes fundraise, but self-defeating to stop new research; don’t turn into a consulting company to support growth

• It is not suitable that the Nodes benefit, but see little responsibility for funding MP. • Use MP martial to address the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals• Teams of Nodes of similar backgrounds to respond to research calls – request for proposals• Promote GFIS rather than side-actions• Re-package MP work (year 3000 scenarios, etc.) as series of publications (use lulu.com, create-

space)• Create a dedicated team, workshop, and business plan• Produce MP conferences for income, dissemination, and public relations.• Short videos of key people showing benefits of using MP materials

Create On-line Courses on Global Futures Concepts and Methods• MOOCs should be the creation of Nodes, with MP providing input• A source of funds for both Nodes and MP in general• Needs dedicated autonomous unit and offer MP certificate if standards met• Be more creative that the AZ course, state-of-the-art learning systems• Team with a university, MOOC platform (Coursera, UDACITY), and/or other

advanced learning systems• Both local Node courses and central/international MP courses• Record courses and offer for sale• World Bank Institute’s MOOCs on Conflict, Fragility and Violence is brilliantly

organized, with video lectures, presentations, case studies.

Conduct GFIS training programs

• Monthly sessions for MP and subscribers, but two times for global time differences and record for later on-demand use

• Just announce a time and a date and do it • Node Chairs and Members trained first, then they train others• GFIS is intuitive and generally user friendly, focus on getting people to use it.• Teaching-by-doing, e.g., how the xx aspect of the GFIS affects your region?• Useful for checking understandings• We need part-time top JavaScript writer to keep in evolving• Put in YouTube – on-demand training – YouTube video GFIS for Dummies• Make it one of the MP Online courses• Engage each others’ scanning systems, GFIS advantage is geographic diversity

Upgrade National Foresight Capacities

1) National SOFI, 2) President/Prime Minister's future strategy units, 3) national State of the Future (SOF) reports, 4) national collective intelligence systems, 5) tele-nation platform, 6) permanent parliamentary Committees on the Future, 7) in-person and tele-university courses)

• Why haven’t we been more successful at this? (Leon Fuerth’s Anticipatory Governance story) https://www.gwu.edu/~igis/assets/docs/working_papers/Anticipatory_Governance_Practical_Upgrades.pdf

• Video of the benefits of GFIS, SOF, SOFI, FRM, futures courses• Create Generic proposal Node chairs can adopt to their country• Focus on Parliaments like Finland• Integrate national government and political representatives within Nodes

Conduct online weekly or monthly separate video conferences for each of the 15 Global Challenges, different topics, and/or monthly review of scanning items added in GFIS.

• Video engages more people than print• Individual Node Chairs can initiate (without an immense pile of emails) using GFIS Hangout• Top names in each Challenge leads relevant challenge (GFIS Reviewers per Challenge)• Identify chair for each Challenge who initiates video conferences• A different Challenge each month – engage universities • Make short videos on each challenge, MP YouTube, use webinar platform, use different

languages• Video conference on a suddenly emerging globally or regionally important problem, like BREXIT• Region video conferences a well (RIBR and FEN?)• Coordinate with Node Chairs• Node Chairs select most important scanning items for monthly discussion/report on implications

(new product?)• Record GFIS training video

In Addition to (2014-15) 19 Suggestions The top rated priority was the Future of Work, which is already ongoing. Among the other top-rated priorities, pending funding were: Future of Anticipatory Governance; Global Demography 2050: Strategic Implications; Just in Time Resilience Systems for Extreme Events; national and global anti-corruption strategies; variables that indicate well-being, and Smart Cities of the Future. However, over the past year, new more important research priorities may have come to mind:• Make a special book of the three future Work/Tech 2050 Global Scenarios• Continue to work on an Integrated Global Set of High Impact Strategies• Publish some of the research as books with new distribution channels like FastFuture Publishing;

local/national implications of previous global futures research. • New Paradigm of Economic Theory; New Economic Models; Futures Consciousness• Alignment of MP’s 15 Global Challenges with UN’s Sustainable Development Goals• 2050 futures of international security and hybrid security (physical, digital and virtual) • Implications for health of advances in digital technology. • Next Steps for Humanity; construct 4 scenarios for sustainable future by 2050

Elements for creating future (5 to 10 year) directions for The Millennium Project

What accomplishments are the most important?

1. State of the Future reports 4.42

2. Framework for Understanding Global Change (15 Global Challenges) 4.343. State of the Future Index 4.284. Evolution of the Real-Time Delphi 4.285. Nodes to connect global/local perspectives in global futures research 4.196. Demonstrating that global futures research is possible 4.097. Establishment of and synergies among network of Nodes 3.938. Production of Futures Research Methodology (FRM 1.0-3.0) 3.909. Invest in what replaces you in the Work/Tech 2050 Scenarios 3.8010. “Environmental Security” on the world’s agenda, Environmental Security Units and policy in most major militaries, UN status of forces agreements, and others

3.78

11. Creating the first global collective intelligence system on the future (GFIS) 3.6612. SIMAD (Single Individual Massively Destructive) 3.65

What new concepts or ideas developed by MP are the most important?

1. Framework for Understanding Global Change (15 Global Challenges) 5.00

2. Nodes to connect global/local perspectives in global futures research 4.13

3. Invest in what replaces you in the Work/Tech 2050 Scenarios 3.77

4. SIMAD (Single Individual Massively Destructive) 3.70

5. Alternative to GDP Index for evaluating future change (SOFI) 3.63

6. TransInstitution as a new category of organizations 3.16

7. Time-share holy sites in the Middle East Peace Scenarios 2.91

8. Tele-Nations (connecting those overseas with the development process back home) 2.86

Management Transition/Succession

• Executive Committee or Council of part-time volunteers that makes the transition: Elizabeth, Director of Research and Web Master; Ibon, Director of Node Synergies;

Cornelia, New Business Development; Jose, Director of Future Concepts; Blaz, Director of TransInstitutional Relations; Wes Boyer, and GFIS Web Master, but who should be the COO and/or CEO

Suggestions received last year for CEO: Dave Rejeski, Paul Werbos, Charles Perrottet, Jack Gottsman, and Peter Rzeszotarski.

Additional suggestions this year: Joe Biden, Jose Cordeiro, Cornelia Daheim, Elizabeth Florescu, Barry Hughes, Hughes de Jouvenel, Michio Kaku, Kurzweil, Hazel Henderson

• Send out a request for proposals (vision and financial sustainable plan to achieve it)• Create a Nominating/Search Committee• MP Executive Committee of Sirkka Heinonen, Sergio Bitar, Lionel Fernandez, Paul Werbos.• Have both a CEO and Deputy CEO

Additional Comments

Distillations:• Build on MP’s unique niche in futures research by build a roadmap(s) to positive

future with integrated global strategies• Align the 15 Global Challenges in some way with the UN 17 Sustainable

Development Goals• Ten new national SOFIs in the next then years• Next management: add communications/marketing professional or partnership• MP recognized as the best creating a collective intelligence system and should

be used as model for many others international non-profit organizations• State of the Future has too much on the present, needs more future