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Climate Change Research Needs: Sectoral Impact Analysis, Vulnerability &
Risk Assessment
Rosa T. Perez, Ph. D.
Member, NPTE
Climate Change Commission
LCCAP Orientation Meeting with SUCs16 March 2017
Recto Room, Senate of the Philippines
NPTE Priority R&D Topics for 20171. Common DRR-CCA Methodology.
2. Climate change modeling at regional and national level (town/level)
3. Attribution of impacts to anthropogenic climate change
4. Sectoral and integrated impact studies and risk and vulnerability assessments (national, riverbasin/island-wide, local)– Heat/drought- and flood- resistant crops –
– Freshwater enhancement technology
– Climate change and human security
– Water, energy and carbon.
– Climate Resiliency of local communities in different ecosystems
– Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Hydro-meteorological Hazards–
NPTE Priority R&D Topics for 2017
7. Risk-sharing mechanisms– Index-Based Insurance–
8. Solar Radiation Management –9. Coastal & Oceanic Adaptation : Science &
Technology Research Instruction Development Education
10.Science-based blue economy (BEST H2O STEWARDS)
The Basic Adaptation Planning Process
• The systematic process deals with all questions relevant for planning adaptation.
• Going one step at a time avoids mental blocks due to the over-complex challenge.
Four steps:
(1) Assess Risk/Impacts/Vulnerability
(2) Identify adaptation options
(3) Select adaptation measures
(4) Develop an M&E framework
Stressors: Climate variability and change
State of the system concern
Harm to the system
Generic Scheme
SensitivitySusceptibility
Adaptive Capacity
IPCC AR4
Exposure
VulnerabilityV=f(E,S,AC)
Exposure
Vulnerability
Hazard
Impact/Risk
R=f(H E V)
IPCC AR5
Reconciling Vulnerability and Risk
Defining adaptation
Greenhouse gas emissions
Climate change impacts
Global climate change: change in mean global temperature, changes in regional temperature, rainfall, pressure, circulation,
etc.
Mitigation: reduce emissions, reducing magnitude of CC
Adaptation: reduce vulnerability to CC impacts, reduce losses
Adjustments in human and natural systems, in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, that moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities.
Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies
Source: UNDP
In reality, adaptation stands for a continuum of approaches. Often, ‘adaptation’ activities are linked
to more than one category
1Addressing Drivers
of Vulnerability
2Building Response
Capacity
3Managing Climate
Risk
4Confronting Climate
Change
Increase individual and community buffer
Build robust systems for problem-solving
Make use of climate information in decision-making
Respond directly to CC- related threats
Risk of maladaptation
Risk of maladaptation
Outside the development comfort zone
VulnerabilityFocus
ImpactFocus
A continuum from development to climate change
Need for Climate Information
Normal Development
Direct Adaptation Measures
Types of adaptation efforts
• “Serendipitous” Adaptation– Activities undertaken to achieve development
objectives incidentally achieve adaptation objectives. – The adaptation components of a given activity may be
noticed or emphasized only after the fact.
• Climate-Proofing of Ongoing Development Efforts– Activities added to an ongoing development initiative
to ensure its success under a changing climate. – Adaptation serves as means to achieve development
ends.
Types of adaptation efforts
• Discrete Adaptation– Activities undertaken specifically to achieve climate
adaptation objectives. – Development activities as means to achieve
adaptation ends.
• Confronting Climate Change– Actions focus almost exclusively on addressing
impacts associated with climate change• typically targeting climate risks that are clearly outside
historic climate variability• little bearing on risks that stem from anything other than
anthropogenic climate change
Framing Adaptation
1Addressing Drivers
of Vulnerability
2Building Response
Capacity
3Managing Climate
Risk
4Confronting Climate
Change
Increase individual and community buffer
Build robust systems for problem-solving
Make use of climate information in decision-making
Respond directly to CC- related threats
ExampleDiversification of livelihood strategies in areas vulnerable to flooding
ExampleParticipatory reforestation in the watershed to combat flood-induced landslide
Teaching farmers to collect climate data and integrate it into their planting decisions
Managing coral reefs in response to widespread coral bleaching
VulnerabilityFocus
ImpactFocus
Need for Climate Information
“Cascading” impacts of climate change from physical climate through ecosystems on
people can now be detected along chains of evidence.
Climate Change Impact Chains
Climate Change
Source: Adelphi/EURAC 2014.
Impacts on Ecosystems
(groundwater recharge, availability
of fertile soil and biodiversity)
Impacts on Ecosystem Services
(provision of food and water)
Impacts on Natural Resource Extraction
(agriculture, fishery, forestry)
Impacts on Natural Resource Processing
(industry and services)
Impacts on the Social Sphere
(individual, societal groups)
CC impacts on ecosystem
services and natural resources
directly affect people’s livelihoods
in developing countries
Changing
temperatures
& rainfall
Philippines
REGION 8
PROVINCEEastern Samar
Borongan City
ARCs
ADAPTATION MEASURES
• Improve coco-cropping system (e.g. introduction of livestock, forage)
• Replanting using disease and climate-resistant variety
• Pest control• Cover copping/mulching to conserve
soil moisture• Value-adding of coco products
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
POTENTIAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT
• Loss of crops and properties due to flooding
• copra production yield• household income
POTENTIAL BIOPHYSICAL IMPACT
• Excessive rainfall causing diseases of the fruit and leaves
• Die-off from water-logging
• Desiccation of fronds and shedding of young nuts from drought
• Increasing incidence of pest and diseases
• Uprooted, fallen trees from severe storm winds
• Yield variability
System of Interest
SOCIETY
CLIMATE STIMULUS*
• Seasonal mean temperature
• Drier dry season (drought), wetter wet season (floods)
• intensity and frequency of heavy rains
CC Impact Chain for Coconut Farming
ARC Coco Producing Households
Coconut Production
Exposure
Potential Impact Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability
Sensitivity
High vulnerability of small coconut farms and coco-producing farmers
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY• Agri-business potential• Xx km of farm roads• Limited training for coco
farming technologies • Farmers associations exist• ESSU can provide TA