CRFB.org

CRFB.org

Debt Under Candidates’ Proposals (Percent of GDP)

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

Trump Range

Clinton Range

Clinton Central Estimate

Trump Central Estimate

Current Law

127%

87%

Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

2

CRFB.org

$1.20 $1.40$0.05

-$0.25

-$10.50

-$0.65

$1.70

-$11.50

-$14

-$12

-$10

-$8

-$6

-$4

-$2

$0

$2

$4Revenue Primary Spending Interest Surplus/Deficit (-)

Clinton Trump

Ten-Year Change in Fiscal Metrics Under Our Central Estimates (Trillions)

Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

3

CRFB.org

18.1% 18.6%

13.6%

4.0% 4.1%

9.0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Revenue Spending Interest Deficit

Current Law Clinton’s Proposals Trump’s Proposals

Ten-Year Spending, Revenue, and Deficits Under Our Central Estimates (Percent of GDP)

Source: CRFB calculations, CBO projections.Note: Spending and revenue calculations are based on CBO’s 10-year projection of cumulative GDP between 2017-2026

22.1% 22.5%22.7%

4

CRFB.org

Key Findings Under Central Estimates for Each Candidate (2017-2026)

5

Read the Paper Here

CRFB.org

Details of Their Plans

6

CRFB.org

Summary of Candidates’ Policy Proposals (Cost/Savings (-))

+<0.5%

7

Read the Paper for More Details about Their Plans

CRFB.org

The Candidates, Side by Side

8

CRFB.org

Interest Is Fastest Growing Category Under Both Candidates

22%44%

84% 93%

276% 280%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

450%

DiscretionarySpending

All OtherMandatory

SocialSecurity

Health Care Interest ClintonInterest

TrumpInterest

Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office projections.

445%Percent Change 2015 to 2026

9

CRFB.org

What Would It Take to Get Debt Under Control?

10

CRFB.org

Attaining Fiscal Sustainability Under the Candidates’ Plans

6%

27%

15%

37%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Clinton Trump

Cuts Needed

2.9%

5.4%4.7%

10.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Clinton Trump

Growth Needed

+3.5%

+17.5%

+8.5%

+20.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Clinton Trump

Tax Hikes Needed

Percentage Point Tax IncreasePercent Cut in 10-Year Spending Annual Real GDP Growth

Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

Stabilize the Debt Balance the Budget

Projected Growth: 2.1%

CRFB.org

Real Economic Growth Rate Needed Under Our Central Estimates (Annual Average Real GDP Growth)

2.3%

4.6%

2.9%

5.4%4.7%

10.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump

Current Projected Growth: 2.1%

Source: CRFB calculations based on dynamic feedback projections from Tax Foundation for revenue and CBO for immigration reform and ACA repeal. | *We assumed growth sufficient to maintain currently law debt-to-GDP ratio of 86 percent by 2026, although nominal debt levels will still increase. | Note: For stabilize the debt, we assumed $2.6 trillion of non-interest savings relative to current law (the equivalent of $2.9 trillion with interest), enough based on current GDP projections to achieve a debt-to-GDP ratio of 75 percent by 2026. For balance the budget, we assumed $7.8 trillion of deficit reduction over 10 years to account for interest.

Pay for Proposals* Stabilize the Debt Balance the Budget

12

CRFB.org

Spending Cuts Needed Under Our Central Estimates(Percent of All 10-Year Primary Spending)

< 1%

22%

6%

27%

15%

37%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump

Pay for Proposals Stabilize the Debt Balance the Budget

Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office projections. For stabilize the debt, we assumed $2.6 trillion of non-interest savings relative to current law (the equivalent of $2.9 trillion with interest), enough based on current GDP projections to achieve a debt-to-GDP ratio of 75 percent by 2026. For balance the budget, we assumed $6.8 trillion of non-interest savings over a decade relative to current law (the equivalent of $7.8 trillion with interest), enough to balance the budget using the path from the 2015 House Budget Resolution. The actual 10-year savings to balance could differ substantially based on how policies are implemented.

CRFB.org

Spending Cuts Needed, Exempting Social Security & Medicare, Under Our Central Estimates

(Percent of 10-Year Primary Spending, Excluding Social Security & Medicare)

< 1%

39%

11%

50%

28%

67%

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump

Pay for Proposals Stabilize the Debt Balance the Budget

Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office projections. For stabilize the debt, we assumed $2.6 trillion of non-interest savings relative to current law (the equivalent of $2.9 trillion with interest), enough based on current GDP projections to achieve a debt-to-GDP ratio of 75 percent by 2026. For balance the budget, we assumed $6.8 trillion of non-interest savings over a decade relative to current law (the equivalent of $7.8 trillion with interest), enough to balance the budget using the path from the 2015 House Budget Resolution. The actual 10-year savings to balance could differ substantially based on how policies are implemented.

CRFB.org

<25.5%22.5%

28.5% 27.5%

33.5%30.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump

Tax Rate Needed Assuming Across-the-Board Hikes Under Our Central Estimates (Percentage Point Tax Rate, Individual Making $50,000)

Pay For Proposals Stabilize the Debt Balance the Budget

Source: CRFB calculations of statutory marginal income tax rate for an individual with $50,000 in adjusted gross income. Option assumes equal percentage point increase in every tax bracket, but no change in liability for Trump’s “zero tax bracket” (individuals making under $25k, couples under $50k).

Candidate Policy Increasing Rates Across the Board to Hit Target

+17.5%

+8.5%

+20.5%

+12.5%+<0.5%

+3.5%

15

CRFB.org

Tax Increases on High Earners Needed Under Our Central Estimates (Percentage Point Tax Rate, Individuals Making over $5 million)

Pay For Proposals Stabilize the Debt Balance the Budget

Source: CRFB calculations of statutory marginal income tax rate for an individual with $5 million in adjusted gross income. Note: “high earners” includes all those making above $250,000. Option assumes equal percentage point increase in tax brackets above 33 percent (roughly $231,000 for a couple in 2016).

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump

45%

64%

IMP

OSS

IBLE

IMP

OSS

IBLE

IMP

OSS

IBLE

IMP

OSS

IBLE

Candidate Policy Increasing Rate on High Earners to Hit Target

+1%

+20%

CRFB.org

Additional Tables and Graphs

17

CRFB.org

Summary of Hillary Clinton’s

Major Campaign Proposals

14

CRFB.org

Summary of Donald Trump’s Major

Campaign Proposals

16

CRFB.org

College Education

$350 billion

Early Ed & Child Care$200 billion

OtherSpending

$250 billion

Infrastructure$300 billion

Paid Leave$300 billion

Composition of Clinton’s New Spending Under Our Central Estimate (Billions)

Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

20

CRFB.org

Individual Statutory Tax Rates Under Candidates’ Plans

Statutory marginal ordinary income tax rates for a married couple filing jointly. Includes the standard deduction and personal exemption. Sources: IRS, Trump campaign, Clinton campaign, CRFB calculations

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

$0 $50k $100k $150k $200k $250k $300k $350k $400k $450k $500k $5M $5.05M

Current Law

Clinton's Tax Plan

Trump's Tax Plan

21

CRFB.org

Read the full report, Promises and Price Tags, at CRFB.org

22