Limits to the futureby Bengt-Arne Vedin professor emeritus,

bengt-arne.vedin@telia.com

Experiences from future studiesLessons from a limitless past

The best is to failif a dire forecast:

beneficially self-destructing

Transcend the obvious

Markets, technology = obvious concerns But in addition perhaps, f ex, competency

calling for nerds/geeks working long hours but odd ones

’odd’ behavior: wild music, informal dress = how recruit, how motivate, selection criteria

So: values do changeboth inside an organization

AND affecting market & social behavior

So describing & understanding values offer great potential

Remember human qualities

E g, no Moore’s law for our attention ’New’ (pseudo-) Maslowian scales

Forecast concernsForecasts to 7 decimal places hokey

Mysterious, sometimes in-exact labels(ex the XYZ society)

Too many forecasts = several conflicting?Irregularities may signal important change looming

Single forecasts reasonable

–– But their sum may outcrowdpeople

marketssociety

+ Systems move at different speedsenergy systems ≠ dress fashion

Singular forecastreasonable as such -

but WHENPrepare for several outcomes, routes

alternativesw/ scenarios

’futuribles’

But in addition to ’when’HOW

Order of events crucialResults path dependent

Increasing marginal returns possible

Catastrophe, path dependent:An attempt to go from A to B is harmonious but the way

from A over C results in a drastic fall, a discontinuityIll. Gull-May Holst

Trendsvs. countertrends

Fast food – deli Molecular cuisine – bio-wine

Weak/Early signalsInflection points

Upcoming restrictions

TrajectoriesLinear

Exponential= Power laws

w/ limits ’biological’

laws of nature’normal’ distribution no normalstandard deviation no standard

Collect, match different future studies

They portray today’s concerns Whose concerns (competition, politicians,…)

… thus pix of tomorrow

Actions!?- Organize future studies thematically and relations-wise

- Qualify/quantify relations to possible macroeconomics & ’futuribles’

- Create incentives for front-line people to report on change signals

- Establish prediction markets for emerging demands & technology