COST AND LIVES SAVINGS ANALYSIS IF

THE PASSENGER HELMET LAW IS PASSED

AND ENFORCED IN 2014

CONTENTS

Purpose of analysis

Research and timeframe

Methodology

Findings

Public Support

Recommendations

PURPOSE OF ANALYSIS

To research estimates of the costs and lives saved by 2020 if the passenger helmet law is passed and

enforced in 2014.

RESEARCH AND TIMEFRAME

• Researcher: Asia Injury Prevention Foundation

The model was adapted from those used in

public health by the U.S CDC

• Timeframe: Four months

METHODOLOGY

Source of data and references

• Cambodia National Road Safety Action Plan for 2011 – 2020

• RCVIS report, Annual Reports from 2008-2012: Road crashes and casualties in Cambodia.

• Liu et al., “Helmets for Preventing Injury in Motorcycle Riders”

• World Health Organization, Global Status Report on Road Safety 2013

• 2013 bi-monthly helmet observation,Handicap International

• Analysis of Costs of Road Crashes report in Cambodia by ADB and updated in 2011 by Handicap International

• Consumer Price Index Data, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for 2014

METHODOLOGY (cont.)

The cost savings were calculated based on the figures

from Asia Development Bank (ADB) and updated in 2011 by

Handicap International.

Model for calculating number of head injuries prevented:

y2 = (f) x (g x h x j x e)

Model for calculating number of lives saved:

y1=(f) x (a x b x c x d x e)

METHODOLOGY (cont.)

a = Projected number of RTFs. Values of “a” were calculated by the

Institute of Road Safety Research (SWOV), The Netherlands, and used for

developing the Cambodia National Road Safety Action Plan 2011-2020

Model for calculating number of lives saved:

y1=(f) x (a x b x c x d x e)

f = % of all motorcycle crash-related fatalities that are

passengers

b = % of road traffic fatalities that are motorcyclists

c = % of motorcycle fatality crashes that result in head injuries

Values of f, b, c obtained from the average figures of RCVIS

reports from 2008 to 2012

METHODOLOGY (cont.)

Model for calculating number of lives saved:

y1=(f) x (a x b x c x d x e)

d = % reduction in likelihood of death by effect of wearing

motorcycle helmet. Value of “d” obtained from the

Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. d = 42%

e = projected % increase in passenger helmet use

METHODOLOGY (cont.)

Model for calculating number of lives saved:

y1=(f) x (a x b x c x d x e)

METHODOLOGY (cont.)

Model for calculating number of head injuries prevented:

y2 = (f) x (g x h x j x e)

f = % of all motorcycle crash-related fatalities that are passengers

g = 20 x (a x b) : Estimated number of non-fatal motorcycle-related

traffic injuries (according WHO Global Status Report on Road

Safety 2013, the fatality to injury ratio is 1 to 20)

Model for calculating N. of head injuries prevented:

y2 = (f) x (g x h x j x e)

h = % of non-fatal motorcycle crash-related injuries that are head injuries. Values of h obtained from the average figures of RCVIS reports from 2008 to 2012

j = % by which motorcycle helmets have been shown to reduce the risk of head injury. Value of j obtained from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. j = 69%

e = Projected % increase in passenger helmet use

METHODOLOGY (cont.)

METHODOLOGY (cont.)

Calculation took into

consideration:

• Property damage,

administration costs,

• Lost output, medical

and human costs

The cost savings were calculated based on the

figures from Asia Development Bank (ADB) and updated in

2011 by Handicap International.

FINDINGS

If the passenger helmet law is

passed in 2014 and effectively

enforced:

• 561 lives will be saved;

• 10,574 head injuries

will be prevented; and

• USD 98,618,422 will be

saved by 2020

FINDINGS (cont.)

Year

Passeng

-er

helmet

use

Increase

in

passenger

helmet

use

Est,

lives

saved

Est, head

injuries

prevented

Cost ($USD)

savings for

fatalities

Cost ($USD)

savings for

injuries

Total cost

($USD)

savings

2015 55% 48% 61 1,152 2,668,563 8,079,457 10,748,020

2016 60% 53% 72 1,362 3,141,045 9,550,209 12,691,255

2017 65% 58% 85 1,600 3,708,178 11,221,272 14,929,450

2018 70% 63% 99 1,864 4,318,937 13,071,590 17,390,527

2019 75% 68% 114 2,148 4,973,322 15,064,114 20,037,436

2020 80% 73% 130 2,446 5,671,332 17,150,403 22,821,735

Total 561 10,574 24,481,377 74,137,045 98,618,422

PUBLIC SUPPORT

Approximately 98% of survey respondents and 97% of parents support a mandatory helmet law for passengers and children respectively.

Over 6,000 people have signed petitions to show their support for a universal passenger helmet law since January 2013.

An estimated 10,000 pledges have been obtained showing support for the swift enactment of the passenger helmet law.

PUBLIC SUPPORT (cont.)

Over 100 stakeholders from the private sector, civil society, and international community have endorsed the joint policy recommendation.

Submitted to H.E Minister of Public Works and Transport and a senior representative from National Police in January 2013. The statement was later co-issued by Handicap International and Coalition for Road Safety (CRY).

Joint Statement: Motorcycle Passengers, Including Children, Must Wear Helmets

RECOMMENDATIONS

For media: Advocate for and mobilize public support for the enactment of laws that mandate helmets for motorcycle passengers, including children.

For government: Approve the draft law and implement further enforcement and intervention to reach the national target on helmet use by 2020.

For civil society organizations: Intensive advocacy activities for the passenger helmet law to be passed and then enforced as soon as possible.

RESULT

New Traffic Law: A new traffic law mandating helmets for motorcycle passengers, including children, has been approved by the national assembly, signed by the King and announced in public by the Ministry of Public Works and Transport.

National Passenger Helmet Enforcement Action Plan: AIP Foundation works closely with the General Commissariat of the National Police, Provincial Police to develop the Passenger Helmet Enforcement Action Plan for national and district levels.

RESULT

New Sub-degree on Fines: To ensure the new traffic law enforcement is implemented smoothly and effectively, a new sub-degree on fines was developed by the National Road Safety Committee and approved by the Government.

New Law Enforcement: An official announcement from the General Commissariat of the National Police, with commitment from the Government started enforcing from January 2015.

THANK YOU

AIP Foundation Cambodia Office#18BEo, Street 348, Sangkat Toul Svay Prey I, Khan Chamkamorn, Phnom Penh,

Kingdom of CambodiaEmail: pagna.kim@aipf-cambodia.org