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Data to capture those at risk of exclusion
Mihail PeleahUNDP Istanbul Regional Hub
Promoting Job Rich and Sustainable Growth in Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine,
Tbilisi, Georgia, 29 October 2015
Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.
(George E. P. Box)
Income Inequality Gini 32 Income Inequality Gini 33
Social inequality 29 Social inequality 7
Availability – Status – Perception
Ukraine, 2010
63.7
8.124.6
Azerbaijan Armenia Belarus Georgia Moldova Ukraine Singapore0
10
20
30
40
50
60Income inequalityAverage call for income equalityActive call for income equality
Own calculations based on Regional Human Development Report, 2011
Lee Kwan Yew “[our goal is] to give every citizen a stake in the country and its future.”
Drivers of social exclusionSpecific local conditions
Social exclusion status
Individual characteristics
interact with
in context of
…and result inStructures and institutions; values and behavior patterns; policiesDrivers are external factors, influenced by legacies, that either speed up or slow down the process of individual vulnerabilities turning into social exclusion
(social exclusion risk factors), like poor education, disability, minority status
Predominant industry, single or multiple employment opportunities, local infrastructures, history of violent conflict or environmental disaster
of the individual in three dimensions—exclusion from economic life, social services, and civic and social participation
Social Exclusion Chain
Different combinations of individual risks and local context results in different levels of social exclusion
Average
Capital or economic center
Small town
Village
Average risk of exclusion in the region hides significant territorial differences…
Individual vulnerabilities (like disability) interact with local
conditions and amplify exclusion
Disabled doesn’t mean automatically excluded!
Local conditions matter
Source: RHDR “Beyond Transition: Toward Inclusive Societies”, 2011
Corruption: Supply and Tolerance
Attitudes matter
Cycles of exclusion
Secondary Source Contextualization
Survey
Administrative datasets
Statistical databases
Local economy matters
Serbia: Social Exclusion andHealth
Serbia: Social Exclusion and Education
Serbia: Social Exclusion and Employment
Different combinations of individual risks, drivers and local context results in different levels of social exclusion
If you are young person, with low education, living in village, with single company—you face high risk of exclusion
…and secondary education doesn’t help much in these conditions…
…while vibrant business environment makes a lot of difference
…economic centers offer more opportunities (even with low education)
…and much more if you are educated
++
++ + +
Source: RHDR “Beyond Transition: Toward Inclusive Societies”, 2011
Inclusion gain due to education
Inclusion gain due to business environment
Jeeps and Sheeps• Cluster of stories re:
– Communities– Revenues– Source of incomes– Limitations of income or business activities
• Dig into the stories– Jeep tours were organized to protected areas– …but they raise dust clouds– …which spoil milk, the raw material for cheese– …cheese is major local commodity and source of incomes
• Solution– Move jeep trail 500 m from village
Thanks to Borko Vulikic [email protected] for this case
